Development and use of risk adjusted statistical process control tools for the monitoring and improvement of clinical outcomes in interventional cardiology

This thesis explored the development of statistical methods to support the monitoring and improvement in quality of treatment delivered to patients undergoing coronary angioplasty procedures. To achieve this goal, a suite of outcome measures was identified to characterise performance of the service, statistical tools were developed to monitor the various indicators and measures to strengthen governance processes were implemented and validated. Although this work focused on pursuit of these aims in the context of a an angioplasty service located at a single clinical site, development of the tools and techniques was undertaken mindful of the potential application to other clinical specialties and a wider, potentially national, scope.

Perianal disease combined with NOD2 genotype predicts need for IBD-related surgery in Crohn’s Disease patients from a population-based cohort

Background: Patients with Crohn’s disease (CD) often require surgery at some stage of disease course. Prediction of CD outcome is influenced by clinical, environmental, serological, and genetic factors (eg, NOD2). Being able to identify CD patients at high risk of surgical intervention should assist clinicians to decide whether or not to prescribe early aggressive treatment with immunomodulators. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of selected clinical (age at diagnosis, perianal disease, active smoking) and genetic (NOD2 genotype) data obtained for a population-based CD cohort from the Canterbury Inflammatory Bowel Disease study. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of complicated outcome in these CD patients (ie, need for inflammatory bowel disease-related surgery). Results: Perianal disease and the NOD2 genotype were the only independent factors associated with the need for surgery in this patient group (odds ratio=2.84 and 1.60, respectively). By combining the associated NOD2 genotype with perianal disease we generated a single “clinicogenetic” variable. This was strongly associated with increased risk of surgery (odds ratio=3.84, P=0.00, confidence interval, 2.28-6.46) and offered moderate predictive accuracy (positive predictive value=0.62). Approximately 1/3 of surgical outcomes in this population are attributable to the NOD2+PA variable (attributable risk=0.32). Conclusions: Knowledge of perianal disease and NOD2 genotype in patients presenting with CD may offer clinicians some decision-making utility for early diagnosis of complicated CD progression and initiating intensive treatment to avoid surgical intervention. Future studies should investigate combination effects of other genetic, clinical, and environmental factors when attempting to identify predictors of complicated CD outcomes.

Development of an eight gene expression profile implicating human breast tumours of all grade

The goal of improving systemic treatment of breast cancers is to evolve from treating every patient with non-specific cytotoxic chemotherapy/hormonal therapy, to a more individually-tailored direct treatment. Although anatomic staging and histological grade are important prognostic factors, they often fail to predict the clinical course of this disease. This study aimed to develop a gene expression profile associated with breast cancers of differing grades. We extracted mRNA from FFPE archival breast IDC tissue samples (Grades I–III), including benign tumours. Affymetrix GeneChip� Human Genome U133 Plus 2.0 Arrays were used to determine gene expression profiles and validated by Q-PCR. IHC was used to detect the AXIN2 protein in all tissues. From the array data, an independent group t-test revealed that 178 genes were significantly (P B 0.01) differentially expressed between three grades of malignant breast tumours when compared to benign tissues. From these results, eight genes were significantly differentially expressed in more than one comparison group and are involved in processes implicated in breast cancer development and/or progression. The two most implicated candidates genes were CLD10 and ESPTI1 as their gene expression profile from the microarray analysis was replicated in Q-PCR analyses of the original tumour samples as well as in an extended population. The IHC revealed a significant association between AXIN2 protein expression and ER status. It is readily acknowledged and established that significant differences exist in gene expression between different cancer grades. Expansion of this approach may lead to an improved ability to discriminate between cancer grade and other pathological factors.

Towards a model for student selection in clinical psychology

Background Selection of candidates for clinical psychology programmes is arguably the most important decision made in determining the clinical psychology workforce. However, there are few models to inform the development of selection tools to support selection procedures. The study, using a factor analytic structure, has operationalised the model predicting applicants' capabilities. Method Eighty-eight clinical applicants for entry into a postgraduate clinical psychology programme were assessed on a series of tasks measuring eight capabilities: guided reflection, communication skills, ethical decision making, writing, conceptual reasoning, empathy, and awareness of mind and self-observation. Results Factor analysis revealed three capabilities: labelled “awareness” accounting for 35.71% of variance; “reflection” accounting for 20.56%; and “reasoning” accounting for 18.24% of variance. Fourth year grade point average (GPA) did not correlate with performance on any of the selection capabilities other than a weak correlation with performance on the ethics capability. Conclusions Eight selection capabilities are identified for the selection of candidates independent of GPA. While the model is tentative, it is hoped that the findings will stimulate the development and validation of assessment procedures with good predictive validity which will benefit the training of clinical psychologists and, ultimately, effective service delivery.

