Evaluating the Predictability of the Volatility Smile Using Return Distributions

In this paper, we examine the predictability of observed volatility smiles in three major European index options markets, utilising the historical return distributions of the respective underlying assets. The analysis involves an application of the Black (1976) pricing model adjusted in accordance with the Jarrow-Rudd methodology as proposed in 1982. Thereby we adjust the expected future returns for the third and fourth central moments as these represent deviations from normality in the distributions of observed returns. Thus, they are considered one possible explanation to the existence of the smile. The obtained results indicate that the inclusion of the higher moments in the pricing model to some extent reduces the volatility smile, compared with the unadjusted Black-76 model. However, as the smile is partly a function of supply, demand, and liquidity, and as such intricate to model, this modification does not appear sufficient to fully capture the characteristics of the smile.

Spatial survival probability for one-dimensional fluctuating interfaces in the steady state

We report numerical and analytic results for the spatial survival probability for fluctuating one-dimensional interfaces with Edwards-Wilkinson or Kardar-Parisi-Zhang dynamics in the steady state. Our numerical results are obtained from analysis of steady-state profiles generated by integrating a spatially discretized form of the Edwards-Wilkinson equation to long times. We show that the survival probability exhibits scaling behavior in its dependence on the system size and the "sampling interval" used in the measurement for both "steady-state" and "finite" initial conditions. Analytic results for the scaling functions are obtained from a path-integral treatment of a formulation of the problem in terms of one-dimensional Brownian motion. A "deterministic approximation" is used to obtain closed-form expressions for survival probabilities from the formally exact analytic treatment. The resulting approximate analytic results provide a fairly good description of the numerical data.

Algorithms for Colouring Random k-colourable Graphs

The k-colouring problem is to colour a given k-colourable graph with k colours. This problem is known to be NP-hard even for fixed k greater than or equal to 3. The best known polynomial time approximation algorithms require n(delta) (for a positive constant delta depending on k) colours to colour an arbitrary k-colourable n-vertex graph. The situation is entirely different if we look at the average performance of an algorithm rather than its worst-case performance. It is well known that a k-colourable graph drawn from certain classes of distributions can be ii-coloured almost surely in polynomial time. In this paper, we present further results in this direction. We consider k-colourable graphs drawn from the random model in which each allowed edge is chosen independently with probability p(n) after initially partitioning the vertex set into ii colour classes. We present polynomial time algorithms of two different types. The first type of algorithm always runs in polynomial time and succeeds almost surely. Algorithms of this type have been proposed before, but our algorithms have provably exponentially small failure probabilities. The second type of algorithm always succeeds and has polynomial running time on average. Such algorithms are more useful and more difficult to obtain than the first type of algorithms. Our algorithms work as long as p(n) greater than or equal to n(-1+is an element of) where is an element of is a constant greater than 1/4.

Probability Distribution of the Eigenvalues of the Random String Equation

The probability distribution of the eigenvalues of a second-order stochastic boundary value problem is considered. The solution is characterized in terms of the zeros of an associated initial value problem. It is further shown that the probability distribution is related to the solution of a first-order nonlinear stochastic differential equation. Solutions of this equation based on the theory of Markov processes and also on the closure approximation are presented. A string with stochastic mass distribution is considered as an example for numerical work. The theoretical probability distribution functions are compared with digital simulation results. The comparison is found to be reasonably good.

Optimum aperture distributions in the presence of blockage

A method is presented for optimising the performance indices of aperture antennas in the presence of blockage. An N-dimensional objective function is formed for maximising the directivity factor of a circular aperture with blockage under sidelobe-level constraints, and is minimised using the simplex search method. Optimum aperture distributions are computed for a circular aperture with blockage of circular geometry that gives the maximum directivity factor under sidelobe-level constraints.

