Geospatial environmental data modelling applications using remote sensing, GIS and spatial statistics

This thesis presents novel modelling applications for environmental geospatial data using remote sensing, GIS and statistical modelling techniques. The studied themes can be classified into four main themes: (i) to develop advanced geospatial databases. Paper (I) demonstrates the creation of a geospatial database for the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Åland Islands, south-western Finland; (ii) to analyse species diversity and distribution using GIS techniques. Paper (II) presents a diversity and geographical distribution analysis for Scopulini moths at a world-wide scale; (iii) to study spatiotemporal forest cover change. Paper (III) presents a study of exotic and indigenous tree cover change detection in Taita Hills Kenya using airborne imagery and GIS analysis techniques; (iv) to explore predictive modelling techniques using geospatial data. In Paper (IV) human population occurrence and abundance in the Taita Hills highlands was predicted using the generalized additive modelling (GAM) technique. Paper (V) presents techniques to enhance fire prediction and burned area estimation at a regional scale in East Caprivi Namibia. Paper (VI) compares eight state-of-the-art predictive modelling methods to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping in East Caprivi Namibia. The results in Paper (I) showed that geospatial data can be managed effectively using advanced relational database management systems. Metapopulation data for Melitaea cinxia butterfly was successfully combined with GPS-delimited habitat patch information and climatic data. Using the geospatial database, spatial analyses were successfully conducted at habitat patch level or at more coarse analysis scales. Moreover, this study showed it appears evident that at a large-scale spatially correlated weather conditions are one of the primary causes of spatially correlated changes in Melitaea cinxia population sizes. In Paper (II) spatiotemporal characteristics of Socupulini moths description, diversity and distribution were analysed at a world-wide scale and for the first time GIS techniques were used for Scopulini moth geographical distribution analysis. This study revealed that Scopulini moths have a cosmopolitan distribution. The majority of the species have been described from the low latitudes, sub-Saharan Africa being the hot spot of species diversity. However, the taxonomical effort has been uneven among biogeographical regions. Paper III showed that forest cover change can be analysed in great detail using modern airborne imagery techniques and historical aerial photographs. However, when spatiotemporal forest cover change is studied care has to be taken in co-registration and image interpretation when historical black and white aerial photography is used. In Paper (IV) human population distribution and abundance could be modelled with fairly good results using geospatial predictors and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. Moreover, land cover layer is not necessary needed as a predictor because first and second-order image texture measurements derived from satellite imagery had more power to explain the variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. Paper V showed that generalized linear model (GLM) is a suitable technique for fire occurrence prediction and for burned area estimation. GLM based burned area estimations were found to be more superior than the existing MODIS burned area product (MCD45A1). However, spatial autocorrelation of fires has to be taken into account when using the GLM technique for fire occurrence prediction. Paper VI showed that novel statistical predictive modelling techniques can be used to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping at a regional scale. However, some noticeable variation between different predictive modelling techniques for fire occurrence prediction and burned area estimation existed.

Environmental change and anthropogenic impact on lake sediments during the Holocene in the Finnish - Karelian inland area