The human μ-opioid receptor gene polymorphism (A118G) is associated with head pain severity in a clinical cohort of female migraine with aura patients

Migraine is a painful and debilitating, neurovascular disease. Current migraine head pain treatments work with differing efficacies in migraineurs. The opioid system plays an important role in diverse biological functions including analgesia, drug response and pain reduction. The A118G single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in exon 1 of the μ-opioid receptor gene (OPRM1) has been associated with elevated pain responses and decreased pain threshold in a variety of populations. The aim of the current preliminary study was to test whether genotypes of the OPRM1 A118G SNP are associated with head pain severity in a clinical cohort of female migraineurs. This was a preliminary study to determine whether genotypes of the OPRM1 A118G SNP are associated with head pain severity in a clinical cohort of female migraineurs. A total of 153 chronic migraine with aura sufferers were assessed for migraine head pain using the Migraine Disability Assessment Score instrument and classified into high and low pain severity groups. DNA was extracted and genotypes obtained for the A118G SNP. Logistic regression analysis adjusting for age effects showed the A118G SNP of the OPRM1 gene to be significantly associated with migraine pain severity in the test population (P = 0.0037). In particular, G118 allele carriers were more likely to be high pain sufferers compared to homozygous carriers of the A118 allele (OR = 3.125, 95 % CI = 1.41, 6.93, P = 0.0037). These findings suggest that A118G genotypes of the OPRM1 gene may influence migraine-associated head pain in females. Further investigations are required to fully understand the effect of this gene variant on migraine head pain including studies in males and in different migraine subtypes, as well as in response to head pain medication.

Modeling the cumulative genetic risk for multiple sclerosis from genome-wide association data

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause of chronic neurologic disability beginning in early to middle adult life. Results from recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have substantially lengthened the list of disease loci and provide convincing evidence supporting a multifactorial and polygenic model of inheritance. Nevertheless, the knowledge of MS genetics remains incomplete, with many risk alleles still to be revealed. Methods: We used a discovery GWAS dataset (8,844 samples, 2,124 cases and 6,720 controls) and a multi-step logistic regression protocol to identify novel genetic associations. The emerging genetic profile included 350 independent markers and was used to calculate and estimate the cumulative genetic risk in an independent validation dataset (3,606 samples). Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was implemented to compare clinical characteristics of individuals with various degrees of genetic risk. Gene ontology and pathway enrichment analysis was done using the DAVID functional annotation tool, the GO Tree Machine, and the Pathway-Express profiling tool. Results: In the discovery dataset, the median cumulative genetic risk (P-Hat) was 0.903 and 0.007 in the case and control groups, respectively, together with 79.9% classification sensitivity and 95.8% specificity. The identified profile shows a significant enrichment of genes involved in the immune response, cell adhesion, cell communication/ signaling, nervous system development, and neuronal signaling, including ionotropic glutamate receptors, which have been implicated in the pathological mechanism driving neurodegeneration. In the validation dataset, the median cumulative genetic risk was 0.59 and 0.32 in the case and control groups, respectively, with classification sensitivity 62.3% and specificity 75.9%. No differences in disease progression or T2-lesion volumes were observed among four levels of predicted genetic risk groups (high, medium, low, misclassified). On the other hand, a significant difference (F = 2.75, P = 0.04) was detected for age of disease onset between the affected misclassified as controls (mean = 36 years) and the other three groups (high, 33.5 years; medium, 33.4 years; low, 33.1 years). Conclusions: The results are consistent with the polygenic model of inheritance. The cumulative genetic risk established using currently available genome-wide association data provides important insights into disease heterogeneity and completeness of current knowledge in MS genetics.