Generating artificial chromosomes with probability control in genetic algorithm for machine scheduling problems

In this paper, a novel genetic algorithm is developed by generating artificial chromosomes with probability control to solve the machine scheduling problems. Generating artificial chromosomes for Genetic Algorithm (ACGA) is closely related to Evolutionary Algorithms Based on Probabilistic Models (EAPM). The artificial chromosomes are generated by a probability model that extracts the gene information from current population. ACGA is considered as a hybrid algorithm because both the conventional genetic operators and a probability model are integrated. The ACGA proposed in this paper, further employs the ``evaporation concept'' applied in Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) to solve the permutation flowshop problem. The ``evaporation concept'' is used to reduce the effect of past experience and to explore new alternative solutions. In this paper, we propose three different methods for the probability of evaporation. This probability of evaporation is applied as soon as a job is assigned to a position in the permutation flowshop problem. Experimental results show that our ACGA with the evaporation concept gives better performance than some algorithms in the literature.

Paradigms in Statistical Inference for Finite Populations; Up to the 1950s

Modern sample surveys started to spread after statistician at the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the 1940s had developed a sampling design for the Current Population Survey (CPS). A significant factor was also that digital computers became available for statisticians. In the beginning of 1950s, the theory was documented in textbooks on survey sampling. This thesis is about the development of the statistical inference for sample surveys. For the first time the idea of statistical inference was enunciated by a French scientist, P. S. Laplace. In 1781, he published a plan for a partial investigation in which he determined the sample size needed to reach the desired accuracy in estimation. The plan was based on Laplace s Principle of Inverse Probability and on his derivation of the Central Limit Theorem. They were published in a memoir in 1774 which is one of the origins of statistical inference. Laplace s inference model was based on Bernoulli trials and binominal probabilities. He assumed that populations were changing constantly. It was depicted by assuming a priori distributions for parameters. Laplace s inference model dominated statistical thinking for a century. Sample selection in Laplace s investigations was purposive. In 1894 in the International Statistical Institute meeting, Norwegian Anders Kiaer presented the idea of the Representative Method to draw samples. Its idea was that the sample would be a miniature of the population. It is still prevailing. The virtues of random sampling were known but practical problems of sample selection and data collection hindered its use. Arhtur Bowley realized the potentials of Kiaer s method and in the beginning of the 20th century carried out several surveys in the UK. He also developed the theory of statistical inference for finite populations. It was based on Laplace s inference model. R. A. Fisher contributions in the 1920 s constitute a watershed in the statistical science He revolutionized the theory of statistics. In addition, he introduced a new statistical inference model which is still the prevailing paradigm. The essential idea is to draw repeatedly samples from the same population and the assumption that population parameters are constants. Fisher s theory did not include a priori probabilities. Jerzy Neyman adopted Fisher s inference model and applied it to finite populations with the difference that Neyman s inference model does not include any assumptions of the distributions of the study variables. Applying Fisher s fiducial argument he developed the theory for confidence intervals. Neyman s last contribution to survey sampling presented a theory for double sampling. This gave the central idea for statisticians at the U.S. Census Bureau to develop the complex survey design for the CPS. Important criterion was to have a method in which the costs of data collection were acceptable, and which provided approximately equal interviewer workloads, besides sufficient accuracy in estimation.

Toxicant distributions and impact models in environmental risk analysis of waste sites

Myrkyllisten aineiden jakaumat ja vaikutusmallit jätealueiden ympäristöriskien analyysissä.

Scaling theory of quantum resistance distributions in disordered systems

We have derived explicitly, the large scale distribution of quantum Ohmic resistance of a disordered one-dimensional conductor. We show that in the thermodynamic limit this distribution is characterized by two independent parameters for strong disorder, leading to a two-parameter scaling theory of localization. Only in the limit of weak disorder we recover single parameter scaling, consistent with existing theoretical treatments.

