When and why threats go undetected: Impacts of event rate and shift length on threat detection accuracy during airport baggage screening

Objective: We aimed to assess the impact of task demands and individual characteristics on threat detection in baggage screeners. Background: Airport security staff work under time constraints to ensure optimal threat detection. Understanding the impact of individual characteristics and task demands on performance is vital to ensure accurate threat detection. Method: We examined threat detection in baggage screeners as a function of event rate (i.e., number of bags per minute) and time on task across 4 months. We measured performance in terms of the accuracy of detection of Fictitious Threat Items (FTIs) randomly superimposed on X-ray images of real passenger bags. Results: Analyses of the percentage of correct FTI identifications (hits) show that longer shifts with high baggage throughput result in worse threat detection. Importantly, these significant performance decrements emerge within the first 10 min of these busy screening shifts only. Conclusion: Longer shift lengths, especially when combined with high baggage throughput, increase the likelihood that threats go undetected. Application: Shorter shift rotations, although perhaps difficult to implement during busy screening periods, would ensure more consistently high vigilance in baggage screeners and, therefore, optimal threat detection and passenger safety.

Estimation of remaining life of power transformers

Inadvertent failure of power transformers has serious consequences on the power system reliability, economics and the revenue accrual. Insulation is the weakest link in the power transformer prompting periodic inspection of the status of insulation at different points in time. A close Monitoring of the electrical, chemical and such other properties on insulation as are sensitive to the amount of time-dependent degradation becomes mandatory to judge the status of the equipment. Data-driven Diagnostic Testing and Condition Monitoring (DTCM) specific to power transformer is the aspect in focus. Authors develop a Monte Carlo approach for augmenting the rather scanty experimental data normally acquired using Proto-types of power transformers. Also described is a validation procedure for estimating the accuracy of the Model so developed.

Molecular basis for the development of diagnostic methods and specific treatment modalities for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is an interstitial lung disease with unknown aetiology and poor prognosis. IPF is characterized by alveolar epithelial damage that leads tissue remodelling and ultimately to the loss of normal lung architecture and function. Treatment has been focused on anti-inflammatory therapies, but due to their poor efficacy new therapeutic modalities are being sought. There is a need for early diagnosis and also for differential diagnostic markers for IPF and other interstitial lung diseases. The study utilized patient material obtained from bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), diagnostic biopsies or lung transplantation. Human pulmonary fibroblast cell cultures were propagated and asbestos-induced pulmonary fibrosis in mice was used as an experimental animal model of IPF. The possible markers for IPF were scanned by immunohistochemistry, RT-PCR, ELISA and western blot. Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are proteolytic enzymes that participate in tissue remodelling. Microarray studies have introduced potential markers that could serve as additional tools for the assessment of IPF and one of the most promising was MMP 7. MMP-7 protein levels were measured in the BAL fluid of patients with idiopathic interstitial lung diseases or idiopathic cough. MMP-7 was however similarly elevated in the BAL fluid of all these disorders and thus cannot be used as a differential diagnostic marker for IPF. Activation of transforming growth factor (TGF)-ß is considered to be a key element in the progression of IPF. Bone morphogenetic proteins (BMP) are negative regulators of intracellular TGF-ß signalling and BMP-4 signalling is in turn negatively regulated by gremlin. Gremlin was found to be highly upregulated in the IPF lungs and IPF fibroblasts. Gremlin was detected in the thickened IPF parenchyma and endothelium of small capillaries, whereas in non-specific interstitial pneumonia it localized predominantly in the alveolar epithelium. Parenchymal gremlin immunoreactivity might indicate IPF-type interstitial pneumonia. Gremlin mRNA levels were higher in patients with end-stage fibrosis suggesting that gremlin might be a marker for more advanced disease. Characterization of the fibroblastic foci in the IPF lungs showed that immunoreactivity to platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) receptor-α and PDGF receptor-β was elevated in IPF parenchyma, but the fibroblastic foci showed only minor immunoreactivity to the PDGF receptors or the antioxidant peroxiredoxin II. Ki67 positive cells were also observed predominantly outside the fibroblastic foci, suggesting that the fibroblastic foci may not be composed of actively proliferating cells. When inhibition of profibrotic PDGF-signalling by imatinib mesylate was assessed, imatinib mesylate reduced asbestos-induced pulmonary fibrosis in mice as well as human pulmonary fibroblast migration in vitro but it had no effect on the lung inflammation.

Effect of gaze position and blur on stepping accuracy in older adults.