Heparan sulfate proteoglycans, tumour progression and the cancer stem cell niche

The cancer stem cell hypothesis states that tumours arise from cells with the ability to self-renew and differentiate into multiple cell types, and that these cells persist in tumors as a distinct population that can cause disease relapse and hence metastasis. The crux of this hypothesis is that these cells are the only cells capable of, by themselves, giving rise to new tumours. What proportion of a tumour consists of these stem cells, where are they localised, how are they regulated, and how can we identify them? The stromal cells embedded within the extracellular matrix (ECM) not only provide a scaffold but also produce ECM constituents for use by stem cells. Heparan sulfate proteoglycans (HSPGs) are ubiquitous to this cell niche and interact with a large number of ligands including growth factors, their receptors, and ECM structural components. It is still unclear whether ECM degradation and subsequent metastasis is a result of proteases produced by the tumour cells themselves or by cells within the stromal compartment. The identification of the cellular origin of cancer stem cells along with microenvironmental changes involved in the initiation, progression and the malignant conversion of all cancers is critical to the development of targeted therapeutics. As ubiquitous members of the ECM microenvironment and hence the cancer cell niche, HSPGs are candidates for a central role in these processes.

Results of a phase IIa clinical trial of an anti-inflammatory molecule, chaperonin 10, in multiple sclerosis

Background Chaperonin 10 (Cpn10) is a mitochondrial molecule involved in protein folding. The aim of this study was to determine the safety profile of Cpn10 in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods A total of 50 patients with relapse-remitting or secondary progressive MS were intravenously administered 5 mg or 10 mg of Cpn10 weekly for 12 weeks in a double-blind, randomized, placebo controlled, phase II trial. Clinical reviews, including Expanded Disability Status Scale and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with Gadolinium, were undertaken every 4 weeks. Stimulation of patient peripheral blood mononuclear cells with lipopolysaccharide ex vivo was used to measure the in vivo activity of Cpn10. Results No significant differences in the frequency of adverse events were seen between treatment and placebo arms. Leukocytes from both groups of Cpn10-treated patients produced significantly lower levels of critical proinflammatory cytokines. A trend toward improvement in new Gadolinium enhancing lesions on MRI was observed, but this difference was not statistically significant. No differences in clinical outcome measures were seen. Conclusions Cpn10 is safe and well tolerated when administered to patients with MS for 3 months, however, a further extended phase II study primarily focused on efficacy is warranted.

An analysis of clinical characteristics in genetically linked migraine-affected pedigrees

Migraine is a common complex disorder characterized by severe recurrent headache and usually accompanied by nausea and vomiting. Previous studies in our laboratory have utilized three large multigenerational Australian pedigrees affected with migraine to indicate that the disease is genetically heterogeneous, with linkage results implicating genomic susceptibility regions on both chromosomes 19p and Xq. The present study explores the possibility of a correlation between genetic and clinical heterogeneity in these affected pedigrees. Specifically, the clinical characteristics of migraine including subtype, age of onset, frequency, duration, and disease symptoms were compared between the migraine pedigrees, and gender differences were also assessed. Our exploratory analyses revealed no significant differences in any of the clinical characteristics tested between the chromosome 19-linked family and the two X-linked families. Also, we did not detect any differences in male vs. female clinical features for these pedigrees. In conclusion, migraine is considered to be a clinically and genetically heterogeneous disorder; however, our study provided no conclusive evidence that variation in genomic susceptibility region is related to heterogeneity at the clinical level in these migraine-affected pedigrees.

Quantitative and qualitative changes in gene expression patterns characterize the activity of plaques in multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex autoimmune disorder of the CNS with both genetic and environmental contributing factors. Clinical symptoms are broadly characterized by initial onset, and progressive debilitating neurological impairment. In this study, RNA from MS chronic active and MS acute lesions was extracted, and compared with patient matched normal white matter by fluorescent cDNA microarray hybridization analysis. This resulted in the identification of 139 genes that were differentially regulated in MS plaque tissue compared to normal tissue. Of these, 69 genes showed a common pattern of expression in the chronic active and acute plaque tissues investigated (Pvalue<0.0001, ρ=0.73, by Spearman's ρ analysis); while 70 transcripts were uniquely differentially expressed (≥1.5-fold) in either acute or chronic active tissues. These results included known markers of MS such as the myelin basic protein (MBP) and glutathione S-transferase (GST) M1, nerve growth factors, such as nerve injury-induced protein 1 (NINJ1), X-ray and excision DNA repair factors (XRCC9 and ERCC5) and X-linked genes such as the ribosomal protein, RPS4X. Primers were then designed for seven array-selected genes, including transferrin (TF), superoxide dismutase 1 (SOD1), glutathione peroxidase 1 (GPX1), GSTP1, crystallin, alpha-B (CRYAB), phosphomannomutase 1 (PMM1) and tubulin β-5 (TBB5), and real time quantitative (Q)-PCR analysis was performed. The results of comparative Q-PCR analysis correlated significantly with those obtained by array analysis (r=0.75, Pvalue<0.01, by Pearson's bivariate correlation). Both chronic active and acute plaques shared the majority of factors identified suggesting that quantitative, rather than gross qualitative differences in gene expression pattern may define the progression from acute to chronic active plaques in MS.

