929 resultados para weak informative prior
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The objectives of this thesis are to establish a chronological framework for environmental changes during the last 15,000 years in northwest Romania, to reconstruct the vegetation development, and to evaluate the underlying processes for forest dynamics. Furthermore, an overview of earlier and ongoing pollenstratigraphic work in Romania is provided. Sediments from two former crater lakes, Preluca Tiganului and Steregoiu, situated in the Gutaiului Mountains, on the western extremity of the Eastern Carpathians at 730 m and 790 m a.s.l., respectively were obtained and analysed for high-resolution pollen, macrofossils, charcoal, mineral magnetic parameters and organic matter. The chronostratigraphic framework was provided by dense AMS 14C measurements. Cold and dry climatic conditions are indicated by the occurrence of open vegetation with shrubs and herbs, and cold lake water prior to 14,700 cal. yr BP. The climatic improvement at the beginning of the Lateglacial interstadial (around 14,700 cal. yr BP) is seen by the development of open forests. These were dominated by Pinus and Betula, but contained also new arriving tree taxa, such as Populus, Alnus and Prunus. The gradual establishment of forests may have led to a stabilization of the soils in the catchment. Between ca. 14,100 and 13,800 cal. yr BP the forest density became reduced to stands of Pinus, Betula, Alnus, Larix and Populus trees and grassland expanded, suggesting colder climatic conditions. Picea arrived as a new taxon at around 13,800 cal. yr BP, and between 13,800 and 12,900 cal. yr BP, the surroundings of the sites were predominantly covered by Picea forest. This forest included Betula, Pinus, Alnus, Larix and Populus and, from 13,200 cal. yr BP onwards also Ulmus. At ca. 12,900 cal. yr BP, the forest became significantly reduced and at 12,600 cal. yr BP, a recurrence of open vegetation with stands of Larix, Pinus, Betula, Salix and Alnus is documented, lasting until 11,500 cal. yr BP. This distinct change in vegetation may by taken as a strong decline in temperature and moisture availability. At the transition to the Holocene, at ca. 11,500 cal. yr BP, Pinus, Betula and Larix quickly expanded (from small local stands) and formed open forests, probably as a response to warmer and more humid climatic conditions. At 11,250 cal. yr BP Ulmus and Picea expanded and the landscape became completely forested. The rapid increase of Ulmus and Picea after 11,500 cal. yr BP may suggest the existence of small residual populations close to the study sites during the preceding cold interval. Ulmus was the first and most prominent deciduous taxa in the early Holocene in the Gutaiului Mountains. From ca. 10,750 cal. yr BP onwards Quercus, Tilia, Fraxinus and Acer expanded and Corylus arrived. A highly diverse, predominantly deciduous forest with Ulmus, Quercus, Tilia, Fraxinus, Acer, Corylus and Picea developed between 10,700 and 8200 cal. yr BP, which possibly signifies more continental climatic conditions. The development of a Picea-Corylus dominated forest between 8200 and 5700 cal. yr BP is likely connected to a more humid and cooler climate. The establishment of Carpinus and Fagus was dated to 5750 cal. yr BP and 5200 cal. yr BP, respectively. The dominance of Fagus during the late Holocene, from 4000 cal. yr BP onwards, may have been related to cooler and more humid climatic conditions. First signs of human activities are recorded around 2300 cal. yr BP, but only during the last 300 years did local human impact become significant. The vegetation development recorded in the Gutaiului Mountains during the Lateglacial is very similar to reconstructions based on lowland sites, whereas higher elevation sites seem not to have always experienced visible vegetation changes. The time of tree arrival and expansion during the past 11,500 cal. yr BP seems to have occurred almost synchronously across Romania. The composition of the forests during the Holocene in the Gutaiului Mountains is consistent with that reconstructed at mid-elevation sites, but differs from the forest composition at higher elevations. Important differences between the Gutaiului Mountains and other studied sites in Romania are a low representation of Carpinus and a late and weak human impact. The available data sets for Romania give evidence for the presence of coniferous and cold-tolerant deciduous trees before 14,700 cal. yr BP. Glacial refugia for Ulmus may have occurred in different parts of Romania, whereas the existence of Quercus, Tilia, Corylus and Fraxinus has not been corroborated.
