Galp Energia: Equity research

UNL - NSBE

Nationalisme économique et réalisme mercantile : la politique énergétique russe sous Poutine (2000-2008)

Mon travail met en évidence la restructuration de l'industrie énergétique russe sous les deux mandats Poutine (2000-2008) via le rôle prédominant de l'État dans une perspective historique. Une nouvelle élite politique russe (les Silovikis) issue des structures de force de l'Etat favorise le nationalisme économique axé sur le rétablissement de l'autorité du gouvernement central au sein de l'industrie énergétique nationale au détriment des pouvoirs régionaux, des sociétés privées étrangères et des oligarques indépendants. Dans cette perspective, on peut citer "l'affaire Youkos" en 2003 caractérisée par l'arrestation de l'oligarque Mikhaïl Khodorkhovsky; les tentatives silovikiennes de reprendre l'ascendant sur les compagnies pétrolières régionales Tatneft et Bachneft gérées par les gouvernements tatar et bachkir, la pression fiscale envers les majors pétrolières étrangères à l'instar du conflit russo- britannique relatif à la joint-venture TNK-BP. Quant à la politique énergétique étrangère russe, elle est inspirée par line vision réaliste mercantile; le gouvernement silovikien vise à défendre l'intérêt national, le prestige et la puissance de la Russie via ses "champions" énergétiques Rosneft et Gazprom utilisés comme levier politique, notamment à l'égard des pays de la CEI considéré par Moscou comme sa sphère d'influence historique. Dans cette perspective, nous pouvons mentionner l'interruption des approvisionnements pétroliers et gaziers russes à l'Ukraine, aux Etats baltes ou encore à la Géorgie; la concurrence entre les majors russes et étrangères en Asie centrale / Caucase pour les champs pétrolifères et les tracés de pipelines (nouveau «Grand Jeu»); la diversification des marchés russes à l'exportation à travers la promotion de nouveaux pipelines partant des champs pétrolifères sibériens vers la Chine et l'océan Pacifique.¦My work highlights the restructuration of the Russian energy industry under the 2 Putin madates (2000-2008) by the predominant role of the state in a historical perspective. A new Russian politic elite (Siloviki) from state structure forces promotes the economic nationalism focused on the reestablishment of the central governmental authority in the national energy industry against regional powers, private foreign companies and independent oligarchs. In this perspective, we can mention the "Yukos Affair" in 2003 with the arrest of the oligarch Mikhail Khodorkhovsky; the silovikian attempts to take over the regional oil companies Tatneft and Bachneft handled by the Tatar and Bashkir governments; the fiscal silovikian pressure against foreign companies such as the Russo-Britannic joint- venture TNK-BP. As for the Russian energy Foreign policy, it is inspired by a mercantile realism vision; the silovikian government aims to defend the national interest, the prestige and the power of Russia through its energy companies Rosneft and Gazprom as a political leverage especially toward the CEI Countries considered by Moscow as it historical sphere of influence. In this perspective, we can mention the interruption of Russian oil&gas supply toward Ukraine, Baltic states or Georgia; the competition between Russian and foreign companies in Central Asia/Caucasus for oil and gas fields and pipeline routes (new "Great Game"); the diversification of Russian export markets through the promotion ο new pipelines from Siberian oil&gas fields to China and the Pacific Ocean.

AMADEUS: advanced manipulation for deep underwater sampling

AMADEUS is a dexterous subsea robot hand incorporating force and slip contact sensing, using fluid filled tentacles for fingers. Hydraulic pressure variations in each of three flexible tubes (bellows) in each finger create a bending moment, and consequent motion or increase in contact force during grasping. Such fingers have inherent passive compliance, no moving parts, and are naturally depth pressure-compensated, making them ideal for reliable use in the deep ocean. In addition to the mechanical design, development of the hand has also considered closed loop finger position and force control, coordinated finger motion for grasping, force and slip sensor development/signal processing, and reactive world modeling/planning for supervisory `blind grasping¿. Initially, the application focus is for marine science tasks, but broader roles in offshore oil and gas, salvage, and military use are foreseen. Phase I of the project is complete, with the construction of a first prototype. Phase I1 is now underway, to deploy the hand from an underwater robot arm, and carry out wet trials with users.

