Chronological Monte Carlo-based assessment of distribution system reliability

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties, and in some cases rewards, which introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the Maximum Continuous Interruption Duration per customer (MCID). This paper describes a chronological Monte Carlo simulation approach to evaluate probability distributions of reliability indices, including the MCID, and the corresponding penalties. In order to get the desired efficiency, modern computational techniques are used for modeling (UML -Unified Modeling Language) as well as for programming (Object- Oriented Programming). Case studies on a simple distribution network and on real Brazilian distribution systems are presented and discussed. © Copyright KTH 2006.

Influence of lower cutoff values for 100-g oral glucose tolerance test and glycemic profile for identification of pregnant women at excessive fetal growth risk

Objective: To evaluate data from patients with normal oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) results and a normal or impaired glycemic profile (GP) to determine whether lower cutoff values for the OGTT and GP (alone or combined) could identify pregnant women at risk for excessive fetal growth. Methods: We classified 701 pregnant women with positive screening for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) into 2 categories - (1) normal 100-g OGTT and normal GP and (2) normal 100-g OGTT and impaired GP - to evaluate the influence of lower cutoff points in a 100-g OGTT and GP (alone or in combination) for identification of pregnant women at excessive fetal growth risk. The OGTT is considered impaired if 2 or more values are above the normal range, and the GP is impaired if the fasting glucose level or at least 1 postprandial glucose value is above the normal range. To establish the criteria for the OGTT (for fasting and 1, 2, and 3 hours after an oral glucose load, respectively), we considered the mean (75 mg/dL, 120 mg/dL, 113 mg/dL, and 97 mg/dL), mean plus 1 SD (85 mg/dL, 151 mg/dL, 133 mg/dL, and 118 mg/dL), and mean plus 2 SD (95 mg/dL, 182 mg/dL, 153 mg/dL, and 139 mg/dL); and for the GP, we considered the mean and mean plus 1 SD (78 mg/dL and 92 mg/dL for fasting glucose levels and 90 mg/dL and 130 mg/dL for 1- or 2-hour postprandial glucose levels, respectively). Results: Subsequently, the women were reclassified according to the new cutoff points for both tests (OGTT and GP). Consideration of values, in isolation or combination, yielded 6 new diagnostic criteria. Excessive fetal growth was the response variable for analysis of the new cutoff points. Odds ratios and their respective confidence intervals were estimated, as were the sensitivity and specificity related to diagnosis of excessive fetal growth for each criterion. The new cutoff points for the tests, when used independently rather than collectively, did not help to predict excessive fetal growth in the presence of mild hyperglycemia. Conclusion: Decreasing the cutoff point for the 100-g OGTT (for fasting and 1, 2, and 3 hours) to the mean (75 mg/dL, 120 mg/dL, 113 mg/dL, and 97 mg/dL) in association with the GP (mean or mean plus 1 SD-78 mg/dL and 92 mg/dL for the fasting state and 90 mg/dL and 130 mg/dL for 1- or 2-hour postprandial values-increased the sensitivity and specificity, and both criteria had statistically significant predictive power for detection of excessive fetal growth. © 2008 AACE.

Mapping hazard risk: A case study of Ubatuba, Brazil

Steep slopes in subtropical zones are always at risk from landslides. The risk greatly increases when there is rapid, unplanned urban growth. This has happened at Ubatuba on the Brazilian coast - tourism-related development has forced local people into narrow valleys with steep slopes. In this article the authors describe how the hazard risk can be mapped, helping the local authorities to control the problem.

