Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Methane contamination of drinking water accompanying gas-well drilling and hydraulic fracturing.

Directional drilling and hydraulic-fracturing technologies are dramatically increasing natural-gas extraction. In aquifers overlying the Marcellus and Utica shale formations of northeastern Pennsylvania and upstate New York, we document systematic evidence for methane contamination of drinking water associated with shale-gas extraction. In active gas-extraction areas (one or more gas wells within 1 km), average and maximum methane concentrations in drinking-water wells increased with proximity to the nearest gas well and were 19.2 and 64 mg CH(4) L(-1) (n = 26), a potential explosion hazard; in contrast, dissolved methane samples in neighboring nonextraction sites (no gas wells within 1 km) within similar geologic formations and hydrogeologic regimes averaged only 1.1 mg L(-1) (P < 0.05; n = 34). Average δ(13)C-CH(4) values of dissolved methane in shallow groundwater were significantly less negative for active than for nonactive sites (-37 ± 7‰ and -54 ± 11‰, respectively; P < 0.0001). These δ(13)C-CH(4) data, coupled with the ratios of methane-to-higher-chain hydrocarbons, and δ(2)H-CH(4) values, are consistent with deeper thermogenic methane sources such as the Marcellus and Utica shales at the active sites and matched gas geochemistry from gas wells nearby. In contrast, lower-concentration samples from shallow groundwater at nonactive sites had isotopic signatures reflecting a more biogenic or mixed biogenic/thermogenic methane source. We found no evidence for contamination of drinking-water samples with deep saline brines or fracturing fluids. We conclude that greater stewardship, data, and-possibly-regulation are needed to ensure the sustainable future of shale-gas extraction and to improve public confidence in its use.

Hydraulic redistribution of soil water by roots affects whole-stand evapotranspiration and net ecosystem carbon exchange.

*Hydraulic redistribution (HR) of water via roots from moist to drier portions of the soil occurs in many ecosystems, potentially influencing both water use and carbon assimilation. *By measuring soil water content, sap flow and eddy covariance, we investigated the temporal variability of HR in a loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) plantation during months of normal and below-normal precipitation, and examined its effects on tree transpiration, ecosystem water use and carbon exchange. *The occurrence of HR was explained by courses of reverse flow through roots. As the drought progressed, HR maintained soil moisture above 0.15 cm(3) cm(-3) and increased transpiration by 30-50%. HR accounted for 15-25% of measured total site water depletion seasonally, peaking at 1.05 mm d(-1). The understory species depended on water redistributed by the deep-rooted overstory pine trees for their early summer water supply. Modeling carbon flux showed that in the absence of HR, gross ecosystem productivity and net ecosystem exchange could be reduced by 750 and 400 g C m(-2) yr(-1), respectively. *Hydraulic redistribution mitigated the effects of soil drying on understory and stand evapotranspiration and had important implications for net primary productivity by maintaining this whole ecosystem as a carbon sink.

Finance for water and sanitation as a public service

Drawing on empirical evidence gathered through the PSIRU database, this contribution aims at addressing the potential of public finance to enhance the provision of water supply and sanitation as a public service. It highlights the problems associated with (and the disappointing results obtained from) resort to Private Sector Participation and private finance, both historically and in the last 15-20 years, in developed and developing countries. It also addresses the advantages of using public finance as a more cost-effective and equitable instrument to achieve developmental objectives such as the expansion of service coverage and development of water and sanitation infrastructure. The potential of public operations in maximising developmental impact from the social, economic and environmental points of view is then explored referring to specific examples from a variety of countries and regions. These include the in-house restructuring of public operations to enhance transparency, accountability and effectiveness, as well as the use of Public-Public Partnerships (PUPs) to build capacity. Attention is devoted to the specific financial requirements of expanding sewerage services at global level to achieve MDGs or broader developmental goals. These requirements are revisited in light of a regional breakdown of coverage gaps, available resources and development aid flows. These findings challenge the established view among international and bilateral agencies that expanding sewerage services in developing countries is excessively costly and should be abandoned as a priority because unaffordable. This contribution draws on a number of PSIRU Reports, and particularly the following. - http://www.psiru.org/reports/2008-03-W-sewers.pdf - http://boell-latinoamerica.org/download_es/agua08_privatizacion_LA_2007.pdf - http://boell-latinoamerica.org/download_es/agua08_agua_un_servicio_publico.pdf - http://www.psiru.org/reports/2006-03-W-investment.pdf All PSIRU Reports are accessible at http://www.psiru.org/publicationsindex.asp.

