The theory of classical Greek music

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The role of different factors related to social impact of heavy events: considerations about the intensity thresholds in densely populated areas

In the assessment of social impact caused by meteorological events, factors of different natures need to be considered. Not only does hazard itself determine the impact that a severe weather event has on society, but also other features related to vulnerability and exposure. The requests of data related to insurance claims received in meteorological services proved to be a good indicator of the social impact that a weather event causes, according to studies carried out by the Social Impact Research Group, created within the framework of the MEDEX project. Taking these requests as proxy data, diverse aspects connected to the impact of heavy rain events have been studied. The rainfall intensity, in conjunction with the population density, has established itself as one of the key factors in social impact studies. One of the conclusions we obtained is that various thresholds of rainfall should be applied for areas of varying populations. In this study, the role of rainfall intensity has been analysed for a highly populated urban area like Barcelona. A period without significant population changes has been selected for the study to minimise the effects linked to vulnerability and exposure modifications. First, correlations between rainfall recorded in different time intervals and requests were carried out. Afterwards, a method to include the intensity factor in the social impact index was suggested based on return periods given by intensity duration frequency (IDF) curves.

Essays on pricing of risk and international linkage of Russian stock market

Last two decades have seen a rapid change in the global economic and financial situation; the economic conditions in many small and large underdeveloped countries started to improve and they became recognized as emerging markets. This led to growth in the amounts of global investments in these countries, partly spurred by expectations of higher returns, favorable risk-return opportunities, and better diversification alternatives to global investors. This process, however, has not been without problems and it has emphasized the need for more information on these markets. In particular, the liberalization of financial markets around the world, globalization of trade and companies, recent formation of economic and regional blocks, and the rapid development of underdeveloped countries during the last two decades have brought a major challenge to the financial world and researchers alike. This doctoral dissertation studies one of the largest emerging markets, namely Russia. The motivation why the Russian equity market is worth investigating includes, among other factors, its sheer size, rapid and robust economic growth since the turn of the millennium, future prospect for international investors, and a number of important major financial reforms implemented since the early 1990s. Another interesting feature of the Russian economy, which gives motivation to study Russian market, is Russia’s 1998 financial crisis, considered as one of the worst crisis in recent times, affecting both developed and developing economies. Therefore, special attention has been paid to Russia’s 1998 financial crisis throughout this dissertation. This thesis covers the period from the birth of the modern Russian financial markets to the present day, Special attention is given to the international linkage and the 1998 financial crisis. This study first identifies the risks associated with Russian market and then deals with their pricing issues. Finally some insights about portfolio construction within Russian market are presented. The first research paper of this dissertation considers the linkage of the Russian equity market to the world equity market by examining the international transmission of the Russia’s 1998 financial crisis utilizing the GARCH-BEKK model proposed by Engle and Kroner. Empirical results shows evidence of direct linkage between the Russian equity market and the world market both in regards of returns and volatility. However, the weakness of the linkage suggests that the Russian equity market was only partially integrated into the world market, even though the contagion can be clearly seen during the time of the crisis period. The second and the third paper, co-authored with Mika Vaihekoski, investigate whether global, local and currency risks are priced in the Russian stock market from a US investors’ point of view. Furthermore, the dynamics of these sources of risk are studied, i.e., whether the prices of the global and local risk factors are constant or time-varying over time. We utilize the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gérard (1998). Similar to them we find price of global market risk to be time-varying. Currency risk also found to be priced and highly time varying in the Russian market. Moreover, our results suggest that the Russian market is partially segmented and local risk is also priced in the market. The model also implies that the biggest impact on the US market risk premium is coming from the world risk component whereas the Russian risk premium is on average caused mostly by the local and currency components. The purpose of the fourth paper is to look at the relationship between the stock and the bond market of Russia. The objective is to examine whether the correlations between two classes of assets are time varying by using multivariate conditional volatility models. The Constant Conditional Correlation model by Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Engle (2002), and an asymmetric version of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Cappiello et al. (2006) are used in the analysis. The empirical results do not support the assumption of constant conditional correlation and there was clear evidence of time varying correlations between the Russian stocks and bond market and both asset markets exhibit positive asymmetries. The implications of the results in this dissertation are useful for both companies and international investors who are interested in investing in Russia. Our results give useful insights to those involved in minimising or managing financial risk exposures, such as, portfolio managers, international investors, risk analysts and financial researchers. When portfolio managers aim to optimize the risk-return relationship, the results indicate that at least in the case of Russia, one should account for the local market as well as currency risk when calculating the key inputs for the optimization. In addition, the pricing of exchange rate risk implies that exchange rate exposure is partly non-diversifiable and investors are compensated for bearing the risk. Likewise, international transmission of stock market volatility can profoundly influence corporate capital budgeting decisions, investors’ investment decisions, and other business cycle variables. Finally, the weak integration of the Russian market and low correlations between Russian stock and bond market offers good opportunities to the international investors to diversify their portfolios.

