Uncertainty in forest simulators and forest planning systems

The forest simulator is a computerized model for predicting forest growth and future development as well as effects of forest harvests and treatments. The forest planning system is a decision support tool, usually including a forest simulator and an optimisation model, for finding the optimal forest management actions. The information produced by forest simulators and forest planning systems is used for various analytical purposes and in support of decision making. However, the quality and reliability of this information can often be questioned. Natural variation in forest growth and estimation errors in forest inventory, among other things, cause uncertainty in predictions of forest growth and development. This uncertainty stemming from different sources has various undesirable effects. In many cases outcomes of decisions based on uncertain information are something else than desired. The objective of this thesis was to study various sources of uncertainty and their effects in forest simulators and forest planning systems. The study focused on three notable sources of uncertainty: errors in forest growth predictions, errors in forest inventory data, and stochastic fluctuation of timber assortment prices. Effects of uncertainty were studied using two types of forest growth models, individual tree-level models and stand-level models, and with various error simulation methods. New method for simulating more realistic forest inventory errors was introduced and tested. Also, three notable sources of uncertainty were combined and their joint effects on stand-level net present value estimates were simulated. According to the results, the various sources of uncertainty can have distinct effects in different forest growth simulators. The new forest inventory error simulation method proved to produce more realistic errors. The analysis on the joint effects of various sources of uncertainty provided interesting knowledge about uncertainty in forest simulators.

Bat habitat requirements : implications for land use planning

Knowledge of the habitat requirements of bat species is needed in decision making in land use planning. Bats' hibernation requirements were studied both in Estonia and in southern Finland. In both countries, the northern bat and the brown long-eared bat hibernated in colder and drier locations, whereas Daubenton's bat and Brandt's/whiskered bats hibernated in warmer and more humid locations. In Estonia, the pond bat hibernated in the warmest and most humid conditions, whereas Natterer's bat hibernated in the coldest and driest conditions. Hibernacula were at their coldest in mid-season and became warmer towards the end of the season. The results suggest that bats made an active choice of colder hibernation temperatures at the seasons end. They minimised the negative effects of hibernation early in the hibernation season by hibernating in warmer locations and energy expenditure late in the hibernation season by hibernating in colder locations. The use of foraging habitats was studied in northern and southern Finland. The northern bat used foraging sites opportunistically. Daubenton's bat foraged mainly in water habitats, whereas Brandt's/whiskered bats and the brown long-eared bat foraged mainly in forest habitats. In northern Finland, Daubenton's bats foraged almost exclusively on rivers and typically together with the northern bat. Daubenton's bats and Brandt's/whiskered bats were found only where there were lower ambient light levels. One of the most important things in the management of foraging areas for them is to keep them shady. Hibernacula in Finland typically housed few bats, suggesting that hibernation sites used by even a small number of bats are important. Bats typically used natural stone for hibernation suggesting that natural underground sites in rocks or cliffs or man-made underground sites built using natural stone are important for them. The results suggest that appropriate timing of surveys may vary according to the species and latitude.

Owner-driven decision support in holding-specific forest planning

Socio-economic and demographic changes among family forest owners and demands for versatile forestry decision aid motivated this study, which sought grounds for owner-driven forest planning. Finnish family forest owners’ forest-related decision making was analyzed in two interview-based qualitative studies, the main findings of which were surveyed quantitatively. Thereafter, a scheme for adaptively mixing methods in individually tailored decision support processes was constructed. The first study assessed owners’ decision-making strategies by examining varying levels of the sharing of decision-making power and the desire to learn. Five decision-making modes – trusting, learning, managing, pondering, and decisive – were discerned and discussed against conformable decision-aid approaches. The second study conceptualized smooth communication and assessed emotional, practical, and institutional boosters of and barriers to such smoothness in communicative decision support. The results emphasize the roles of trust, comprehension, and contextual services in owners’ communicative decision making. In the third study, a questionnaire tool to measure owners’ attitudes towards communicative planning was constructed by using trusting, learning, and decisive dimensions. Through a multivariate analysis of survey data, three owner groups were identified as fusions of the original decision-making modes: trusting learners (53%), decisive learners (27%), and decisive managers (20%). Differently weighted communicative services are recommended for these compound wishes. The findings of the studies above were synthesized in a form of adaptive decision analysis (ADA), which allows and encourages the decision-maker (owner) to make deliberate choices concerning the phases of a decision aid (planning) process. The ADA model relies on adaptability and feedback management, which foster smooth communication with the owner and (inter-)organizational learning of the planning institution(s). The summarized results indicate that recognizing the communication-related amenity values of family forest owners may be crucial in developing planning and extension services. It is therefore recommended that owners, root-level planners, consultation professionals, and pragmatic researchers collaboratively continue to seek stable change.

