900 resultados para potential distribution


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The role of Pre- and Protohistoric anthropogenic land cover changes needs to be quantified i) to establish a baseline for comparison with current human impact on the environment and ii) to separate it from naturally occurring changes in our environment. Results are presented from the simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES) for pre-Bronze age demographic, technological and economic change. Using scaling parameters from the History Database of the Global Environment as well as GLUES-simulated population density and subsistence style, the land requirement for growing crops is estimated. The intrusion of cropland into potentially forested areas is translated into carbon loss due to deforestation with the dynamic global vegetation model VECODE. The land demand in important Prehistoric growth areas - converted from mostly forested areas - led to large-scale regional (country size) deforestation of up to 11% of the potential forest. In total, 29 Gt carbon were lost from global forests between 10 000 BC and 2000 BC and were replaced by crops; this value is consistent with other estimates of Prehistoric deforestation. The generation of realistic (agri-)cultural development trajectories at a regional resolution is a major strength of GLUES. Most of the pre-Bronze age deforestation is simulated in a broad farming belt from Central Europe via India to China. Regional carbon loss is, e.g., 5 Gt in Europe and the Mediterranean, 6 Gt on the Indian subcontinent, 18 Gt in East and Southeast Asia, or 2.3 Gt in subsaharan Africa.

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Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

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The distribution, type and quantity of marine litter accumulated on the bathyal and abyssal Mediterranean seafloor has been studied in the framework of the Spanish national projects PROMETEO and DOS MARES and the ESF-EuroDEEP project BIOFUN. Litter was collected with an otter trawl and Agassiz trawl while sampling for megafauna on the Blanes canyon and adjacent slope (Catalan margin, north-western Mediterranean) between 900 and 2700 m depth, and on the western, central and eastern Mediterranean basins at 1200, 2000 and 3000 m depth. All litter was sorted into 8 categories (hard plastic, soft plastic, glass, metal, clinker, fabric, longlines and fishing nets) and weighed. The distribution of litter was analysed in relation to depth, geographic area and natural (bathymetry, currents and rivers) and anthropogenic (population density and shipping routes) processes. The most abundant litter types were plastic, glass, metal and clinker. Lost or discarded fishing gear was also commonly found. On the Catalan margin, although the data indicated an accumulation of litter with increasing depth, mean weight was not significantly different between depths or between the open slope and the canyon. We propose that litter accumulated in the canyon, with high proportions of plastics, has predominantly a coastal origin, while litter collected on the open slope, dominated by heavy litter, is mostly ship-originated, especially at sites under major shipping routes. Along the trans-Mediterranean transect, although a higher amount of litter seemed to be found on the Western Mediterranean, differences of mean weight were not significant between the 3 geographic areas and the 3 depths. Here, the shallower sites, also closer to the coast, had a higher proportion of plastics than the deeper sites, which had a higher proportion of heavy litter and were often affected by shipping routes. The weight of litter was also compared to biomass of megafauna from the same samples. On the Blanes slope, the biomass of megafauna was significantly higher than the weight of litter between 900 and 2000 m depth and no significant differences were found at 2250 and 2700 m depth. Along the trans-Mediterranean transect, no significant differences were found between biomass and litter weight at all sites except in two sites: the Central Mediterranean at 1200 m depth, where biomass was higher than litter weight, and the Eastern Mediterranean at 1200 m depth, where litter weight was higher than biomass. The results are discussed in the framework of knowledge on marine litter accumulation, its potential impact on the habitat and fauna and the legislation addressing these issues.

