Software maintenance project delays prediction using Bayesian Networks

Managing software maintenance is rarely a precise task due to uncertainties concerned with resources and services descriptions. Even when a well-established maintenance process is followed, the risk of delaying tasks remains if the new services are not precisely described or when resources change during process execution. Also, the delay of a task at an early process stage may represent a different delay at the end of the process, depending on complexity or services reliability requirements. This paper presents a knowledge-based representation (Bayesian Networks) for maintenance project delays based on specialists experience and a corresponding tool to help in managing software maintenance projects. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Low cost selective sensor for carbonyl compounds in air based on a novel conductive poly(p-xylylene) derivative

A novel poly(p-xylylene), PPX, derivative bearing phenyl side groups was electrochemically synthesized in 85% yield. The polymer, poly(2-phenyl-p-xylylene) (PPPX), presented a major fraction (88%) soluble in common organic solvents. It showed to be thermally resistant up to 140 degrees C. UV-VIS analysis revealed an Egap of similar to 3.0 eV. Gas sensors made from thin films of CSA doped PPPX deposited on interdigitated electrodes exhibited significant changes in electrical conductance upon exposure to five carbonyl compounds: acetaldehyde, propionaldehyde. benzaldehyde, acetone and butanone. Three-dimensional plots of relative response vs. time of half-response vs. time of half-recovery showed good discrimination between the five carbonyl Compounds tested. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Studie till uppstartande av annonskatalog

Sten Jonsson wants to start a production of an advertising catalogue for small companies in Sweden. Acatalogue where the advertisingcost is so low that most of the companies can afford to participate. Thecompanies who will advertise should be manufacturing companies in trades of carpentry, sheet metalworkshops, forging workshops and engineering workshops.The catalogue will facilitate for the manufacturer to reach the costumer without any middleman.Without a middleman creates a possibility for an opinion about the product at the same time as theprice can be held low. A catalogue of this type would benefit the marketing of the companies at the sametime as it would generate an occasion for innovations.The possible target groups are property companies, construct companies and farmers.A market research has been carried out contained a postal interview and a phone interview. Themarket research carried out to get an understanding in what the companies think about the idea butalso to see if the companies are in interest of advertise in the catalogue. Unfortunately the marketresearch became unusable when only three of thirty companies comment the idea and two of themwanted to meet for a further visit. In relation to the market research a deeper study in market research,in which essential parts for the project, was made.A dummie has been done to show the design of the catalogue.A calculation has also been done to get an understanding in what the project would cost to start.

Improved Road Design for Future Maintenance - Analysis of Road Barrier Repair Costs

The cost of a road construction over its service life is a function of the design, quality of construction, maintenance strategies and maintenance operations. Unfortunately, designers often neglect a very important aspect which is the possibility to perform future maintenance activities. The focus is mainly on other aspects such as investment costs, traffic safety, aesthetic appearance, regional development and environmental effects. This licentiate thesis is a part of a Ph.D. project entitled “Road Design for lower maintenance costs” that aims to examine how the life-cycle costs can be optimized by selection of appropriate geometrical designs for the roads and their components. The result is expected to give a basis for a new method used in the road planning and design process using life-cycle cost analysis with particular emphasis on road maintenance. The project started with a review of literature with the intention to study conditions causing increased needs for road maintenance, the efforts made by the road authorities to satisfy those needs and the improvement potential by consideration of maintenance aspects during planning and design. An investigation was carried out to identify the problems which obstruct due consideration of maintenance aspects during the road planning and design process. This investigation focused mainly on the road planning and design process at the Swedish Road Administration. However, the road planning and design process in Denmark, Finland and Norway were also roughly evaluated to gain a broader knowledge about the research subject. The investigation was carried out in two phases: data collection and data analysis. Data was collected by semi-structured interviews with expert actors involved in planning, design and maintenance and by a review of design-related documents. Data analyses were carried out using a method called “Change Analysis”. This investigation revealed a complex combination of problems which result in inadequate consideration of maintenance aspects. Several urgent needs for changes to eliminate these problems were identified. Another study was carried out to develop a model for calculation of the repair costs for damages of different road barrier types and to analyse how factors such as road type, speed limits, barrier types, barrier placement, type of road section, alignment and seasonal effects affect the barrier damages and the associated repair costs. This study was carried out using a method called the “Case Study Research Method”. Data was collected from 1087 barrier repairs in two regional offices of the Swedish Road Administration, the Central Region and the Western Region. A table was established for both regions containing the repair cost per vehicle kilometre for different combinations of barrier types, road types and speed limits. This table can be used by the designers in the calculation of the life-cycle costs for different road barrier types.