This thesis discusses the prehistoric human disturbance during the Holocene by means of case studies using detailed high-resolution pollen analysis from lake sediment. The four lakes studied are situated between 61o 40' and 61o 50' latitudes in the Finnish Karelian inland area and vary between 2.4 and 28.8 ha in size. The existence of Early Metal Age population was one important question. Another study question concerned the development of grazing, and the relationship between slash-and-burn cultivation and permanent field cultivation. The results were presented as pollen percentages and pollen concentrations (grains cm 3). Accumulation values (grains cm 2 yr 1) were calculated for Lake Nautajärvi and Lake Orijärvi sediment, where the sediment accumulation rate was precisely determined. Sediment properties were determined using loss-on-ignition (LOI) and magnetic susceptibility (k). Dating methods used include both conventional and AMS 14C determinations, paleomagnetic dating and varve choronology. The isolation of Lake Kirjavalampi on the northern shore of Lake Ladoga took place ca. 1460 1300 BC. The long sediment cores from Finland, Lake Kirkkolampi and Lake Orijärvi in southeastern Finland and Lake Nautajärvi in south central Finland all extended back to the Early Holocene and were isolated from the Baltic basin ca. 9600 BC, 8600 BC and 7675 BC, respectively. In the long sediment cores, the expansion of Alnus was visible between 7200 - 6840 BC. The spread of Tilia was dated in Lake Kirkkolampi to 6600 BC, in Lake Orijärvi to 5000 BC and at Lake Nautajärvi to 4600 BC. Picea is present locally in Lake Kirkkolampi from 4340 BC, in Lake Orijärvi from 6520 BC and in Lake Nautajärvi from 3500 BC onwards. The first modifications in the pollen data, apparently connected to anthropogenic impacts, were dated to the beginning of the Early Metal Period, 1880 1600 BC. Anthropogenic activity became clear in all the study sites by the end of the Early Metal Period, between 500 BC AD 300. According to Secale pollen, slash-and-burn cultivation was practised around the eastern study lakes from AD 300 600 onwards, and at the study site in central Finland from AD 880 onwards. The overall human impact, however, remained low in the studied sites until the Late Iron Age. Increasing human activity, including an increase in fire frequency was detected from AD 800 900 onwards in the study sites in eastern Finland. In Lake Kirkkolampi, this included cultivation on permanent fields, but in Lake Orijärvi, permanent field cultivation became visible as late as AD 1220, even when the macrofossil data demonstrated the onset of cultivation on permanent fields as early as the 7th century AD. On the northern shore of Lake Ladoga, local activity became visible from ca. AD 1260 onwards and at Lake Nautajärvi, sediment the local occupation was traceable from 1420 AD onwards. The highest values of Secale pollen were recorded both in Lake Orijärvi and Lake Kirjavalampi between ca. AD 1700 1900, and could be associated with the most intensive period of slash-and-burn from AD 1750 to 1850 in eastern Finland.

Enhanced processing of SPOT multispectral satellite imagery for environmental monitoring and modelling

The Taita Hills in southeastern Kenya form the northernmost part of Africa’s Eastern Arc Mountains, which have been identified by Conservation International as one of the top ten biodiversity hotspots on Earth. As with many areas of the developing world, over recent decades the Taita Hills have experienced significant population growth leading to associated major changes in land use and land cover (LULC), as well as escalating land degradation, particularly soil erosion. Multi-temporal medium resolution multispectral optical satellite data, such as imagery from the SPOT HRV, HRVIR, and HRG sensors, provides a valuable source of information for environmental monitoring and modelling at a landscape level at local and regional scales. However, utilization of multi-temporal SPOT data in quantitative remote sensing studies requires the removal of atmospheric effects and the derivation of surface reflectance factor. Furthermore, for areas of rugged terrain, such as the Taita Hills, topographic correction is necessary to derive comparable reflectance throughout a SPOT scene. Reliable monitoring of LULC change over time and modelling of land degradation and human population distribution and abundance are of crucial importance to sustainable development, natural resource management, biodiversity conservation, and understanding and mitigating climate change and its impacts. The main purpose of this thesis was to develop and validate enhanced processing of SPOT satellite imagery for use in environmental monitoring and modelling at a landscape level, in regions of the developing world with limited ancillary data availability. The Taita Hills formed the application study site, whilst the Helsinki metropolitan region was used as a control site for validation and assessment of the applied atmospheric correction techniques, where multiangular reflectance field measurements were taken and where horizontal visibility meteorological data concurrent with image acquisition were available. The proposed historical empirical line method (HELM) for absolute atmospheric correction was found to be the only applied technique that could derive surface reflectance factor within an RMSE of < 0.02 ps in the SPOT visible and near-infrared bands; an accuracy level identified as a benchmark for successful atmospheric correction. A multi-scale segmentation/object relationship modelling (MSS/ORM) approach was applied to map LULC in the Taita Hills from the multi-temporal SPOT imagery. This object-based procedure was shown to derive significant improvements over a uni-scale maximum-likelihood technique. The derived LULC data was used in combination with low cost GIS geospatial layers describing elevation, rainfall and soil type, to model degradation in the Taita Hills in the form of potential soil loss, utilizing the simple universal soil loss equation (USLE). Furthermore, human population distribution and abundance were modelled with satisfactory results using only SPOT and GIS derived data and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. The SPOT derived LULC data was found to be unnecessary as a predictor because the first and second order image texture measurements had greater power to explain variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. The ability of the procedures to be implemented locally in the developing world using low-cost or freely available data and software was considered. The techniques discussed in this thesis are considered equally applicable to other medium- and high-resolution optical satellite imagery, as well the utilized SPOT data.

