Patterns of reporting to child protection services in Canada by healthcare and nonhealthcare professionals

Background: All Canadian jurisdictions require certain professionals to report suspected or observed child maltreatment. This study examined the types of maltreatment, level of harm and child functioning issues, controlling for family socioeconomic status, age and gender of the child reported by healthcare and non-healthcare professionals. Methods: We conducted chi-square analyses and logistic regression on a national child welfare sample from the 2003 Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect (CIS-2003) and compared the differences in professional reporting with its previous cycle (CIS-1998) using Bonferroni-corrected confidence intervals. Results: Our analysis of CIS-2003 data revealed that the majority of substantiated child maltreatment is reported to service agencies by non-healthcare professionals (57%), followed by non-professionals (33%) and healthcare professionals (10%). The number of professional reports increased 2.5 times between CIS-1998 and CIS-2003, while non-professionals’ increased 1.7 times. Of the total investigations, professional reports represented 59% in CIS-1998 and 67% in CIS-2003 (p<0.001). Compared to non-healthcare professionals, healthcare professionals more often reported younger children, children who experienced neglect and emotional maltreatment and those assessed as suffering harm and child functioning issues, but less often exposure to domestic violence. Conclusion: The results indicate that healthcare professionals played an important role in identifying children in need of protection considering harm and other child functioning issues. The authors discuss the reasons why underreporting is likely to remain an issue.

How current pedagogy methods in games teaching in the UK, Australia and the US have been shaped by historical, socio cultural, environmental and political constraints

Crucial to enhancing the status and quality of games teaching in schools is a developed understanding of the teaching strategies adopted by practitioners. In this paper, we will demonstrate that contemporary games‟ teaching is a product of individual, task and environmental constraints (Newell, 1986). More specifically, we will show that current pedagogy in the U.K., Australia and the United States is strongly influenced by historical, socio-cultural environmental and political constraints. In summary, we will aim to answer the question „why do teachers teach games the way they do.‟ In answering this question, we conclude that teacher educators, who are trying to influence pedagogical practice, must understand these potential constraints and provide appropriate pre-service experiences to give future physical education teachers the knowledge, confidence and ability to adopt a range of teaching styles when they become fully fledged teachers. Essential to this process is the need to enable future practitioners to base their pedagogical practice on a sound understanding of contemporary learning theories of skill acquisition.

The role of self-efficacy in dental patients’ brushing and flossing: Testing an extended Health Belief Model

Objective: In an effort to examine the decreasing oral health trend of Australian dental patients, the Health Belief Model (HBM) was utilised to understand the beliefs underlying brushing and flossing self-care. The HBM states that perception of severity and susceptibility to inaction and an estimate of the barriers and benefits of behavioural performance influences people’s health behaviours. Self-efficacy, confidence in one’s ability to perform oral self-care, was also examined. Methods: In dental waiting rooms, a community sample (N = 92) of dental patients completed a questionnaire assessing HBM variables and self-efficacy, as well as their performance of the oral hygiene behaviours of brushing and flossing. Results: Partial support only was found for the HBM with barriers emerging as the sole HBM factor influencing brushing and flossing behaviours. Self-efficacy significantly predicted both oral hygiene behaviours also. Conclusion: Support was found for the control factors, specifically a consideration of barriers and self-efficacy, in the context of understanding dental patients’ oral hygiene decisions. Practice implications: Dental professionals should encourage patients’ self-confidence to brush and floss at recommended levels and discuss strategies that combat barriers to performance, rather than emphasising the risks of inaction or the benefits of oral self-care.

Collaborative filtering recommender systems using tag information

Recommender Systems is one of the effective tools to deal with information overload issue. Similar with the explicit rating and other implicit rating behaviours such as purchase behaviour, click streams, and browsing history etc., the tagging information implies user’s important personal interests and preferences information, which can be used to recommend personalized items to users. This paper is to explore how to utilize tagging information to do personalized recommendations. Based on the distinctive three dimensional relationships among users, tags and items, a new user profiling and similarity measure method is proposed. The experiments suggest that the proposed approach is better than the traditional collaborative filtering recommender systems using only rating data.

