The platt of Safford [i.e. Stafford] from the mouth of upper Machotich to the mouth of Chappawamsick /

Pen-and-ink on tracing paper, mounted on cloth.

Simulating customer experience and word-of-mouth in retail: a case study

Agents offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. In this paper we describe the development of agent-based simulation models, designed to help to understand the relationship between people management practices and retail performance. We report on the current development of our simulation models which includes new features concerning the evolution of customers over time. To test the features we have conducted a series of experiments dealing with customer pool sizes, standard and noise reduction modes, and the spread of customers’ word of mouth. To validate and evaluate our model, we introduce new performance measure specific to retail operations. We show that by varying different parameters in our model we can simulate a range of customer experiences leading to significant differences in performance measures. Ultimately, we are interested in better understanding the impact of changes in staff behavior due to changes in store management practices. Our multi-disciplinary research team draws upon expertise from work psychologists and computer scientists. Despite the fact we are working within a relatively novel and complex domain, it is clear that intelligent agents offer potential for fostering sustainable organizational capabilities in the future.

La influencia del word of mouth electrónico sobre las ventas de un refresco

La comunicación boca-oreja/boca-boca o Word of Mouth, término adquirido del idioma anglosajón, es considerada una de las formas de comunicación con mayor influencia en el comportamiento de compra de los consumidores, jugando un importante rol en la modificación de las actitudes y patrones de consumo (Brown & Reingen, 1987). En la actualidad, los avances en la tecnología de la comunicación, han permitido que la información compartida entre consumidores supere las barreras geográficas propagándose de forma inmediata. Internet ofrece numerosas plataformas y puntos de reunión donde los consumidores pueden compartir sus visiones, preferencias o experiencia con los productos (Trusov, Bucklin, & Pauwels, 2009) El WOM que se genera en las redes sociales en Internet (eWOM) puede ser observado, medido y analizado. Debido a que estas conversaciones que se dan en plataformas de opinión quedan semi permanentemente archivadas, las marcas pueden explotar la información, extrayendo conocimiento acerca del consumidor que pueda facilitar la gestión de sus estrategias de marketing (Kozinets, Valck, Wojnicki, & Wilner, 2010). Esto ofrece grandes oportunidades para la investigación de la comunicación y el marketing permitiendo medir la repercusión de la comunicación interpersonal en el negocio de las compañías. La investigación que se plantea en esta Tesis Doctoral pretende conocer y analizar el fenómeno del WOM como factor influenciador en el comportamiento de compra de los consumidores. El objetivo principal es entender el comportamiento del WOM electrónico como variable influyente en las ventas de un producto y cuantificar su eficacia. Es decir, identificar en qué medida la información acerca de un producto compartida por los usuarios en entornos online, puede tener un efecto significativo en su resultado de ventas...

CALR mutation profile in Irish patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms

Insertion and/or deletion mutations of the CALR gene have recently been demonstrated to be the second most common driver mutations in the myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) of essential thrombocythemia (ET) and primary myelofibrosis (PMF). Given the diagnostic and emerging prognostic significance of these mutations, in addition to the geographical heterogeneity reported, the incidence of CALR mutations was determined in an Irish cohort of patients with MPNs with a view to incorporate this analysis into a prospective screening program. A series of 202 patients with known or suspected ET and PMF were screened for the presence of CALR mutations. CALR mutations were detected in 58 patients. Type 1 and Type 1-like deletion mutations were the most common (n = 40) followed by Type 2 and Type 2-like insertion mutations (n = 17). The CALR mutation profile in Irish ET and PMF patients appears similar to that in other European populations. Establishment of this mutational profile allows the introduction of a rational, molecular diagnostic algorithm in cases of suspected ET and PMF that will improve clinical management.

The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease at the wildlife-livestock interface in northern Tanzania

