MCMC Analysis for Optimization of Stochastic Models

In any decision making under uncertainties, the goal is mostly to minimize the expected cost. The minimization of cost under uncertainties is usually done by optimization. For simple models, the optimization can easily be done using deterministic methods.However, many models practically contain some complex and varying parameters that can not easily be taken into account using usual deterministic methods of optimization. Thus, it is very important to look for other methods that can be used to get insight into such models. MCMC method is one of the practical methods that can be used for optimization of stochastic models under uncertainty. This method is based on simulation that provides a general methodology which can be applied in nonlinear and non-Gaussian state models. MCMC method is very important for practical applications because it is a uni ed estimation procedure which simultaneously estimates both parameters and state variables. MCMC computes the distribution of the state variables and parameters of the given data measurements. MCMC method is faster in terms of computing time when compared to other optimization methods. This thesis discusses the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for optimization of Stochastic models under uncertainties .The thesis begins with a short discussion about Bayesian Inference, MCMC and Stochastic optimization methods. Then an example is given of how MCMC can be applied for maximizing production at a minimum cost in a chemical reaction process. It is observed that this method performs better in optimizing the given cost function with a very high certainty.

METHODOLOGY FOR AUTOMATICALLY DELIMITING PERMANENT PRESERVATION AREAS ALONG WATER COURSES - THE USE OF GIS IN THE HYDROLOGICAL BASIN OF THE SERGIPE RIVER, BRAZIL

ABSTRACT Permanent Preservation Areas (PPAs) along watercourses have been the focus of numerous studies, not only because of the fragility and ecological relevance of riverine vegetation, but also because of the inefficiency demonstrated in conforming to the legislation protecting it. One of the major difficulties encountered in terms of guaranteeing the effective conservation of these riverside areas is the absence of methodologies that can be used to define them rapidly and accurately without manually determining the widths of the rivers or assigning only uniform linear values for the entire watercourse. The present work sought to develop a spatial analysis methodology capable of automatically defining permanent preservation areas along watercourses using geographic information system (GIS) software. The present study was undertaken in the Sergipe River basin, "considering the river itself and its principal affluents. We used the database of the Digital Atlas of Hydrological Resources (SEMARH/SE), and the delimitations of the PPAs were performed using ArcGIS 10.1 and the XToolPro 9.0 extension. A total of 5,003.82 hectares of Permanent Preservation Areas were delimited along the margins of the rivers analyzed, with a margin of error of <1% in delimiting the widths of the rivers within the entire area considered. The methodology described here can be used to define PPAs efficiently, relatively rapidly, and with very small margins of error, thus representing a technological advance in terms of using GIS for land management.

Search Engine Optimization Methods & Search Engine Indexing for CMS Applications

Search engine optimization & marketing is a set of processes widely used on websites to improve search engine rankings which generate quality web traffic and increase ROI. Content is the most important part of any website. CMS web development is now become very essential for most of organizations and online businesses to develop their online system and websites. Every online business using a CMS wants to get users (customers) to make profit and ROI. This thesis comprises a brief study of existing SEO methods, tools and techniques and how they can be implemented to optimize a content base website. In results, the study provides recommendations about how to use SEO methods; tools and techniques to optimize CMS based websites on major search engines. This study compares popular CMS systems like Drupal, WordPress and Joomla SEO features and how implementing SEO can be improved on these CMS systems. Having knowledge of search engine indexing and search engine working is essential for a successful SEO campaign. This work is a complete guideline for web developers or SEO experts who want to optimize a CMS based website on all major search engines.