Theory of surface noise under Coulomb correlations between carriers and surface states

We present a theory of the surface noise in a nonhomogeneous conductive channel adjacent to an insulating layer. The theory is based on the Langevin approach which accounts for the microscopic sources of fluctuations originated from trapping¿detrapping processes at the interface and intrachannel electron scattering. The general formulas for the fluctuations of the electron concentration, electric field as well as the current-noise spectral density have been derived. We show that due to the self-consistent electrostatic interaction, the current noise originating from different regions of the conductive channel appears to be spatially correlated on the length scale correspondent to the Debye screening length in the channel. The expression for the Hooge parameter for 1/f noise, modified by the presence of Coulomb interactions, has been derived

Self-consistent theory of current and voltage noise in multimode ballistic conductors

Electron transport in a self-consistent potential along a ballistic two-terminal conductor has been investigated. We have derived general formulas which describe the nonlinear current-voltage characteristics, differential conductance, and low-frequency current and voltage noise assuming an arbitrary distribution function and correlation properties of injected electrons. The analytical results have been obtained for a wide range of biases: from equilibrium to high values beyond the linear-response regime. The particular case of a three-dimensional Fermi-Dirac injection has been analyzed. We show that the Coulomb correlations are manifested in the negative excess voltage noise, i.e., the voltage fluctuations under high-field transport conditions can be less than in equilibrium.

Espacios olvidados, lugares diferenciados: transformación social del espacio urbano en Bogotá (1850- 1880) = Forgotten Spaces, distinct places: Social transformation of urban space in Bogotá (1850-1880)

The purpose of this article is linked to some forms of recovery of social and urban spaces fallen into oblivion that are evident in the social transformation of urban space in Bogotá between 1850 and 1880.The following paper presents the preliminary results of the research entitled practices and social uses of water in Bogotá (1850-1888). The text links in first discussions about the understanding of the city as a drawing in space, moving to describe, the growth of the city, integrating its historical, social and cultural structuring

A brief introduction to molecular orbital theory of simple polyatomic molecules for undergraduate chemistry students

A simple, four-step method for better introducing undergraduate students to the fundamentals of molecular orbital (MO) theory of the polyatomic molecules H2O, NH3, BH3 and SiH4 using group theory is reported. These molecules serve to illustrate the concept of ligand group orbitals (LGOs) and subsequent construction of MO energy diagrams on the basis of molecular symmetry requirements.

Leibniz's theory of bodies: monadic aggregates, phenomena, or both?

Leibniz's conception of bodies seems to be a puzzling theory. Bodies are seen as aggregates of monads and as wellfounded phenomena. This has initiated controversy and unending discussions. The paper attempts to resolve the apparent inconsistencies by a new and formally spirited reconstruction of Leibniz's theory of monads and perception, on the one hand, and a (re-)formulation and precisation of his concept of preestablished harmony, on the other hand. Preestablished harmony is modelled basically as a covariation between the monadic and the ideal realm.