Interestingness Measures for Multi-Level Association Rules

Association rule mining is one technique that is widely used when querying databases, especially those that are transactional, in order to obtain useful associations or correlations among sets of items. Much work has been done focusing on efficiency, effectiveness and redundancy. There has also been a focusing on the quality of rules from single level datasets with many interestingness measures proposed. However, with multi-level datasets now being common there is a lack of interestingness measures developed for multi-level and cross-level rules. Single level measures do not take into account the hierarchy found in a multi-level dataset. This leaves the Support-Confidence approach,which does not consider the hierarchy anyway and has other drawbacks, as one of the few measures available. In this paper we propose two approaches which measure multi-level association rules to help evaluate their interestingness. These measures of diversity and peculiarity can be used to help identify those rules from multi-level datasets that are potentially useful.

Drivers of adoption for successive generation of high-tech products

To understand the diffusion of high technology products such as PCs, digital cameras and DVD players it is necessary to consider the dynamics of successive generations of technology. From the consumer’s perspective, these technology changes may manifest themselves as either a new generation product substituting for the old (for instance digital cameras) or as multiple generations of a single product (for example PCs). To date, research has been confined to aggregate level sales models. These models consider the demand relationship between one generation of a product and a successor generation. However, they do not give insights into the disaggregate-level decisions by individual households – whether to adopt the newer generation, and if so, when. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large scale empirical study to collect household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in contrast to traditional analysis in diffusion research that conceptualizes technology substitution as an “adoption of innovation” type process, we propose that from a consumer’s perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing generation I product with generation II). Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear “substitutes” for the earlier generation (e.g. PCs Pentium I to II to III ). More commonly the new generation II technology is a “partial substitute” for existing generation I technology (e.g. DVD players and VCRs). Some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Moreover, drawing on adoption theory consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic for adoption timing of new products. Hence, we hypothesize consumer innovativeness to influence the timing of both additional and substitute generation II purchases but to have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases. We further propose that substitute generation II purchases act partially as a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Thus, we hypothesize that households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Methods We employ Cox hazard modeling to study factors influencing the timing of a household’s adoption of generation II products. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include size and income of household, age and education of decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases and substitute purchases. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD players and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks. Yet, also as hypothesized, there was no influence on additional purchases. This implies that there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Therefore marketers of high technology products can utilize data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

The roles and importance of formal and informal sources of business support in young firms : evidence from the UK’s 2008 Federation of Small Business Survey

Objectives This research explores the relationship between young firms, their growth orientation-intention and a range of relationships which can be seen to provide business support. Prior-work Research indicates that networks impact the firm’s ability to secure resources (Sirmon and Hitt 2003; Liao and Welsch. 2004; Hanlon and Saunders 2007). Networks have been evaluated in a number of ways ranging from simple counts to characteristics of their composition (Davidsson and Honig 2003), strength of relationships (Granovetter 1973) and network diversity (Carter et al 2003). By providing access to resources and knowledge (from start-up assistance and raising capital, (e.g. Smallbone et al, 2003), networks may assist in enabling continued persistence during those times where firms may experience resource constraints owing to firm growth (Baker and Nelson 2005). Approach The data used in this research was generated in the 2008 UK Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) survey. Over 1,000 of the firms responding were found to fall into the category of “young”, ((defined as firms under 4 years old). Firms were considered the unit of analysis with the entrepreneur being the chief spokesperson for the firm. Preliminary data analysis considered key demographic characteristics and industry classifications, comparing the FSB data with that of the UK government’s own (BERR) Small Business Surveys of 2007 and 2008, to establish some degree of representativeness of the respondents. The analysis then examined networks with varying potential ability to provide support for young firms, the networks measured in terms of number, diversity, characteristic and strength in its relationship to young firm growth orientation. The diversity of business-support-related relationships ranged from friends and family, through professional services, customers and suppliers, and government business services, to trade associations and informal business networks. The characteristics of these formal and informal sources of support for new businesses are examined across a range of business support-type activities for new firms. The number of relationships and types of business support are also explored. Finally, the strength of these relationships is examined by analysis of the source of business support, type of business support, and links to the growth orientation-intention of the firm, after controlling for a number of key variables related to firm and industry status and owner characteristics. Results Preliminary analysis of the data by means of univariate analysis showed that average number of sources of advice was around 2.5 (from a potential total of 6). In terms of the diversity of relationships, universities had by far the smallest percentage of firms receiving beneficial advice from them. Government business services were beneficially used by 40% of young firms, the other relationship types being around the 50-55% mark. In terms of characteristics of the advice, the average number of areas in which benefit was achieved was around 5.5 of a maximum of 15. Start-up advice has by far the highest percentage of firms obtaining beneficial advice, with increasing sales, improving contacts and improving confidence being the other categories at or around the 50% mark. Other market-focused areas where benefits were also received were in the areas of new markets, existing product improvements and new product improvements, where around 40% of the young responding firms obtained benefit. Regression techniques evaluating the strength of these relationships in terms of the links between business support (by source of support, type of support, and range of support) and firm growth orientation-intention focus highlighted a number of significant relationships, even after controlling for a range of other explanatory variables identified in the literature. Specifically, there was found to be a positive relationship between receiving business advice generally (regardless of type or source) and growth orientation. This relationship was seen to be stronger, however, when looking at the number of types of beneficial advice received, and stronger again for the number of sources of this advice. In terms of individual sources of advice, customers and suppliers had the strongest relationship with growth, with Government business services also found to be significant. Combining these two sources was also seen to increase the strength of the relationship between these two sources of advice and growth orientation. In considering areas of support, growth was most strongly positively related to advice that benefited the development of new products and services, and also business confidence, but was negatively related to advice linked to business recovery. Finally, amalgamating the 4 key types and sources of advice to examine the impact of combinations of these types and sources of advice also improved the strength of the relationship. Implications The findings will assist in the understanding of young firms in general and growth more specifically, particularly the role and importance of specific sources, types and combinations of business support used more extensively by new young growth-oriented firms. Value This research may assist in processes designed to allow entrepreneurs to make better decisions; educators and support organizations to develop better advice and assistance, and Governments design better conditions for the creation of new growth-oriented businesses.