Risk of metabolic syndrome in postmenopausal breast cancer survivors

The aim of this study was to assess the risk of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in postmenopausal breast cancer survivors as compared with postmenopausal women without breast cancer. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, 104 postmenopausal breast cancer survivors were compared with 208 postmenopausal women (controls) attending a university hospital. Eligibility criteria included the following: amenorrhea longer than 12 months and aged 45 years or older, treated for breast cancer, and metastasis-free for at least 5 years. The control group consisted of women with amenorrhea longer than 12 months and aged 45 years or older and without breast cancer, matched by age and menopause status (in a proportion of 1:2 as sample calculation). Clinical and anthropometric data were collected. Biochemical parameters, including total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose, and C-reactive protein, were measured. Women showing three or more diagnostic criteria were diagnosed as having MetS: waist circumference of 88 cm or larger, blood pressure of 130/85 mm Hg or higher, triglycerides level of 150 mg/dL or higher, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level lower than 50 mg/dL, and glucose level of 100 mg/dL or higher. For statistical analysis, Student's t test, χ2 test, and logistic regression (odds ratio [OR]) were used. RESULTS: The mean (SD) age of breast cancer survivors was 60.6 (8.6) years, with a mean (SD) follow-up of 9.4 (4.4) years. A higher percentage of breast cancer survivors (46.2%) were obese as compared with controls (32.7%; P < 0.05), and a smaller percentage showed optimal values for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, glucose, and C-reactive protein versus controls (P < 0.05). MetS was diagnosed in 50% of breast cancer survivors and in 37.5% of control group women (P < 0.05). Among the MetS diagnostic criteria, the most prevalent was abdominal obesity (waist circumference >88 cm), affecting 62.5% and 67.8% of the participants, respectively. In the control group, breast cancer survivors had a higher risk for MetS (OR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.04-2.68), dysglycemia (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.09-3.03), and hypertension (OR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.02-2.89). CONCLUSIONS: Postmenopausal breast cancer survivors present a higher risk of developing MetS as compared with women without breast cancer. © 2012 by The North American Menopause Society.

Season of birth as a risk factor for multiple sclerosis in Brazil

Risk factors for development of multiple sclerosis (MS) are still a matter of debate. Latitude gradient, vitamin D deficiency and season of birth are among the most investigated environmental factors associated with the disease. Several international studies suggest that birth in spring is a substantial risk factor for MS. We investigated the season of birth as a potential risk for MS in different geographical regions of Brazil. We conducted a cross-sectional retrospective study with 2257 clinically definite MS patients enrolled in 13 Brazilian MS clinics in the south, southeast, and northeast regions of Brazil. Demographic and clinical data relating to date of birth and clinical features of the disease were collected and analysed, and subsequently compared with birth date among the general Brazilian population. The distribution of date of birth of MS patients showed an increase in spring and a decrease in autumn, with no difference being observed in the other seasons. In conclusion, season of birth is a probable risk factor for MS in most parts of Brazil. These findings may be related to the role that vitamin D plays in MS pathogenesis. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk/investment-driven transmission expansion planning with multiple scenarios

This study presents a new methodology based on risk/investment to solve transmission network expansion planning (TNEP) problem with multiple future scenarios. Three mathematical models related to TNEP problems considering multiple future generation and load scenarios are also presented. These models will provide planners with a meaningful risk assessment that enable them to determine the necessary funding for transmission lines at a permissible risk level. The results using test and real systems show that the proposed method presents better solutions compared with scenario analysis method. ©The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2013.

Report of the meeting on methodologies for disaster assessment-a regional approach

.--Background.--Agenda item 1 Welcome and opening remarks.--Agenda item 2 The Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States.--Agenda item 3 Methodologies for Risk Reduction at the Community Level.--Agenda item 4 Methodologies for Disaster Impact Assessment.--Agenda item 5 Ongoing Initiatives in Disaster Risk Reduction.--Agenda item 6 Optimizing the use of existing methodologies for addressing disasters.--Agenda item 7 Innovative financing mechanisms for risk reduction.--Agenda item 8 Regional collaboration for disaster risk reduction.--Agenda item 9 Simulation exercise.--Agenda item 10 Wrap-up, reflection and charting the way forward.--The Way Forward.--Immediate Tasks.--Annex - List of Participants.

Cardiac risk stratification in cardiac rehabilitation programs: a review of protocols

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Safety assessment of essential medicines for elderly people: a bibliographic survey

Certain medicines are considered potentially inappropriate (PIM) for elderly people as they increase the risk of adverse drug events (ADE) and because safer alternative therapies are available on the market. In this context, in order to identify the instruments that assess the quality of medical prescriptions for elderly and to determine which drugs are considered PIM, a bibliographic survey was conducted in PUBMED, LILACS and PAHO databases, in February and March/2010. The search strategy included the use of health descriptors and a manual search in the references cited by selected papers. During the period of data collection, 15 instruments were identified. In 2012, with the publication of the update of Beers criteria, this instrument was included in the study. We identified 163 PIM of 25 therapeutic classes, of which 125 (76.7%) are marketed in Brazil. Of these, 31 (24.8%) are essential medicines (RENAME 2012), of which 13 have safer therapeutic equivalents and 19 (15.2%) are over-the-counter drugs. Data suggest the need for inclusion of safer alternatives for the elderly in the national list of essential medicines and the pharmaceutical care for early detection of ADE in this age group, in order to contribute to the safe use of medicines.