Rebuilding Defenses: Explorations in Norman Fairclough’s Theory of Critical Discourse Analysis

Tutkielmassa eritellään Norman Faircloughin kriittisen diskurssianalyysin teoriaa ja siihen kohdistettua kritiikkiä. Pyrkimyksenä on sovittaa näitä erilaisia näkemyksiä keskenään ja tarjota ratkaisuja yhteen kiriittisen diskurssianalyysin keskeiseen ongelmaan eli emansipaation (sosiaalisten epäkohtien tunnistamisen ja ratkaisemisen) puutteellisuuteen. Teoriaosuudesta esiin nousevia mahdollisuuksia sovelletaan tekstianalyysiin. Tutkimuksen kohteena on teksti Rebuilding America’s Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources For a New Century ja jossain määrin sen tuottanut järjestö Project for the New American Century. Näitä tarkastellaan ennen kaikkea sosiaalisina ilmiöinä ja suhteessa toisiinsa. Faircloughin mallin suurimmiksi ongelmiksi muodostuvat perinteinen käsitys kielestä, jonka mukaan kielen järjestelmän abstraktit ja sisäiset suhteet ovat tärkeimpiä, sekä ideologinen vastakkainasettelu kritiikin lähtökohtana. Ensimmäinen johtaa kielellisten tutkimustulosten epätyydyttävään kykyyn selittää sosiaalisia havaintoja ja jälkimmäinen poliittiseen tai maailmankatsomukselliseen väittelyyn, joka ei mahdollista uusia näkemyksiä. Tutkielman lopputulema on, että keskittymällä asiasisältöön kielen rakenteen sijasta ja ymmärtämällä tekstin tuottaja yksittäisenä, rajattuna sosiaalisena toimijana voidaan analyysiin saada avoimuutta ja täsmällisyyttä. Kriittiinen diskurssianalyysi kaipaa tällaista näkemystä kielellisten analyysien tueksi ja uudenlaisen relevanssin löytääkseen.

Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil

Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.

The relation between the general maxim of causality and the principle of uniformity in hume's theory of knowledge

ABSTRACT When Hume, in the Treatise on Human Nature, began his examination of the relation of cause and effect, in particular, of the idea of necessary connection which is its essential constituent, he identified two preliminary questions that should guide his research: (1) For what reason we pronounce it necessary that every thing whose existence has a beginning should also have a cause and (2) Why we conclude that such particular causes must necessarily have such particular effects? (1.3.2, 14-15) Hume observes that our belief in these principles can result neither from an intuitive grasp of their truth nor from a reasoning that could establish them by demonstrative means. In particular, with respect to the first, Hume examines and rejects some arguments with which Locke, Hobbes and Clarke tried to demonstrate it, and suggests, by exclusion, that the belief that we place on it can only come from experience. Somewhat surprisingly, however, Hume does not proceed to show how that derivation of experience could be made, but proposes instead to move directly to an examination of the second principle, saying that, "perhaps, be found in the end, that the same answer will serve for both questions" (1.3.3, 9). Hume's answer to the second question is well known, but the first question is never answered in the rest of the Treatise, and it is even doubtful that it could be, which would explain why Hume has simply chosen to remove any mention of it when he recompiled his theses on causation in the Enquiry concerning Human Understanding. Given this situation, an interesting question that naturally arises is to investigate the relations of logical or conceptual implication between these two principles. Hume seems to have thought that an answer to (2) would also be sufficient to provide an answer to (1). Henry Allison, in his turn, argued (in Custom and Reason in Hume, p. 94-97) that the two questions are logically independent. My proposal here is to try to show that there is indeed a logical dependency between them, but the implication is, rather, from (1) to (2). If accepted, this result may be particularly interesting for an interpretation of the scope of the so-called "Kant's reply to Hume" in the Second Analogy of Experience, which is structured as a proof of the a priori character of (1), but whose implications for (2) remain controversial.

Reagan's mythical America : towards a narrative theory of prophetic politics

Lectio praecursoria Tampereen yliopistossa 17.8.2010.