Welfare Effort and Poverty from the Monetary and Capabilities Approach: A Cross-Country Analysis in Latin American and the Caribbean (1990-2010)

There is abundant empirical evidence on the negative relationship between welfare effort and poverty. However, poverty indicators traditionally used have been representative of the monetary approach, excluding its multidimensional reality from the analysis. Using three regression techniques for the period 1990-2010 and controlling for demographic and cyclical factors, this paper examines the relationship between social spending per capita —as the indicator of welfare effort— and poverty in up to 21 countries of the region. The proportion of the population with an income below its national basic basket of goods and services (PM1) and the proportion of population with an income below 50% of the median income per capita (PM2) were the two poverty indicators considered from the monetarist approach to measure poverty. From the capability approach the proportion of the population with food inadequacy (PC1) and the proportion of the population without access to improved water sources or sanitation facilities (PC2) were used. The fi ndings confi rm that social spending is actually useful to explain changes in poverty (PM1, PC1 and PC2), as there is a high negative and signifi cant correlation between the variables before and after controlling for demographic and cyclical factors. In two regression techniques, social spending per capita did not show a negative relationship with the PM2. Countries with greater welfare effort for the period 1990-2010 were not necessarily those with the lowest level of poverty. Ultimately social spending per capita was more useful to explain changes in poverty from the capability approach.

Remediation technologies for heavy metal contaminated ground water

This is a major review work on ground water remediation since the earlier work of Mulligan et al published in 2001 in Engineering Geology Journal. This work resulted from the joint research project of QUB and University of Malaya on iron removal from groundwater for public water supply.

Water efficiency as a means of reducing carbon emissions in Northern Ireland (NI) Water

The water and sewerage sectors' combined emissions account for just over 1% of total UK emissions, while household water heating accounts for a further 5%. Energy use, particularly electricity, is the largest source of emissions in the sector. Water efficiency measures should therefore result in reduced emissions from a lower demand for water and wastewater treatment and pumping, as well as from decreased domestic water heating. Northern Ireland Water (NI Water) is actively pursuing measures to reduce its carbon footprint. This paper investigated the carbon impacts of implementing a household water efficiency programme in Northern Ireland. Assuming water savings of 59.6 L/prop/day and 15% uptake among households, carbon savings of 0.6% of NI Water's current net operational emissions are achievable from reduced treatment and pumping. Adding the carbon savings from reduced household water heating gives savings equivalent to 6.2% of current net operational emissions. Cost savings to NI Water are estimated as 300,000 per year. The cost of the water efficiency devices is approximately 1.6 million, but may be higher depending on the number of devices distributed relative to the number installed. This paper has shown clear carbon benefits to water efficiency, but further research is needed to examine social and cost impacts. © IWA Publishing 2013.