The clinical effectiveness of interventions to assist perioperative temperature management for women undergoing Cesarean Section : a systematic review

Background Women undergoing Cesarean Section (CS) are vulnerable to the adverse effects associated with perioperative core temperature drop, in part due to the tendency for CS to be performed under neuraxial anesthesia, blood and fluid loss, and vasodilation. Inadvertent perioperative hypothermia (IPH) is a common condition that affects patients undergoing surgery of all specialties and is detrimental to all age groups, including neonates. Previous systematic reviews on IPH prevention largely focus on either adult or all ages populations, and have mainly overlooked pregnant or CS patients as a distinct group. Not all recommendations made by systematic reviews targeting all adult patients may be transferable to CS patients. Alternative, effective methods for preventing or managing hypothermia in this group would be valuable. Objectives To synthesize the best available evidence in relation to preventing and/or treating hypothermia in mothers after CS surgery. Types of participants Adult patients over the age of 18 years, of any ethnic background, with or without co-morbidities, undergoing any mode of anesthesia for any type of CS (emergency or planned) at healthcare facilities who have received interventions to limit or manage perioperative core heat loss were included. Types of intervention(s) Active or passive warming methods versus usual care or placebo, that aim to limit or manage core heat loss as applied to women undergoing CS were included. Types of studies Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that met the inclusion criteria, with reduction of perioperative hypothermia a primary or secondary outcome were considered. Types of outcomes Primary outcome: maternal core temperature measured during the preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative phases of care Secondary outcomes: newborn core temperature at birth, umbilical pH obtained immediately after birth, Apgar scores, length of Post Anesthetic Care Unit (PACU) stay, maternal thermal comfort. Search strategy A comprehensive search was undertaken of the following databases from their inception until May 2012: ProQuest, Web of Science, Scopus, Dissertation and Theses PQDT (via ProQuest), Current Contents, CENTRAL, Mednar, OpenGrey, Clinical Trials. There were no language restrictions. Methodological quality Retrieved papers were assessed for methodological quality by two independent reviewers prior to inclusion using JBI software. Disagreements were resolved via consultation with the third reviewer. An assessment of quality of the included papers was also made in relation to five key quality factors. Data collection Two independent reviewers extracted data from the included papers using a previously piloted customized data extraction tool. Results 12 studies with a combined total of 719 participants were included. Three broad intervention groups were identified; intravenous (IV) fluid warming, warming devices, leg wrapping. IV fluid warming, whether administered intraoperatively or preoperatively, was found to be effective at maintaining maternal (but not neonatal) temperature and preventing shivering, but does not improve thermal comfort. The effectiveness of IV fluid warming on Apgar scores and umbilical pH remains unclear. Warming devices, including forced air warming and under body carbon polymer mattresses, were effective at preventing hypothermia and reduced shivering, however were most effective if applied preoperatively. The effectiveness of warming devices to improve thermal comfort remains unclear. Preoperative forced air warming appears to aid maintenance of neonatal temperature, while intraoperative forced air warming does not. Forced air warming was not effective at improving Apgar scores and the effects for umbilical pH remain unclear. Conclusions Intravenous fluid warming, by any method, improves maternal temperature and reduces shivering for women undergoing CS. Preoperative body warming devices also improve maternal temperature, in addition to reducing shivering.

Reproducibility and clinical utility of tendon palpation to detect patellar tendinopathy in young basketball players

Background—Palpation is an important clinical test for jumper's knee. Objectives—To (a) test the reproducibility of palpation tenderness, (b) evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of palpation in subjects with clinical symptoms of jumper's knee, and (c) determine whether tenderness to palpation may serve as a useful screening test for patellar tendinopathy. The yardstick for diagnosis of patellar tendinopathy was ultrasonographic abnormality. Methods—In 326 junior symptomatic and asymptomatic athletes' tendons, palpation was performed by a single examiner before ultrasonographic examination by a certified ultrasound radiologist. In 58 tendons, palpation was performed twice to test reliability. Tenderness to palpation was scored on a scale from 0 to 3 where 0 represented no pain, and 1, 2, and 3 represented mild, moderate, and severe tenderness respectively. Results—Patellar tendon palpation was a reliable examination for a single examiner (Pearson r = 0.82). In symptomatic tendons, the positive predictive value of palpation was 68%. As a screening examination in asymptomatic subjects, the positive predictive value of tendon palpation was 36–38%. Moderate and severe palpation tenderness were better predictors of ultrasonographic tendon pathology than absent or mild tenderness (p<0.001). Tender and symptomatic tendons were more likely to have ultrasound abnormality than tenderness alone (p<0.01). Conclusions—In this age group, palpation is a reliable test but it is not cost effective in detecting patellar tendinopathy in a preparticipation examination. In symptomatic tendons, palpation is a moderately sensitive but not specific test. Mild tenderness in the patellar tendons in asymptomatic jumping athletes should be considered normal.

