XML-verkkotietokantojen suorituskykyvertailu

XML:n kasvava suosio dokumenttiformaattina sekä sen alati monipuolistuva käyttö ovat lisänneet XML-tiedonhallintajärjestelmien tarvetta. Yksi tapa XML-dokumenttien hallintaan on edelleen tiedostopohjainen järjestelmä. Erilaisiin tietokantoihin perustuvat XML-tiedonhallintajärjestelmät ovat kuitenkin viime vuosina kasvattaneetsuosiotaan monipuolisempien ominaisuuksien ja paremman suorituskyvyn takia. Lisäksi XML-dokumenttien hallinta tiedostopohjaisessa järjestelmässä käy lähes mahdottomaksi suurilla datamäärillä. Suhteellisen uutena tulokkaana XML-dokumenttienhallintaan ovat tulleet natiivit XML -tietokannat, jotka ovat suunniteltu juuriXML:ää silmälläpitäen. Tässä diplomityössä esitellään erilaisia XML-tiedonhallintajärjestelmiä. Erityisesti relaatiotietokantoihin ja natiiveihin XML -tietokantoihin perustuvien ratkaisujen taustoihin ja teknisiin yksityiskohtiin yritetään luoda syvällinen katsaus. Neljälle XML-tiedonhallintaratkaisulle - Binary Approachille, Edge Approachille, eXistille ja Xindicelle - suoritetaan XMach-1 suorituskykytesti. Lisäksi testattavien ratkaisujen teknistä toimivuutta arvioidaan sekä analyyttisen että käytännön tarkastelun kautta. Suorituskykytestien ja teknisen toimivuuden arvioiden perusteella on tarkoitus valita XML-tiedonhallintaratkaisu Javalla toteutetulle Web-sovellukselle, joka käyttää XML:ää tietojen tallennusformaattina.

Tuovatko pääomasijoittajat lisäarvoa? Suomessa listattujen osakkeiden tuottovertailu

Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää listautumisantien suoriutumista Suomen markkinoilla, sekä verrata pääomasijoittajien ja muiden listaamia yrityksiä. Tutkimusperiodina käytetään 36 kuukautta. Lisäksi tutkitaan lyhyen ajanjakson tuottoja näiden välillä. Tutkimuksessa selvitetään myös se, miten kansainvälisellä aineistollahavaitut, listautumisanteihin liittyvät anomaliat toteutuvat Suomessa. Tutkimuksen aineisto koostuu 48 yrityksestä, jotka listautuivat Helsingin pörssiin vuosien 1996 - 2000 välillä. Tutkimusmenetelmänä käytetään tapahtumatutkimusta. Kerätystä aineistosta lasketaan ylituotot kolmea eri menetelmää käyttämällä, eli lasketaan CAR-, BHAR- ja WR-ylituotot. Aineistolle tehdään myösregressio, jossa alisuoriutumista selitetään erilaisilla muuttujilla. Empiiristen tulosten mukaan listautumisannit keskimäärin alisuoriutuvat Suomen markkinoilla vertailukohteina käytettyihin indekseihin verrattuna. Tämän tulos tukee aiempia, kansainvälisiltä markkinoilta saatuja havaintoja. Sitä vastoin tämän tutkimuksen perusteella pääomasijoittajien listaamat yritykset alisuoriutuvat enemmän kuin muut listatut yritykset. Tämä havainto poikkeaa kansainvälisellä aineistolla tehdyistä tutkimuksista. Tutkittaessa portfolioiden ominaisuuksia, havaittiin erityisesti listautumisvuoden selittävän alisuoriutumisen voimakkuutta.

Lappeenrannan teknillisen yliopiston sähkötekniikan osaston uuden kaksivaiheisen tutkintorakenteen kansainvälinen vertailu. Raportti vertailuhankkeen toisesta vaiheesta 15.2.2005