Multiobjective Analysis of Irrigation Planning in River Basin Development

A river basin that is extensively developed in the downstream reaches and that has a high potential for development in the upper reaches is considered for irrigation planning. A four-reservoir system is modeled on a monthly basis by using a mathematical programing (LP) formulation to find optimum cropping patterns, subject to land, water, and downstream release constraints. The model is applied to a fiver basin in India. Two objectives, maximizing net economic benefits and maximizing irrigated cropped area, considered in the model are analyzed in the context of multiobjective planning, and the tradeoffs are discussed.

Optimal irrigation planning in river basin development: The case of the Upper Cauvery river basin

The study deals with the irrigation planning of the Cauvery river basin in peninsular India which is extensively developed in the downstream reaches and has a high potential for development in the upper reaches. A four-reservoir system is modelled on a monthly basis by using a mathematical programming (LP) formulation to find optimum cropping patterns, subject to land, water and downstream release constraints, and applied to the Cauvery basin. Two objectives, maximizing net economic benefits and maximizing irrigated cropped area, considered in the model are analysed in the context of multiobjective planning and the trade-offs discussed.

Focal brachytherapy treatment planning using multi-parametric MRI and biological dose optimisation

We describe a novel approach to treatment planning for focal brachytherapy utilizing a biologically based inverse optimization algorithm and biological imaging to target an ablative dose at known regions of significant tumour burden and a lower, therapeutic dose to low risk regions.

Plantation hardwood resource specifications required for planning small log sawing infrastructure investment in Queensland.

Improved information on the product quality of the plantation resource is needed to allow businesses to consider investing in the development of value-adding processing facilities. These facilities are likely to require customised design that optimises the utilisation of future small diameter plantation hardwood logs. This log resource will become available as wood supply in Queensland transitions from native forests to 100% from sustainable plantations. This resource will be controlled by plantations established prior to 2000. A survey of the three main growers (former Forest Enterprises Australia Pty Ltd, former Forestry Corporation of New South Wales, Hancock Queensland Plantation Pty Ltd) revealed that C. citriodora subsp.variegata – CCV (28.0%), Eucalyptus dunnii (27.5%), E. pilularis (23.0%), E. grandis (11.3%) and E. cloeziana –GMS (7.1%) were the most widely planted species in the southern Queensland and northern New South Wales subtropical hardwood estate and would potentially dominate the supply of plantation hardwoods to sawmill processing facilities.

Integration of natural hazards, risk and climate change into spatial planning practices