Simulation and optimization of IGCC technique for power generation and hydrogen production by using lignite Thar coal and cotton stalk

The purpose of this study was to simulate and to optimize integrated gasification for combine cycle (IGCC) for power generation and hydrogen (H2) production by using low grade Thar lignite coal and cotton stalk. Lignite coal is abundant of moisture and ash content, the idea of addition of cotton stalk is to increase the mass of combustible material per mass of feed use for the process, to reduce the consumption of coal and to increase the cotton stalk efficiently for IGCC process. Aspen plus software is used to simulate the process with different mass ratios of coal to cotton stalk and for optimization: process efficiencies, net power generation and H2 production etc. are considered while environmental hazard emissions are optimized to acceptance level. With the addition of cotton stalk in feed, process efficiencies started to decline along with the net power production. But for H2 production, it gave positive result at start but after 40% cotton stalk addition, H2 production also started to decline. It also affects negatively on environmental hazard emissions and mass of emissions/ net power production increases linearly with the addition of cotton stalk in feed mixture. In summation with the addition of cotton stalk, overall affects seemed to negative. But the effect is more negative after 40% cotton stalk addition so it is concluded that to get maximum process efficiencies and high production less amount of cotton stalk addition in feed is preferable and the maximum level of addition is estimated to 40%. Gasification temperature should keep lower around 1140 °C and prefer technique for studied feed in IGCC is fluidized bed (ash in dry form) rather than ash slagging gasifier

Rational use of water in a poultry slaughterhouse in the state of Paraná, Brazil: a case study

Agroindustries are major consumers of water. However, to adapt to environmental trends and be competitive in the market, they have sought rational use of water through water management in their activities. Cleaner Production can result in economic, environmental and social benefits, and in actions that promote reduction in water consumption. This case study was conducted in a slaughterhouse and poultry cold storage processing plant and aimed to identify points of excessive water consumption, and to propose alternatives for managing water resources by reducing consumption. Consumption data are presented in relation to the processing stages with alternatives proposed for the rational use of water, such as closure of mains water during shift changes. Following the implementation of recommendations, a reduction in water consumption of approximately 11,137 m³ per month was obtained, which equates to a savings of US$ 99,672 per year. From this study, it was concluded that the company under review could develop various improvement actions and make an important contribution to the preservation of water resources in the region where it operates.

Natural shading and productivity index of broiler chickens

The appropriate use of natural resources in the design of broiler houses provides a reduction in farming operating costs and optimization of production conditions. Therefore, the natural shading around the broiler house can be an alternative for improving internal conditions of comfort. This study verified the efficiency of natural shading in the broiler productivity index (PI) in East-West oriented commercial housings. The PI of 32 commercial broiler houses in five flocks divided throughout a year was compared. The sheds had the same management, density and the same structural features, except from tree shading: on the North face; on the South face; on both faces and without shading. It was observed that broiler house in East-West direction with shading on the South face had higher productivity index compared to houses with shading only on the North face or on both sides, between autumn and spring. For the summer period, sheds without shading showed productivity indexes superior to others.

The Possibilities and Dosimetric Limitations of MLC-Based Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy Delivery and Optimization Techniques

The use of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) has increased extensively in the modern radiotherapy (RT) treatments over the past two decades. Radiation dose distributions can be delivered with higher conformality with IMRT when compared to the conventional 3D-conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT). Higher conformality and target coverage increases the probability of tumour control and decreases the normal tissue complications. The primary goal of this work is to improve and evaluate the accuracy, efficiency and delivery techniques of RT treatments by using IMRT. This study evaluated the dosimetric limitations and possibilities of IMRT in small (treatments of head-and-neck, prostate and lung cancer) and large volumes (primitive neuroectodermal tumours). The dose coverage of target volumes and the sparing of critical organs were increased with IMRT when compared to 3D-CRT. The developed split field IMRT technique was found to be safe and accurate method in craniospinal irradiations. By using IMRT in simultaneous integrated boosting of biologically defined target volumes of localized prostate cancer high doses were achievable with only small increase in the treatment complexity. Biological plan optimization increased the probability of uncomplicated control on average by 28% when compared to standard IMRT delivery. Unfortunately IMRT carries also some drawbacks. In IMRT the beam modulation is realized by splitting a large radiation field to small apertures. The smaller the beam apertures are the larger the rebuild-up and rebuild-down effects are at the tissue interfaces. The limitations to use IMRT with small apertures in the treatments of small lung tumours were investigated with dosimetric film measurements. The results confirmed that the peripheral doses of the small lung tumours were decreased as the effective field size was decreased. The studied calculation algorithms were not able to model the dose deficiency of the tumours accurately. The use of small sliding window apertures of 2 mm and 4 mm decreased the tumour peripheral dose by 6% when compared to 3D-CRT treatment plan. A direct aperture based optimization (DABO) technique was examined as a solution to decrease the treatment complexity. The DABO IMRT technique was able to achieve treatment plans equivalent with the conventional IMRT fluence based optimization techniques in the concave head-and-neck target volumes. With DABO the effective field sizes were increased and the number of MUs was reduced with a factor of two. The optimality of a treatment plan and the therapeutic ratio can be further enhanced by using dose painting based on regional radiosensitivities imaged with functional imaging methods.