Purpose: To examine the effects of gaze position and optical blur, similar to that used in multifocal corrections, on stepping accuracy for a precision stepping task among older adults. Methods: Nineteen healthy older adults (mean age, 71.6 +/- 8.8 years) with normal vision performed a series of precision stepping tasks onto a fixed target. The stepping tasks were performed using a repeated-measures design for three gaze positions (fixating on the stepping target as well as 30 and 60 cm farther forward of the stepping target) and two visual conditions (best-corrected vision and with +2.50DS blur). Participants' gaze position was tracked using a head-mounted eye tracker. Absolute, anteroposterior, and mediolateral foot placement errors and within-subject foot placement variability were calculated from the locations of foot and floor-mounted retroreflective markers captured by flash photography of the final foot position. Results: Participants made significantly larger absolute and anteroposterior foot placement errors and exhibited greater foot placement variability when their gaze was directed farther forward of the stepping target. Blur led to significantly increased absolute and anteroposterior foot placement errors and increased foot placement variability. Furthermore, blur differentially increased the absolute and anteroposterior foot placement errors and variability when gaze was directed 60 cm farther forward of the stepping target. Conclusions: Increasing gaze position farther ahead from stepping locations and the presence of blur negatively impact the stepping accuracy of older adults. These findings indicate that blur, similar to that used in multifocal corrections, has the potential to increase the risk of trips and falls among older populations when negotiating challenging environments where precision stepping is required, particularly as gaze is directed farther ahead from stepping locations when walking.

Imaging of knee injuries with special focus on tibial plateau fractures

Acute knee injury is a common event throughout life, and it is usually the result of a traffic accident, simple fall, or twisting injury. Over 90% of patients with acute knee injury undergo radiography. An overlooked fracture or delayed diagnosis can lead to poor patient outcome. The major aim of this thesis was retrospectively to study imaging of knee injury with a special focus on tibial plateau fractures in patients referred to a level-one trauma center. Multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) findings of acute knee trauma were studied and compared to radiography, as well as whether non-contrast MDCT can detect cruciate ligaments with reasonable accuracy. The prevalence, type, and location of meniscal injuries in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were evaluated, particularly in order to assess the prevalence of unstable meniscal tears in acute knee trauma with tibial plateau fractures. The possibility to analyze with conventional MRI the signal appearance of menisci repaired with bioabsorbable arrows was also studied. The postoperative use of MDCT was studied in surgically treated tibial plateau fractures: to establish the frequency and indications of MDCT and to assess the common findings and their clinical impact in a level-one trauma hospital. This thesis focused on MDCT and MRI of knee injuries, and radiographs were analyzed when applica-ble. Radiography constitutes the basis for imaging acute knee injury, but MDCT can yield information beyond the capabilities of radiography. Especially in severely injured patients , sufficient radiographs are often difficult to obtain, and in those patients, radiography is unreliable to rule out fractures. MDCT detected intact cruciate ligaments with good specificity, accuracy, and negative predictive value, but the assessment of torn ligaments was unreliable. A total of 36% (14/39) patients with tibial plateau fracture had an unstable meniscal tear in MRI. When a meniscal tear is properly detected preoperatively, treatment can be combined with primary fracture fixation, thus avoiding another operation. The number of meniscal contusions was high. Awareness of the imaging features of this meniscal abnormality can help radiologists increase specificity by avoiding false-positive findings in meniscal tears. Postoperative menisci treated with bioabsorbable arrows showed no difference, among different signal intensities in MRI, among menisci between patients with operated or intact ACL. The highest incidence of menisci with an increased signal intensity extending to the meniscal surface was in patients whose surgery was within the previous 18 months. The results may indicate that a rather long time is necessary for menisci to heal completely after arrow repair. Whether the menisci with an increased signal intensity extending to the meniscal surface represent improper healing or re-tear, or whether this is just the earlier healing feature in the natural process remains unclear, and further prospective studies are needed to clarify this. Postoperative use of MDCT in tibial plateau fractures was rather infrequent even in this large trauma center, but when performed, it revealed clinically significant information, thus benefitting patients in regard to treatment.

The accuracy of weighing infants

Normal physiological processes can alter the weight of an infant by ± 80 g a day. Variations in measured weight and in measured changes in weight cannot be reduced by better scales or better techniques.

Accuracy of absorbed dose in external photon beam radiotherapy : what level is sufficient and how to approach it?

