984 resultados para forecast deviation


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Vertical direct chill (VDC) casting of aluminium alloys is a mature process that has evolved over many decades through gradual change to both equipment design and casting practice. Today, air-pressurised, continuous lubrication, hot top mould systems with advanced station automation are selected as the process of choice for producing extrusion billet. Specific sets of operating parameters are employed on these stations for each alloy and size combination to produce optimal billet quality. The designs and parameters are largely derived from past experience and accumulated know-how. Recent experimental work at the University of Queensland has concentrated on understanding the way in which the surface properties of liquid aluminium alloys, e.g., surface tension, wetting angle and oxide skin strength, influence the size and shape of the naturally-stab le meniscus for a given alloy, temperature and atmosphere. The wide range of alloy-and condition-dependent values measured has led to the consideration of how these properties impact the stability of the enforced molten metal meniscus within the hot top mould cavity. The actual shape and position of the enforced meniscus is controlled by parameters such as the upstream conduction distance (UCD) from sub-mould cooling and the molten metal head. The degree of deviation of this actual meniscus from the predicted stable meniscus is considered to be a key driver in surface defect formation. This paper reports on liquid alloy property results and proposes how this knowledge might be used to better design VDC mould systems and casting practices.

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Purpose: To test the hypothesis that ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) are globally weaker than unruptured ones. Methods: Four ruptured and seven unruptured AAA specimens were harvested whole from fresh cadavers during autopsies performed over an 18-month period. Multiple regionally distributed longitudinally oriented rectangular strips were cut from each AAA specimen for a total of 77 specimen strips. Strips were subjected to uniaxial extension until failure. Sections from approximately the strongest and weakest specimen strips were studied histologically and histochemically. From the load-extension data, failure tension, failure stress and failure strain were calculated. Rupture site characteristics such as location, arc length of rupture and orientation of rupture were also documented. Results: The failure tension, a measure of the tissue mechanical caliber was remarkably similar between ruptured and unruptured AAA (group mean +/- standard deviation of within-subject means: 11.2 +/- 2.3 versus 11.6 +/- 3.6 N/cin; p=0.866 by mixed model ANOVA). In post-hoc analysis, there was little difference between the groups in other measures of tissue mechanical caliber as well such as failure stress (95 +/- 28 versus 98 +/- 23 N/cm(2); p=0.870), failure strain (0.39 +/- 0.09 versus 0.36 +/- 0.09; p=0.705), wall thickness (1.7 +/- 0.4 versus 1.5 +/- 0.4 mm; p=0.470), and % coverage of collagen within tissue cross section (49.6 +/- 12.9% versus 60.8 +/- 9.6%; p=0.133). In the four ruptured AAA, primary rupture sites were on the lateral quadrants (two on left; one on left-posterior; one on right). Remarkably, all rupture lines had a longitudinal orientation and ranged from 1 to 6 cm in length. Conclusion: The findings are not consistent with the hypothesis that ruptured aortic aneurysms are globally weaker than unruptured ones. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The technical reliability (i.e., interinstrument and interoperator reliability) of three SEAC-swept frequency bioimpedance monitors was assessed for both errors of measurement and associated analyses. In addition, intraoperator and intrainstrument variability was evaluated for repeat measures over a 4-hour period. The measured impedance values from a range of resistance-capacitance circuits were accurate to within 3% of theoretical values over a range of 50-800 ohms. Similarly, phase was measured over the range 1 degrees-19 degrees with a maximum deviation of 1.3 degrees from the theoretical value. The extrapolated impedance at zero frequency was equally well determined (+/-3%). However, the accuracy of the extrapolated value at infinite frequency was decreased, particularly at impedances below 50 ohms (approaching the lower limit of the measurement range of the instrument). The interinstrument/operator variation for whole body measurements were recorded on human volunteers with biases of less than +/-1% for measured impedance values and less than 3% for phase. The variation in the extrapolated values of impedance at zero and infinite frequencies included variations due to operator choice of the analysis parameters but was still less than +/-0.5%. (C) 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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Background: Since 1957, when the concept of rotation-advancement repair was introduced by Millard, this technique has become the procedure of choice for unilateral cleft lip worldwide. More recently, modifications described by Noordhoof, Mohler, Skoog, and McComb started being jointly performed so that better results could be obtained. In this study, the nasal position was evaluated and related to the size of the cleft. The primary unilateral cleft lip repair was performed through a modified technique. Methods: Forty-five patients with unilateral cleft lip underwent primary surgical repair through this technique. To analyze aesthetic results, a severity classification of deformities and a scoring system for evaluation of the results were established based on nasal alar lateralization, dome position, alignment of bone segments, and deviation of the columella. Results: By means of the established system, 26.6% of mild forms, 13.4% of moderate forms, and 60% of severe forms were observed. Among aesthetic results, 17.8% were found to be good, and 82.2% were considered excellent. Among aspects considered negative, late deformity of the lower lateral cartilage prevailed. Conclusions: Through the presented evaluation, the authors observed that there was no relation between severity of the cleft and final position of the nose. Among the 27 patients considered to have had severe forms of cleft deformity, 22 were classified as excellent results (81.5%). To obtain better results along time, technical refinements and the critical analysis of results must be performed on a routinely basis.