Road Design for Future Maintenance : Life-cycle Cost Analyses for Road Barriers

The cost of a road construction over its service life is a function of design, quality of construction as well as maintenance strategies and operations. An optimal life-cycle cost for a road requires evaluations of the above mentioned components. Unfortunately, road designers often neglect a very important aspect, namely, the possibility to perform future maintenance activities. Focus is mainly directed towards other aspects such as investment costs, traffic safety, aesthetic appearance, regional development and environmental effects. This doctoral thesis presents the results of a research project aimed to increase consideration of road maintenance aspects in the planning and design process. The following subgoals were established: Identify the obstacles that prevent adequate consideration of future maintenance during the road planning and design process; and Examine optimisation of life-cycle costs as an approach towards increased efficiency during the road planning and design process. The research project started with a literature review aimed at evaluating the extent to which maintenance aspects are considered during road planning and design as an improvement potential for maintenance efficiency. Efforts made by road authorities to increase efficiency, especially maintenance efficiency, were evaluated. The results indicated that all the evaluated efforts had one thing in common, namely ignorance of the interrelationship between geometrical road design and maintenance as an effective tool to increase maintenance efficiency. Focus has mainly been on improving operating practises and maintenance procedures. This fact might also explain why some efforts to increase maintenance efficiency have been less successful. An investigation was conducted to identify the problems and difficulties, which obstruct due consideration of maintainability during the road planning and design process. A method called “Change Analysis” was used to analyse data collected during interviews with experts in road design and maintenance. The study indicated a complex combination of problems which result in inadequate consideration of maintenance aspects when planning and designing roads. The identified problems were classified into six categories: insufficient consulting, insufficient knowledge, regulations and specifications without consideration of maintenance aspects, insufficient planning and design activities, inadequate organisation and demands from other authorities. Several urgent needs for changes to eliminate these problems were identified. One of the problems identified in the above mentioned study as an obstacle for due consideration of maintenance aspects during road design was the absence of a model for calculating life-cycle costs for roads. Because of this lack of knowledge, the research project focused on implementing a new approach for calculating and analysing life-cycle costs for roads with emphasis on the relationship between road design and road maintainability. Road barriers were chosen as an example. The ambition is to develop this approach to cover other road components at a later stage. A study was conducted to quantify repair rates for barriers and associated repair costs as one of the major maintenance costs for road barriers. A method called “Case Study Research Method” was used to analyse the effect of several factors on barrier repairs costs, such as barrier type, road type, posted speed and seasonal effect. The analyses were based on documented data associated with 1625 repairs conducted in four different geographical regions in Sweden during 2006. A model for calculation of average repair costs per vehicle kilometres was created. Significant differences in the barrier repair costs were found between the studied barrier types. In another study, the injuries associated with road barrier collisions and the corresponding influencing factors were analysed. The analyses in this study were based on documented data from actual barrier collisions between 2005 and 2008 in Sweden. The result was used to calculate the cost for injuries associated with barrier collisions as a part of the socio-economic cost for road barriers. The results showed significant differences in the number of injuries associated with collisions with different barrier types. To calculate and analyse life-cycle costs for road barriers a new approach was developed based on a method called “Activity-based Life-cycle Costing”. By modelling uncertainties, the presented approach gives a possibility to identify and analyse factors crucial for optimising life-cycle costs. The study showed a great potential to increase road maintenance efficiency through road design. It also showed that road components with low investment costs might not be the best choice when including maintenance and socio-economic aspects. The difficulties and problems faced during the collection of data for calculating life-cycle costs for road barriers indicated a great need for improving current data collecting and archiving procedures. The research focused on Swedish road planning and design. However, the conclusions can be applied to other Nordic countries, where weather conditions and road design practices are similar. The general methodological approaches used in this research project may be applied also to other studies.