Radiation therapy (RT) plays currently significant role in curative treatments of several cancers. External beam RT is carried out mostly by using megavoltage beams of linear accelerators. Tumor eradication and normal tissue complications correlate to dose absorbed in tissues. Normally this dependence is steep and it is crucial that actual dose within patient accurately correspond to the planned dose. All factors in a RT procedure contain uncertainties requiring strict quality assurance. From hospital physicist´s point of a view, technical quality control (QC), dose calculations and methods for verification of correct treatment location are the most important subjects. Most important factor in technical QC is the verification that radiation production of an accelerator, called output, is within narrow acceptable limits. The output measurements are carried out according to a locally chosen dosimetric QC program defining measurement time interval and action levels. Dose calculation algorithms need to be configured for the accelerators by using measured beam data. The uncertainty of such data sets limits for best achievable calculation accuracy. All these dosimetric measurements require good experience, are workful, take up resources needed for treatments and are prone to several random and systematic sources of errors. Appropriate verification of treatment location is more important in intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) than in conventional RT. This is due to steep dose gradients produced within or close to healthy tissues locating only a few millimetres from the targeted volume. The thesis was concentrated in investigation of the quality of dosimetric measurements, the efficacy of dosimetric QC programs, the verification of measured beam data and the effect of positional errors on the dose received by the major salivary glands in head and neck IMRT. A method was developed for the estimation of the effect of the use of different dosimetric QC programs on the overall uncertainty of dose. Data were provided to facilitate the choice of a sufficient QC program. The method takes into account local output stability and reproducibility of the dosimetric QC measurements. A method based on the model fitting of the results of the QC measurements was proposed for the estimation of both of these factors. The reduction of random measurement errors and optimization of QC procedure were also investigated. A method and suggestions were presented for these purposes. The accuracy of beam data was evaluated in Finnish RT centres. Sufficient accuracy level was estimated for the beam data. A method based on the use of reference beam data was developed for the QC of beam data. Dosimetric and geometric accuracy requirements were evaluated for head and neck IMRT when function of the major salivary glands is intended to be spared. These criteria are based on the dose response obtained for the glands. Random measurement errors could be reduced enabling lowering of action levels and prolongation of measurement time interval from 1 month to even 6 months simultaneously maintaining dose accuracy. The combined effect of the proposed methods, suggestions and criteria was found to facilitate the avoidance of maximal dose errors of up to even about 8 %. In addition, their use may make the strictest recommended overall dose accuracy level of 3 % (1SD) achievable.

Review of Diagnostic Screening Instruments for Alcohol and Other Drug Use and Other Psychiatric Disorders

In recent years there has been a growing recognition that many people with drug or alcohol problems are also experiencing a range of other psychiatric and psychological problems. The presence of concurrent psychiatric or psychological problems is likely to impact on the success of treatment services. These problems vary greatly, from undetected major psychiatric illnesses that meet internationally accepted diagnostic criteria such as those outlined in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM-IV) of the American Psychiatric Association (1994), to less defined feelings of low mood and anxiety that do not meet diagnostic criteria but nevertheless impact on an individual’s sense of wellbeing and affect their quality of life. Similarly, the presence of a substance misuse problem among those suffering from a major psychiatric illness, often goes undetected. For example, the use of illicit drugs such as cannabis and amphetamine is higher among those individuals suffering from schizophrenia (Hall, 1992) and the misuse of alcohol in people suffering from schizophrenia is well documented (e.g., Gorelick et al., 1990; Searles et al., 1990; Soyka et al., 1993). High rates of alcohol misuse have also been reported in a number of groups including women presenting for treatment with a primary eating disorder (Holderness, Brooks Gunn, & Warren, 1994), individuals suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder (Seidel, Gusman and Aubueg, 1994), and those suffering from anxiety and depression. Despite considerable evidence of high levels of co-morbidity, drug and alcohol treatment agencies and mainstream psychiatric services often fail to identify and respond to concurrent psychiatric or drug and alcohol problems, respectively. The original review was conducted as a first step in providing clinicians with information on screening and diagnostic instruments that may be used to assess previously unidentified co-morbidity. The current revision was conducted to extend the original review by updating psychometric findings on measures in the original review, and incorporating other frequently used measures that were not previously included. The current revision has included information regarding special populations, specifically Indigenous Australians, older persons and adolescents. The objectives were to: ● update the original review of AOD and psychiatric screening/diagnostic instruments, ● recommend when these instruments should be used, by whom and how they should be interpreted, ● identify limitations and provide recommendations for further research, ● refer the reader to pertinent Internet sites for further information and/or purchasing of assessment instruments.

Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

Myotonic dystrophy type 2 (DM2) : Diagnostic methods and molecular pathology

Myotonic dystrophies type 1 (DM1) and type 2 (DM2) are the most common forms of muscular dystrophy affecting adults. They are autosomal dominant diseases caused by microsatellite tri- or tetranucleotide repeat expansion mutations in transcribed but not translated gene regions. The mutant RNA accumulates in nuclei disturbing the expression of several genes. The more recently identified DM2 disease is less well known, yet more than 300 patients have been confirmed in Finland thus far, and the true number is believed to be much higher. DM1 and DM2 share some features in general clinical presentation and molecular pathology, yet they show distinctive differences, including disease severity and differential muscle and fiber type involvement. However, the molecular differences underlying DM1 and DM2 muscle pathology are not well understood. Although the primary tissue affected is muscle, both DMs show a multisystemic phenotype due to wide expression of the mutation-carrying genes. DM2 is particularly intriguing, as it shows an incredibly wide spectrum of clinical manifestations. For this reason, it constitutes a real diagnostic challenge. The core symptoms in DM2 include proximal muscle weakness, muscle pain, myotonia, cataracts, cardiac conduction defects and endocrinological disturbations; however, none of these is mandatory for the disease. Myalgic pains may be the most disabling symptom for decades, sometimes leading to incapacity for work. In addition, DM2 may cause major socio-economical consequences for the patient, if not diagnosed, due to misunderstanding and false stigmatization. In this thesis work, we have (I) improved DM2 differential diagnostics based on muscle biopsy, and (II) described abnormalities in mRNA and protein expression in DM1 and DM2 patient skeletal muscles, showing partial differences between the two diseases, which may contribute to muscle pathology in these diseases. This is the first description of histopathological differences between DM1 and DM2, which can be used in differential diagnostics. Two novel high-resolution applications of in situ -hybridization have been described, which can be used for direct visualization of the DM2 mutation in muscle biopsy sections, or mutation size determination on extended DNA-fibers. By measuring protein and mRNA expression in the samples, differential changes in expression patterns affecting contractile proteins, other structural proteins and calcium handling proteins in DM2 compared to DM1 were found. The dysregulation at mRNA level was caused by altered transciption and abnormal splicing. The findings reported here indicate that the extent of aberrant splicing is higher in DM2 compared to DM1. In addition, the described abnormalities to some extent correlate to the differences in fiber type involvement in the two disorders.

Analysts' Accuracy of Estimation and the Relative Trading Volume

This study contributes to the neglect effect literature by looking at the relative trading volume in terms of value. The results for the Swedish market show a significant positive relationship between the accuracy of estimation and the relative trading volume. Market capitalisation and analyst coverage have in prior studies been used as proxies for neglect. These measures however, do not take into account the effort analysts put in when estimating corporate pre-tax profits. I also find evidence that the industry of the firm influence the accuracy of estimation. In addition, supporting earlier findings, loss making firms are associated with larger forecasting errors. Further, I find that the average forecast error increased in the year 2000 – in Sweden.

Occupational chronic solvent encephalopathy in Finland 1995 - 2007 : incidence and diagnostic methods

The occurrence of occupational chronic solvent encephalopathy (CSE) seems to decrease, but still every year reveals new cases. To prevent CSE and early retirement of solvent-exposed workers, actions should focus on early CSE detection and diagnosis. Identifying the work tasks and solvent exposure associated with high risk for CSE is crucial. Clinical and exposure data of all the 128 cases diagnosed with CSE as an occupational disease in Finland during 1995-2007 was collected from the patient records at the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health (FIOH) in Helsinki. The data on the number of exposed workers in Finland were gathered from the Finnish Job-exposure Matrix (FINJEM) and the number of employed from the national workforce survey. We analyzed the work tasks and solvent exposure of CSE patients and the findings in brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), quantitative electroencephalography (QEEG), and event-related potentials (ERP). The annual number of new cases diminished from 18 to 3, and the incidence of CSE decreased from 8.6 to 1.2 / million employed per year. The highest incidence of CSE was in workers with their main exposure to aromatic hydrocarbons; during 1995-2006 the incidence decreased from 1.2 to 0.3 / 1 000 exposed workers per year. The work tasks with the highest incidence of CSE were floor layers and lacquerers, wooden surface finishers, and industrial, metal, or car painters. Among 71 CSE patients, brain MRI revealed atrophy or white matter hyperintensities or both in 38% of the cases. Atrophy which was associated with duration of exposure was most frequently located in the cerebellum and in the frontal or parietal brain areas. QEEG in a group of 47 patients revealed increased power of the theta band in the frontal brain area. In a group of 86 patients, the P300 amplitude of auditory ERP was decreased, but at individual level, all the amplitude values were classified as normal. In 11 CSE patients and 13 age-matched controls, ERP elicited by a multimodal paradigm including an auditory, a visual detection, and a recognition memory task under single and dual-task conditions corroborated the decrease of auditory P300 amplitude in CSE patients in single-task condition. In dual-task conditions, the auditory P300 component was, more often in patients than in controls, unrecognizable. Due to the paucity and non-specificity of the findings, brain MRI serves mainly for differential diagnostics in CSE. QEEG and auditory P300 are insensitive at individual level and not useful in the clinical diagnostics of CSE. A multimodal ERP paradigm may, however, provide a more sensitive method to diagnose slight cognitive disturbances such as CSE.