Fashion retailing and the bottom line : The effects of generational cohorts, gender, fashion fanship, attitudes and impulse buying on fashion expenditure

This study examines the influence of demographic ( eg. gender and generational cohort) and psychographic ( eg. fashion fanship, attitudes and impulse buying) drivers on frequency and levels of expenditure on fanship purchases, Using regression analysis, the results suggest that for weekly and monthly expenditure, gender and fashion fanship were significant influences, while for yearly expenditure, gender and impulse buying were significant. Attitudes towards fanship had no significant influence on expenditure. Females purchase more often and were significantly different from males on yearly expenditure, fashion fanship, attitudes and impulse buying. Generation Y is higher on purchase frequency, fashion fanship, attitudes and impulse buying compared with other cohorts under investigation.

Weather variability, sunspots, and the blooms of cyanobacteria

The roles of weather variability and sunspots in the occurrence of cyanobacteria blooms, were investigated using cyanobacteria cell data collected from the Fred Haigh Dam, Queensland, Australia. Time series generalized linear model and classification and regression (CART) model were used in the analysis. Data on notified cell numbers of cyanobacteria and weather variables over the periods 2001 and 2005 were provided by the Australian Department of Natural Resources and Water, and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. The results indicate that monthly minimum temperature (relative risk [RR]: 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.25) and rainfall (RR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.03-1.20) had a positive association, but relative humidity (RR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.91-0.98) and wind speed (RR:0.90; 95% CI: 0.82-0.98) were negatively associated with the cyanobacterial numbers, after adjustment for seasonality and auto-correlation. The CART model showed that the cyanobacteria numbers were best described by an interaction between minimum temperature, relative humidity, and sunspot numbers. When minimum temperature exceeded 18%C and relative humidity was under 66%, the number of cyanobacterial cells rose by 2.15-fold. We conclude that the weather variability and sunspot activity may affect cyanobacterial blooms in dams.

