Dynamic safety analysis of managed pressure drilling operations

The exploration and development of oil and gas reserves located in harsh offshore environments are characterized with high risk. Some of these reserves would be uneconomical if produced using conventional drilling technology due to increased drilling problems and prolonged non-productive time. Seeking new ways to reduce drilling cost and minimize risks has led to the development of Managed Pressure Drilling techniques. Managed pressure drilling methods address the drawbacks of conventional overbalanced and underbalanced drilling techniques. As managed pressure drilling techniques are evolving, there are many unanswered questions related to safety and operating pressure regimes. Quantitative risk assessment techniques are often used to answer these questions. Quantitative risk assessment is conducted for the various stages of drilling operations – drilling ahead, tripping operation, casing and cementing. A diagnostic model for analyzing the rotating control device, the main component of managed pressure drilling techniques, is also studied. The logic concept of Noisy-OR is explored to capture the unique relationship between casing and cementing operations in leading to well integrity failure as well as its usage to model the critical components of constant bottom-hole pressure drilling technique of managed pressure drilling during tripping operation. Relevant safety functions and inherent safety principles are utilized to improve well integrity operations. Loss function modelling approach to enable dynamic consequence analysis is adopted to study blowout risk for real-time decision making. The aggregation of the blowout loss categories, comprising: production, asset, human health, environmental response and reputation losses leads to risk estimation using dynamically determined probability of occurrence. Lastly, various sub-models developed for the stages/sub-operations of drilling operations and the consequence modelling approach are integrated for a holistic risk analysis of drilling operations.

Pore-water concentration of chloride in sediment cores and equilibrium temperatures and gas bubble analysis at ROV stations from the Vodyanitskii mud volcano

Vodyanitskii mud volcano is located at a depth of about 2070 m in the Sorokin Trough, Black sea. It is a 500-m wide and 20-m high cone surrounded by a depression, which is typical of many mud volcanoes in the Black Sea. 75 kHz sidescan sonar show different generations of mud flows that include mud breccia, authigenic carbonates, and gas hydrates that were sampled by gravity coring. The fluids that flow through or erupt with the mud are enriched in chloride (up to 650 mmol L**-1 at 150-cm sediment depth) suggesting a deep source, which is similar to the fluids of the close-by Dvurechenskii mud volcano. Direct observation with the remotely operated vehicle Quest revealed gas bubbles emanating at two distinct sites at the crest of the mud volcano, which confirms earlier observations of bubble-induced hydroacoustic anomalies in echosounder records. The sediments at the main bubble emission site show a thermal anomaly with temperatures at 60 cm sediment depth that were 0.9 °C warmer than the bottom water. Chemical and isotopic analyses of the emanated gas revealed that it consisted primarily of methane (99.8%) and was of microbial origin (dD-CH4 = -170.8 per mil (SMOW), d13C-CH4 = -61.0 per mil (V-PDB), d13C-C2H6 = -44.0 per mil (V-PDB)). The gas flux was estimated using the video observations of the ROV. Assuming that the flux is constant with time, about 0.9 ± 0.5 x 10**6 mol of methane is released every year. This value is of the same order-of-magnitude as reported fluxes of dissolved methane released with pore water at other mud volcanoes. This suggests that bubble emanation is a significant pathway transporting methane from the sediments into the water column.

Geochemical investigation, Oil-Oil and Oil-Source Rock Correlation in the Dezful Embayment, Marun Oilfield, Zagros, Iran

Peer reviewed

Geochemical investigation, Oil-Oil and Oil-Source Rock Correlation in the Dezful Embayment, Marun Oilfield, Zagros, Iran

Peer reviewed

Dunn County and Watford City, North Dakota: A case study of the fiscal effects of Bakken shale development

The Bakken region of North Dakota and Montana has experienced perhaps the greatest effects of increased oil and gas development in the United States, with major implications for local governments. Though development of the Bakken began in the early 2000s, large-scale drilling and population growth dramatically affected the region from roughly 2008 through today. This case study examines the local government fiscal benefits and challenges experienced by Dunn County and Watford City, which lie near the heart of the producing region. For both local governments, the initial growth phase presented major fiscal challenges due to rapidly expanding service demands and insufficient revenue. In the following years, these challenges eased as demand for services slowed due to declining industry activity and state tax policies redirected more funds to localities. Looking forward, both local governments describe their fiscal health as stronger because of the Bakken boom, though higher debt loads and an economy heavily dependent on the volatile oil and gas industry each pose challenges for future fiscal stability.