AMADEUS: advanced manipulation for deep underwater sampling

AMADEUS is a dexterous subsea robot hand incorporating force and slip contact sensing, using fluid filled tentacles for fingers. Hydraulic pressure variations in each of three flexible tubes (bellows) in each finger create a bending moment, and consequent motion or increase in contact force during grasping. Such fingers have inherent passive compliance, no moving parts, and are naturally depth pressure-compensated, making them ideal for reliable use in the deep ocean. In addition to the mechanical design, development of the hand has also considered closed loop finger position and force control, coordinated finger motion for grasping, force and slip sensor development/signal processing, and reactive world modeling/planning for supervisory `blind grasping¿. Initially, the application focus is for marine science tasks, but broader roles in offshore oil and gas, salvage, and military use are foreseen. Phase I of the project is complete, with the construction of a first prototype. Phase I1 is now underway, to deploy the hand from an underwater robot arm, and carry out wet trials with users.

Empirics of the international inequality in CO2 emissions intensity: explanatory factors according to complementary decomposition methodologies

This paper analyses the international inequalities in CO2 emissions intensity for the period 1971–2009 and assesses explanatory factors. Multiplicative, group and additive methodologies of inequality decomposition are employed. The first allows us to clarify the separated role of the carbonisation index and the energy intensity in the pattern observed for inequalities in CO2 intensities; the second allows us to understand the role of regional groups; and the third allows us to investigate the role of different fossil energy sources (coal, oil and gas). The results show that, first, the reduction in global emissions intensity has coincided with a significant reduction in international inequality. Second, the bulk of this inequality and its reduction are attributed to differences between the groups of countries considered. Third, coal is the main energy source explaining these inequalities, although the growth in the relative contribution of gas is also remarkable. Fourth, the bulk of inequalities between countries and its decline are explained by differences in energy intensities, although there are significant differences in the patterns demonstrated by different groups of countries. JEL codes: D39; Q43; Q56. Key words: CO2 international distribution, inequality decomposition, CO2 emissions intensity

Energy security of the Baltic States

Energy security is an important topic on the world agenda and has augmented its importance since the term “peak oil” was coined. Energy security is a crucial issue for most countries but some are more dependent on foreign supply than others. Traditionally, the Baltic States have been dependent on Russia for much of their oil and gas supplies, which makes them vulnerable to political pressure. Therefore, energy security, that is ensuring sufficient supply and safe delivery and in this case reduce dependency on a single provider – Russia, entails a conspicuous foreign policy dimension. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been described as energy islands within the EU. This paper tries to answer the question if energy security of the Baltic States has improved since their accession to the EU in 2004. Additionally, it will analyse the prospects of energy security, noting that one of the Lithuanian aims during its European presidency in 2013 is to improve energy security of the Baltic States by fostering cooperation with EU member states.

Electrical Machines' Market in Russia

Venäjän valtion osuus maailmantaloudesta on pieni verrattuna sen maantieteelliseen kokoon, väkilukuun ja luonnonvaroihin. Sitä pidetään kuitenkin yhtenä tulevaisuuden merkittävistä kasvumarkkinoista. Venäjällä on tyypillisesti teollisuutta, joka hyödyntää luonnonvaroja ja tuottaa raaka-aineita sekä kotimaan että ulkomaiden markkinoille. Tällaisia tyypillisiä teollisuudenaloja Venäjällä ovat kaivos- ja metsäteollisuus sekä kemikaalien- kaasun- ja öljyntuotanto. Myös näiden teollisuusalojen tarvitsemien tuotantolaitteiden ja koneiden valmistusta on Venäjällä. Näitä koneita viedään Venäjältä entisiin neuvostovaltioihin ja päinvastoin. Tässä diplomityössä tutkitaan sähkömoottorien markkinapotentiaalia ja kilpailutilannetta Venäjällä. Venäjän osalta perehdytään sen kansantalouden tilaan ja tutkitaan sähkökonemarkkinoiden kokoa segmenteittäin monien erilähteiden avulla. Venäjän arvioidaan olevan erittäin potentiaalinen ja kasvava markkina-alue. Diplomityössä selvitetään ostoprosessia Venäjällä ja sähkökonemarkkinoiden ominaisuuksia kyseisellä alueella.

Öljytuotteiden ja maakaasun myyntitilastotietokannan kehittäminen

Diplomityössä on tutkittu ja tarkasteltu Öljy- ja Kaasualan Keskusliiton käytössä olevaa myyntitietokantaa,joka sisältää Suomessa toimivien öljy- ja kaasualan toimijoiden volyymit. Tarkastelun alla ovat olleet tietokannan nykyiset käytön aikana ilmenneet puutteet, sekä mandolliset tulevaisuuden tarpeet. Kehitystyö on suoritettu tiiviissä yhteistyössä Öljy- ja Kaasualan Keskusliiton sekä asiaa koskevien öljyalanyhtiöiden kanssa. Näin on saatu poistettua useita tietokannan toimintaa rajoittavia tekijöitä ja nykyisin tarpeettomia toimintoja sekä lisättyä monia uusia ominaisuuksia olemassa olevaan tietokantaan.