Most countries of Europe, as well as many countries in other parts of the world, are experiencing an increased impact of natural hazards. It is often speculated, but not yet proven, that climate change might influence the frequency and magnitude of certain hydro-meteorological natural hazards. What has certainly been observed is a sharp increase in financial losses caused by natural hazards worldwide. Eventhough Europe appears to be a space that is not affected by natural hazards to such catastrophic extents as other parts of the world are, the damages experienced here are certainly increasing too. Natural hazards, climate change and, in particular, risks have therefore recently been put high on the political agenda of the EU. In the search for appropriate instruments for mitigating impacts of natural hazards and climate change, as well as risks, the integration of these factors into spatial planning practices is constantly receiving higher attention. The focus of most approaches lies on single hazards and climate change mitigation strategies. The current paradigm shift of climate change mitigation to adaptation is used as a basis to draw conclusions and recommendations on what concepts could be further incorporated into spatial planning practices. Especially multi-hazard approaches are discussed as an important approach that should be developed further. One focal point is the definition and applicability of the terms natural hazard, vulnerability and risk in spatial planning practices. Especially vulnerability and risk concepts are so many-fold and complicated that their application in spatial planning has to be analysed most carefully. The PhD thesis is based on six published articles that describe the results of European research projects, which have elaborated strategies and tools for integrated communication and assessment practices on natural hazards and climate change impacts. The papers describe approaches on local, regional and European level, both from theoretical and practical perspectives. Based on these, passed, current and future potential spatial planning applications are reviewed and discussed. In conclusion it is recommended to shift from single hazard assessments to multi-hazard approaches, integrating potential climate change impacts. Vulnerability concepts should play a stronger role than present, and adaptation to natural hazards and climate change should be more emphasized in relation to mitigation. It is outlined that the integration of risk concepts in planning is rather complicated and would need very careful assessment to ensure applicability. Future spatial planning practices should also consider to be more interdisciplinary, i.e. to integrate as many stakeholders and experts as possible to ensure the sustainability of investments.

Ant colony optimization for reporting cell planning in mobile computing using selective paging strategy

Location management problem that arise in mobile computing networks is addressed. One method used in location management is to designate sonic of the cells in the network as "reporting cells". The other cells in the network are "non-reporting cells". Finding an optimal set of reporting cells (or reporting cell configuration) for a given network. is a difficult combinatorial optimization problem. In fact this is shown to be an NP-complete problem. in an earlier study. In this paper, we use the selective paging strategy and use an ant colony optimization method to obtain the best/optimal set of reporting cells for a given a network.

Planar pursuit-evasion with variable speeds, part 1, extremal trajectory maps

Pursuit evasion in a plane is formulated with both players allowed to vary their speeds between fixed limits. A suitable choice of real-space coordinates confers open-loop optimality on the game. The solution in the small is described in terms of the individual players'' extremal trajectory maps (ETM). Each map is independent of role, adversary, and capture radius. An ETM depicts the actual real-space trajectories. A template method of generating constant control arcs is described. Examples of ETM for an aircraft flying at a constant altitude with fixed and varying speeds are presented.

Dealing with discomfort: How the unspeakable confounds wicked planning problems

The idea of ‘wicked’ problems has made a valuable contribution to recognising the complexity and challenges of contemporary planning. However, some wicked policy problems are further complicated by a significant moral, psychological, religious or cultural dimension. This is particularly the case for problems that possess strong elements of abjection and symbolic pollution and high degrees of psychosocial sensitivity. Because this affects the way these problems are framed and discussed they are also characterised by high levels of verbal proscription. As a result, they are not discussed in the rational and emotion-free way that conventional planning demands and can become obscured or inadequately acknowledged in planning processes. This further contributes to their wickedness and intractability. Through paradigmatic urban planning examples, we argue that placing their unspeakable nature at the forefront of enquiry will enable planners to advocate for a more contextually and culturally situated approach to planning, which accommodates both emotional and embodied talk alongside more technical policy contributions. Re-imagining wicked problems in this way has the potential to enhance policy and plan-making and to disrupt norms, expose their contingency, and open new ways of planning for both the unspeakable and the merely wicked.