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Objective: To investigate the possible role of chromatin texture parameters, nuclear morphology, DNA ploidy and clinical functional status in discriminating benign from malignant adrenocortical tumors (ACT). Patients and Methods: Forty-eight cases of clinically benign (n=40) and clinically malignant (n=8) ACT with a minimum of 5-years` follow-up were evaluated for chromatin texture parameters (run length, standard deviation, configurable run length, valley, slope, peak and other 21 Markovian features that describe the distribution of the chromatin in the nucleus), nuclear morphology (nuclear area, nuclear perimeter, nuclear maximum and minumum diameter, nuclear shape), and DNA ploidy. Nuclear parameters were evaluated in Feulgen-stained 5 mu m paraffin-sections analyzed using a CAS 200 image analyzer. Results: Since ACTs present different biological features in children and adults, patients were divided into two groups: children (<= 15 years) and adults (>15 years). In the group of children DNA ploidy presented a marginal significance (p=0.05) in discriminating ACTs. None of the parameters discriminated between malignant and benign ACT in the adult group. Conclusion: ACTs are uncommon and definitive predictive criteria for malignancy remain uncertain, particularly in children. Our data point to DNA content evaluated by image analysis as a new candidate tool for this challenging task. Texture image analysis did not help to differentiate malignant from benign adrenal cortical tumors in children and adults.

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Obesity is associated with increased sympathetic activity and higher mortality. Treatment of this condition is often frustrating. Roux-en-Y gastric bypass is the most effective technique nowadays for treatment of obesity. The aim of the present study is to assess the effects of this surgery on the cardiac autonomic activity, including the influence of gender and age, through heart rate variability (HRV) analysis. The study group consisted of 71 obese patients undergoing gastric bypass. Time domain measures of HRV, obtained from 24-h Holter recordings, were evaluated before and 6 months after surgery, and the results were compared. Percentage of interval differences of successive normal sinus beats greater than 50 ms (pNN50) and square root of the mean squared differences of successive normal sinus beat intervals (rMSSD) was used to estimate the short-term components of HRV, related to the parasympathetic activity. Standard deviation of intervals between all normal sinus beats (SDNN) was related to overall HRV. SDNN, pNN50, and rMSSD showed significant increase 6 months after surgery (p < 0.001, p = 0.001 and p = 0.002, respectively). Men presented a greater increase of SDNN than women (p = 0.006) during the follow-up. There was a difference in rMSSD evolution for age groups (p = 0.002). Only younger patients presented significant increase of rMSSD. Overall HRV increased 6 months after surgery; this increase was more evident in men. Cardiac parasympathetic activity increased also, but in younger patients only.