Design of Constant Accuracy Linear Proportional Weir

Five different shaped weirs were designed and pertinent data for their use are given. One of these weir shapes had the least “sharp edge” at the junction of the base weir and “complementary weir.” Two other types of weirs had equal slopes at the junction of the base weir and complementary weir. Another shape, for which neither the indication accuracy was constant nor the slope was equal at the junction of the base weir and complementary weir, was also tested. The results of the four weir shapes hydraulically tested give consistent values for the coefficient of discharge varying between 0.625 to 0.631. The indication accuracies of all the previously designed linear proportional weirs (includig Sutro weir) are neither constant nor unity, as is believed.

Accurate mass-based analysis in human sport doping control : Application of liquid chromatography - time-of-flight mass spectrometry

Human sport doping control analysis is a complex and challenging task for anti-doping laboratories. The List of Prohibited Substances and Methods, updated annually by World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), consists of hundreds of chemically and pharmacologically different low and high molecular weight compounds. This poses a considerable challenge for laboratories to analyze for them all in a limited amount of time from a limited sample aliquot. The continuous expansion of the Prohibited List obliges laboratories to keep their analytical methods updated and to research new available methodologies. In this thesis, an accurate mass-based analysis employing liquid chromatography - time-of-flight mass spectrometry (LC-TOFMS) was developed and validated to improve the power of doping control analysis. New analytical methods were developed utilizing the high mass accuracy and high information content obtained by TOFMS to generate comprehensive and generic screening procedures. The suitability of LC-TOFMS for comprehensive screening was demonstrated for the first time in the field with mass accuracies better than 1 mDa. Further attention was given to generic sample preparation, an essential part of screening analysis, to rationalize the whole work flow and minimize the need for several separate sample preparation methods. Utilizing both positive and negative ionization allowed the detection of almost 200 prohibited substances. Automatic data processing produced a Microsoft Excel based report highlighting the entries fulfilling the criteria of the reverse data base search (retention time (RT), mass accuracy, isotope match). The quantitative performance of LC-TOFMS was demonstrated with morphine, codeine and their intact glucuronide conjugates. After a straightforward sample preparation the compounds were analyzed directly without the need for hydrolysis, solvent transfer, evaporation or reconstitution. The hydrophilic interaction technique (HILIC) provided good chromatographic separation, which was critical for the morphine glucuronide isomers. A wide linear range (50-5000 ng/ml) with good precision (RSD<10%) and accuracy (±10%) was obtained, showing comparable or better performance to other methods used. In-source collision-induced dissociation (ISCID) allowed confirmation analysis with three diagnostic ions with a median mass accuracy of 1.08 mDa and repeatable ion ratios fulfilling WADA s identification criteria. The suitability of LC-TOFMS for screening of high molecular weight doping agents was demonstrated with plasma volume expanders (PVE), namely dextran and hydroxyethylstarch (HES). Specificity of the assay was improved, since interfering matrix compounds were removed by size exclusion chromatography (SEC). ISCID produced three characteristic ions with an excellent mean mass accuracy of 0.82 mDa at physiological concentration levels. In summary, by combining TOFMS with a proper sample preparation and chromatographic separation, the technique can be utilized extensively in doping control laboratories for comprehensive screening of chemically different low and high molecular weight compounds, for quantification of threshold substances and even for confirmation. LC-TOFMS rationalized the work flow in doping control laboratories by simplifying the screening scheme, expediting reporting and minimizing the analysis costs. Therefore LC-TOFMS can be exploited widely in doping control, and the need for several separate analysis techniques is reduced.