Co2 emissions and income trajectory in Australia: The role of technological change

This study investigates the relationship between per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and per capita GDP in Australia, while controlling for technological state as measured by multifactor productivity and export of black coal. Although technological progress seems to play a critical role in achieving long term goals of CO2 reduction and economic growth, empirical studies have often considered time trend to proxy technological change. However, as discoveries and diffusion of new technologies may not progress smoothly with time, the assumption of a deterministic technological progress may be incorrect in the long run. The use of multifactor productivity as a measure of technological state, therefore, overcomes the limitations and provides practical policy directions. This study uses recently developed bound-testing approach, which is complemented by Johansen- Juselius maximum likelihood approach and a reasonably large sample size to investigate the cointegration relationship. Both of the techniques suggest that cointegration relationship exists among the variables. The long-run and short-run coefficients of CO2 emissions function is estimated using ARDL approach. The empirical findings in the study show evidence of the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve type relationship for per capita CO2 emissions in the Australian context. The technology as measured by the multifactor productivity, however, is not found as an influencing variable in emissionsincome trajectory.

A Modified Dubins Method for Optimal Path Planning of a Miniature Air Vehicle Converging to a Straight Line Path

This paper presents a Dubins model based strategy to determine the optimal path of a Miniature Air Vehicle (MAV), constrained by a bounded turning rate, that would enable it to fly along a given straight line, starting from an arbitrary initial position and orientation. The method is then extended to meet the same objective in the presence of wind which has a magnitude comparable to the speed of the MAV. We use a modification of the Dubins' path method to obtain the complete optimal solution to this problem in all its generality.

Determination of optimal trajectory under design constraints for a satellite launch vehicle

An optimal pitch steering programme of a solid-fuel satellite launch vehicle to maximize either (1) the injection velocity at a given altitude, or (2) the size of circular orbit, for a given payload is presented. The two-dimensional model includes the rotation of atmosphere with the Earth, the vehicle's lift and drag, variation of thrust with time and altitude, inverse-square gravitational field, and the specified initial vertical take-off. The inequality constraints on the aerodynamic load, control force, and turning rates are also imposed. Using the properties of the central force motion the terminal constraint conditions at coast apogee are transferred to the penultimate stage burnout. Such a transformation converts a time-free problem into a time-fixed one, reduces the number of terminal constraints, improves accuracy, besides demanding less computer memory and time. The adjoint equations are developed in a compact matrix form. The problem is solved on an IBM 360/44 computer using a steepest ascent algorithm. An illustrative analysis of a typical launch vehicle establishes the speed of convergence, and accuracy and applicability of the algorithm.

Use of ecological information in urban planning

Urbanization leads to irreversible land-use change, which has ecological consequences such as the loss and fragmentation of green areas, and structural and functional changes in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. These consequences diminish ecosystem services important for human populations living in urban areas. All this results in a conflict situation: how to simultaneously meet the needs of city growth and the principles of sustainable development, and especially conserve important green areas within and around built-up areas? Urban planners and decisionmakers have an important role in this, since they must use the ecological information mainly from species and biotope inventories and biodiversity impact assessments in determining the conservation values of green areas. The main aim of this thesis was to study the use of ecological information in the urban land-use planning and decisionmaking process in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area, Finland. At first, the literature on ecological-social systems linkages related to urban planning was reviewed. Based on the review, a theoretical and conceptual framework for the research on Finnish urban setting was adapted. Secondly, factors determining the importance and effectiveness of incorporation of ecological information into the urban planning process, and the challenges related to the use of ecological information were studied. Thirdly, the importance and use of Local Ecological Knowledge in urban planning were investigated. Then, factors determining the consideration of urban green areas and related ecological information in political land-use decisionmaking were studied. Finally, in a case study illustrating the above considerations, the importance of urban stream ecosystems in the land-use planning was investigated. This thesis demonstrated that although there are several challenges in using ecological information effectively, it is considered as an increasingly important part of the basic information used in urban planning and decisionmaking process. The basic determinants for this are the recent changes in environmental legislation, but also the increasing appreciation of green areas and their conservation values by all the stakeholders. In addition, Local Ecological Knowledge in its several forms can be a source of ecological information for planners if incorporated effectively into the process. This study also showed that rare or endangered species and biotopes, and related ecological information receive priority in the urban planning process and usually pass through the decisionmaking system. Furthermore, the stream Rekolanoja case indicates that planners and residents see the value of urban stream ecosystem as increasingly important for the local health and social values, such as recreation and stress relief.