Raportti käsittelee Lappeenrannan teknillisen yliopiston sähkötekniikan uutta kaksivaiheista tutkintorakennetta suhteessa ulkomaisiin vastaaviin master-tasoisiin tutkintorakenteisiin. Tutkimusmenetelmänä käytetään benchmarking-menetelmää. Tutkimusainesto kerätttiin 52:n eurooppalaisen yliopiston www-sivuilta ja opinto-oppaista. Näistä yliopistoista valittiin tarkempaan vertailuun kolme mielenkiintoiseksi vertailukumppaniksi valittua sähkötekniikan koulutusyksikköä: TUL, Technical University of Lodz, Puolasta. TUM,Technical University of München, Saksasta. KTH, Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, Ruotsi. Toisen vaiheen vertailutulosten valossa näyttää siltä, että kaikkien vertailtujen yliopistojen tutkintojen sisällöt ja määrät ovat samankaltaisia, joten vertailukumppanit oletettavasti kykenevät ymmärtämään eri yliopistojen koulutusohjelmien toteutuksia. Toisaalta sähkötekniikan koulutuksen toteutukset näyttävät vertailuissa yliopistoissa sen verran erilaisilta, että vertailun avulla on mahdollista oppia eri toteutuksien taustalla olevista kulttuurieroista ja tavoitteista, sekä päästä hedelmälliseen yhteistyöhön vertailtavien yliopistojen sähkötekniikan osastojen kanssa.

Artificial evolution on network structures : how time and space influence dynamics

Abstract The main objective of this work is to show how the choice of the temporal dimension and of the spatial structure of the population influences an artificial evolutionary process. In the field of Artificial Evolution we can observe a common trend in synchronously evolv¬ing panmictic populations, i.e., populations in which any individual can be recombined with any other individual. Already in the '90s, the works of Spiessens and Manderick, Sarma and De Jong, and Gorges-Schleuter have pointed out that, if a population is struc¬tured according to a mono- or bi-dimensional regular lattice, the evolutionary process shows a different dynamic with respect to the panmictic case. In particular, Sarma and De Jong have studied the selection pressure (i.e., the diffusion of a best individual when the only selection operator is active) induced by a regular bi-dimensional structure of the population, proposing a logistic modeling of the selection pressure curves. This model supposes that the diffusion of a best individual in a population follows an exponential law. We show that such a model is inadequate to describe the process, since the growth speed must be quadratic or sub-quadratic in the case of a bi-dimensional regular lattice. New linear and sub-quadratic models are proposed for modeling the selection pressure curves in, respectively, mono- and bi-dimensional regu¬lar structures. These models are extended to describe the process when asynchronous evolutions are employed. Different dynamics of the populations imply different search strategies of the resulting algorithm, when the evolutionary process is used to solve optimisation problems. A benchmark of both discrete and continuous test problems is used to study the search characteristics of the different topologies and updates of the populations. In the last decade, the pioneering studies of Watts and Strogatz have shown that most real networks, both in the biological and sociological worlds as well as in man-made structures, have mathematical properties that set them apart from regular and random structures. In particular, they introduced the concepts of small-world graphs, and they showed that this new family of structures has interesting computing capabilities. Populations structured according to these new topologies are proposed, and their evolutionary dynamics are studied and modeled. We also propose asynchronous evolutions for these structures, and the resulting evolutionary behaviors are investigated. Many man-made networks have grown, and are still growing incrementally, and explanations have been proposed for their actual shape, such as Albert and Barabasi's preferential attachment growth rule. However, many actual networks seem to have undergone some kind of Darwinian variation and selection. Thus, how these networks might have come to be selected is an interesting yet unanswered question. In the last part of this work, we show how a simple evolutionary algorithm can enable the emrgence o these kinds of structures for two prototypical problems of the automata networks world, the majority classification and the synchronisation problems. Synopsis L'objectif principal de ce travail est de montrer l'influence du choix de la dimension temporelle et de la structure spatiale d'une population sur un processus évolutionnaire artificiel. Dans le domaine de l'Evolution Artificielle on peut observer une tendence à évoluer d'une façon synchrone des populations panmictiques, où chaque individu peut être récombiné avec tout autre individu dans la population. Déjà dans les année '90, Spiessens et Manderick, Sarma et De Jong, et Gorges-Schleuter ont observé que, si une population possède une structure régulière mono- ou bi-dimensionnelle, le processus évolutionnaire montre une dynamique différente de celle d'une population panmictique. En particulier, Sarma et De Jong ont étudié la pression de sélection (c-à-d la diffusion d'un individu optimal quand seul l'opérateur de sélection est actif) induite par une structure régulière bi-dimensionnelle de la population, proposant une modélisation logistique des courbes de pression de sélection. Ce modèle suppose que la diffusion d'un individu optimal suit une loi exponentielle. On montre que ce modèle est inadéquat pour décrire ce phénomène, étant donné que la vitesse de croissance doit obéir à une loi quadratique ou sous-quadratique dans le cas d'une structure régulière bi-dimensionnelle. De nouveaux modèles linéaires et sous-quadratique sont proposés pour des structures mono- et bi-dimensionnelles. Ces modèles sont étendus pour décrire des processus évolutionnaires asynchrones. Différentes dynamiques de la population impliquent strategies différentes de recherche de l'algorithme résultant lorsque le processus évolutionnaire est utilisé pour résoudre des problèmes d'optimisation. Un ensemble de problèmes discrets et continus est utilisé pour étudier les charactéristiques de recherche des différentes topologies et mises à jour des populations. Ces dernières années, les études de Watts et Strogatz ont montré que beaucoup de réseaux, aussi bien dans les mondes biologiques et sociologiques que dans les structures produites par l'homme, ont des propriétés mathématiques qui les séparent à la fois des structures régulières et des structures aléatoires. En particulier, ils ont introduit la notion de graphe sm,all-world et ont montré que cette nouvelle famille de structures possède des intéressantes propriétés dynamiques. Des populations ayant ces nouvelles topologies sont proposés, et leurs dynamiques évolutionnaires sont étudiées et modélisées. Pour des populations ayant ces structures, des méthodes d'évolution asynchrone sont proposées, et la dynamique résultante est étudiée. Beaucoup de réseaux produits par l'homme se sont formés d'une façon incrémentale, et des explications pour leur forme actuelle ont été proposées, comme le preferential attachment de Albert et Barabàsi. Toutefois, beaucoup de réseaux existants doivent être le produit d'un processus de variation et sélection darwiniennes. Ainsi, la façon dont ces structures ont pu être sélectionnées est une question intéressante restée sans réponse. Dans la dernière partie de ce travail, on montre comment un simple processus évolutif artificiel permet à ce type de topologies d'émerger dans le cas de deux problèmes prototypiques des réseaux d'automates, les tâches de densité et de synchronisation.