Fearonomics and the Role of Nigeria's Private Sector in the Nigerian Ebola Response

Background: Outbreaks of infectious diseases such as Ebola have dramatic economic impacts on affected nations due to significant direct costs and indirect costs, as well as increased expenditure by the government to meet the health and security crisis. Despite its dense population, Nigeria was able to contain the outbreak swiftly and was declared Ebola free on 13th October 2014. Although Nigeria’s Ebola containment success was multifaceted, the private sector played a key role in Nigeria’s fight against Ebola. An epidemic of a disease like Ebola, not only consumes health resources but also detrimentally disrupts trade and travel to impact both public and private sector resulting in the ‘fearonomic’ effect of the contagion. In this thesis, I have defined ‘fearonomics’ or the ‘fearonomic effects’ of a disease as the intangible and intangible economic effects of both informed and misinformed aversion behavior exhibited by individuals, organizations, or countries during an outbreak. During an infectious disease outbreak, there is a significant potential for public-private sector collaborations that can help offset some of the government’s cost of controlling the epidemic.

Objective: The main objective of this study is to understand the ‘fearonomics’ of Ebola in Nigeria and to evaluate the role of the key private sector stakeholders in Nigeria’s Ebola response.

Methods: This retrospective qualitative study was conducted in Nigeria and utilizes grounded theory to look across different economic sectors in Nigeria to understand the impact of Ebola on Nigeria’s private sector and how it dealt with the various challenges posed by the disease and its ‘fearonomic effects'.

Results: Due to swift containment of Ebola in Nigeria, the economic impact of the disease was limited especially in comparison to the other Ebola-infected countries such as Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. However, the 2014 Ebola outbreak had more than a just direct impact on the country’s economy and despite the swift containment, no economic sector was immune to the disease’s fearonomic impact. The potential scale of the fearonomic impact of a disease like Ebola was one of the key motivators for the private sector engagement in the Ebola response.

The private sector in Nigeria played an essential role in facilitating the country’s response to Ebola. The private sector not only provided in-cash donations but significant in-kind support to both the Federal and State governments during the outbreak. Swift establishment of an Ebola Emergency Operation Centre (EEOC) was essential to the country’s response and was greatly facilitated by the private sector, showcasing the crucial role of private sector in the initial phase of an outbreak. The private sector contributed to Nigeria’s fight against Ebola not only by donating material assets but by continuing operations and partaking in knowledge sharing and advocacy. Some sector such as the private health sector, telecom sector, financial sector, oil and gas sector played a unique role in orchestrating the Nigerian Ebola response and were among the first movers during the outbreak.

This paper utilizes the lessons from Nigeria’s containment of Ebola to highlight the potential of public-private partnerships in preparedness, response, and recovery during an outbreak.

Temperature measurements, gas chemistry, and gas hydrates of the Dvurechenskii mud volcano

The sediment temperature distribution at mud volcanoes provides insights into their activity and into the occurrence of gas hydrates. If ambient pressure and temperature conditions are close to the limits of the gas hydrate stability field, the sediment temperature distribution not only limits the occurrence of gas hydrates, but is itself influenced by heat production and consumption related to the formation and dissociation of gas hydrates. Located in the Sorokin Trough in the northern Black Sea, the Dvurechenskii mud volcano (DMV) was in the focus of detailed investigations during the M72/2 and M73/3a cruises of the German R/V Meteor and the ROV Quest 4000 m in February and March 2007. A large number of in-situ sediment temperature measurements were conducted from the ROV and with a sensor-equipped gravity corer. Gas hydrates were sampled in pressurized cores using a dynamic autoclave piston corer (DAPC). The thermal structure of the DMV suggests a regime of fluid flow at rates decreasing from the summit towards the edges of the mud volcano, accompanied by intermittent mud expulsion at the summit. Modeled gas hydrate dissociation temperatures reveal that the gas hydrates at the DMV are very close to the stability limits. Changes in heat flow due to variable seepage rates probably do not result in changes in sediment temperature but are compensated by gas hydrate dissociation and formation.

Co-production of bio-oil and propylene through the hydrothermal liquefaction of polyhydroxybutyrate producing cyanobacteria

A polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) producing cyanobacteria was converted through hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) into propylene and a bio-oil suitable for advanced biofuel production. HTL of model compounds demonstrated that in contrast to proteins and carbohydrates, no synergistic effects were detected when converting PHB in the presence of algae. Subsequently, Synechocystis cf. salina, which had accumulated 7.5wt% PHB was converted via HTL (15% dry weight loading, 340°C). The reaction gave an overall propylene yield of 2.6%, higher than that obtained from the model compounds, in addition to a bio-oil with a low nitrogen content of 4.6%. No propylene was recovered from the alternative non-PHB producing cyanobacterial strains screened, suggesting that PHB is the source of propylene. PHB producing microorganisms could therefore be used as a feedstock for a biorefinery to produce polypropylene and advanced biofuels, with the level of propylene being proportional to the accumulated amount of PHB.