Is Everyone Rated Equal? An Examination of Factors Related to Sexual Risk in Ethnically Diverse Male Adolescents Who Have Sexually Offended

As the juvenile justice system has evolved, there has been a need for clinicians to make judgments about risk posed by adolescents who have committed sexual offenses. There are inherent difficulties in attempting to assess risk for violence among adolescents due to the developmental changes taking place and the absence of well-validated instruments to guide risk prediction judgments. With minority groups increasing in numbers in the U.S., it is likely that professionals will encounter minority individuals when conducting risk assessments. Overall questions regarding race/ethnicity have been neglected and there are few if any published research that explores risk factors with minority juvenile sex offenders. The present study examined whether differences exist between Caucasian and racial/ethnic minority adolescent sexual offenders on four risk assessment measures (J-SORRAT-II, J-SOAP-II, SAVRY, and ERASOR). The sample of 207 male adolescent sexual offenders was drawn from treatment facilities in a Midwestern state. Overall results indicated that minority adolescent sex offenders had fewer risk factors endorsed than Caucasian youth across all risk assessment tools. Exploration of interactions between race and factors such as: family status, exposure to family violence, and family history of criminality upon the assessment tools risk ratings yielded non-significant findings. Limitations, suggestions for future directions, and clinical implications are discussed.

Wildlife Risk Management at Vancouver International Airport

The Vancouver International Airport (YVR) is the second busiest airport in Canada. YVR is located on Sea Island in the Fraser River Estuary - a world-class wintering and staging area for hundreds of thousands of migratory birds. The Fraser Delta supports Canada’s largest wintering populations of waterfowl, shorebirds, and raptors. The large number of aircraft movements and the presence of many birds near YVR pose a wide range of considerable aviation safety hazards. Until the late 1980s when a full-time Wildlife Control Program (WCP) was initiated, YVR had the highest number of bird strikes of any Canadian commercial airport. Although the risks of bird strikes associated with the operation of YVR are generally well known by airport managers, and a number of risk assessments have been conducted associated with the Sea Island Conservation Area, no quantitative assessment of risks of bird strikes has been conducted for airport operations at YVR. Because the goal of all airports is to operate safely, an airport wildlife management program strives to reduce the risk of bird strikes. A risk assessment establishes the current risk of strikes, which can be used as a benchmark to focus wildlife control activities and to assess the effectiveness of the program in reducing bird strike risks. A quantitative risk assessment also documents the process and information used in assessing risk and allows the assessment to be repeated in the future in order to measure the change in risk over time in an objective and comparative manner. This study was undertaken to comply with new Canadian legislation expected to take effect in 2006 requiring airports in Canada to conduct a risk assessment and develop a wildlife management plan. Although YVR has had a management plan for many years, it took this opportunity to update the plan and conduct a risk assessment.

A comparison of CA125, HE4, risk ovarian malignancy algorithm (ROMA), and risk malignancy index (RMI) for the classification of ovarian masses

OBJECTIVE: Differentiation between benign and malignant ovarian neoplasms is essential for creating a system for patient referrals. Therefore, the contributions of the tumor markers CA125 and human epididymis protein 4 (HE4) as well as the risk ovarian malignancy algorithm (ROMA) and risk malignancy index (RMI) values were considered individually and in combination to evaluate their utility for establishing this type of patient referral system. METHODS: Patients who had been diagnosed with ovarian masses through imaging analyses (n = 128) were assessed for their expression of the tumor markers CA125 and HE4. The ROMA and RMI values were also determined. The sensitivity and specificity of each parameter were calculated using receiver operating characteristic curves according to the area under the curve (AUC) for each method. RESULTS: The sensitivities associated with the ability of CA125, HE4, ROMA, or RMI to distinguish between malignant versus benign ovarian masses were 70.4%, 79.6%, 74.1%, and 63%, respectively. Among carcinomas, the sensitivities of CA125, HE4, ROMA (pre-and post-menopausal), and RMI were 93.5%, 87.1%, 80%, 95.2%, and 87.1%, respectively. The most accurate numerical values were obtained with RMI, although the four parameters were shown to be statistically equivalent. CONCLUSION: There were no differences in accuracy between CA125, HE4, ROMA, and RMI for differentiating between types of ovarian masses. RMI had the lowest sensitivity but was the most numerically accurate method. HE4 demonstrated the best overall sensitivity for the evaluation of malignant ovarian tumors and the differential diagnosis of endometriosis. All of the parameters demonstrated increased sensitivity when tumors with low malignancy potential were considered low-risk, which may be used as an acceptable assessment method for referring patients to reference centers.

