From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions

The translation of an ensemble of model runs into a probability distribution is a common task in model-based prediction. Common methods for such ensemble interpretations proceed as if verification and ensemble were draws from the same underlying distribution, an assumption not viable for most, if any, real world ensembles. An alternative is to consider an ensemble as merely a source of information rather than the possible scenarios of reality. This approach, which looks for maps between ensembles and probabilistic distributions, is investigated and extended. Common methods are revisited, and an improvement to standard kernel dressing, called ‘affine kernel dressing’ (AKD), is introduced. AKD assumes an affine mapping between ensemble and verification, typically not acting on individual ensemble members but on the entire ensemble as a whole, the parameters of this mapping are determined in parallel with the other dressing parameters, including a weight assigned to the unconditioned (climatological) distribution. These amendments to standard kernel dressing, albeit simple, can improve performance significantly and are shown to be appropriate for both overdispersive and underdispersive ensembles, unlike standard kernel dressing which exacerbates over dispersion. Studies are presented using operational numerical weather predictions for two locations and data from the Lorenz63 system, demonstrating both effectiveness given operational constraints and statistical significance given a large sample.

Setting UK standards on the concept of control: an analysis of lobbying behaviour

The present study aims to contribute to an understanding of the complexity of lobbying activities within the accounting standard-setting process in the UK. The paper reports detailed content analysis of submission letters to four related exposure drafts. These preceded two accounting standards that set out the concept of control used to determine the scope of consolidation in the UK, except for reporting under international standards. Regulation on the concept of control provides rich patterns of lobbying behaviour due to its controversial nature and its significance to financial reporting. Our examination is conducted by dividing lobbyists into two categories, corporate and non-corporate, which are hypothesised (and demonstrated) to lobby differently. In order to test the significance of these differences we apply ANOVA techniques and univariate regression analysis. Corporate respondents are found to devote more attention to issues of specific applicability of the concept of control, whereas non-corporate respondents tend to devote more attention to issues of general applicability of this concept. A strong association between the issues raised by corporate respondents and their line of business is revealed. Both categories of lobbyists are found to advance conceptually-based arguments more often than economic consequences-based or combined arguments. However, when economic consequences-based arguments are used, they come exclusively from the corporate category of respondents.

A quantitative TaqMan PCR assay for the detection of Mycoplasma suis

Aim: To develop a TaqMan probe-based, highly sensitive and specific quantitative PCR (qPCR) assay for the detection and quantification of Mycoplasma suis in the blood of pigs. Methods and Results: Primers and probes specific to Myc. suis 16S rRNA gene were designed. The qPCR assay`s specificity, detection limit, intra- and inter-assay variability were evaluated and its performance was compared with a Myc. suis conventional PCR assay (cPCR). Blood of two experimentally infected pigs, 40 Indiana pigs, 40 Brazilian sows and 28 peccaries were tested. The assay detected as few as ten copies of Myc. suis plasmids and was 100-fold more sensitive than the cPCR. No cross-reactivity with nontarget pig mycoplasmas was observed. An average of 1.62 x 10(11) and 2.75 x 10(8) target copies ml(-1) of blood were detected in the acutely and chronically infected pigs, respectively. Three (7.5%) pigs and 32 (80.0%) sows were positive while all peccaries were negative for Myc. suis. Conclusion: The developed qPCR assay is highly sensitive and specific for Myc. suis detection and quantification. Significance and Impact of the Study: TaqMan qPCR is an accurate and quick test for detection of Myc. suis infected pigs, which can be used on varied instrumentation platforms.

Att integrera i det svenska samhället : En undersökning om kvinnor med invandrarbakgrund och deras syn på introduktion och andra faktorer som påverkar inträdet i det svenska arbetslivet och samhället