Quality management for vital forest tree seedlings : Final report, Project no: P33854-1

The work concerns development of a prototype molecular tests to identify vitality status of conifer seedlings. The work is done by NSure, Holland, Dalarna University and SUAS. In case for spruce, a successful validation experiment has been performed to validate the identified frost tolerance and vitality genes. Multiple indicators were identified that can be used to either reinforce the existing ColdnSure test, but also for development of a vitality test. The identified frost tolerance and vitality genes for pine still need to be validated. NSure together with Dalarna University aim to perform a validation next season. Multiple LN indicators were identified in spruce that can be used to determine the effectiveness of a LN treatment, but they are not yet validated. In spruce and pine hardly any scientific research is performed to study the effect of a LN treatment, particularly not at molecular level. Therefore NSure together with Dalarna Research Station want to apply for a project. Within this project, we would be able to develop the tests further.

Demonstration of Solar Heating and Cooling System using Sorption Integrated Solar Thermal Collectors

Producing cost-competitive small and medium-sized solar cooling systems is currently a significant challenge. Due to system complexity, extensive engineering, design and equipment costs; the installation costs of solar thermal cooling systems are prohibitively high. In efforts to overcome these limitations, a novel sorption heat pump module has been developed and directly integrated into a solar thermal collector. The module comprises a fully encapsulated sorption tube containing hygroscopic salt sorbent and water as a refrigerant, sealed under vacuum with no moving parts. A 5.6m2 aperture area outdoor laboratory-scale system of sorption module integrated solar collectors was installed in Stockholm, Sweden and evaluated under constant re-cooling and chilled fluid return temperatures in order to assess collector performance. Measured average solar cooling COP was 0.19 with average cooling powers between 120 and 200 Wm-2 collector aperture area. It was observed that average collector cooling power is constant at daily insolation levels above 3.6 kWhm-2 with the cooling energy produced being proportional to solar insolation. For full evaluation of an integrated sorption collector solar heating and cooling system, under the umbrella of a European Union project for technological innovation, a 180 m2 large-scale demonstration system has been installed in Karlstad, Sweden. Results from the installation commissioned in summer 2014 with non-optimised control strategies showed average electrical COP of 10.6 and average cooling powers between 140 and 250 Wm-2 collector aperture area. Optimisation of control strategies, heat transfer fluid flows through the collectors and electrical COP will be carried out in autumn 2014.

The use of capital budgeting and cost of capital estimation methods in Swedish listed companies

In this paper Swedish listed companies’ use of capital budgeting and cost of capital estimation methods in 2005 and 2008 are examined. The relation between company characteristics and choice of methods is investigated and both within-country longitudinal and cross-country comparisons are made. Larger companies seem to have used capital budgeting methods more frequently than smaller companies. When compared to U.S. and continental European companies, Swedish listed companies employed capital budgeting methods less frequently. In 2005 the most common method for establishing the cost of equity was by asking the investors what return they required. By 2008 CAPM was instead the most utilised method, which could indicate greater sophistication. The use of project risk when evaluating investments also seems to have gained in popularity, while the use of company risk declined. Overall, the use of sophisticated capital budgeting and cost of capital estimation methods seem to be rising and the use of less sophisticated methods declining.