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[EN] On 8-10 April 2007, several episodes of intense sea-breeze fronts were registered at the islands of Fuerteventura and Lanzarote (Canary Islands). The sea-breeze circulation was primary driven by daytime heating contrasts between land and the Atlantic Ocean during a period of weak trade winds. Numerical simulations of these events were carried out using the 3.1.1 version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) Model. Three different domains with 6.6-km, 2.2-km and 0.7-km horizontal grid spacing and two sets with 51 and 70 vertical sigma levels were defined. The simulation was performed using two-way interactive nesting between the first and the second domain, using different land surface model parameterizations (Thermal diffusion, Noah LSM and RUC) for comparison. Initial conditions were provided by the NCAR Dataset analysis from April 2007, which were improved using surface and upper-air observations. The poster is focused on the 10 April episode.
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[ES] Las bases educativas de la labor docente han estado sustentadas en los centros de enseñanza reglada (colegios, institutos y/o universidades). No obstante, debido a la gran influencia social y al margen de aprendizaje, la presencia de ámbitos de enseñanza no reglada comienza a prevalecer. El proyecto didáctico reflejado en este artículo ha sido realizado mediante la recogida de datos en diversas academias. Para ello, se ha preparado una entrevista previa a la recogida de los datos de carácter informativo y se ha procedido a la recopilación estadística de dichos datos obtenidos. En definitiva, el artículo pretende estudiar, a través de la práctica, la diversidad educativa y social de la actualidad. [EN] Teaching educational foundations have been supported in formal education centers (schools, high schools and/or universities). Nevertheless, apart from this style of learning, nowadays non-formal education is taking a more relevant role, due to an important social influence. The didactic project presented in this article has been elaborated taking as a frame of reference the data collection obtained from several academies. For this purpose, an interview prior to the collection of informative data has been prepared in order to compile all those statistical data. In conclusion, this article aims to study, through practice, the educational and social diversity of today.
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Human brain is provided with a flexible audio-visual system, which interprets and guides responses to external events according to spatial alignment, temporal synchronization and effectiveness of unimodal signals. The aim of the present thesis was to explore the possibility that such a system might represent the neural correlate of sensory compensation after a damage to one sensory pathway. To this purpose, three experimental studies have been conducted, which addressed the immediate, short-term and long-term effects of audio-visual integration on patients with Visual Field Defect (VFD). Experiment 1 investigated whether the integration of stimuli from different modalities (cross-modal) and from the same modality (within-modal) have a different, immediate effect on localization behaviour. Patients had to localize modality-specific stimuli (visual or auditory), cross-modal stimulus pairs (visual-auditory) and within-modal stimulus pairs (visual-visual). Results showed that cross-modal stimuli evoked a greater improvement than within modal stimuli, consistent with a Bayesian explanation. Moreover, even when visual processing was impaired, cross-modal stimuli improved performance in an optimal fashion. These findings support the hypothesis that the improvement derived from multisensory integration is not attributable to simple target redundancy, and prove that optimal integration of cross-modal signals occurs in processing stage which are not consciously accessible. Experiment 2 examined the possibility to induce a short term improvement of localization performance without an explicit knowledge of visual stimulus. Patients with VFD and patients with neglect had to localize weak sounds before and after a brief exposure to a passive cross-modal stimulation, which comprised spatially disparate or spatially coincident audio-visual stimuli. After exposure to spatially disparate stimuli in the affected field, only patients with neglect exhibited a shifts of auditory localization toward the visual attractor (the so called Ventriloquism After-Effect). In contrast, after adaptation to spatially coincident stimuli, both neglect and hemianopic patients exhibited a significant improvement of auditory localization, proving the occurrence of After Effect for multisensory enhancement. These results suggest the presence of two distinct recalibration mechanisms, each mediated by a different neural route: a geniculo-striate circuit and a colliculus-extrastriate circuit respectively. Finally, Experiment 3 verified whether a systematic audio-visual stimulation could exert a long-lasting effect on patients’ oculomotor behaviour. Eye movements responses during a visual search task and a reading task were studied before and after visual (control) or audio-visual (experimental) training, in a group of twelve patients with VFD and twelve controls subjects. Results showed that prior to treatment, patients’ performance was significantly different from that of controls in relation to fixations and saccade parameters; after audiovisual training, all patients reported an improvement in ocular exploration characterized by fewer fixations and refixations, quicker and larger saccades, and reduced scanpath length. Similarly, reading parameters were significantly affected by the training, with respect to specific impairments observed in left and right hemisphere–damaged patients. The present findings provide evidence that a systematic audio-visual stimulation may encourage a more organized pattern of visual exploration with long lasting effects. In conclusion, results from these studies clearly demonstrate that the beneficial effects of audio-visual integration can be retained in absence of explicit processing of visual stimulus. Surprisingly, an improvement of spatial orienting can be obtained not only when a on-line response is required, but also after either a brief or a long adaptation to audio-visual stimulus pairs, so suggesting the maintenance of mechanisms subserving cross-modal perceptual learning after a damage to geniculo-striate pathway. The colliculus-extrastriate pathway, which is spared in patients with VFD, seems to play a pivotal role in this sensory compensation.