Dynamic drag modeling of submerged aquatic vegetation canopy flows

Vegetation has a profound effect on flow and sediment transport processes in natural rivers, by increasing both skin friction and form drag. The increase in drag introduces a drag discontinuity between the in-canopy flow and the flow above, which leads to the development of an inflection point in the velocity profile, resembling a free shear layer. Therefore, drag acts as the primary driver for the entire canopy system. Most current numerical hydraulic models which incorporate vegetation rely either on simple, static plant forms, or canopy-scaled drag terms. However, it is suggested that these are insufficient as vegetation canopies represent complex, dynamic, porous blockages within the flow, which are subject to spatially and temporally dynamic drag forces. Here we present a dynamic drag methodology within a CFD framework. Preliminary results for a benchmark cylinder case highlight the accuracy of the method, and suggest its applicability to more complex cases.

Generating highly balanced sudoku problems as hard problems

Sudoku problems are some of the most known and enjoyed pastimes, with a never diminishing popularity, but, for the last few years those problems have gone from an entertainment to an interesting research area, a twofold interesting area, in fact. On the one side Sudoku problems, being a variant of Gerechte Designs and Latin Squares, are being actively used for experimental design, as in [8, 44, 39, 9]. On the other hand, Sudoku problems, as simple as they seem, are really hard structured combinatorial search problems, and thanks to their characteristics and behavior, they can be used as benchmark problems for refining and testing solving algorithms and approaches. Also, thanks to their high inner structure, their study can contribute more than studies of random problems to our goal of solving real-world problems and applications and understanding problem characteristics that make them hard to solve. In this work we use two techniques for solving and modeling Sudoku problems, namely, Constraint Satisfaction Problem (CSP) and Satisfiability Problem (SAT) approaches. To this effect we define the Generalized Sudoku Problem (GSP), where regions can be of rectangular shape, problems can be of any order, and solution existence is not guaranteed. With respect to the worst-case complexity, we prove that GSP with block regions of m rows and n columns with m = n is NP-complete. For studying the empirical hardness of GSP, we define a series of instance generators, that differ in the balancing level they guarantee between the constraints of the problem, by finely controlling how the holes are distributed in the cells of the GSP. Experimentally, we show that the more balanced are the constraints, the higher the complexity of solving the GSP instances, and that GSP is harder than the Quasigroup Completion Problem (QCP), a problem generalized by GSP. Finally, we provide a study of the correlation between backbone variables – variables with the same value in all the solutions of an instance– and hardness of GSP.