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The data of nitrogen adsorption on pillared clays (PILC) are converted to comparison plots (t-plots) to derive their pore size distribution (PSD). As in the MP method, the surface area of a group of pores having similar pore sizes is calculated from the slopes of tangent lines at two succeeding points on a comparison plot. By the modified MP method in this work, the tangent line is extrapolated to the adsorption axis on the t-plot, and the difference between intercepts is used to obtain the volume of the group of pores. From the information of surface area and pore volume, the average width of the pore group can be calculated and hence the PSDs of PILCs are obtained by carrying out such calculation procedures from high to low t. With this method, PSDs of several pillared clays are calculated over a wide pore size range, from micropores to mesopores. It is found that the modified MP method could result in the underestimation of the width of ultramicropores due to the enhancement in adsorption energy in these pores. Nevertheless, the method can be very useful in calculating the surface area and pore volume, as well as a mean width of these pores. For super-micropores and mesopores, pore size can also be underestimated, due to deviation of the pore shape from a slit. The principles of the improved MP method, as well as problems associated with it are thoroughly discussed in this paper. In general, this modified method provides practically meaningful results which are consistent with the pore dimension obtained from powder X-ray diffraction measurements, but involves no complicated theoretical treatment or assumptions.

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Myelin proteolipid protein (PLP) contains 2 immunodominant encephalitogenic epitopes in SJL mice, namely PLP residues 139-151 and 178-191. DM20, a minor isoform of PLP, lacks residues 116-150 and consequently contains only the single major encephalitogenic epitope 178-191. However, it has been found previously that bovine DM20 is not encephalitogenic in SJL mice. Since residue 188 within peptide 178-191 is phenylalanine (F) in murine DM20 and alanine (A) in bovine DM20, we tested the effect of this difference on the immune responses and induction of EAE. SJL mice were immunized with either highly purified murine or bovine DM20. Residues 178-191 were found to be immunodominant for each, but only murine and not bovine DM20 was encephalitogenic. A synthetic peptide corresponding to the murine 178-191 sequence (F188) was also encephalitogenic, whereas the peptide corresponding to the bovine sequence (A188) was not. Both F188 and A188 bind with high affinity to I-A(s) and both are recognized by the SJL T cell repertoire. A188-specific T cell lines reacted to both A188 and F188, but F188-specific T cell lines were not stimulated by A188. F188-specific T cell lines produced mRNA for the Th1 cytokines IL2 and IFN gamma and, in passive transfer experiments, were encephalitogenic upon stimulation with F188, but not A188. In contrast, A188-specific T cell lines produced mRNA for IL4, IL5 and IL10, in addition to IL2 and IFN gamma, and were not encephalitogenic after stimulation with either F188 or A188. Cotransfer of A188-specific T cell lines with F188-specific T cell lines resulted in protection from EAE. Thus, A188 induces a functionally different phenotype of T cells from that induced by F188. Taken together these data suggest that the failure of bovine DM20 to induce EAE may be attributable to induction of protective rather than pathogenic T cells by the immunodominant epitope.

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Background: The Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire (MLHFQ) is a well-validated, commonly-used tool to assess quality of life in patients with heart failure. However, it lacks specific information concerning breathlessness during daily activities. Objective: To determine the validity of the London Chest Activity of Daily Living (LCADL) scale for use in patients with heart failure. Methods: Forty-seven patients with heart failure (57% males, mean age 50 years (standard deviation 9), mean left ventricle ejection fraction 29% (SD 6), New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class I-III) were included. All subjects first performed a cardiopulmonary exercise test and then responded to the LCADL and the MLHFQ, with guidance from the same investigator. The re-test for the LCADL was applied one week later. Results: LCADL was correlated with MLHFQ (r=0.88; p < 0.0001). LCADL and MLHFQ were also correlated with exercise capacity (r=-0.75 and r=-0.73, respectively; both p < 0.0001). The LCADL was shown to be reproducible (r(i)=0.98). There was a significant difference (p < 0.05) in the LCADL scores between NYHA functional classes I and II, as well as classes I and III, hut not between classes II and III. Conclusion: The LCADL was shown to be a valid measurement of dyspnoea during daily activities in patients with heart failure. This scale could be an additional useful tool for the assessment of patients` dyspnoea during activities of daily living.