Bactrocera frauenfeldi (Diptera: Tephritidae), an invasive fruit fly in Australia that may have reached the extent of its spread due to environmental variables

Bactrocera frauenfeldi (Schiner), the ‘mango fruit fly’, is a horticultural pest originating from the Papua New Guinea region. It was first detected in Australia on Cape York Peninsula in north Queensland in 1974 and had spread to Cairns by 1994 and Townsville by 1997. Bactrocera frauenfeldi has not been recorded further south since then despite its invasive potential, an absence of any controls and an abundance of hosts in southern areas. Analysis of cue-lure trapping data from 1997 to 2012 in relation to environmental variables shows that the distribution of B. frauenfeldi in Queensland correlates to locations with a minimum temperature for the coldest month >13.2°C, annual temperature range <19.3°C, mean temperature of the driest quarter >20.2°C, precipitation of the wettest month >268 mm, precipitation of the wettest quarter >697 mm, temperature seasonality <30.9°C (i.e. lower temperature variability) and areas with higher human population per square kilometre. Annual temperature range was the most important variable in predicting this species' distribution. Predictive distribution maps based on an uncorrelated subset of these variables reasonably reflected the current distribution of this species in northern Australia and predicted other areas in the world potentially at risk from invasion by this species. This analysis shows that the distribution of B. frauenfeldi in Australia is correlated to certain environmental variables that have most likely limited this species' spread southward in Queensland. This is of importance to Australian horticulture in demonstrating that B. frauenfeldi is unlikely to establish in horticultural production areas further south than Townsville.

Interfuel substitution in Australia: A way forward to achieve environmental sustainability

This paper examines the possibilities for interfuel substitution in Australia in view of the need to shift towards a cleaner mix of fuels and technologies to meet future energy demand and environmental goals. The translog cost function is estimated for the aggregate economy, the manufacturing sector and its subsectors, and the electricity generation subsector. The advantages of this work over previous literature relating to the Australian case are that it uses relatively recent data, focuses on energy-intensive subsectors and estimates the Morishima elasticities of substitution. The empirical evidence shown herein indicates weak-form substitutability between different energy types, and higher possibilities for substitution at lower levels of aggregation, compared with the aggregate economy. For the electricity generation subsector, which is at the centre of the CO2 emissions problem in Australia, significant but weak substitutability exists between coal and gas when the price of coal changes. A higher substitution possibility exists between coal and oil in this subsector. The evidence for the own- and cross-price elasticities, together with the results for fuel efficiencies, indicates that a large increase in relative prices could be justified to further stimulate the market for low-emission technologies.

An Investigation of Environmental Conditions Experienced During the Life of High Value Wood Components and Products

Australian forest industries have a long history of export trade of a wide range of products from woodchips(for paper manufacturing), sandalwood (essential oils, carving and incense) to high value musical instruments, flooring and outdoor furniture. For the high value group, fluctuating environmental conditions brought on by changes in mperature and relative humidity, can lead to performance problems due to consequential swelling, shrinkage and/or distortion of the wood elements. A survey determined the types of value-added products exported, including species and dimensions packaging used and export markets. Data loggers were installed with shipments to monitor temperature and relative humidity conditions. These data were converted to timber equilibrium moisture content values to provide an indication of the environment that the wood elements would be acclimatising to. The results of the initial survey indicated that primary high value wood export products included guitars, flooring, decking and outdoor furniture. The destination markets were mainly located in the northern hemisphere, particularly the United States of America, China, Hong Kong, Europe including the United Kingdom), Japan, Korea and the Middle East. Other regions importing Australian-made wooden articles were south-east Asia, New Zealand and South Africa. Different timber species have differing rates of swelling and shrinkage, so the types of timber were also recorded during the survey. Results from this work determined that the major species were ash-type eucalypts from south-eastern Australia (commonly referred to in the market as Tasmanian oak), jarrah from Western Australia, spotted gum, hoop pine, white cypress, black butt, brush box and Sydney blue gum from Queensland and New South Wales. The environmental conditions data indicated that microclimates in shipping containers can fluctuate extensively during shipping. Conditions at the time of manufacturing were usually between 10 and 12% equilibrium moisture content, however conditions during shipping could range from 5 (very dry) to 20% (very humid). The packaging systems incorporated were reported to be efficient at protecting the wooden articles from damage during transit. The research highlighted the potential risk for wood components to ‘move’ in response to periods of drier or more humid conditions than those at the time of manufacturing, and the importance of engineering a packaging system that can account for the environmental conditions experienced in shipping containers. Examples of potential dimensional changes in wooden components were calculated based on published unit shrinkage data for key species and the climatic data returned from the logging equipment. The information highlighted the importance of good design to account for possible timber movement during shipping. A timber movement calculator was developed to allow designers to input component species, dimensions, site of manufacture and destination, to see validate their product design. This calculator forms part of the free interactive website www.timbers.com.au.