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In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.
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Homo-oligofluorenes (OFn), polyfluorenes (PF2/6) and oligofluorenes with one fluorenenone group in the center (OFnK) were synthesized. They were used as model compounds to understand of the structure-property relationships of polyfluorenes and the origin of the green emission in the photoluminescence (after photooxidation of the PFs) and the electroluminescence (EL) spectra. The electronic, electrochemical properties, thermal behavior, supramolecular self-assembly, and photophysical properties of OFn, PF2/6 and OFnK were investigated. Oligofluorenes with 2-ethylhexyl side chain (OF2-OF7) from the dimer up to the heptamer were prepared by a series of stepwise transition metal mediated Suzuki and Yamamoto coupling reactions. Polyfluorene was synthesized by Yamamoto coupling of 2,7-dibromo-9,9-bis(2-ethylhexyl)fluorene. Oligofluorenes with one fluorenone group in the center (OF3K, OF5K, OF7K) were prepared by Suzuki coupling between the monoboronic fluorenyl monomer, dimer, trimer and 2, 7-dibromofluorenone. The electrochemical and electronic properties of homo-oligofluorenes (OFn) were systematically studied by several combined techniques such as cyclic voltammetry, differential pulse voltammetry, UV-vis absorption spectroscopy, steady and time-resolved fluorescence spectroscopy. It was found that the oligofluorenes behave like classical conjugated oligomers, i.e., with the increase of the chain-length, the corresponding oxidation potential, the absorption and emission maximum, ionization potential, electron affinity, band gap and the photoluminescence lifetime displayed a very good linear relation with the reciprocal number of the fluorene units (1/n). The extrapolation of these linear relations to infinite chain length predicted the electrochemical and electronic properties of the corresponding polyfluorenes. The thermal behavior, single-crystal structure and supramolecular packing, alignment properties, and molecular dynamics of the homo-oligofluorenes (OFn) up to the polymer were studied using techniques such as TGA, DSC, WAXS, POM and DS. The OFn from tetramer to heptamer show a smectic liquid crystalline phase with clearly defined isotropization temperature. The oligomers do show a glass transition which exhibits n-1 dependence and allows extrapolation to a hypothetical glass transition of the polymer at around 64 °C. A smectic packing and helix-like conformation for the oligofluorenes from tetramer to heptamer was supported by WAXS experiments, simulation, and single-crystal structure of some oligofluorene derivatives. Oligofluorenes were aligned more easily than the corresponding polymer, and the alignability increased with the molecular length from tetramer to heptamer. The molecular dynamics in a series of oligofluorenes up to the polymer was studied using dielectric spectroscopy. The photophysical properties of OFn and PF2/6 were investigated by the steady-state spectra (UV-vis absorption and fluorescence spectra) and time-resolved fluorescence spectra both in solution and thin film. The time-resolved fluorescence spectra of the oligofluorenes were measured by streak camera and gate detection technique. The lifetime of the oligofluorenes decreased with the extension of the chain-length. No green emission was observed in CW, prompt and delayed fluorescence for oligofluorenes in m-THF and film at RT and 77K. Phosphorescence was observed for oligofluorenes in frozen dilute m-THF solution at 77K and its lifetime increased with length of oligofluorenes. A linear relation was obtained for triplet energy and singlet energy as a function of the reciprocal degree of polymerization, and the singlet-triplet energy gap (S1-T1) was found to decrease with the increase of degree of polymerization. Oligofluorenes with one fluorenone unit at the center were used as model compounds to understand the origin of the low-energy (“green”) emission band in the photoluminescence and electroluminescence spectra of polyfluorenes. Their electrochemical properties were investigated by CV, and the ionization potential (Ip) and electron affinity (Ea) were calculated from the onset of oxidation and reduction of OFnK. The photophysical properties of OFnK were studied in dilute solution and thin film by steady-state spectra and time-resolved fluorescence spectra. A strong green emission accompanied with a weak blue emission were obtained in solution and only green emission was observed on film. The strong green emission of OFnK suggested that rapid energy transfer takes place from higher energy sites (fluorene segments) to lower energy sites (fluorenone unit) prior to the radiative decay of the excited species. The fluorescence spectra of OFnK also showed solvatochromism. Monoexponential decay behaviour was observed by time-resolved fluorescence measurements. In addition, the site-selective excitation and