The integration policy in Sweden shall encourage individuals to support themselves and take part in society. It shall alsocontribute to equal rights and opportunities for women as well as for men. In Borlänge this has resulted in a program ofintroduction for new arrivals from other countries. However, at the unit responsible for economic support, they havediscovered that women with immigrant background more often than men seem to have trouble starting or became to anending of the program, which then especially leads women to a long-term dependence for economic support. The purpose of this study has therefore been to investigate what factors affect immigrant women’s participation in theintroduction, and what significance this participation has for their possibilities to become economically self-supporting,and integrated into Swedish society. Previous research shows that some of the obstacles for the integration of immigrant women can be that they give birthto many children, are unskilled or have a low degree of education and that they tend to be living under patriarchalgender patterns. Another problem seem to be that some women are not even known as members of the municipalities.All of these problems are as well what was shown in my own study. I have used theoretical perspectives from Bourdieu, Elias & Scotson, Giddens, Roman and al-Baldawi in my analysis.Bourdieu have interesting thoughts about capital, habitus and field, which can help us to understand how individuals arebeing shaped and are given different opportunities to act in a special way or direction. Elias & Scotson describesthrough their study around established and outsiders how the process of integration can take place and what effects thatcan be shown for the opportunities to succeed in that part. Giddens, Roman and al-Baldawi then give us different waysto look at the patriarchy and family structures around the world. The result of this study shows that the willingness to integrate and be able to take care of your own support for living isan important part for the women for succeeding. For the other women, that don’t succeed, it turns out to be just like theprevious research has been shown. Gender patterns, many children and a low or no education skill all seems to be partof the issue. It is also suggested that the generosity of the Swedish welfare system might hinder rather than help someimmigrant women to become integrated into Swedish society.

Characterization of residential chimney conditions for flue gas flow measurements

A literature survey and a theoretical study were performed to characterize residential chimney conditions for flue gas flow measurements. The focus is on Pitot-static probes to give sufficient basis for the development and calibration of a velocity pressure averaging probe suitable for the continuous dynamic (i.e. non steady state) measurement of the low flow velocities present in residential chimneys. The flow conditions do not meet the requirements set in ISO 10780 and ISO 3966 for Pitot-static probe measurements, and the methods and their uncertainties are not valid. The flow velocities in residential chimneys from a heating boiler under normal operating condi-tions are shown to be so low that they in some conditions result in voiding the assumptions of non-viscous fluid justifying the use of the quadratic Bernoulli equation. A non-linear Reynolds number dependent calibration coefficient that is correcting for the viscous effects is needed to avoid significant measurement errors. The wide range of flow velocity during normal boiler operation also results in the flow type changing from laminar, across the laminar to turbulent transition region, to fully turbulent flow, resulting in significant changes of the velocity profile during dynamic measurements. In addition, the short duct lengths (and changes of flow direction and duct shape) used in practice are shown to result in that the measurements are done in the hydrodynamic entrance region where the flow velocity profiles most likely are neither symmetrical nor fully developed. A measurement method insensitive to velocity profile changes is thus needed, if the flow velocity profile cannot otherwise be determined or predicted with reasonable accuracy for the whole measurement range. Because of particulate matter and condensing fluids in the flue gas it is beneficial if the probe can be constructed so that it can easily be taken out for cleaning, and equipped with a locking mechanism to always ensure the same alignment in the duct without affecting the calibration. The literature implies that there may be a significant time lag in the measurements of low flow rates due to viscous effects in the internal impact pressure passages of Pitot probes, and the significance in the discussed application should be studied experimentally. The measured differential pressures from Pitot-static probes in residential chimney flows are so low that the calibration and given uncertainties of commercially available pressure transducers are not adequate. The pressure transducers should be calibrated specifically for the application, preferably in combination with the probe, and the significance of all different error sources should be investigated carefully. Care should be taken also with the temperature measurement, e.g. with averaging of several sensors, as significant temperature gradients may be present in flue gas ducts.

Vad händer med dialogen? : En studie av dialogisk interaktion mellan pedagog och barn i förskolan