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Within the generally oligotroph Arctic marine environment river outlets are favoured by many planktonic and benthic organisms due to their high input of organic carbon. The retention of pelagic larvae within nursery grounds and/or the ability to return to their parental grounds prior to settlement is one important factor for the persistence of benthic communities in such river influenced areas. The southern Kara Sea is strongly controlled by high freshwater inputs from the Ob and Yenisei Rivers, which create a pronounced bi-layered pycnocline with a warm fresh/brackish water layer on top and a cold high saline marine layer below. The dispersal of five meroplanktonic species and settled juveniles (the brittle star Ophiocten sericeum, and the polychaetes Micronephtys minuta, Nereimyra aphroditoides, Phyllodoce groenlandica and Prionospio cirrifera) in relation to the adult distribution patterns was investigated. For all apart from P. cirrifera the highest densities of larvae were found in the upper brackish water layer. To assess size-at-settlement, the body sizes of larvae and newly settled juveniles were estimated and compared. Dispersal patterns ranged from virtually no adaption to river run-off as in the common, stenohaline O. sericeum and M. minuta (7 ind./m**3, 459 µm) to local retention as in N. aphroditoides (7 ind./m**3, 541 µm) and P. groenlandica (0.5 ind./m**3, 1121 µm) retained by horizontal eddies created by the outflow. Adults of P. cirrifera, which were exclusively restricted to the estuary of the Yenisei River, showed a well adapted reproductive behaviour to ensure a high retention potential of their progenies. The larvae (1.5 ind./m**3, 1513 µm) were only present in the lower water layers, most probably taking advantage of the prevailing near bottom counter current retaining them within their hatching areas.

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Predicting species potential and future distribution has become a relevant tool in biodiversity monitoring and conservation. In this data article we present the suitability map of a virtual species generated based on two bioclimatic variables, and a dataset containing more than 700.000 random observations at the extent of Europe. The dataset includes spatial attributes such as, distance to roads, protected areas, country codes, and the habitat suitability of two spatially clustered species (grassland and forest species) and a wide spread species.

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The mid-Piacenzian (MP) warm period (3.264-3.025 Ma) has been identified as the most recent time in geologic history during which mean global surface temperatures were considerably warmer than today for a sustained period. This interval has therefore been proposed as a potential (albeit imperfect) analog for future climate change and as such, has received much scientific attention over the past two decades. Central to this research effort is the Pliocene Research, Interpretation, and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) project, an iterative paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the MP focused on increasing our understanding of warm-period climate forcings, dynamics, and feedbacks by providing three-dimensional data sets for general circulation models. A mainstay of the PRISM project has been the development of a global sea surface temperature (SST) data set based primarily upon quantitative analyses of planktic foraminifer assemblages, supplemented with geochemical SST estimates wherever possible. In order to improve spatial coverage of the PRISM faunal data set in the low and mid-latitude North Atlantic, this study provides a description of the MP planktic foraminifer assemblage from five Ocean Drilling Program sites (951, 958, 1006, 1062, and 1063) in the subtropical gyre, a region critical to Atlantic Ocean circulation and tropical heat advection. Assemblages from each core provide evidence for a temperature- and circulation-driven 5-10° northward displacement of MP faunal provinces, as well as regional shifts in planktic foraminifer populations linked to species ecology and interactions. General biogeographic trends also indicate that, relative to modern conditions, gyre circulation was stronger (particularly the Gulf Stream, North Atlantic Current, and North Equatorial Current) and meridionally broader. A comparison of mid-Piacenzian and modern North Atlantic planktic foraminifer assemblages suggests that low latitude western boundary currents were less than 1 °C warmer while eastern boundary currents were ~1-2 °C warmer, supporting the hypothesis of enhanced northward heat advection along western boundary currents and warming of high latitude Northeast Atlantic source regions for the Canary Current. These findings are consistent with a model of reduced meridional SST gradients, with little-to-no low latitude warming, and more vigorous ocean circulation. Results therefore support the theory that enhanced meridional overturn circulation and associated northward heat advection made an important contribution, in conjunction with elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, to the 2-3 °C global surface temperature increase (relative to today) and strong polar amplification of SST warmth during the MP warm period.