concentration dependence of the fluorescence spectra were investigated. The ratio of green and blue emission band intensities increases with the increase of the concentration. The observed strong concentration dependence of the green emission band in solution suggests that increased interchain interactions among the fluorenone-containing oligofluorene chain enhanced the emission from the fluorenone defects at higher concentration. On the other hand, the mono-exponential decay behaviour and power dependence were not influenced significantly by the concentration. We have ruled out the possibility that the green emission band originates from aggregates or excimer formation. Energy transfer was further investigated using a model system of a polyfluorene doped by OFnK. Förster-type energy transfer took place from PF2/6 to OFnK, and the energy transfer efficiency increased with increasing of the concentration of OFnK. Efficient funneling of excitation energy from the high-energy fluorene segments to the low-energy fluorenone defects results from energy migration by hopping of excitations along a single polymer chain until they are trapped on the fluorenone defects on that chain or transferred onto neighbouring chains by Förster-type interchain energy transfer process. These results imply that the red-shifted emission in polyfluorenes can originate from (usually undesirable) keto groups at the bridging carbon atoms-especially if the samples have been subject to photo- or electro-oxidation or if fluorenone units are present due to an improper purification of the monomers prior to polymerization.
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This dissertation comprises three essays on the topic of industrial organization. The first essay considers how different intellectual property systems can affect the incentives to invest in R&D when innovation is cumulative. I introduce a distinction between plain and sophisticated technological knowledge, which plays a crucial role in determining how different appropriability rules affect the incentives to innovate. I argue that the positive effect of weak intellectual property regimes on the sharing of intermediate technological knowledge vanishes when technological knowledge is sophisticated, as is likely to be the case in many high tech industries. The second essay analyzes a two-sided market for news where advertisers may pay a media outlet to conceal negative information on the quality of their own product (paying positive to avoid negative) and/or to disclose negative information on the quality of their competitors products (paying positive to go negative). It is shown that whether advertisers have negative consequences on the accuracy of media reports or not, ultimately depends on the extent of correlation among advertisers products. The third essay considers the role of social learning in the diffusion of a new technology. A population of agents can choose between two risky technologies: an old one for which they know the expected outcome, and a new one for which they have only a prior. Different environments are confronted. In the benchmark case agents are isolated and can perform costly experiments to infer the quality of the new technology. In the other cases agents are settled in a network and can observe the outcomes of neighbors. We observe that in expectations the quality of the new technology may be overestimated when there is a network spread of information.
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Weak lensing experiments such as the future ESA-accepted mission Euclid aim to measure cosmological parameters with unprecedented accuracy. It is important to assess the precision that can be obtained in these measurements by applying analysis software on mock images that contain many sources of noise present in the real data. In this Thesis, we show a method to perform simulations of observations, that produce realistic images of the sky according to characteristics of the instrument and of the survey. We then use these images to test the performances of the Euclid mission. In particular, we concentrate on the precision of the photometric redshift measurements, which are key data to perform cosmic shear tomography. We calculate the fraction of the total observed sample that must be discarded to reach the required level of precision, that is equal to 0.05(1+z) for a galaxy with measured redshift z, with different ancillary ground-based observations. The results highlight the importance of u-band observations, especially to discriminate between low (z < 0.5) and high (z ~ 3) redshifts, and the need for good observing sites, with seeing FWHM < 1. arcsec. We then construct an optimal filter to detect galaxy clusters through photometric catalogues of galaxies, and we test it on the COSMOS field, obtaining 27 lensing-confirmed detections. Applying this algorithm on mock Euclid data, we verify the possibility to detect clusters with mass above 10^14.2 solar masses with a low rate of false detections.