On Innovative Search: the use of internal and external sources of innovation among Finnish innovators

This dissertation explores the use of internal and external sources of knowledge in modern innovation processes. It builds on a framework that combines theories such as a behavioural theory of the firm, the evolutionary theory of economic change, and modern approaches to strategic management. It follows the recent increase in innovation research focusing on the firm-level examination of innovative activities instead of traditional industry-level determinants. The innovation process is seen as a problem- and slack- driven search process, which can take several directions in terms of organizational boundaries in the pursuit of new knowledge and other resources. It thus draws on recent models of technological change, according to which firms nowadays should build their innovative activities on both internal and external sources of innovation rather than relying solely on internal resources. Four different research questions are addressed, all of which are empirically investigated via a rich dataset covering Finnish innovators collected by Statistics Finland. Firstly, the study examines how the nature of problems shapes the direction of any search for new knowledge. In general it demonstrates that the nature of the problem does affect the direction of the search, although under resource constraints firms tend to use external rather than internal sources of knowledge. At the same time, it shows that those firms that are constrained in terms of finance seem to search both internally and externally. Secondly, the dissertation investigates the relationships between different kinds of internal and external sources of knowledge in an attempt to find out where firms should direct their search in order to exploit the potential of a distributed innovation process. The concept of complementarities is applied in this context. The third research question concerns how the use of external knowledge sources – openness to external knowledge – influences the financial performance of firms. Given the many advantages of openness presented in the current literature, the focus is on how it shapes profitability. The results reveal a curvilinear relationship between profitability and openness (taking an inverted U-shape), the implication being that it pays to be open up to a certain point, but being too open to external sources may be detrimental to financial performance. Finally, the dissertation addresses some challenges in CISbased innovation research that have received relatively little attention in prior studies. The general aim is to underline the fact that comprehensive understanding of the complex process of technological change requires the constant development of methodological approaches (in terms of data and measures, for example). All the empirical analyses included in the dissertation are based on the Finnish CIS (Finnish Innovation Survey 1998-2000).

Tertiary Treatment and Re-use of Kraft Pulp Mill Effluent

The efficient use of materials and natural recourses, for ecological and economic reasons, has become more and more important in all industries. In the forest industries this means higher levels of closure in the material circulations of the mills. One possibility to reduce wastewater discharge is to re-use part of the 2nd clarifier effluent as process water. The main target of this thesis was to evaluate the technical suitability of several mechanical and chemical tertiary treatment methods for water re-use. Some of the tested methods seemed to have high potential for the removal of some specific constituents from the wastewater. Tertiary treatment is needed because higher levels of closure may cause problems with increasing amounts of non-process elements in different points of kraft pulp process. The aspect of sustainable development was taken into account by evaluating positive and negative environmental effects of the treatment processes. Environmental benefits can be gained by using some of the tertiary treatment methods tested. These methods should still be researched more for system optimization.