Properties of Toeplitz operators on analytic function spaces : from function symbols to distributions

Toeplitz operators are among the most important classes of concrete operators with applications to several branches of pure and applied mathematics. This doctoral thesis deals with Toeplitz operators on analytic Bergman, Bloch and Fock spaces. Usually, a Toeplitz operator is a composition of multiplication by a function and a suitable projection. The present work deals with generalizing the notion to the case where the function is replaced by a distributional symbol. Fredholm theory for Toeplitz operators with matrix-valued symbols is also considered. The subject of this thesis belongs to the areas of complex analysis, functional analysis and operator theory. This work contains five research articles. The articles one, three and four deal with finding suitable distributional classes in Bergman, Fock and Bloch spaces, respectively. In each case the symbol class to be considered turns out to be a certain weighted Sobolev-type space of distributions. The Bergman space setting is the most straightforward. When dealing with Fock spaces, some difficulties arise due to unboundedness of the complex plane and the properties of the Gaussian measure in the definition. In the Bloch-type spaces an additional logarithmic weight must be introduced. Sufficient conditions for boundedness and compactness are derived. The article two contains a portion showing that under additional assumptions, the condition for Bergman spaces is also necessary. The fifth article deals with Fredholm theory for Toeplitz operators having matrix-valued symbols. The essential spectra and index theorems are obtained with the help of Hardy space factorization and the Berezin transform, for instance. The article two also has a part dealing with matrix-valued symbols in a non-reflexive Bergman space, in which case a condition on the oscillation of the symbol (a logarithmic VMO-condition) must be added.

Squeezed states, photon-number distributions, and U(l) invariance

We study the photon-number distribution in squeezed states of a single-mode radiation field. A U(l)-invariant squeezing criterion is compared and contrasted with a more restrictive criterion, with the help of suggestive geometric representations. The U(l) invariance of the photon-number distribution in a squeezed coherent state, with arbitrary complex squeeze and displacement parameters, is explicitly demonstrated. The behavior of the photon-number distribution for a representative value of the displacement and various values of the squeeze parameter is numerically investigated. A new kind of giant oscillation riding as an envelope over more rapid oscillations in this distribution is demonstrated.

Spin distributions in antiferromagnetically coupled Mn2+Cu2+ systems: from the pair to the infinite chain

Probably the most informative description of the ground slate of a magnetic molecular species is provided by the spin density map. Such a map may be experimentally obtained from polarized neutron diffraction (PND) data or theoretically calculated using quantum chemical approaches. Density functional theory (DFT) methods have been proved to be well-adapted for this. Spin distributions in one-dimensional compounds may also be computed using the density matrix renormalization group (DMRG) formalism. These three approaches, PND, DFT, and DMRG, have been utilized to obtain new insights on the ground state of two antiferromagnetically coupled Mn2+Cu2+ compounds, namely [Mn(Me-6-[14]ane-N-4)Cu(oxpn)](CF3SO3)(2) and MnCu(pba)(H2O)(3) . 2H(2)O, with Me-6-[14]ane-N-4 = (+/-)-5,7,7,12,14,14-hexamethyl-1,4,8,11-tetraazacyclotetradecane, oxpn = N,N'-bis(3-aminopropyl)oxamido and pba = 1,3-propylenebis(oxamato). Three problems in particular have been investigated: the spin distribution in the mononuclear precursors [Cu(oxpn)] and [Cu(pba)](2-), the spin density maps in the two Mn2+Cu2+ compounds, and the evolution of the spin distributions on the Mn2+ and Cu2+ sites when passing from a pair to a one-dimensional ferrimagnet.

Stochastic dynamics modeling of the protein sequence length distribution in genomes: implications for microbial evolution

In this paper, we report an analysis of the protein sequence length distribution for 13 bacteria, four archaea and one eukaryote whose genomes have been completely sequenced, The frequency distribution of protein sequence length for all the 18 organisms are remarkably similar, independent of genome size and can be described in terms of a lognormal probability distribution function. A simple stochastic model based on multiplicative processes has been proposed to explain the sequence length distribution. The stochastic model supports the random-origin hypothesis of protein sequences in genomes. Distributions of large proteins deviate from the overall lognormal behavior. Their cumulative distribution follows a power-law analogous to Pareto's law used to describe the income distribution of the wealthy. The protein sequence length distribution in genomes of organisms has important implications for microbial evolution and applications. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.