The overall purpose of this study is to gain knowledge about dialogues in the setting of the preschool. The more in-depth purpose is to highlight what happens in dialogues between a teacher and a child when more children join the situation of interaction in which the dialogue is taking place. A further purpose is to attempt to understand what it is that influences change in the dialogue and what significance the actions of the teacher can have for this change. The study is based on several questions that concern interaction in preschools, who it is that initiates an increase in the number of participants in those situations that involve dialogue, and what happens with the dialogue when more children join and what causes the change in the dialogue. The study is based on video observations from a preschool; approximately 10 teachers and 50 children between the ages of one and six took part in the study. The situations that were observed and documented in video format were everyday activities (both indoor and outdoor) that were led at a nominal level by teachers. In total, 40 films were recorded. Film length was between one and 60 minutes. In 32 of the films, there was interaction between a teacher and several children, and 18 of these included dialogues between a teacher and several children. Dialogue is here given a specific significance and refers to the interaction that can be described in terms of presence, listening, reciprocity, and extending. This definition of dialogue derives from a combination of Martin Buber’s philosophy of dialogue and aspects of interaction that earlier research found to be significant for children’s learning. In two of the 18 films that showed dialogue, no other children became part of the situation of interaction; the remaining 16 films were transcribed; and both verbal and non-verbal events were made apparent in the transcriptions. Analyses of the recorded material and of the transcriptions were conducted using analytical terms borrowed from conversation analysis as well as the central term for this study dialogue.  The results demonstrate a complex practice and also demonstrate that dialogues in the sense given in this study take place between children and teachers. Situations of interaction also occur where dialogues take place in which a number of children join. It can be the child joining the situation of interaction who takes the initiative to an increased number of participants; however, it can also be the teacher or the child in the dialogue. The initial address can take place during a moment of transition in the interaction or at the same time as another participant is talking. The dialogue often changes when more children join the situation where the dialogue is taking place. The dialogue can end completely or be interrupted and resume. The results further demonstrate that the dialogue can continue without seemingly being affected by the fact that more children join. This happens when the child joining and the teacher in the dialogue interact in a non-verbal manner at the same time as the teacher is talking with the child in the dialogue. The dialogue can also be continued with more participants. Who takes the initiative, how the initial address occurs, and which content is given focus by the different participants are all factors that seem to affect what happens to the dialogue. How the teacher acts when more children join also appears to be significant in terms of what happens with the dialogue when more children join. In those situations where the teacher begins talking with a number of children about different subjects, the interaction ceases to be dialogic. When the teacher asks the joining child to wait, the dialogue is both interrupted and resumed, and on those occasions when the dialogue continues with more participants, the teacher listens to the joining child and the participants take turns speaking.

Tillhörighetens gränser : Internationell adoption och ursprungets betydelse i svensk utredningsretorik

Boundaries of belonging: transnational adoption and the significance of origin in Swedish official rhetoric This article explores how the category of ‘transnational adoptees’ in Sweden is constructed in two Official Government Reports (SOU). The article is inspired by poststructuralist perspectives on welfare and social categorization, and draws from a postcolonial and feminist theoretical framework. ‘Transnational adoptees’ as a category is understood as constituted through discourse, and given meaning in different contexts. In the reports, a fundamental importance is attached to the fact that individuals with a background as transnationally adopted have been separated from their birth family and country of birth. It is argued that mental problems and a split identity are consequences to be expected from the separation. (Re)connection to the origin is therefore considered to be crucial for the well-being of the group. The article concludes that this line of reasoning is based on a specific logic of blood and roots, in which ‘transnational adoptees’ are understood as belonging to their countries of birth, rather than Sweden. The logic of blood and roots can be read as a form of racialized othering, but also as a discursive exclusion of ‘transnational adoptees’ from Sweden as an imagined, national community.

Revisorn och den institutionaliserade misstron : professionaliseringen av svensk bolagsrevision

The auditor and the insitutionalization of distrust: the professionalization of external auditing in Sweden This paper addresses professionalization with a focus on trust, rather than on issues of power and competition. It contains a conceptual analysis of trust/confidence, as well as a case study of the professionalization of external auditing in Sweden. The conceptual analysis discusses the “time-binding” aspect of trust/confidence, and the significance of social control mechanisms related to “persons”, “roles”, “values” and “programs” for creating and sustaining trust/confidence. The case study focuses on the role of trust/confidence for the organization and professionalization of external auditing in Sweden, and in particular on the ways in which trust in auditors and auditing have been stabilized. The latter issue is dealt with through a discussion attempting to capture a historic displacement in three dimensions: from reliance on the auditor’spersonal reliability, to trust in the professional role; from trust in the individual discretion of certain persons to trust in the regulation of auditing as a standardized program; and finally, from trust in the values represented by individual auditors to trust in the institutionalized professional values.

Barn och unga med en nära anhörig som avlidit : Barn och ungas erfarenheter av att delta i stödgrupp

I denna kvalitativa studie har enkäter insamlats från barn och unga som deltagit i stödgruppsverksamhet för barn och unga med en avliden nära anhörig i Dalarnas län. Syftet med studien har varit att beskriva deltagarnas erfarenheter av stödgrupperna. Genom kvalitativ innehållsanalys har tre kategorier identifierats; bearbetning, gemenskap och strukturens betydelse. Studien visar främst på betydelsen av att få träffa andra barn och unga i liknande situation samt indikerar till att deltagarnas KASAM (känsla av sammanhang) förhöjts genom deltagandet i stödgruppen.