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Long chain 1,13- and 1,15-alkyl diols form the base of a number of recently proposed proxies used for climate reconstruction. However, the sources of these lipids and environmental controls on their distribution are still poorly constrained. We have analyzed the long chain alkyl diol (LCD) composition of cultures of ten eustigmatophyte species, with three species from different families grown at various temperatures, to identify the effect of species composition and growth temperature on the LCD distribution. The results were compared with the LCD distribution of sixty-two lake surface sediments, and with previously reported LCD distributions from marine environments. The different families within the Eustigmatophyceae show distinct LCD patterns, with the freshwater family Eustigmataceae most closely resembling LCD distributions in both marine and lake environments. Unlike the other two eustigmatophyte families analyzed (Monodopsidaceae and Goniochloridaceae), C28 and C30 1,13-alkyl diols and C30 and C32 1,15-alkyl diols are all relatively abundant in the family Eustigmataceae, while the mono-unsaturated C32 1,15-alkyl diol was below detection limit. In contrast to the marine environment, LCD distributions in lakes did not show a clear relationship with temperature. The Long chain Diol Index (LDI), a proxy previously proposed for sea surface temperature reconstruction, showed a relatively weak correlation (R2 = 0.33) with mean annual air temperature used as an approximation for annual mean surface temperature of the lakes. A much-improved correlation (R2 = 0.74, p-value<0.001) was observed applying a multiple linear regression analysis between LCD distributions and lake temperatures reconstructed using branched tetraether lipid distributions. The obtained regression model provides good estimates of temperatures for cultures of the family Eustigmataceae, suggesting that algae belonging to this family have an important role as a source for LCDs in lacustrine environments, or, alternatively, that the main sources of LCDs are similarly affected by temperature as the Eustigmataceae. The results suggest that LCDs may have the potential to be applicable as a palaeotemperature proxy for lacustrine environments, although further calibration work is still required.

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The distribution patterns of calcareous dinoflagellate cysts were studied in the classic Cretaceous Tertiary (K-T) boundary section of Stevns Klint, Denmark, focusing mainly on the response of the cyst association to an abrupt environmental catastrophe. A major part of the Fish Clay, which covers the K-T boundary at its base and is exposed in the investigated section, contains fallout produced by an asteroid impact. Calcareous dinoflagenate cysts are the best preserved remains of carbonate-producing phytoplankton in this layer. The potential of this group of microfossils for the analysis of survival strategies and extinction patterns has been underestimated. The cyst species of the investigated section can be grouped into four assemblages that represent victims, survivors, opportunists, and specially adapted forms. The victims (Pithonelloideae) were an extremely successful group throughout the Upper Cretaceous, but were restricted to the narrow outer shelf. This restriction minimized their spatial distribution, which generally should be large to facilitate escape from unfavorable conditions. Spatial restriction optimized the population decrease by mass mortality, disabling a successful recovery. In contrast, the survivors that became the dominating group in the Danian had a wide spatial range from the shelf environment to the oceanic realm. A unique calcareous dinocyst assemblage in the Fish Clay shows that even under the stressed conditions immediately following the impact event, some species flourished due to special adaptation or high ecological tolerance. The ability of these dinoflagellate species to form calcareous resting cysts in combination with their generally wide spatial distribution in a variety of environments appears to be the main reason for a low extinction rate at the K-T boundary as opposed to the high extinction rate of other phytoplankton groups, such as the coccolithophorids.

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Manganese nodules of the Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone (CCFZ) in the NE Pacific Ocean are highly enriched in Ni, Cu, Co, Mo and rare-earth elements, and thus may be the subject of future mining operations. Elucidating the depositional and biogeochemical processes that contribute to nodule formation, as well as the respective redox environment in both, water column and sediment, supports our ability to locate future nodule deposits and evaluates the potential ecological and environmental effects of future deep-sea mining. For these purposes we evaluated the local hydrodynamics and pore-water geochemistry with respect to the nodule coverage at four sites in the eastern CCFZ. Furthermore, we carried out selective leaching experiments at these sites in order to assess the potential mobility of Mn in the solid phase, and compared them with the spatial variations in sedimentation rates. We found that the oxygen penetration depth is 180 - 300 cm at all four sites, while reduction of Mn and NO3- is only significant below the oxygen penetration depth at sites with small or no nodules on the sediment surface. At the site without nodules, potential microbial respiration rates, determined by incubation experiments using 14C-labelled acetate, are slightly higher than at sites with nodules. Leaching experiments showed that surface sediments covered with big or medium-sized nodules are enriched in mobilizable Mn. Our deep oxygen measurements and pore-water data suggest that hydrogenetic and oxic-diagenetic processes control the present-day nodule growth at these sites, since free manganese from deeper sediments is unable to reach the sediment surface. We propose that the observed strong lateral contrasts in nodule size and abundance are sensitive to sedimentation rates, which in turn, are controlled by small-scale variations in seafloor topography and bottom-water current intensity.