Predictors of the risk of falls among elderly with chronic atrial fibrillation

OBJECTIVES: Though elderly persons with chronic atrial fibrillation have more comorbidities that could limit indications for the chronic use of anticoagulants, few studies have focused on the risk of falls within this particular group. To evaluate the predictors of the risk of falls among elderly with chronic atrial fibrillation, a cross-sectional, observational study was performed. METHODS: From 295 consecutive patients aged 60 years or older with a history of atrial fibrillation who were enrolled within the last 2 years in the cardiogeriatrics outpatient clinic of the Instituto do Coracao do Hospital das Clinicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de Sao Paulo, 107 took part in this study. Their age was 77.9 +/- 6.4 years, and 62 were female. They were divided into two groups: a) no history of falls in the previous year and b) a history of one or more falls in the previous year. Data regarding the history of falls and social, demographic, anthropometric, and clinical information were collected. Multidimensional assessment instruments and questionnaires were applied. RESULTS: At least one fall was reported in 55 patients (51.4%). Among them, 27 (49.1%) presented recurrent falls, with body lesions in 90.4% and fractures in 9.1% of the cases. Multivariate logistic regression showed that self-reported difficulty maintaining balance, use of amiodarone, and diabetes were independent variables associated with the risk of falls, with a sensitivity of 92.9% and a specificity of 44.9%. CONCLUSION: In a group of elderly patients with chronic atrial fibrillation who were relatively independent and able to attend an outpatient clinic, the occurrence of falls with recurrence and clinical consequences was high. Difficulty maintaining balance, the use of amiodarone and a diagnosis of diabetes mellitus were independent predictors of the risk for falls. Thus, simple clinical data predicted falls better than objective functional tests.

Cadmium Uptake by Lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) as Basis for Derivation of Risk Limits in Soils

The availability and uptake of Cd by lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) in two common tropical soils (before and after liming) were studied in order to derive human health-based risk soil concentration. Cadmium concentrations ranging from 1 to 12 mg kg(-1) were added to samples from a clayey Oxisol and a sandy-loam Ultisol under glasshouse conditions. After incubation, a soil sample was taken from each pot, the concentration of Cd in the soil was determined, lettuce was grown during 36 d, and the edible parts were harvested and analyzed for Cd. A positive linear correlation was observed between total soil Cd and the Cd concentration in lettuce. The amount of Cd absorbed by lettuce grown in the Ultisol was about twice the amount absorbed in the Oxisol. Liming increased the soil pH and slightly reduced Cd availability and uptake. CaCl2 extraction was better than DTPA to reflect differences in binding strength of Cd between limed and unlimed soils. Risk Cd concentrations in the Ultisol were lower than in the Oxisol, reflecting the greater degree of uptake from the Ultisol. The derived risk Cd values were dependent on soil type and the exposure scenario.

Long-term dietary exposure to lead in young European children: comparing a pan-European approach with a national exposure assessment

Long-term dietary exposures to lead in young children were calculated by combining food consumption data of 11 European countries categorised using harmonised broad food categories with occurrence data on lead from different Member States (pan-European approach). The results of the assessment in children living in the Netherlands were compared with a long-term lead intake assessment in the same group using Dutch lead concentration data and linking the consumption and concentration data at the highest possible level of detail. Exposures obtained with the pan-European approach were higher than the national exposure calculations. For both assessments cereals contributed most to the exposure. The lower dietary exposure in the national study was due to the use of lower lead concentrations and...