Estudos de caso : implantação de sistemas ERP - uma análise crítica à luz da metodologia de Project Management

Este documento constitui-se em uma dissertação de mestrado, requisito parcial para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Gestão Empresaria e Pública. Este estudo procura mostrar que a adoção dessa nova tecnologia através de projetos de implantação de sistema de ERP não só mudam processos administrativos como também produtos, serviços e estruturas organizacionais e que a sua implantação se constitui em um grande projeto que envolve um número considerável de recursos e tempo das organizações. Este estudo procurar mostrar também que os impactos que tais projetos trazem, são mais fortemente sentidos ou não pela organização de acordo com uma série de fatores, entre eles, a resistência à mudança e o quanto a organização está preparada para enfrentar essas mudanças, o medo da perda do emprego pela adoção de uma nova tecnologia, problemas com a falta de comunicação das mudanças, questões relacionadas à cultura organizacional vigente, a falta de envolvimento da alta administração, entre outras. Para gerenciar todas essas variáveis, as organizações modernas adotam técnicas para garantir o sucesso da implantação dessas novas tecnologias. o estudo aqui proposto tem como objetivo determinar até que ponto a utilização de metodologias e de técnicas de Project Management é o suficiente para que esses projetos alcancem o sucesso esperado pelas organizações. A quantidade de variáveis que influenciam o resultado de um projeto são muitas e cada uma delas possui um papel importante que deve ser avaliado. As conclusões desta pesquisa demonstram que o sucesso de um projeto nem sempre se resume a atingir os objetivos inicialmente propostos, relativos ao cumprimento do prazo, escopo e custo de um projeto, conforme define a metodologia de Project Management. Outros aspectos considerados por essa metodologia, se melhor ou pior aplicados, também contribuem para o sucesso ou fracasso de um projeto de implantação de um sistema de ERP sendo o seu fracasso traduzido ou não, no cumprimento do prazo, do escopo inicialmente previsto ou no custo inicialmente calculado. Outros aspectos que não apenas a aplicação correta da metodologia de Project Management contribuem para os resultados alcançados pelo projeto.

The marginal cost of funds from public sector borrowing

An expression for the welfare cost of a marginal increase in the public debt is derived using a simple AK endogenous growth model. This measure of the marginal cost of public funds (MCF) can be interpreted as the marginal benefit-cost ratio that a debtfinanced public project needs in order to generate a net social gain. The model predicts an increase in the public debt ratio will have little effect on the optimal public expenditure ratio and that most of the adjustment will occur on the tax side of the budget.

Estudo da viabilidade econômica em campos maduros

When it comes to oil and gas in Brazil is almost certain that we are referring to activities in deep waters off the coast of Campos, Rio de Janeiro, the main field of action of PETROBRAS and a small number of multinational oil companies . Since the Law 9.478/97 allows, by means of concessions, that other companies other than Petrobras, to explore and produce oil and gas domestically. Soon it moved, then the private companies that want small and medium-sized businesses to invest in such activities, forming a segment of independent producers, as occurs in other countries. In this context, this work aims at making an economic feasibility study, is currently analyzing how this thread and focus on the factors that contribute to its development as well as those that constitute barriers. To this end, we conducted a survey examining some mature fields that are in production in order to capture cost information in the phases of project, operation and abandonment. The work also presents an analysis of the results obtained in the survey, identifying the costs higher. With the results obtained through the study used economic engineering tools such as NPV and IRR, using a variety of design scenarios, to study the economic viability of these fields. In scenario 4 was set a production of 4.0 m³ / d of oil, which is an expected average production for several of these fields, whose minimum value of a barrel of oil, to enable this field, was $ 55.00, this value well below what was being practiced in the market today.

Efeito da introdução de resíduo de cinza de forno cerâmico em massa para cerâmica estrutural