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The aim of this thesis was to investigate the respective contribution of prior information and sensorimotor constraints to action understanding, and to estimate their consequences on the evolution of human social learning. Even though a huge amount of literature is dedicated to the study of action understanding and its role in social learning, these issues are still largely debated. Here, I critically describe two main perspectives. The first perspective interprets faithful social learning as an outcome of a fine-grained representation of others’ actions and intentions that requires sophisticated socio-cognitive skills. In contrast, the second perspective highlights the role of simpler decision heuristics, the recruitment of which is determined by individual and ecological constraints. The present thesis aims to show, through four experimental works, that these two contributions are not mutually exclusive. A first study investigates the role of the inferior frontal cortex (IFC), the anterior intraparietal area (AIP) and the primary somatosensory cortex (S1) in the recognition of other people’s actions, using a transcranial magnetic stimulation adaptation paradigm (TMSA). The second work studies whether, and how, higher-order and lower-order prior information (acquired from the probabilistic sampling of past events vs. derived from an estimation of biomechanical constraints of observed actions) interacts during the prediction of other people’s intentions. Using a single-pulse TMS procedure, the third study investigates whether the interaction between these two classes of priors modulates the motor system activity. The fourth study tests the extent to which behavioral and ecological constraints influence the emergence of faithful social learning strategies at a population level. The collected data contribute to elucidate how higher-order and lower-order prior expectations interact during action prediction, and clarify the neural mechanisms underlying such interaction. Finally, these works provide/open promising perspectives for a better understanding of social learning, with possible extensions to animal models.
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Negli ultimi vent’anni sono state proposte al livello internazionale alcune analisi dei problemi per le scienze nella scuola e diverse strategie per l’innovazione didattica. Molte ricerche hanno fatto riferimento a una nuova nozione di literacy scientifica, quale sapere fondamentale dell’educazione, indipendente dalle scelte professionali successive alla scuola. L’ipotesi di partenza di questa ricerca sostiene che alcune di queste analisi e l’idea di una nuova literacy scientifica di tipo non-vocazionale mostrino notevoli limiti quando rapportate al contesto italiano. Le specificità di quest’ultimo sono state affrontate, innanzitutto, da un punto di vista comparativo, discutendo alcuni documenti internazionali sull’insegnamento delle scienze. Questo confronto ha messo in luce la difficoltà di ottenere un insieme di evidenze chiare e definitive sui problemi dell’educazione scientifica discussi da questi documenti, in particolare per quanto riguarda i dati sulla crisi delle vocazioni scientifiche e sull’attitudine degli studenti verso le scienze. Le raccomandazioni educative e alcuni progetti curricolari internazionali trovano degli ostacoli decisivi nella scuola superiore italiana anche a causa di specificità istituzionali, come particolari principi di selezione e l’articolazione dei vari indirizzi formativi. Il presente lavoro si è basato soprattutto su una ricostruzione storico-pedagogica del curricolo di fisica, attraverso l’analisi delle linee guida nazionali, dei programmi di studio e di alcuni rappresentativi manuali degli ultimi decenni. Questo esame del curricolo “programmato” ha messo in luce, primo, il carattere accademico della fisica liceale e la sua debole rielaborazione culturale e didattica, secondo, l’impatto di temi e problemi internazionali sui materiali didattici. Tale impatto ha prodotto dei cambiamenti sul piano delle finalità educative e degli strumenti di apprendimento incorporati nei manuali. Nonostante l’evoluzione di queste caratteristiche del curricolo, tuttavia, l’analisi delle conoscenze storico-filosofiche utilizzate dai manuali ha messo in luce la scarsa contestualizzazione culturale della fisica quale uno degli ostacoli principali per l’insegnamento di una scienza più rilevante e formativa.
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1.Microfinance Industry – Context of Analysis. This paper is an introduction to the microfinance industry. It serves as a context of analysis, for the empirical settings and basis for building the theoretical argument for the thesis. 2.Women in Microfinance Institutions: The Road to Poverty Reduction and Gender Equality? One of the unique aspects of microfinance institutions is their focus on outreach, i.e. their ability to reach the poor. This paper explores whether the presence of women in microfinance institutions is associated with improved outreach. Building on prior research that shows that women tend to improve financial performance and social responsibility, we examine an original dataset of 226 microfinance institutions. The empirical results suggest that the presence of a female CEO, female managers and female loan officers is directly related to improved outreach, while the presence of women board members is not. 3. Women in Microfinance Institutions: Is There a Trade-Off Between Outreach and Sustainability? Abstract This paper’s contribution to the understanding of microfinance is two-fold. First, while it has been shown that female CEOs in MFIs increase financial performance, it will be argued that female managers, female loan officers and female board members will do the same. Secondly, having previously shown that having a female presence in management in MFIs improves social performance the outreach, it will be argued that having females in the MFIs’ management will not lead to a trade-off between outreach and sustainability. These findings are based on an original data set of 226 MFIs. Statistical analysis demonstrates that a weak relationship between female managers and female loan officers vis-à-vis financial performance, but female board members do not. The trade-off between outreach and sustainability can be avoided with the appointment of females to the MFIs’ management positions, but the same cannot be concluded for female board members.