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1. Chrysophtharta bimaculata is a native chrysomelid species that can cause chronic defoliation of plantation and regrowth Eucalyptus forests in Tasmania, Australia. Knowledge of the dispersion pattern of C. bimaculata was needed in order to assess the efficiency of an integrated pest management (IPM) programme currently used for its control. 2. Using data from yellow flight traps, local populations of C. bimaculata adults were monitored over a season at spatial scales relevant to commercial forestry: within a 50-ha operational management unit (a forestry 'coupe') and between coupes. In addition, oviposition was monitored over a season at a subset of the between-coupe sites. 3. Dispersion indices (Taylor's Power Law and Iwao's Mean Crowding regression method) demonstrated that C. bimaculata adults were spatially aggregated within and between coupes, although the number of egg-batches laid at the between-coupe scale was uniform. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that trap-catches at the within-coupe level were similar (positively autocorrelated) to a radius distance of approximately 110 m, and then dissimilar (negatively autocorrelated) at approximately 250 m. At the between-coupe scale, no repeatable spatial autocorrelation patterns were observed. 4. For any individual site, rapid changes in beetle density were observed to be associated with loosely aggregated flights of beetles into and out of that site. Peak adult catches (> the weekly mean plus standard deviation trap-catch) for a site occurred for a period of 2.0 +/- 0.22 weeks at a time (n = 37), with normally only one or two peaks per site per season. Peak oviposition events for a site occurred on average 1.4 +/- 0.11 times per season and lasted 1.5 +/- 0.12 weeks. 5. Analysis of an extensive data set (n = 417) demonstrated that adult abundance at a site was positively correlated with egg density, but negatively correlated with tree damage (caused by conspecifics) and the presence of conspecific larvae. There was no relationship between adult abundance and a visual estimate of the amount of young foliage on trees. 6. Adults of C. bimaculata are show n to occur in relatively small, mobile aggregations. This means that pest surveys must be both regular (less than 2 weeks apart) and intensive (with sampling points no more than 150 m apart) if beetle populations are to be monitored with confidence. Further refinement of the current IPM strategy must recognize the problems posed by this temporal and spatial patchiness, particularly with regard to the use of biological insecticides, such as Bacillus thuringiensis, for which only a very short operational window exists.

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Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

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Objectives. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between variables of physical assessment - muscular strength, flexibility and dynamic balance - with pain, pain threshold, and fibromyalgia symptoms (FM). Methods. Our sample consists of 55 women, with age ranging from 30 to 55 years (mean of 46.5, (standard deviation, SD=6.6)), mean body mass index (BMI) of 28.7(3.8) and diagnosed for FM according to the American College of Rheumatology criteria. Pain intensity was measured using a visual analogue scale (VAS) and pain threshold (PT) using Fisher`s dolorimeter. FM symptoms were assessed by the Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ); flexibility by the third finger to floor test (3FF); the muscular strength index (MSI) by the maximum volunteer isometric contraction at flexion and extension of right knee and elbow using a force transducer, dynamic balance by the time to get up and go (TUG) test and the functional reach test (FRT). Data were analysed using Pearson`s correlation, as well as simple and multivariate regression tests, with significance level of 5%. Results. PT and FIQ were weakly but significantly correlated with the TUG, MSI and 3FF as well as VAS with the TUG and MSI (p<0.05). VAS, PT and FIQ was not correlated with FRT. Simple regression suggests that, alone, TUG, FR, MSI and 3FF are low predictors of VAS, PT and FIQ. For the VAS, the best predictive model includes TUG and MSI, explaining 12.6% of pain. variability. For TP and total symptoms, as obtained by the FIQ, most predictive model includes 3FF and MSI, which respectively respond by 30% and 21% of the variability. Conclusion. Muscular strength, flexibility and balance are associated with pain, pain threshold, and symptoms in FM patients.