Methodology for wind turbine blade geometry optimization

Nowadays, the upwind three bladed horizontal axis wind turbine is the leading player on the market. It has been found to be the best industrial compromise in the range of different turbine constructions. The current wind industry innovation is conducted in the development of individual turbine components. The blade constitutes 20-25% of the overall turbine budget. Its optimal operation in particular local economic and wind conditions is worth investigating. The blade geometry, namely the chord, twist and airfoil type distributions along the span, responds to the output measures of the blade performance. Therefore, the optimal wind blade geometry can improve the overall turbine performance. The objectives of the dissertation are focused on the development of a methodology and specific tool for the investigation of possible existing wind blade geometry adjustments. The novelty of the methodology presented in the thesis is the multiobjective perspective on wind blade geometry optimization, particularly taking simultaneously into account the local wind conditions and the issue of aerodynamic noise emissions. The presented optimization objective approach has not been investigated previously for the implementation in wind blade design. The possibilities to use different theories for the analysis and search procedures are investigated and sufficient arguments derived for the usage of proposed theories. The tool is used for the test optimization of a particular wind turbine blade. The sensitivity analysis shows the dependence of the outputs on the provided inputs, as well as its relative and absolute divergences and instabilities. The pros and cons of the proposed technique are seen from the practical implementation, which is documented in the results, analysis and conclusion sections.

Optimization of parameters for fiber laser-MAG hybrid welding in shipbuilding applications

The Arctic region becoming very active area of the industrial developments since it may contain approximately 15-25% of the hydrocarbon and other valuable natural resources which are in great demand nowadays. Harsh operation conditions make the Arctic region difficult to access due to low temperatures which can drop below -50 °C in winter and various additional loads. As a result, newer and modified metallic materials are implemented which can cause certain problems in welding them properly. Steel is still the most widely used material in the Arctic regions due to high mechanical properties, cheapness and manufacturability. Moreover, with recent steel manufacturing development it is possible to make up to 1100 MPa yield strength microalloyed high strength steel which can be operated at temperatures -60 °C possessing reasonable weldability, ductility and suitable impact toughness which is the most crucial property for the Arctic usability. For many years, the arc welding was the most dominant joining method of the metallic materials. Recently, other joining methods are successfully implemented into welding manufacturing due to growing industrial demands and one of them is the laser-arc hybrid welding. The laser-arc hybrid welding successfully combines the advantages and eliminates the disadvantages of the both joining methods therefore produce less distortions, reduce the need of edge preparation, generates narrower heat-affected zone, and increase welding speed or productivity significantly. Moreover, due to easy implementation of the filler wire, accordingly the mechanical properties of the joints can be manipulated in order to produce suitable quality. Moreover, with laser-arc hybrid welding it is possible to achieve matching weld metal compared to the base material even with the low alloying welding wires without excessive softening of the HAZ in the high strength steels. As a result, the laser-arc welding methods can be the most desired and dominating welding technology nowadays, and which is already operating in automotive and shipbuilding industries with a great success. However, in the future it can be extended to offshore, pipe-laying, and heavy equipment industries for arctic environment. CO2 and Nd:YAG laser sources in combination with gas metal arc source have been used widely in the past two decades. Recently, the fiber laser sources offered high power outputs with excellent beam quality, very high electrical efficiency, low maintenance expenses, and higher mobility due to fiber optics. As a result, fiber laser-arc hybrid process offers even more extended advantages and applications. However, the information about fiber or disk laser-arc hybrid welding is very limited. The objectives of the Master’s thesis are concentrated on the study of fiber laser-MAG hybrid welding parameters in order to understand resulting mechanical properties and quality of the welds. In this work only ferrous materials are reviewed. The qualitative methodological approach has been used to achieve the objectives. This study demonstrates that laser-arc hybrid welding is suitable for welding of many types, thicknesses and strength of steels with acceptable mechanical properties along very high productivity. New developments of the fiber laser-arc hybrid process offers extended capabilities over CO2 laser combined with the arc. This work can be used as guideline in hybrid welding technology with comprehensive study the effect of welding parameter on joint quality.