Co-production of bio-oil and propylene through the hydrothermal liquefaction of polyhydroxybutyrate producing cyanobacteria

A polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) producing cyanobacteria was converted through hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) into propylene and a bio-oil suitable for advanced biofuel production. HTL of model compounds demonstrated that in contrast to proteins and carbohydrates, no synergistic effects were detected when converting PHB in the presence of algae. Subsequently, Synechocystis cf. salina, which had accumulated 7.5wt% PHB was converted via HTL (15% dry weight loading, 340°C). The reaction gave an overall propylene yield of 2.6%, higher than that obtained from the model compounds, in addition to a bio-oil with a low nitrogen content of 4.6%. No propylene was recovered from the alternative non-PHB producing cyanobacterial strains screened, suggesting that PHB is the source of propylene. PHB producing microorganisms could therefore be used as a feedstock for a biorefinery to produce polypropylene and advanced biofuels, with the level of propylene being proportional to the accumulated amount of PHB.

A multi vector energy analysis for interconnected power and gas systems

This paper presents the first multi vector energy analysis for the interconnected energy systems of Great Britain (GB) and Ireland. Both systems share a common high penetration of wind power, but significantly different security of supply outlooks. Ireland is heavily dependent on gas imports from GB, giving significance to the interconnected aspect of the methodology in addition to the gas and power interactions analysed. A fully realistic unit commitment and economic dispatch model coupled to an energy flow model of the gas supply network is developed. Extreme weather events driving increased domestic gas demand and low wind power output were utilised to increase gas supply network stress. Decreased wind profiles had a larger impact on system security than high domestic gas demand. However, the GB energy system was resilient during high demand periods but gas network stress limited the ramping capability of localised generating units. Additionally, gas system entry node congestion in the Irish system was shown to deliver a 40% increase in short run costs for generators. Gas storage was shown to reduce the impact of high demand driven congestion delivering a reduction in total generation costs of 14% in the period studied and reducing electricity imports from GB, significantly contributing to security of supply.

A novel methodology for analysis of large scale interconnected power and gas systems

The European Union continues to exert a large influence on the direction of member states energy policy. The 2020 targets for renewable energy integration have had significant impact on the operation of current power systems, forcing a rapid change from fossil fuel dominated systems to those with high levels of renewable power. Additionally, the overarching aim of an internal energy market throughout Europe has and will continue to place importance on multi-jurisdictional co-operation regarding energy supply. Combining these renewable energy and multi-jurisdictional supply goals results in a complicated multi-vector energy system, where the understanding of interactions between fossil fuels, renewable energy, interconnection and economic power system operation is increasingly important. This paper provides a novel and systematic methodology to fully understand the changing dynamics of interconnected energy systems from a gas and power perspective. A fully realistic unit commitment and economic dispatch model of the 2030 power systems in Great Britain and Ireland, combined with a representative gas transmission energy flow model is developed. The importance of multi-jurisdictional integrated energy system operation in one of the most strategically important renewable energy regions is demonstrated.

Data Science Seminar: Generic Big Data Processing for Advancing Situation Awareness and Decision-Support

The generation of heterogeneous big data sources with ever increasing volumes, velocities and veracities over the he last few years has inspired the data science and research community to address the challenge of extracting knowledge form big data. Such a wealth of generated data across the board can be intelligently exploited to advance our knowledge about our environment, public health, critical infrastructure and security. In recent years we have developed generic approaches to process such big data at multiple levels for advancing decision-support. It specifically concerns data processing with semantic harmonisation, low level fusion, analytics, knowledge modelling with high level fusion and reasoning. Such approaches will be introduced and presented in context of the TRIDEC project results on critical oil and gas industry drilling operations and also the ongoing large eVacuate project on critical crowd behaviour detection in confined spaces.

North Sea Oil and Genuine Saving in the Scottish Economy

The World Bank has published estimates of sustainability of consumption paths by adjusting saving rates to take account of the depletion of non-renewable resources. During the period of North Sea oil production Scotland has been in a fiscal union with the rest of the UK. The present paper adjusts the World Bank data to produce separate genuine saving estimates for Scotland and the rest of the UK for 1970-2009, based on a ‘derivation’ principle for oil revenues. The calculations indicate that Scotland has had a negative genuine saving rate for most of the period of exploitation of North Sea oil resources, with genuine saving being positive in the rest of the UK during this period.

The development of a photoacoustic Instrument for the monitoring of oil and other hydrocarbons in water.

The present methods for the detection of oil in discharge water are based either on chemical analysis of intermittent samples or bypass pipelines with instrumentation to detect either dissolved or dispersed hydrocarbons by a variety of optical techniques including absorption, scattering and fluorescence. However, test have shown that no single instruments entirely meets either present needs or satisfies the requirements of the future more stringent legislation which may limit total hydrocarbon content to 30 ppm or even less. Hence, in this paper, a detector is devised which can detect both dissolved and dispersed oil products, has a high immunity to scattering and can operate in-line and harsh environments with a detection sensitivity of a few ppm throughout a wide range of operations.