Advanced monitoring of South Portugal water bodies towards WFD

The challenge on implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) fosters the development of new monitoring methods and approaches. It is now commonly accepted that the use of classical monitoring campaigns in discrete point is not sufficient to fully assess and describe a water body. Due to this the WFD promote the use of modelling techniques in surface waters to assist all phases of the process, from characterisation and establishment of reference conditions to identification of pressures and assessment of impact. The work presented in this communication is based on these principles. A classical monitoring of the water status of the main transitional water bodies of Algarve (south of Portugal) is combined with advanced in situ water profiling and hydrodynamic, water quality and ecological modelling of the systems to build a complete description of its state. This approach extends spatially and temporally the resolution of the classical point sampling. The methodology was applied during a 12 month program in Ria Formosa coastal lagoon, the Guadiana estuary and the Arade estuary. The synoptic profiling uses an YSI 6600 EDS multi-parameter system attached to a boat and a GPS receiver to produce monthly synoptic maps of the systems. This data extends the discrete point sampling with laboratory analysis performed monthly in several points of each water body. The point sampling is used to calibrate the profiling system and to include variables, such as nutrients, not measured by the sensors. A total of 1427 samplings were performed for physical and chemical parameters, chlorophyll and microbiologic contamination in the water column. This data is used to drive the hydrodynamic, transport and ecological modules of the MOHID water modelling system (www.mohid.com), enabling an integrate description of the water column.

Optimatization of hybrid renewable energy systems on isolated microgrids : a smart grid approach

Tese de doutoramento, Sistemas Sustentáveis de Energia, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2016

Simulation model for driving dynamics, energy use and power supply

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Energia

Uso eficiente da água num edifício de habitação

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil

Aplicação do conceito de gestão de ativos físicos numa estação elevatória de águas

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Abastecimento de água e drenagem de águas residuais no concelho de Cinfães

O presente relatório, desenvolvido no âmbito do estágio curricular realizado na Câmara Municipal de Cinfães, tem como objetivo caracterizar os sistemas de Abastecimento de Água e Drenagem de Água Residuais em Cinfães, analisando o seu funcionamento e a sustentabilidade de possíveis cenários futuros. Deste modo, o relatório inicia-se com a caracterização do Concelho, no seu enquadramento regional. Em seguida, são caracterizados os sistemas de água e saneamento, incluindo a evolução das redes de abastecimento, antes e depois da integração no sistema multimunicipal da Águas do Douro e Paiva (AdDP), de acordo com registos camarários. Nessa linha, foram analisados os problemas existentes e realizada uma caracterização da qualidade do serviço prestado atualmente, por ambos os sistemas. Tomando em consideração os dados de avaliação da Entidade Reguladora (ERSAR), conclui-se que os sistemas em causa estão ainda, de forma geral, aquém dos valores considerados de referência para a boa qualidade da prestação de serviços, em especial no que toca à cobertura dos serviços. Não obstante, por realização de um inquérito a uma amostra de 53 utentes dos sistemas de abastecimento de água e drenagem de águas residuais de Cinfães foi possível verificar que, o grau de satisfação é razoável ao nível da qualidade da água, garantia de pressões, níveis de falhas, rapidez de resposta na correção das mesmas e ainda das tarifas praticadas. Por último, é analisado um estudo, levado a cabo pelo consórcio Norteágua, para o grupo Águas de Portugal, relativamente à evolução dos sistemas de abastecimento de água e de drenagem e tratamento de águas residuais, em Cinfães. Neste capítulo, são abordadas situações de intervenção, propostas de evolução dos sistemas e estimativa de custos para essas soluções. Com base nesses elementos é feita uma avaliação simplificada da sustentabilidade económica dos sistemas na situação futura. Dessa análise foi possível concluir que a situação mais gravosa corresponde à drenagem e tratamento de águas residuais.

O contrato de prestação de serviços de fornecimento de água

The theme of thid thesis is the water supply services contract. The texto starts with an analysis of the service, aimed at clarifying what is the system organization and the principles applicable to this essential public service. Then the water supply services contract is analyzed according to the law on essential public services. Subsequently, connections are established with other applicable laws and the differing doctrinal and jurisprudential perspectives are presented. The thesis ends with an outlook on the dispute resolution mechanisms at the users’ disposal.

As conversas informais na reconstituição

The theme of thid thesis is the water supply services contract. The texto starts with an analysis of the service, aimed at clarifying what is the system organization and the principles applicable to this essential public service. Then the water supply services contract is analyzed according to the law on essential public services. Subsequently, connections are established with other applicable laws and the differing doctrinal and jurisprudential perspectives are presented. The thesis ends with an outlook on the dispute resolution mechanisms at the users’ disposal.