Potential vorticity and moisture in extratropical cyclones : climatology and sensitivity experiments
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The development of extratropical cyclones can be seen as an interplay of three positive potential vorticity (PV) anomalies: an upper-level stratospheric intrusion, low-tropospheric diabatically produced PV, and a warm anomaly at the surface acting as a surrogate PV anomaly. In the mature stage they become vertically aligned and form a “PV tower” associated with strong cyclonic circulation. This paradigm of extratropical cyclone development provides the basis of this thesis, which will use a climatological dataset and numerical model experiments to investigate the amplitude of the three anomalies and the processes leading in particular to the formation of the diabatically produced low-tropospheric PV anomaly.rnrnThe first part of this study, based on the interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) dataset, quantifies the amplitude of the three PV anomalies in mature extratropical cyclones in different regions in the Northern Hemisphere on a climatological basis. A tracking algorithm is applied to sea level pressure (SLP) fields to identify cyclone tracks. Surface potential temperature anomalies ∆θ and vertical profiles of PV anomalies ∆PV are calculated at the time of the cyclones’ minimum SLP and during the intensification phase 24 hours before in a vertical cylinder with a radius of 200 km around the surface cyclone center. To compare the characteristics of the cyclones, they are grouped according to their location (8 regions) and intensity, where the central SLP is used as a measure of intensity. Composites of ∆PV profiles and ∆θ are calculated for each region and intensity class at the time of minimum SLP and during the cyclone intensification phase.rnrnDuring the cyclones’ development stage the amplitudes of all three anomalies increase on average. In the mature stage all three anomalies are typically larger for intense than for weak winter cyclones [e.g., 0.6 versus 0.2 potential vorticity units (PVU) at lower levels, and 1.5 versus 0.5 PVU at upper levels].rnThe regional variability of the cyclones’ vertical structure and the profile evolution is prominent (cyclones in some regions are more sensitive to the amplitude of a particular anomaly than in other regions). Values of ∆θ and low-level ∆PV are on average larger in the western parts of the oceans than in the eastern parts. In addition, a large seasonal variability can be identified, with fewer and weaker cyclones especially in the summer, associated with higher low-tropospheric PV values, but also with a higher tropopause and much weaker surface potential temperature anomalies (compared to winter cyclones).rnrnIn the second part, we were interested in the diabatic low-level part of PV towers. Evaporative sources were identified of moisture that was involved in PV production through condensation. Lagrangian backward trajectories were calculated from the region with high PV values at low-levels in the cyclones. PV production regions were identified along these trajectories and from these regions a new set of backward trajectories was calculated and moisture uptakes were traced along them. The main contribution from surface evaporation to the specific humidity of the trajectories is collected 12-72 hours prior to therntime of PV production. The uptake region for weaker cyclones with less PV in the centre is typically more localized with reduced uptake values compared to intense cyclones. However, in a qualitative sense uptakes and other variables along single trajectories do not vary much between cyclones of different intensity in different regions.rnrnA sensitivity study with the COSMO model comprises the last part of this work. The study aims at investigating the influence of synthetic moisture modification in the cyclone environment in different stages of its development. Moisture was eliminated in three regions, which were identified as important moisture source regions for PV production. Moisture suppression affected the cyclone the most in its early phase. It led to cyclolysis shortly after its genesis. Nevertheles, a new cyclone formed on the other side of a dry box and developed relatively quickly. Also in other experiments, moisture elimination led to strong intensity reduction of the surface cyclone, limited upper-level development, and delayed or missing interaction between the two.rnrnIn summary, this thesis provides novel insight into the structure of different intensity categories of extratropical cyclones from a PV perspective, which corroborates the findings from a series of previous case studies. It reveals that all three PV anomalies are typically enhanced for more intense cyclones, with important regional differences concerning the relative amplitude of the three anomalies. The moisture source analysis is the first of this kind to study the evaporation-condensation cycle related to the intensification of extratropical cyclones. Interestingly, most of the evaporation occurs during the 3 days prior to the time of maximum cyclone intensity and typically extends over fairly large areas along the track of the cyclone. The numerical model case study complements this analysis by analyzing the impact of regionally confined moisture sources for the evolution of the cyclone.
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There is a paucity of data on the success rates of achieving percutaneous epicardial access in different groups of patients.