Effect of plant row spacing and herbicide use on weed aboveground biomass and corn grain yield

The use of narrow plant spacing in corn (Zea mays) has been suggested as a technological alternative to obtain grain yield increases, due to a better use of resources. The regular pattern could diminish intraspecific competition while favoring interspecific competition with weeds. The objective of this study was to analyze the effect of corn row spacing on weed aboveground biomass and corn grain yield. Field experiments were conducted during 2002/2003 and 2003/2004 growing seasons. Three corn hybrids with two-row width (0.70 and 0.35 m) were tested. A greater photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) interception with a lower weed aboveground dry matter in narrow row arrangement was obtained. Corn grain yield was greater in the narrow row arrangement than in the wide row spacing. This increase in grain yield was related to a better resource use that allows for a reduced interspecific competition. The use of reduced spatial arrangement appeared to be an interesting alternative to increase both the grain yield potential and corn suppressive ability against weeds in corn dryland production systems.

Towards sustainable Iron- and steelmaking with economic optimization

The iron and steelmaking industry is among the major contributors to the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide in the world. The rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and the global concern about the greenhouse effect and climate change have brought about considerable investigations on how to reduce the energy intensity and CO2 emissions of this industrial sector. In this thesis the problem is tackled by mathematical modeling and optimization using three different approaches. The possibility to use biomass in the integrated steel plant, particularly as an auxiliary reductant in the blast furnace, is investigated. By pre-processing the biomass its heating value and carbon content can be increased at the same time as the oxygen content is decreased. As the compression strength of the preprocessed biomass is lower than that of coke, it is not suitable for replacing a major part of the coke in the blast furnace burden. Therefore the biomass is assumed to be injected at the tuyere level of the blast furnace. Carbon capture and storage is, nowadays, mostly associated with power plants but it can also be used to reduce the CO2 emissions of an integrated steel plant. In the case of a blast furnace, the effect of CCS can be further increased by recycling the carbon dioxide stripped top gas back into the process. However, this affects the economy of the integrated steel plant, as the amount of top gases available, e.g., for power and heat production is decreased. High quality raw materials are a prerequisite for smooth blast furnace operation. High quality coal is especially needed to produce coke with sufficient properties to ensure proper gas permeability and smooth burden descent. Lower quality coals as well as natural gas, which some countries have in great volumes, can be utilized with various direct and smelting reduction processes. The DRI produced with a direct reduction process can be utilized as a feed material for blast furnace, basic oxygen furnace or electric arc furnace. The liquid hot metal from a smelting reduction process can in turn be used in basic oxygen furnace or electric arc furnace. The unit sizes and investment costs of an alternative ironmaking process are also lower than those of a blast furnace. In this study, the economy of an integrated steel plant is investigated by simulation and optimization. The studied system consists of linearly described unit processes from coke plant to steel making units, with a more detailed thermodynamical model of the blast furnace. The results from the blast furnace operation with biomass injection revealed the importance of proper pre-processing of the raw biomass as the composition of the biomass as well as the heating value and the yield are all affected by the pyrolysis temperature. As for recycling of CO2 stripped blast furnace top gas, substantial reductions in the emission rates are achieved if the stripped CO2 can be stored. However, the optimal recycling degree together with other operation conditions is heavily dependent on the cost structure of CO2 emissions and stripping/storage. The economical feasibility related to the use of DRI in the blast furnace depends on the price ratio between the DRI pellets and the BF pellets. The high amount of energy needed in the rotary hearth furnace to reduce the iron ore leads to increased CO2 emissions.

Targeted Annotation of Scientific Literature and Data Resources in Invenio Digital Libraries

Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

A DNS Bases Approach To Electronic Persistance, or "If Your Pants Fit, Why Use Suspenders?"

Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014