Ympäristömittausten laadun varmentaminen Porvoon jalostamolla

Diplomityön tarkoituksena on selvittää tämänhetkiset Fortum Oil and Gas Oy:n Porvoon öljynjalostamolla suoritettavat ympäristömittaukset ja –määritykset. Samalla arvioidaan täyttävätkö ympäristömittaukset ja –määritykset niille ympäristölainsäädännössä jo asetetut ja lähiaikoina voimaan tulevat vaatimukset. Työssä esitetyissä jalostamoa koskevissa uusissa lainsäädännön velvoitteisssa päästötiedontuotannon laadun varmennuksella on suuri rooli. Työn ensimmäisessä osassa selvitetään ympäristömittausten nykykäytäntö Porvoon jalostamolla. Nykykäytännön selvitys perustuu jalostamon olemassa oleviin toimintajärjestelmän ohjeisiin ja henkilöhaastatteluihin. Samalla tarkastellaan jalostamon toimintaa koskevia uusia lainsäädännön tuomia velvoitteita päästöjen tarkkailulle ja raportoinnille. Työn toisessa osiossa esitetään käytetyt laadunvarmennusmenetelmät mittausten ja määritysten eri tiedontuotantoketjujen vaiheissa. Samalla verrataan toteutettuja päästö- ja ympäristömittauksia uusiin lainsäädännön tuomiin vaatimuksiin, toimintajärjestelmän ohjeistukseen, standardeihin ja tarkkailun parhaan käyttökelpoisen tekniikan vertailuasiakirjaan (Monitoring-BREF). Selvityksen tuloksia voidaan käyttää jalostamon päästötietojen keräysmenetelmien ja tiedontuotantoketjujen laadun varmentamisen saattamiseksi vastaamaan niille asetettuja vaatimuksia. Selvityksen perusteella lupaehdoissa Porvoon jalostamolle asetetut nykyiset vaatimukset päästöjen ja ympäristövaikutusten seurannalle täyttyvät. Jalostamolla on tehtävä parannuksia päästöjentarkkailu ja –raportointimenetelmiin, jotta tulevat lainsäädännön vaatimukset tulevat täytetyksi. Jalostamon päästömittausten tiedontuotantoketjut eivät kaikissa määrityksissä täytä tarkkailun BREF-asiakirjassa esitettyjä vaatimuksia määritysten laadunvarmennukselle ja läpinäkyvyydelle. Työssä on esitetty korjaavat toimenpiteet.

Venäläisten yritysten kansainvälistyminen

Tämän kandidaatintyön tavoitteena on selvittää ja analysoida venäläisten yritysten kansainvälistymistä investointien näkökulmasta. Aihetta tutkittiin Venäjältä ulospäin suuntautuneiden investointien valossa. Kansainvälistymistä analysoitiin konkreettisten yritysesimerkkien kautta. Työssä käytettiin lähteinä aikaisempia aiheesta tehtyjä tutkimuksia sekä esimerkkeinä olevien yritysten internetsivuja. Venäläisten yritysten kansainvälistyminen alkoi toden teolla vasta Neuvostoliiton hajoamisen jälkeen. Käytännössä yritysten kansainvälistyminen on lähtenyt kasvuun vasta 2000-luvulla. Viime vuosien aikana Venäjä on ollut yksi suurimmista ulospäin investoijista nousevien markkinatalouksien joukossa. Suurimmat Venäjältä ulospäin investoijat toimivat öljy- ja kaasuteollisuudessa sekä metalli- ja kaivosteollisuudessa. Kyseiset teollisuudenalat ovat riippuvaisia raaka-aineiden maailmanmarkkinahinnoista. Vuoden 2008 lopulla alkanut talouskriisi on alentanut raaka-aineiden hintoja ja näin vaikuttanut yritysten toimintaan. Yritykset ovat joutuneet talousvaikeuksiin, joka on vaikuttanut myös niiden investointeihin ulkomaille. Tällä hetkellä Venäjä on riippuvainen luonnonvaroihin perustuvista teollisuudenaloista, mutta tulevaisuudessa uusilla yrityksillä on mahdollisuuksia nousta kansainvälisien yritysten joukkoon. Raaka-aineiden hintojen kääntyessä jälleen nousuun myös luonnonvaroihin perustuvat yritykset tulevat nousemaan ahdingosta ja jatkamaan kansainvälistymistä.