Mapping Bias Overestimates Reference Allele Frequencies at the HLA Genes in the 1000 Genomes Project Phase I Data.

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies have become the standard for data generation in studies of population genomics, as the 1000 Genomes Project (1000G). However, these techniques are known to be problematic when applied to highly polymorphic genomic regions, such as the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes. Because accurate genotype calls and allele frequency estimations are crucial to population genomics analyses, it is important to assess the reliability of NGS data. Here, we evaluate the reliability of genotype calls and allele frequency estimates of the single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) reported by 1000G (phase I) at five HLA genes (HLA-A, -B, -C, -DRB1, and -DQB1). We take advantage of the availability of HLA Sanger sequencing of 930 of the 1092 1000G samples and use this as a gold standard to benchmark the 1000G data. We document that 18.6% of SNP genotype calls in HLA genes are incorrect and that allele frequencies are estimated with an error greater than ±0.1 at approximately 25% of the SNPs in HLA genes. We found a bias toward overestimation of reference allele frequency for the 1000G data, indicating mapping bias is an important cause of error in frequency estimation in this dataset. We provide a list of sites that have poor allele frequency estimates and discuss the outcomes of including those sites in different kinds of analyses. Because the HLA region is the most polymorphic in the human genome, our results provide insights into the challenges of using of NGS data at other genomic regions of high diversity.

Biological evidence supports an early and complex emergence of the Isthmus of Panama.

The linking of North and South America by the Isthmus of Panama had major impacts on global climate, oceanic and atmospheric currents, and biodiversity, yet the timing of this critical event remains contentious. The Isthmus is traditionally understood to have fully closed by ca. 3.5 million years ago (Ma), and this date has been used as a benchmark for oceanographic, climatic, and evolutionary research, but recent evidence suggests a more complex geological formation. Here, we analyze both molecular and fossil data to evaluate the tempo of biotic exchange across the Americas in light of geological evidence. We demonstrate significant waves of dispersal of terrestrial organisms at approximately ca. 20 and 6 Ma and corresponding events separating marine organisms in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans at ca. 23 and 7 Ma. The direction of dispersal and their rates were symmetrical until the last ca. 6 Ma, when northern migration of South American lineages increased significantly. Variability among taxa in their timing of dispersal or vicariance across the Isthmus is not explained by the ecological factors tested in these analyses, including biome type, dispersal ability, and elevation preference. Migration was therefore not generally regulated by intrinsic traits but more likely reflects the presence of emergent terrain several millions of years earlier than commonly assumed. These results indicate that the dramatic biotic turnover associated with the Great American Biotic Interchange was a long and complex process that began as early as the Oligocene-Miocene transition.

Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Characterization of gait in female patients with moderate to severe hallux valgus deformity.

BACKGROUND: Hallux valgus is one of the most common forefoot problems in females. Studies have looked at gait alterations due to hallux valgus deformity, assessing temporal, kinematic or plantar pressure parameters individually. The present study, however, aims to assess all listed parameters at once and to isolate the most clinically relevant gait parameters for moderate to severe hallux valgus deformity with the intent of improving post-operative patient prognosis and rehabilitation. METHODS: The study included 26 feet with moderate to severe hallux valgus deformity and 30 feet with no sign of hallux valgus in female participants. Initially, weight bearing radiographs and foot and ankle clinical scores were assessed. Gait assessment was then performed utilizing pressure insoles (PEDAR®) and inertial sensors (Physilog®) and the two groups were compared using a non-parametric statistical hypothesis test (Wilcoxon rank sum, P<0.05). Furthermore, forward stepwise regression was used to reduce the number of gait parameters to the most clinically relevant and correlation of these parameters was assessed with the clinical score. FINDINGS: Overall, the results showed clear deterioration in several gait parameters in the hallux valgus group compared to controls and 9 gait parameters (effect size between 1.03 and 1.76) were successfully isolated to best describe the altered gait in hallux valgus deformity (r(2)=0.71) as well as showed good correlation with clinical scores. INTERPRETATION: Our results, and nine listed parameters, could serve as benchmark for characterization of hallux valgus and objective evaluation of treatment efficacy.

Screening for ALK in non-small cell lung carcinomas: 5A4 and D5F3 antibodies perform equally well, but combined use with FISH is recommended.