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Sediments from holes drilled at 11 sites in the northern Gulf of Mexico during Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 96 were analyzed for calcareous nannofossil content. All sediments recovered are Holocene and late Pleistocene in age and are within the Emiliania huxleyi Zone. The datum level represented by the lowest stratigraphic occurrence of dominant E. huxleyi occurs at two sites (Sites 615 and 619) and can be dated at approximately 84,000 yr. ago at Site 619. Reworked Cretaceous nannofossils are generally common or abundant and dominate the floral assemblages of the late Wisconsin glacial sediments. When present, indigenous late Quaternary species are rare or few in abundance. Slight increases in the contemporaneous Quaternary component of the floral assemblages can be documented by the use of a calculated in s/fu/reworked ratio. This ratio, based on the relative abundances of the indigenous Quaternary taxa and reworked taxa, shows potential both for local correlations between drill sites and for correlation with glacio-eustatic fluctuations during the late Pleistocene.

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Distribution of Fe, Mn, P, Ti, Cu, Ni, Co, V, Cr, W, Mo, and As in the surface sediment layer on the section from the Hawaiian Islands to the coast of Mexico (Mexico section) is studied. Contents of all studied elements increase from biogenic-terrigenous sediments off the coast of Mexico to pelagic red clays of the Northeast Basin, and more sharply for mobile elements - Mn, Mo, Cu, Ni, Co, and As. In near Hawaii sediments rich in coarsely fragmented volcanic-terrigenous and pyroclastic material of basaltic composition with high contents of Ti, Fe, V, Cr, W, and P, contents of these elements increase sharply, and contents of Mn, Mo, Ni, Co, and Cu for the same reason decrease sharply in comparison with red clay. Abnormally high contents of Mn, Mo, Cu, Ni, Co, and As in the upper layer of hemipelagic and transition sediments of the Mexico section result from diagenetic redistribution and their accumulation on the surface. Processes of diagenetic redistribution in hemipelagic and transition sediment mass of the Mexico section are more rapid than in similar sediments of the Japan section due lower sedimentation rates and higher initial concentrations of Mn. Basic similarity of element distribution regularities in sediments of Japan and Mexico sections is shown.

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Major element geochemical composition was established for 59 tephra horizons from Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1150 and 1151, located in the Japan forearc. These data, encompassing typically between 15 and 30 individual shard analyses per tephra horizon, were used to investigate the degree to which sediment reworking, postdepositional geochemical alteration, and geochemical uniqueness of individual eruptives facilitate or impede the potential for establishing a tephrostratigraphical framework for the Japan Trench, as well as usage of the tephra record to document arc evolution. Evidence was found that hydration (termed phase 1 alteration) of glass shards increases with age in the Pliocene-Pleistocene, but there is no indication that element leaching (phase 2 alteration) has occurred. Post- or syn-depositional differences in preservational style are shown to have no significant bearing on tephrogeochemical homogeneity and suitability for tephrostratigraphical analysis. Overall, therefore, the volcaniclastic record is suitable for investigating medium- to long-term changes in arc geochemistry and, provided consideration is given to the potential for nonunique geochemical signatures, is suitable for erecting tephrochronological frameworks. A limited number of Pleistocene tephra correlations are suggested in furtherance of this framework goal.

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