Advocating at the margins: women’s NGOs in China

The development of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in China has been unprecedented in the past fifteen years. The 1995 Fourth World Conference on Women (FWCW) and parallel NGO Forum in Beijing, China, opened the door for the first time for the establishment of women’s NGOs in China. This paper examines the development of Chinese women’s NGOs with a particular focus on two organizations in Beijing for marginalized female populations: one focusing on lesbians and the other helping women with HIV/AIDS. I examine the structure and growth of each NGO; however, on a more personal level and perhaps more importantly, I use the interviews I conducted with volunteers and clients of both organizations to analyze the importance of such organizations for lesbians and women living with HIV/AIDS. How have the lives of these women changed as a result of these particular organizations? What is their view regarding the support for lesbians and female HIV patients in China? These two case studies will shed light onto lesbians and women with HIV/AIDS in Beijing and the significance of such NGOs which function as the only support channels available for these two socially taboo communities.

Perfil plasmático da ICAM-1 e da VCAM-1 no pós-operatório cardíaco de lactentes submetidos à circulação extracorpórea

Introdução – Grande parte da população de crianças portadoras de defeitos cardíacos congênitos torna-se criticamente doente durante o primeiro ano de vida e necessita tratamento cirúrgico. No entanto, durante cirurgias cardíacas, ocorre uma resposta inflamatória intensa desencadeada pelo período de circulação extracorpórea (CEC), o que provoca disfunção de órgãos e tecidos. Os neutrófilos assumem um papel importante e complexo neste período, envolvendo a ligação às células endoteliais, ativação e liberação de mediadores inflamatórios. Esse processo é iniciado e mantido através de moléculas de adesão específicas, como a molécula de adesão intercelular-1 (ICAM-1) e a molécula de adesão celular-vascular-1 (VCAM-1). Formas solúveis destas moléculas apresentam variações de seus níveis durante cirurgias cardíacas com uso de CEC. Há poucos dados na literatura relacionados ao comportamento destas moléculas após cirurgia cardíaca com uso de CEC em lactentes, estando seu significado no plasma ainda por ser decifrado. Objetivos – Mensurar os níveis plasmáticos das moléculas de adesão solúveis ICAM-1 e VCAM-1 em condições basais e após exposição ao circuito de CEC em lactentes submetidos à cirurgia cardíaca para correção de defeitos cardíacos congênitos. Comparar os níveis plasmáticos destas moléculas entre pacientes acianóticos e cianóticos. Métodos – Foram estudados 21 lactentes, durante o período de junho de 1998 a março de 1999, submetidos à cirurgia cardíaca com uso de CEC. Foram analisados os níveis plasmáticos da ICAM-1 e da VCAM-1 solúveis pelo método de ELISA, na indução anestésica, ao término da CEC e 8 e 26 horas após o término da CEC. Resultados – As patologias cardíacas congênitas mais comuns foram defeito do septo atrioventricular e tetralogia de Fallot. As médias de idade e de peso foram 6,6 meses e 5,8 Kg. As medianas dos tempos de CEC e de clampeamento de aorta foram, respectivamente, 87 e 53 minutos. Todos os lactentes utilizaram inotrópicos. As medianas dos tempos de intubação e de internação foram 72 horas e 21 dias. A taxa de mortalidade dos pacientes foi de 9,5%. Os níveis basais da ICAM-1 e da VCAM-1 foram significativamente mais elevados do que aqueles considerados normais (P<0,0001). Os níveis da ICAM-1 diminuíram significaticamente ao término da CEC (P<0,001), voltando a aumentar significativamente 8 horas após o término deste período (P<0,005), sem no entanto, alcançar os valores basais 26 horas depois. A VCAM-1 apresentou comportamento semelhante. No entanto, 26 horas após CEC houve diminuição significativa de seus níveis em relação ao valor identificado 8 horas após tal período (P<0,005). Não houve diferença estatisticamente significativa quanto aos valores das moléculas entre pacientes acianóticos e cianóticos (P>0,1). Não houve associação entre os valores das moléculas e as variáveis perioperatórias e os desfechos clínicos. Conclusões – Os níveis plasmáticos das moléculas de adesão solúveis ICAM-1 e VCAM-1 são aumentados em lactentes com cardiopatias congênitas acianóticas e cianóticas no seu estado basal. Os níveis plasmáticos de ICAM-1 e VCAM-1 solúveis variam após exposição ao circuito de CEC em lactentes submetidos à cirurgia cardíaca para correção de cardiopatias congênitas, apresentando um comportamento característico nestes pacientes. Não há diferenças no comportamento das moléculas entre pacientes acianóticos e cianóticos.