OBJECTIVES: Immunohistochemistry (IHC) has become a promising method for pre-screening ALK-rearrangements in non-small cell lung carcinomas (NSCLC). Various ALK antibodies, detection systems and automated immunostainers are available. We therefore aimed to compare the performance of the monoclonal 5A4 (Novocastra, Leica) and D5F3 (Cell Signaling, Ventana) antibodies using two different immunostainers. Additionally we analyzed the accuracy of prospective ALK IHC-testing in routine diagnostics. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Seventy-two NSCLC with available ALK FISH results and enriched for FISH-positive carcinomas were retrospectively analyzed. IHC was performed on BenchMarkXT (Ventana) using 5A4 and D5F3, respectively, and additionally with 5A4 on Bond-MAX (Leica). Data from our routine diagnostics on prospective ALK-testing with parallel IHC, using 5A4, and FISH were available from 303 NSCLC. RESULTS: All three IHC protocols showed congruent results. Only 1/25 FISH-positive NSCLC (4%) was false negative by IHC. For all three IHC protocols the sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) compared to FISH were 96%, 100%, 100% and 97.8%, respectively. In the prospective cohort 3/32 FISH-positive (9.4%) and 2/271 FISH-negative (0.7%) NSCLC were false negative and false positive by IHC, respectively. In routine diagnostics the sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of IHC compared to FISH were 90.6%, 99.3%, 93.5% and 98.9%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: 5A4 and D5F3 are equally well suited for detecting ALK-rearranged NSCLC. BenchMark and BOND-MAX immunostainers can be used for IHC with 5A4. True discrepancies between IHC and FISH results do exist and need to be addressed when implementing IHC in an ALK-testing algorithm.

Quest for Orthologs Entails Quest for Tree of Life: In Search of the Gene Stream.

Quest for Orthologs (QfO) is a community effort with the goal to improve and benchmark orthology predictions. As quality assessment assumes prior knowledge on species phylogenies, we investigated the congruency between existing species trees by comparing the relationships of 147 QfO reference organisms from six Tree of Life (ToL)/species tree projects: The National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) taxonomy, Opentree of Life, the sequenced species/species ToL, the 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) database, and trees published by Ciccarelli et al. (Ciccarelli FD, et al. 2006. Toward automatic reconstruction of a highly resolved tree of life. Science 311:1283-1287) and by Huerta-Cepas et al. (Huerta-Cepas J, Marcet-Houben M, Gabaldon T. 2014. A nested phylogenetic reconstruction approach provides scalable resolution in the eukaryotic Tree Of Life. PeerJ PrePrints 2:223) Our study reveals that each species tree suggests a different phylogeny: 87 of the 146 (60%) possible splits of a dichotomous and rooted tree are congruent, while all other splits are incongruent in at least one of the species trees. Topological differences are observed not only at deep speciation events, but also within younger clades, such as Hominidae, Rodentia, Laurasiatheria, or rosids. The evolutionary relationships of 27 archaea and bacteria are highly inconsistent. By assessing 458,108 gene trees from 65 genomes, we show that consistent species topologies are more often supported by gene phylogenies than contradicting ones. The largest concordant species tree includes 77 of the QfO reference organisms at the most. Results are summarized in the form of a consensus ToL (http://swisstree.vital-it.ch/species_tree) that can serve different benchmarking purposes.

Performance Analysis of Two Quantum Reaction Dynamics Codes: Time-Dependent and Time-Independent Strategies

The computer simulation of reaction dynamics has nowadays reached a remarkable degree of accuracy. Triatomic elementary reactions are rigorously studied with great detail on a straightforward basis using a considerable variety of Quantum Dynamics computational tools available to the scientific community. In our contribution we compare the performance of two quantum scattering codes in the computation of reaction cross sections of a triatomic benchmark reaction such as the gas phase reaction Ne + H2+ %12. NeH++ H. The computational codes are selected as representative of time-dependent (Real Wave Packet [ ]) and time-independent (ABC [ ]) methodologies. The main conclusion to be drawn from our study is that both strategies are, to a great extent, not competing but rather complementary. While time-dependent calculations advantages with respect to the energy range that can be covered in a single simulation, time-independent approaches offer much more detailed information from each single energy calculation. Further details such as the calculation of reactivity at very low collision energies or the computational effort related to account for the Coriolis couplings are analyzed in this paper.