Inequalities in cardiovascular disease mortality : the role of behavioural, physiological and social risk factors

Background: While the relationship between socioeconomic disadvantage and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well established, the role that traditional cardiovascular risk factors play in this association remains unclear. We examined the association between education attainment and CVD mortality and the extent to which behavioural, social and physiological factors explained this relationship. Methods: Adults (n=38 355) aged 40-69 years living in Melbourne, Australia were recruited in 1990-1994. Subjects with baseline CVD risk factor data ascertained through questionnaire and physical measurement were followed for an average of 9.4 years with CVD deaths verified by review of medical records and autopsy reports. Results: CVD mortality was higher for those with primary education only compared to those who had completed tertiary education, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.66 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-2.49) after adjustment for age, country of birth and gender. Those from the lowest educated group had a more adverse cardiovascular risk factor profile compared to the highest educated group, and adjustment for these risk factors reduced the HR to 1.18 (95% CI 0.78-1.77). In analysis of individual risk factors, smoking and waist circumference explained most of the difference in CVD mortality between the highest and lowest education groups. Conclusions: Most of the excess CVD mortality in lower socioeconomic groups can be explained by known risk factors, particularly smoking and overweight. While targeting cardiovascular risk factors should not divert efforts from addressing the underlying determinants of health inequalities, it is essential that known risk factors are addressed effectively among lower socioeconomic groups.

A multilevel study of area socio-economic status and food purchasing behaviour

Objective: This study examined the association between area socioeconomic status (SES) and food purchasing behaviour.----- Setting: Melbourne city, Australia, 2003.----- Participants: Residents of 2,564 households located in 50 small areas.----- Design: Data were collected by mail survey (64.2% response rate). Area SES was indicated by the proportion of households in each area earning less than Aus$400 per week, and individual-level socioeconomic position was measured using education, occupation, and household income. Food purchasing was measured on the basis of compliance with dietary guideline recommendations (for grocery foods) and variety of fruit and vegetable purchase. Multilevel regression examined the association between area SES and food purchase after adjustment for individual-level demographic (age, sex, household composition) and socioeconomic factors.----- Results: Residents of low SES areas were significantly less likely than their counterparts in advantaged areas to purchase grocery foods that were high in fibre and low in fat, salt, and sugar; and they purchased a smaller variety of fruits. There was no evidence of an association between area SES and vegetable variety.----- Conclusions In Melbourne, area SES was associated with some food purchasing behaviours independent of individual-level factors, suggesting that areas in this city may be differentiated on the basis of food availability, accessibility, and affordability, making the purchase of some types of foods more difficult in disadvantaged areas.

Temperature variation and emergency hospital admissions for stroke in Brisbane, Australia, 1996-2005

Stroke is a leading cause of disability and death. This study evaluated the association between temperature variation and emergency admissions for stroke in Brisbane, Australia. Daily emergency admissions for stroke, meteorologic and air pollution data were obtained for the period of January 1996 to December 2005. The relative risk of emergency admissions for stroke was estimated with a generalized estimating equations (GEE) model. For primary intracerebral hemorrhage (PIH) emergency admissions, the average daily PIH for the group aged < 65 increased by 15% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 5, 26%) and 12% (95% CI: 2, 22%) for a 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature in summer, respectively, after controlling for potential confounding effects of humidity and air pollutants. For ischemic stroke (IS) emergency admissions, the average daily IS for the group aged ≥ 65 decreased by 3% (95% CI: -6, 0%) for a 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature in winter after adjustment for confounding factors. Temperature variation was significantly associated with emergency admissions for stroke, and its impact varied with different type of stroke. Health authorities should pay greater attention to possible increasing emergency care for strokes when temperature changes, in both summer and winter.

An experimental and finite element investigation of the biomechanics of vertebral compression fractures