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Background: Zenker`s diverticulum (ZD) is a rare condition with a reported prevalence of 0.01% to 0.11% in the general population. Endoscopic treatment consists of the division of the septum between the diverticulum and the esophagus, within which the cricopharyngeal muscle is contained. Diathermic monopolar current, argon plasma coagulation, and laser have been used to incise the muscular septum with satisfactory results. The main limitation of endoscopic treatment is the occurrence of complications. Perforation and hemorrhage are reported in as many as 23% and 10% of patients, respectively. Objective: The aim of this study was to use the technique of endoscopic diverticulotomy by using a harmonic scalpel in patients with ZD and to demonstrate the feasibility of using flexible and rigid devices in ZD treatment. Design: Case series study. Standard protocol was used for patient management, endoscopic procedure, and data collection. Setting: Single endoscopist demonstrating preliminary results. Patients: Five patients (4 men; median standard deviation [SD] age 69.6 +/- 9.06 years, range 59-83 years) with ZD were treated with this technique. All patients reported dysphagia and halitosis. The diagnosis was based on clinical, endoscopic, and radiographic findings. Interventions: All patients received general anesthesia and were placed in the left lateral position. A standard videogastroscope (9.8 mm) and a stiff guidewire were used to insert and achieve an adequate exposure of the ZD septum. The septum was divided using a harmonic scalpel under thin endoscope (5.2 mm) visualization through a soft diverticuloscope. Main Outcome Measurement: Feasibility of an endoscopic technique by using rigid and flexible devices to treat ZD. Results: Four patients (80%) were successfully treated in 1 session. The median SD size of the diverticulum was 3.6 +/- 0.89 cm (range 3-5 cm). Median SD procedure time was 17.33 +/- 2.33 minutes (range 15-20 minutes) in 6 procedures. No hemorrhage or perforation occurred. One patient (20%) required a second session to complete dissection of the ZD septum. All patients demonstrated improvement of dysphagia score after treatment. Limitations: Small case series design. Conclusions: Endoscopic treatment of ZD by harmonic scalpel through a soft diverticuloscope was feasible and effective in this small case series. Larger studies are warranted to further evaluate this technique.

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to test the ability of frequency-doubling technology (FDT) perimetry to detect dysthyroid optic neuropathy (DON). Fifteen eyes of 15 patients with DON and 15 healthy control eyes were studied. Eligible eyes had a diagnosis of DON based on visual field abnormalities on standard automated perimetry and had visual acuity better than 20/30. FDT testing was performed using both the C-20-5 screening test and the C-20 full-threshold test. Normal and DON eyes were compared with regard to FDT mean sensitivity. Sensitivity ranges were 40.0%-86.7% for the screening test, and 53.3%-100.0% (total deviation) and 20.0-93.3 (pattern deviation) for the C-20 threshold test. The corresponding specificity ranges were 86.7-100.0, 33.3-93.3, and 26.7-100.0, respectively. The best sensitivity/specificity ratios were for one abnormal point depressed < 5% in the screening test (86.7%/86.7%), one point depressed < 1% in the total deviation analysis (80.0%/86.7%), and one point depressed < 2% in the pattern deviation analysis (80.0%/86.7%). DON eyes presented significantly lower than normal average sensitivity in the central, pericentral, and peripheral areas. FDT perimetry is a useful screening tool for DON in eyes with normal or only slightly reduced visual acuity.

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Aim To compare the ability of scanning laser polarimeter (SLP) with variable corneal compensation (GDx VCC) and optical coherence tomograph (Stratus OCT) to discriminate between eyes with band atrophy (BA) of the optic nerve and healthy eyes. Methods The study included 37 eyes with BA and temporal visual field (VF) defects from chiasmal compression, and 29 normal eyes. Subjects underwent standard automated perimetry (SAP) and retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) scans using GDx VCC and Stratus OCT. The severity of the VF defects was evaluated by the temporal mean defect (TMD), calculated as the average of 22 values of the temporal total deviation plot on SAP. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated. Pearson`s correlation coefficients were used to evaluate the relationship between RNFL thickness parameters and the TMD. Results No significant difference was found between the ROC curves areas (AUCs) for the GDx VCC and Stratus OCT with regard to average RNFL thickness (0.98 and 0.99, respectively) and the superior (0.94; 0.95), inferior (0.96; 0.97), and nasal (0.92; 0.96) quadrants. However, the AUC in the temporal quadrant (0.77) was significantly smaller (P < 0.001) with GDx VCC than with Stratus OCT (0.98). Lower TMD values were associated with smaller RNFL thickness in most parameters from both equipments. Conclusion Adding VCC resulted in improved performance in SLP when evaluating eyes with BA, and both technologies are sensitive in detecting average, superior, inferior, and nasal quadrant RNFL loss. However, GDx VCC still poorly discriminates RNFL loss in the temporal quadrant when compared with Stratus OCT.