Patellar tendinopathy in junior basketball players : a controlled clinical and ultrasonographic study of 268 patellar tendons in players aged 14-18 years

Anterior knee pain is a common presenting complaint amongst adolescent athletes. We hypothesised that patellar tendinopathy may occur at a younger age than is generally recognised. Thus, we studied the patellar tendons in 134 elite 14- to 18-year-old female (n=64) and male (n=70) basketball players and 29 control swimmers (17 female, 12 male) clinically and with ultrasonography. We found that of 268 tendons, 19 (7%) had current patellar tendinopathy on clinical grounds (11% in males, 2% in females). Twenty-six percent of the basketball players' patellar tendons contained an ultrasonographic hypoechoic region. Ultrasonographic abnormality was more prevalent in the oldest tertile of players (17-18 years) than the youngest tertile (14-15.9 years). Of tendons categorised clinically as 'Never patellar tendinopathy', 22% had an ultrasonographic hypoechoic region nevertheless. This study indicates that patellar tendinopathy can occur in 14- to 18-year-old basketball players. Ultrasonographic tendon abnormality is 3 times as common as clinical symptoms

Asymptomatic hypoechoic regions on patellar tendon ultrasound : a 4-year clinical and ultrasound followup of 46 tendons

Patellar tendon ultrasound appearance is commonly used in clinical practice to diagnose patellar tendinopathy and guide management. Using a longitudinal study design we examined whether or not the presence of a hypoechoic ultrasonographic lesion in an asymptomatic patellar tendon conferred a risk for developing jumper's knee compared with a tendon that was ultrasonographically normal. Ultrasonographic, symptomatic and anthropometric assessment was completed at baseline and followup. Magnetic resonance imaging was performed on four tendons that resolved ultrasonographically in the study period. Forty-six patellar tendons were followed over 47 ± 11.8 months. Eighteen tendons were hypoechoic at baseline and 28 were ultrasonographically normal. Five tendons resolved ultrasonographically in the study period. Magnetic resonance imaging in four of these tendons was normal. Seven normal patellar tendons at baseline developed a hypoechoic area but only two became symptomatic. Analysis of ultrasonography at baseline and clinical outcome with Fisher's exact test shows there is no association between baseline ultrasound changes and symptoms at followup. In this study there is no statistically significant relationship between ultrasonographic patellar tendon abnormalities and clinical outcome in elite male athletes. Management of jumper's knee should not be solely based on ultrasonographic appearance; clinical assessment remains the cornerstone of appropriate management.

Randomized controlled trial : a randomized controlled clinical trial comparing a remineralizing paste with an antibacterial gel to prevent early childhood caries

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to compare twice daily tooth-brushing using 0.304 percent fluoride toothpaste alone with: (1) twice daily tooth-brushing plus once daily 10% casein phosphopeptide-amorphous calcium phosphate (CPP-ACP) paste; and (2) twice daily tooth-brushing plus once daily 0.12% chlorhexidine gel (CHX) for reducing early childhood caries (ECC) and mutans streptococci (MS) colonization. METHODS: Subjects (n=622) recruited at birth were randomized to receive either CPP-ACP or CHX or no product (study control [SC]). All children were examined at 6, 12, and 18 months old in their homes, and at 24 months old in a community dental clinic. RESULTS: At 24 months old, the caries incidence was 1% (2/163) in CPP-ACP, 2% (4/180) in CHX, and 2% (3/188) in SC groups. In children who were previously MS colonized at 12 and 18 months old, 0% (0/11) and 5% (3/63), respectively, of the CPP-ACP group remained MS-positive versus 22% (2/9) and 72% (18/25) in CHX and 16% (4/25) and 50% (7/14) in SC groups (P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: There is insufficient evidence to justify the daily use of casein phosphopeptide-amorphous calcium phosphate or chlorhexidine gel to control early childhood caries.