Osteoporosis is a disease characterized by low bone mass and micro-architectural deterioration of bone tissue, with a consequent increase in bone fragility and susceptibility to fracture. Osteoporosis affects over 200 million people worldwide, with an estimated 1.5 million fractures annually in the United States alone, and with attendant costs exceeding $10 billion dollars per annum. Osteoporosis reduces bone density through a series of structural changes to the honeycomb-like trabecular bone structure (micro-structure). The reduced bone density, coupled with the microstructural changes, results in significant loss of bone strength and increased fracture risk. Vertebral compression fractures are the most common type of osteoporotic fracture and are associated with pain, increased thoracic curvature, reduced mobility, and difficulty with self care. Surgical interventions, such as kyphoplasty or vertebroplasty, are used to treat osteoporotic vertebral fractures by restoring vertebral stability and alleviating pain. These minimally invasive procedures involve injecting bone cement into the fractured vertebrae. The techniques are still relatively new and while initial results are promising, with the procedures relieving pain in 70-95% of cases, medium-term investigations are now indicating an increased risk of adjacent level fracture following the procedure. With the aging population, understanding and treatment of osteoporosis is an increasingly important public health issue in developed Western countries. The aim of this study was to investigate the biomechanics of spinal osteoporosis and osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures by developing multi-scale computational, Finite Element (FE) models of both healthy and osteoporotic vertebral bodies. The multi-scale approach included the overall vertebral body anatomy, as well as a detailed representation of the internal trabecular microstructure. This novel, multi-scale approach overcame limitations of previous investigations by allowing simultaneous investigation of the mechanics of the trabecular micro-structure as well as overall vertebral body mechanics. The models were used to simulate the progression of osteoporosis, the effect of different loading conditions on vertebral strength and stiffness, and the effects of vertebroplasty on vertebral and trabecular mechanics. The model development process began with the development of an individual trabecular strut model using 3D beam elements, which was used as the building block for lattice-type, structural trabecular bone models, which were in turn incorporated into the vertebral body models. At each stage of model development, model predictions were compared to analytical solutions and in-vitro data from existing literature. The incremental process provided confidence in the predictions of each model before incorporation into the overall vertebral body model. The trabecular bone model, vertebral body model and vertebroplasty models were validated against in-vitro data from a series of compression tests performed using human cadaveric vertebral bodies. Firstly, trabecular bone samples were acquired and morphological parameters for each sample were measured using high resolution micro-computed tomography (CT). Apparent mechanical properties for each sample were then determined using uni-axial compression tests. Bone tissue properties were inversely determined using voxel-based FE models based on the micro-CT data. Specimen specific trabecular bone models were developed and the predicted apparent stiffness and strength were compared to the experimentally measured apparent stiffness and strength of the corresponding specimen. Following the trabecular specimen tests, a series of 12 whole cadaveric vertebrae were then divided into treated and non-treated groups and vertebroplasty performed on the specimens of the treated group. The vertebrae in both groups underwent clinical-CT scanning and destructive uniaxial compression testing. Specimen specific FE vertebral body models were developed and the predicted mechanical response compared to the experimentally measured responses. The validation process demonstrated that the multi-scale FE models comprising a lattice network of beam elements were able to accurately capture the failure mechanics of trabecular bone; and a trabecular core represented with beam elements enclosed in a layer of shell elements to represent the cortical shell was able to adequately represent the failure mechanics of intact vertebral bodies with varying degrees of osteoporosis. Following model development and validation, the models were used to investigate the effects of progressive osteoporosis on vertebral body mechanics and trabecular bone mechanics. These simulations showed that overall failure of the osteoporotic vertebral body is initiated by failure of the trabecular core, and the failure mechanism of the trabeculae varies with the progression of osteoporosis; from tissue yield in healthy trabecular bone, to failure due to instability (buckling) in osteoporotic bone with its thinner trabecular struts. The mechanical response of the vertebral body under load is highly dependent on the ability of the endplates to deform to transmit the load to the underlying trabecular bone. The ability of the endplate to evenly transfer the load through the core diminishes with osteoporosis. Investigation into the effect of different loading conditions on the vertebral body found that, because the trabecular bone structural changes which occur in osteoporosis result in a structure that is highly aligned with the loading direction, the vertebral body is consequently less able to withstand non-uniform loading states such as occurs in forward flexion. Changes in vertebral body loading due to disc degeneration were simulated, but proved to have little effect on osteoporotic vertebra mechanics. Conversely, differences in vertebral body loading between simulated invivo (uniform endplate pressure) and in-vitro conditions (where the vertebral endplates are rigidly cemented) had a dramatic effect on the predicted vertebral mechanics. This investigation suggested that in-vitro loading using bone cement potting of both endplates has major limitations in its ability to represent vertebral body mechanics in-vivo. And lastly, FE investigation into the biomechanical effect of vertebroplasty was performed. The results of this investigation demonstrated that the effect of vertebroplasty on overall vertebra mechanics is strongly governed by the cement distribution achieved within the trabecular core. In agreement with a recent study, the models predicted that vertebroplasty cement distributions which do not form one continuous mass which contacts both endplates have little effect on vertebral body stiffness or strength. In summary, this work presents the development of a novel, multi-scale Finite Element model of the osteoporotic vertebral body, which provides a powerful new tool for investigating the mechanics of osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures at the trabecular bone micro-structural level, and at the vertebral body level.