Wood pellet markets in Russia

Bioenergy came to Russia through wood pellets. On account of prevalence of oil and gas in the Russian economy «bioenergy» has come with a great delay. Certainly, there were many woodworking enterprises and even municipal boiler-houses using wood waste and fire wood for energy reception, but this activity was not purposeful. More likely it was connected with necessity of waste recycling and with the organization of heat supply in the remote areas of the country. However, in 2001 was founded the first pellet plant in Russia. The purpose of this work was to analyze wood pellets market in Russia, investigate current situation on the home and export market, evaluates supply and demand development, opportunities for wood pellets manufactures in Russia, the main manufactures in Russian market; cost and prices for wood pellets in Russia. Also the work was intended to give better understanding of the main problems of wood pellets industry in Russia. Besides, this work had updated information about Russian customs and logistic systems.

Performance Improvement of Centrifugal Compressor Stage with Pinched Geometry or Vaned Diffuser

Centrifugal compressors are widely used for example in refrigeration processes, the oil and gas industry, superchargers, and waste water treatment. In this work, five different vaneless diffusers and six different vaned diffusers are investigated numerically. The vaneless diffusers vary only by their diffuser width, so that four of the geometries have pinch implemented to them. Pinch means a decrease in the diffuser width. Four of the vaned diffusers have the same vane turning angle and a different number of vanes, and two have different vane turning angles. The flow solver used to solve the flow fields is Finflo, which is a Navier-Stokes solver. All the cases are modeled with the Chien's k – έ- turbulence model, and selected cases are modeled also with the k – ώ-SST turbulence model. All five vaneless diffusers and three vaned diffusers are investigated also experimentally. For each construction, the compressor operating map is measured according to relevant standards. In addition to this, the flow fields before and after the diffuser are measured with static and total pressure, flow angle and total temperature measurements. When comparing the computational results to the measured results, it is evident that the k – ώ-SST turbulence model predicts the flow fields better. The simulation results indicate that it is possible to improve the efficiency with the pinch, and according to the numerical results, the two best geometries are the ones with most pinch at the shroud. These geometries have approximately 4 percentage points higher efficiency than the unpinched vaneless diffusers. The hub pinch does not seem to have any major benefits. In general, the pinches make the flow fields before and after the diffuser more uniform. The pinch also seems to improve the impeller efficiency. This is down to two reasons. The major reason is that the pinch decreases the size of slow flow and possible backflow region located near the shroud after the impeller. Secondly, the pinches decrease the flow velocity in the tip clearance, leading to a smaller tip leakage flow and therefore slightly better impeller efficiency. Also some of the vaned diffusers improve the efficiency, the increment being 1...3 percentage points, when compared to the vaneless unpinched geometry. The measurement results confirm that the pinch is beneficial to the performance of the compressor. The flow fields are more uniform with the pinched cases, and the slow flow regions are smaller. The peak efficiency is approximately 2 percentage points and the design point efficiency approximately 4 percentage points higher with the pinched geometries than with the un- pinched geometry. According to the measurements, the two best geometries are the ones with the most pinch at the shroud, the case with the pinch only at the shroud being slightly better of the two. The vaned diffusers also have better efficiency than the vaneless unpinched geometries. However, the pinched cases have even better efficiencies. The vaned diffusers narrow the operating range considerably, whilst the pinch has no significant effect on the operating range.

Empirics of the international inequality in CO2 emissions intensity: explanatory factors according to complementary decomposition methodologies

This paper analyses the international inequalities in CO2 emissions intensity for the period 1971- 2009 and assesses explanatory factors. Multiplicative, group and additive methodologies of inequality decomposition are employed. The first allows us to clarify the separated role of the carbonisation index and the energy intensity in the pattern observed for inequalities in CO2 intensities; the second allows us to understand the role of regional groups; and the third allows us to investigate the role of different fossil energy sources (coal, oil and gas). The results show that, first, the reduction in global emissions intensity has coincided with a significant reduction in international inequality. Second, the bulk of this inequality and its reduction are attributed to differences between the groups of countries considered. Third, coal is the main energy source explaining these inequalities, although the growth in the relative contribution of gas is also remarkable. Fourth, the bulk of inequalities between countries and its decline are explained by differences in energy intensities, although there are significant differences in the patterns demonstrated by different groups of countries.