Advocacy das organizações da sociedade civil: um estudo comparativo entre Brasil e Estados Unidos

As organizações da sociedade civil e suas formas de atuação têm ganhado importância tanto na sociedade como nos estudos acadêmicos. Uma das suas formas de atuação que vem se destacando é o papel de influenciar políticas públicas, também conhecido por advocacy, advocacy em políticas públicas e lobbying, dependendo do contexto e país de análise. O significado de advocacy e como esse fenômeno se manifesta constituem o foco deste estudo exploratório que busca, por meio de revisão da literatura, de entrevistas em profundidade e estudos de casos, comparar a atuação de três organizações da sociedade civil: o Independent Sector nos Estados Unidos, o Grupo de Institutos, Fundações e Empresas (GIFE) e a Associação Brasileira de Organizações não Governamentais (ABONG) no Brasil. Essas organizações se caracterizam por ser associações que representam outras organizações da sociedade civil e fazem advocacy em políticas públicas como parte de sua estratégia. É analisado como ocorre esse advocacy e qual o papel dessa forma de atuação dentro de um contexto de democracia deliberativa que pressupõe a discussão, a deliberação por parte dos cidadãos na esfera pública, de assuntos de seu interesse, como a elaboração, a execução e o monitoramento de políticas públicas.

A magia dos invencíveis

Esta dissertação de mestrado parte da constatação de que o sistema econômico social brasileiro. Apresenta uma anomalia ao propor, em leis e planos de desenvolvimento, a não inclusão do negro; com sua cultura e valores diferenciados, no projeto global de nação. Pretende, a partir daí, refletir sobre alguns pontos da Escola Tia Ciata, uma escola da rede do município do Rio de Janeiro, que objetiva basicamente alfabetizar adolescentes e jovens adultos, entre 12 e 20 anos, rejeitados pela escola regular, dando-lhe condições de se profissionalizar numa sociedade letrada, ao aprender a ler, escrever e contar. Por outro lado, ao discorrer sobre a experiência, tomou vulto uma dimensão inimaginável a priori e que se refere à origem histórica daqueles que são Invencíveis para o sistema escolar instituído e que por isso não conseguem ser “educados" e "civilizados". Procurar entender os Invencíveis, o significado e a magia que a "rua" tem para eles, significa pesquisar as propostas e projetos das classes dirigentes, para essa clientela, visando "ordenar a desordem". Por fim, diante da caracterização possível desses Invencíveis, tomando como base os alunos da Escola Tia Ciata, tenta-se descrever a Escola Imaginária e a que se tornou real, hoje. Quais as suas inovações básicas, sua forma de abordar o aluno que se pretende educar e a possibilidade de intervenção na rede pública escolar, de modo a abrir a perspectiva de transformação do quadro educacional atual.

Empresas com CEO/Chairman fundador apresentam retorno superior ao mercado?

Esse trabalho mostra que o retorno das ações de empresas que possuem como CEO ou Chairman o próprio fundador da empresa supera o retorno do S&P 500 no período de 1995 a 2011. É realizada também uma análise utilizando-se o Modelo de 4 Fatores de Fama-French e o resultado obtido indica que a carteira possui um retorno anualizado em excesso ajustado pelo risco de 5,79% com alta significância estatística e econômica. O trabalho também propõe mais duas análises: uma decomposição setorial da carteira, onde se verifica que o setor de tecnologia é o que mais contribui com o resultado acumulado da carteira; e um estudo sobre o múltiplo P/E (preço sobre lucro) da carteira, que surpreende ao mostrar que o P/E da carteira é sistematicamente superior ao P/E do S&P 500 no período analisado.

The Olympic impact on hosting candidate countries

In this paper, we analyze the impact of hosting the Summer Olympics on macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP, consumption, government consumption and investments per capita. The data is in panel structure and includes the period of ten years before and ten years after the event containing the Olympic Summer Games between 1960 and 1996. The sample countries comprise only candidates to host the games. This sampling strategy allows us to estimate the average treatment effect consistently, because it is assumed that these countries are comparable to each other, including those that ultimately hosted the games. The impact of hosting the Olympic games is measured by Fixed Effect and First Difference regressions. Moreover, we do a structural break test developed by Andrews (1993) to identify if hosting the Olympic Games creates anticipation effects for demand changes that stimulate current GDP, consumption, government consumption and investments. The results indicate a positive effect of the Summer Olympics in all variables of interest. However, the distribution in time and anticipation of these effects is unclear in the tests, changing significantly depending on the model and the significance level used.