The Role of Logistics as a Competitiveness Factor when Entering New Markets

Tämän diplomityön tarkoituksena on löytää halvin tapa kohdeyrityksen tuotteiden saamiseksi määritellyille kohdemarkkinoille. Logistiset kustannukset ovat erityisen tärkeässä asemassa esimerkkitoimialalla, ja käytettävissä olevien logististen ratkaisujen kirjo tekee tehtävästä erityisen haastavan. Yrityksen ja teollisuudenalan erityispiirteiden esittelyn jälkeen valitaan sopiva tapa päästä markkinoille, minkä lisäksi pohditaan erilaisia kilpailustrategioita yrityksen aikaisempien kokemusten ja teoreettisen käsittelyn pohjalta. Tämä pohdinta on erilaisten analyysimenetelmien esittelyn lisäksi työn empiirisen osan taustalla. Logistiikkaympäristön ymmärtäminen ja sen tarjoamien mahdollisuuksien tunnistaminen ovat tärkeimmällä sijalla koko tutkimuksen ajan. Työssä tarkastellaan myös vientilogistiikan ja kohdemarkkinoiden erityispiirteitä, joita sovelletaan harkitsemisenarvoisiin kuljetustapoihin. Mahdollisten logististen ratkaisujen kustannusrakenteen ja kilpailukyvyn selvittämiseksi päätöksenteon tueksi luodaan yksilölliset vuokaaviot yrityksen omien kokemusten ja eri logistiikkapalvelujen tarjoajien lausuntojen perusteella. Näin voidaan edelleen tunnistaa mielekkäimmät logistiset ketjut ja arvioida niiden kustannustehokkuutta sekä suorien logististen että laatukustannusten suhteen. Lisäksi esimerkkien avulla tarkastellaan mahdollisuuksia benchmarkkaukseen. Työn lopuksi suositellaan johtopäätösten pohjalta tulevia toimenpiteitä, jotta myös jatkossa saataisiin aikaan vastaavaa pohdintaa ja toimintaa.

Clinical determinants of early parasitological response to ACTs in African patients with uncomplicated falciparum malaria: a literature review and meta-analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum has emerged in the Greater Mekong sub-region and poses a major global public health threat. Slow parasite clearance is a key clinical manifestation of reduced susceptibility to artemisinin. This study was designed to establish the baseline values for clearance in patients from Sub-Saharan African countries with uncomplicated malaria treated with artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). METHODS: A literature review in PubMed was conducted in March 2013 to identify all prospective clinical trials (uncontrolled trials, controlled trials and randomized controlled trials), including ACTs conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa, between 1960 and 2012. Individual patient data from these studies were shared with the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) and pooled using an a priori statistical analytical plan. Factors affecting early parasitological response were investigated using logistic regression with study sites fitted as a random effect. The risk of bias in included studies was evaluated based on study design, methodology and missing data. RESULTS: In total, 29,493 patients from 84 clinical trials were included in the analysis, treated with artemether-lumefantrine (n = 13,664), artesunate-amodiaquine (n = 11,337) and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (n = 4,492). The overall parasite clearance rate was rapid. The parasite positivity rate (PPR) decreased from 59.7 % (95 % CI: 54.5-64.9) on day 1 to 6.7 % (95 % CI: 4.8-8.7) on day 2 and 0.9 % (95 % CI: 0.5-1.2) on day 3. The 95th percentile of observed day 3 PPR was 5.3 %. Independent risk factors predictive of day 3 positivity were: high baseline parasitaemia (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.16 (95 % CI: 1.08-1.25); per 2-fold increase in parasite density, P <0.001); fever (>37.5 °C) (AOR = 1.50 (95 % CI: 1.06-2.13), P = 0.022); severe anaemia (AOR = 2.04 (95 % CI: 1.21-3.44), P = 0.008); areas of low/moderate transmission setting (AOR = 2.71 (95 % CI: 1.38-5.36), P = 0.004); and treatment with the loose formulation of artesunate-amodiaquine (AOR = 2.27 (95 % CI: 1.14-4.51), P = 0.020, compared to dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine). CONCLUSIONS: The three ACTs assessed in this analysis continue to achieve rapid early parasitological clearance across the sites assessed in Sub-Saharan Africa. A threshold of 5 % day 3 parasite positivity from a minimum sample size of 50 patients provides a more sensitive benchmark in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to the current recommended threshold of 10 % to trigger further investigation of artemisinin susceptibility.