The red ceramics and structural ceramics, as they are known, include ceramic materials made by blocks of seals and structures, bricks, tiles, smail flagstones manacles, rustic floors and ornamental materials. Their fabrication uses raw material such as clay and clay sites, with some content of impurity. It has good durability and mechanical strength to compression, low cost, making it one of the mainly used materials in civil engineering. The incorporation of many industrial activities residue to ceramic products is a technological alternative for reducing the environmental impact caused by its carefree disposal. This incorporation can promote chemical change and inertness of metals from residue, by fixation in the glassy phase of ceramic during the burning stage. The main aim of this project is to study the technical feasibility of the addition of ceramic oven ash into formulations of mass for structural ceramics. In this project two kinds of clay (plastic and non-plastic) were used, as well as the ash from firewood used in the process of burning of structural ceramics. A group of experiments was outlined, which permitted the evaluation of the influence of the burning cycle in different temperatures of the ash content in formulations for ceramic blocks through technological properties, mechanical behavior and microstructure. Five samples were processed of each one of the masses of plastic and non-plastic clay without addition of ash and with addition of ash on the percentages of 10 % and 20 %, for temperatures of 850 °C, 950 °C, 1050 °C and 1150 °C, obtained through sinterization process. Among the studied compositions, the one which presented best performance was the mass of clay with 10 % of ash, at temperature of 1150 °C, with the smallest absorption of water, the smallest apparent porosity, specific apparent mass a bit over the others and greatest mechanical resistance to flexion. The composition made confirmed the technical feasibility of the use of ash in the mass for structural ceramics with maintenance of its necessary characteristics for its purposes

Metodologia de análise e diagnóstico de fratura em um componente automotivo sujeito a cargas cíclicas alternadas

The competitiveness of the trade generated by the higher availability of products with lower quality and cost promoted a new reality of industrial production with small clearances. Track deviations at the production are not discarded, uncertainties can statistically occur. The world consumer and the Brazilian one are supported by the consumer protection code, in lawsuits against the products poor quality. An automobile is composed of various systems and thousands of constituent parts, increasing the likelihood of failure. The dynamic and security systems are critical in relation to the consequences of possible failures. The investigation of the failure gives us the possibility of learning and contributing to various improvements. Our main purpose in this work is to develop a systematic, specific methodology by investigating the root cause of the flaw occurred on an axle end of the front suspension of an automobile, and to perform comparative data analyses between the fractured part and the project information. Our research was based on a flaw generated in an automotive suspension system involved in a mechanical judicial cause, resulting in property and personal damages. In the investigations concerning the analysis of mechanical flaws, knowledge on materials engineering plays a crucial role in the process, since it enables applying techniques for characterizing materials, relating the technical attributes required from a respective part with its structure of manufacturing material, thus providing a greater scientific contribution to the work. The specific methodology developed follows its own flowchart. In the early phase, the data in the records and information on the involved ones were collected. The following laboratory analyses were performed: macrography of the fracture, micrography with SEM (Scanning Electron Microscope) of the initial and final fracture, phase analysis with optical microscopy, Brinell hardness and Vickers microhardness analyses, quantitative and qualitative chemical analysis, by using X-ray fluorescence and optical spectroscopy for carbon analysis, qualitative study on the state of tension was done. Field data were also collected. In the analyses data of the values resulting from the fractured stock parts and the design values were compared. After the investigation, one concluded that: the developed methodology systematized the investigation and enabled crossing data, thus minimizing diagnostic error probability, the morphology of the fracture indicates failure by the fatigue mechanism in a geometrically propitious location, a tension hub, the part was subjected to low tensions by the sectional area of the final fracture, the manufacturing material of the fractured part has low ductility, the component fractured in an earlier moment than the one recommended by the manufacturer, the percentages of C, Si, Mn and Cr of the fractured part present values which differ from the design ones, the hardness value of the superior limit of the fractured part is higher than that of the design, and there is no manufacturing uniformity between stock and fractured part. The work will contribute to optimizing the guidance of the actions in a mechanical engineering judicial expertise

Development of a methodology for cost determination of wastewater treatment based on functional diagram

This work describes a methodology developed for determination of costs associated to products generated in a small wastewater treatment station for sanitary wastewater from a university campus. This methodology begins with plant component units identification, relating their fluid and thermodynamics features for each point marked in its process diagram. Following, its functional diagram is developed and its formulation is elaborated, in exergetic base, describing all equations for these points, which are the constraints for exergetic production cost problem and are used in equations to determine the costs associated to products generated in SWTS. This methodology was applied to a hypothetical system based on SWTS former parts and presented consistent results when compared to expected values based on previous exergetic expertise. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of weathered diesel oil as a low-cost raw material for biosurfactant production

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)