Determining a set of surrogate parameters to evaluate urban stormwater quality

This thesis details methodology to estimate urban stormwater quality based on a set of easy to measure physico-chemical parameters. These parameters can be used as surrogate parameters to estimate other key water quality parameters. The key pollutants considered in this study are nitrogen compounds, phosphorus compounds and solids. The use of surrogate parameter relationships to evaluate urban stormwater quality will reduce the cost of monitoring and so that scientists will have added capability to generate a large amount of data for more rigorous analysis of key urban stormwater quality processes, namely, pollutant build-up and wash-off. This in turn will assist in the development of more stringent stormwater quality mitigation strategies. The research methodology was based on a series of field investigations, laboratory testing and data analysis. Field investigations were conducted to collect pollutant build-up and wash-off samples from residential roads and roof surfaces. Past research has identified that these impervious surfaces are the primary pollutant sources to urban stormwater runoff. A specially designed vacuum system and rainfall simulator were used in the collection of pollutant build-up and wash-off samples. The collected samples were tested for a range of physico-chemical parameters. Data analysis was conducted using both univariate and multivariate data analysis techniques. Analysis of build-up samples showed that pollutant loads accumulated on road surfaces are higher compared to the pollutant loads on roof surfaces. Furthermore, it was found that the fraction of solids smaller than 150 ìm is the most polluted particle size fraction in solids build-up on both roads and roof surfaces. The analysis of wash-off data confirmed that the simulated wash-off process adopted for this research agrees well with the general understanding of the wash-off process on urban impervious surfaces. The observed pollutant concentrations in wash-off from road surfaces were different to pollutant concentrations in wash-off from roof surfaces. Therefore, firstly, the identification of surrogate parameters was undertaken separately for roads and roof surfaces. Secondly, a common set of surrogate parameter relationships were identified for both surfaces together to evaluate urban stormwater quality. Surrogate parameters were identified for nitrogen, phosphorus and solids separately. Electrical conductivity (EC), total organic carbon (TOC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total suspended solids (TSS), total dissolved solids (TDS), total solids (TS) and turbidity (TTU) were selected as the relatively easy to measure parameters. Consequently, surrogate parameters for nitrogen and phosphorus were identified from the set of easy to measure parameters for both road surfaces and roof surfaces. Additionally, surrogate parameters for TSS, TDS and TS which are key indicators of solids were obtained from EC and TTU which can be direct field measurements. The regression relationships which were developed for surrogate parameters and key parameter of interest were of a similar format for road and roof surfaces, namely it was in the form of simple linear regression equations. The identified relationships for road surfaces were DTN-TDS:DOC, TP-TS:TOC, TSS-TTU, TDS-EC and TSTTU: EC. The identified relationships for roof surfaces were DTN-TDS and TSTTU: EC. Some of the relationships developed had a higher confidence interval whilst others had a relatively low confidence interval. The relationships obtained for DTN-TDS, DTN-DOC, TP-TS and TS-EC for road surfaces demonstrated good near site portability potential. Currently, best management practices are focussed on providing treatment measures for stormwater runoff at catchment outlets where separation of road and roof runoff is not found. In this context, it is important to find a common set of surrogate parameter relationships for road surfaces and roof surfaces to evaluate urban stormwater quality. Consequently DTN-TDS, TS-EC and TS-TTU relationships were identified as the common relationships which are capable of providing measurements of DTN and TS irrespective of the surface type.

Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?

Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performances of econometric model based and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the pre-ferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved, including the relative merit of combining forecasts and whether the relative performances of various forecasts are statistically different. By utilising recent econometric advances, this paper considers whether combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility are statistically superior to a wide range of model based forecasts and implied volatility. It is found that a combination of model based forecasts is the dominant approach, indicating that the implied volatility cannot simply be viewed as a combination of various model based forecasts. Therefore, while often viewed as a superior volatility forecast, the implied volatility is in fact an inferior forecast of S&P 500 volatility relative to model-based forecasts.