Effect of environmental stress of low pressure on tyrosine aminotransferase and phenylalanine 4-hydroxylase activities in the rat.

Tyrosine aminotransferase activity in the liver increased about fourfold after 9h, on exposure of rats to stress of low pressure. 2. The phenylalanine hydroxylase activity increased about 60% on exposure for 24h or more. 3. An environmental pressure decrease of about 0.033 MN/m2 is needed to increase the activity of tyrosine aminotransferase. 4. Adrenalectomy completely abolished the increase in activity of tyrosine aminotransferase obtained on exposure to low pressure. 5. Treatment with cycloheximide or actinomycin D prevented the increase in activity of tyrosine aminotransferase. 6. Treatment with cycloheximide at the early part of exposure to stress prevented the increase in activity of phenylalanine hydroxylase obtained after 24h.

Preventing infections through cleaner hospitals (PITCH): An environmental cleaning bundle

Translating the numerous lengthy cleaning standards and guidelines into meaningful and sustained improvements in cleaning practice is challenging. This research hypothesized that an evidence based cleaning bundle would improve cleaning performance, knowledge and attitudes, and ultimately reduces healthcare associated infections (HAI) in a way that is value for money. A bundle is a small, straightforward set of evidence based practices, that when performed collectively and reliably, improves patient outcomes.

Effects of environmental variation on ecological and evolutionary dynamics

Environmental variation is a fact of life for all the species on earth: for any population of any particular species, the local environmental conditions are liable to vary in both time and space. In today's world, anthropogenic activity is causing habitat loss and fragmentation for many species, which may profoundly alter the characteristics of environmental variation in remaining habitat. Previous research indicates that, as habitat is lost, the spatial configuration of remaining habitat will increasingly affect the dynamics by which populations are governed. Through the use of mathematical models, this thesis asks how environmental variation interacts with species properties to influence population dynamics, local adaptation, and dispersal evolution. More specifically, we couple continuous-time continuous-space stochastic population dynamic models to landscape models. We manipulate environmental variation via parameters such as mean patch size, patch density, and patch longevity. Among other findings, we show that a mixture of high and low quality habitat is commonly better for a population than uniformly mediocre habitat. This conclusion is justified by purely ecological arguments, yet the positive effects of landscape heterogeneity may be enhanced further by local adaptation, and by the evolution of short-ranged dispersal. The predicted evolutionary responses to environmental variation are complex, however, since they involve numerous conflicting factors. We discuss why the species that have high levels of local adaptation within their ranges may not be the same species that benefit from local adaptation during range expansion. We show how habitat loss can lead to either increased or decreased selection for dispersal depending on the type of habitat and the manner in which it is lost. To study the models, we develop a recent analytical method, Perturbation expansion, to enable the incorporation of environmental variation. Within this context, we use two methods to address evolutionary dynamics: Adaptive dynamics, which assumes mutations occur infrequently so that the ecological and evolutionary timescales can be separated, and via Genotype distributions, which assume mutations are more frequent. The two approaches generally lead to similar predictions yet, exceptionally, we show how the evolutionary response of dispersal behaviour to habitat turnover may qualitatively depend on the mutation rate.