Development of Russian Ports in The Gulf of Finland

Russia has been one of the fastest developing economic areas in the world. Based on the GDP, the Russian economy grew evenly since the crisis in 1998 up till 2008. The growth in the gross domestic product has annually been some 5–10%. In 2007, the growth reached 8.1%, which is the highest figure after the 10% growth in 2000. Due to the growth of the economy and wage levels, purchasing power and consumption have been strongly increasing. The growing consumption has especially increased the imports of durables, such as passenger cars, domestic appliances and electronics. The Russian ports and infrastructure have not been able to satisfy the growing needs of exports and imports, which is why quite a large share of Russian foreign trade is going through third countries as transit transports. Finnish ports play a major role in transit transports to and from Russia. About 15% of the total value of Russian imports was transported through Finland in 2008. The economic recession that started in autumn 2008 and continues to date has had an impact on the economic development of Russia. The export income has decreased, mainly due to the reduced world market prices of energy products (oil and gas) and raw minerals. Investments have been postponed, getting credit is more difficult than before, and the ruble has weakened in relation to the euro and the dollar. The imports are decreasing remarkably, and are not forecast to reach the 2008 volumes even in 2012. The economic crisis is reflected in Finland's transit traffic. The volume of goods transported through Finland to and from Russia has decreased almost in the same proportion as the imports of goods to Russia. The biggest risk threatening the development of the Russian economy over long term is its dependence on export income from oil, gas, metals, minerals and forest products, as well as the trends of the world market prices of these products. Nevertheless, it is expected that the GDP of Russia will start to grow again in the forthcoming years due to the increased demand for energy products and raw minerals in the world. At the same time, it is obvious that the world market prices of these products will go up with the increasing demand. The increased income from exports will lead to a growth of imports, especially those of consumer goods, as the living standard of Russian citizens rises. The forecasts produced by the Russian Government concerning the economic development of Russia up till 2030 also indicate a shift in exported goods from raw materials to processed products, which together with energy products will become the main export goods of Russia. As a consequence, Russia may need export routes through third countries, which can be seen as an opportunity for increased transit transports through the ports of Finland. The ports competing with the ports of Finland for Russian foreign trade traffic are the Russian Baltic Sea ports and the ports of the Baltic countries. The strongest competitors are the Baltic Sea ports handling containers. On the Russian Baltic Sea, these ports include Saint Petersburg, Kaliningrad and, in the near future, the ports of Ust-Luga and possibly Vyborg. There are plans to develop Ust-Luga and Vyborg as modern container ports, which would become serious competitors to the Finnish ports. Russia is aiming to redirect as large a share as possible of foreign trade traffic to its own ports. The ports of Russia and the infrastructure associated with them are under constant development. On the other hand, the logistic capacity of Russia is not able to satisfy the continually growing needs of the Russian foreign trade. The capacity problem is emphasized by a structural incompatibility between the exports and imports in the Russian foreign trade. Russian exports can only use a small part of the containers brought in with imports. Problems are also caused by the difficult ice conditions and narrow waterways leading to the ports. It is predicted that Finland will maintain its position as a transit route for the Russian foreign trade, at least in the near future. The Russian foreign trade is increasing, and Russia will not be able to develop its ports in proportion with the increasing foreign trade. With the development of port capacity, cargo flows through the ports of Russia will grow. Structural changes in transit traffic are already visible. Firms are more and more relocating their production to Russia, for example as regards the assembly of cars and warehousing services. Simultaneously, an increasing part of transit cargoes are sent directly to Russia without unloading and reloading in Finland. New product groups have nevertheless been transported through Finland (textile products and tools), replacing the lost cargos. The global recession that started in autumn 2008 has influenced the volume of Russian imports and, consequently, the transit volumes of Finland, but the recession is not expected to be of long duration, and will thus only have a short-term impact on transit volumes. The Finnish infrastructure and services offered by the logistic chain should also be ready to react to the changes in imported product groups as well as to the change in Russian export products in the future. If the development plans of the Russian economy are realized, export products will be more refined, and the share of energy and raw material products will decrease. The other notable factor to be taken into consideration is the extremely fast-changing business environment in Russia. Operators in the logistic chain should be flexible enough to adapt to all kinds of changes to capitalise on business opportunities offered by the Russian foreign trade for the companies and for the transit volumes of Finnish ports, also in the future.

Emissões naturais e antrópicas de nitrogênio, fósforo e metais para a bacia do Rio Macaé (Macaé, RJ, Brasil) sob influência das atividades de exploração de petroleo e gás na Bacia de Campos

Emission factors of natural processes and anthropogenic activities were used to estimate nutrients and metal loads for the lower Macaé river basin, which hosts the operational base for the offshore oil and gas exploration in the Campos Basin. The estimates indicated that emissions from anthropogenic activities are higher than natural emissions. Major contributing drivers include husbandry and urbanization, whose effluents receive no treatment. The increasing offshore oil exploration along the Brazilian littoral has resulted in rapid urbanization and, therefore might increase the inshore emission of anthropogenic chemicals in cases where effective residue control measures are not implemented in fluvial basins of the region.