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a disease of cloven hooved animals caused by FMD virus (FMDV), is one of the most economically devastating diseases of livestock worldwide. The global burden of disease is borne largely by livestock-keepers in areas of Africa and Asia where the disease is endemic and where many people rely on livestock for their livelihoods and food-security. Yet, there are many gaps in our knowledge of the drivers of FMDV circulation in these settings. In East Africa, FMD epidemiology is complicated by the circulation of multiple FMDV serotypes (distinct antigenic variants) and by the presence of large populations of susceptible wildlife and domestic livestock. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the only wildlife species with consistent evidence of high levels of FMDV infection, and East Africa contains the largest population of this species globally. To inform FMD control in this region, key questions relate to heterogeneities in FMD prevalence and impacts in different livestock management systems and to the role of wildlife as a potential source of FMDV for livestock. To develop FMD control strategies and make best use of vaccine control options, serotype-specific patterns of circulation need to be characterised. In this study, the impacts and epidemiology of FMD were investigated across a range of traditional livestock-keeping systems in northern Tanzania, including pastoralist, agro-pastoralist and rural smallholder systems. Data were generated through field studies and laboratory analyses between 2010 and 2015. The study involved analysis of existing household survey data and generated serological data from cross-sectional livestock and buffalo samples and longitudinal cattle samples. Serological analyses included non-structural protein ELISAs, serotype-specific solid-phase competitive ELISAs, with optimisation to detect East African FMDV variants, and virus neutralisation testing. Risk factors for FMDV infection and outbreaks were investigated through analysis of cross-sectional serological data in conjunction with a case-control outbreak analysis. A novel Bayesian modeling approach was developed to infer serotype-specific infection history from serological data, and combined with virus isolation data from FMD outbreaks to characterise temporal and spatial patterns of serotype-specific infection. A high seroprevalence of FMD was detected in both northern Tanzanian livestock (69%, [66.5 - 71.4%] in cattle and 48.5%, [45.7-51.3%] in small ruminants) and in buffalo (80.9%, [74.7-86.1%]). Four different serotypes of FMDV (A, O, SAT1 and SAT2) were isolated from livestock. Up to three outbreaks per year were reported by households and active surveillance highlighted up to four serial outbreaks in the same herds within three years. Agro-pastoral and pastoral livestock keepers reported more frequent FMD outbreaks compared to smallholders. Households in all three management systems reported that FMD outbreaks caused significant impacts on milk production and sales, and on animals’ draught power, hence on crop production, with implications for food security and livelihoods. Risk factor analyses showed that older livestock were more likely to be seropositive for FMD (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.4 [1.4-1.5] per extra year) and that cattle (OR 3.3 [2.7-4.0]) were more likely than sheep and goats to be seropositive. Livestock managed by agro-pastoralists (OR 8.1 [2.8-23.6]) or pastoralists (OR 7.1 [2.9-17.6]) were more likely to be seropositive compared to those managed by smallholders. Larger herds (OR: 1.02 [1.01-1.03] per extra bovine) and those that recently acquired new livestock (OR: 5.57 [1.01 – 30.91]) had increased odds of suffering an FMD outbreak. Measures of potential contact with buffalo or with other FMD susceptible wildlife did not increase the likelihood of FMD in livestock in either the cross-sectional serological analysis or case-control outbreak analysis. The Bayesian model was validated to correctly infer from ELISA data the most recent serotype to infect cattle. Consistent with the lack of risk factors related to wildlife contact, temporal and spatial patterns of exposure to specific FMDV serotypes were not tightly linked in cattle and buffalo. In cattle, four serial waves of different FMDV serotypes that swept through southern Kenyan and northern Tanzanian livestock populations over a four-year period dominated infection patterns. In contrast, only two serotypes (SAT1 and SAT2) dominated in buffalo populations. Key conclusions are that FMD has a substantial impact in traditional livestock systems in East Africa. Wildlife does not currently appear to act as an important source of FMDV for East African livestock, and control efforts in the region should initially focus on livestock management and vaccination strategies. A novel modeling approach greatly facilitated the interpretation of serological data and may be a potent epidemiological tool in the African setting. There was a clear temporal pattern of FMDV antigenic dominance across northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Longer-term research to investigate whether serotype-specific FMDV sweeps are truly predictable, and to shed light on FMD post-infection immunity in animals exposed to serial FMD infections is warranted.

Critical swimming speed of the southern straight-mouth nase Pseudochondrostoma willkommii (Steindachner, 1866), a potamodromous cyprinid from southern Europe.

Critical swimming speed (Ucrit) of the potamodromous southern straight-mouth nase was assessed in a modified Blazka-type swim tunnel. Forty-one P. willkommii were tested and exhibited a mean± SD Ucrit of 0.54 ± 0.07 m/s. The sex of experimental fish had no effect on Ucrit but a significant positive relationship was found between swimming performance and the body condition of tested fish. Results from this study can be used to improve the current design of fish passes targeting this, or similar, potamodromous fish species.

Mapping the likelihood of foot-and-mouth disease introduction along the border between Brazil and Paraguay.

The objective of this work was to apply fuzzy majority multicriteria group decision?making to determine risk areas for foot?and?mouth disease (FMD) introduction along the border between Brazil and Paraguay. The study was conducted in three municipalities in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, located along the border with Paraguay. Four scenarios were built, applying the following linguistic quantifiers to describe risk factors: few, half, many, and most. The three criteria considered to be most likely to affect the vulnerability to introduction of FMD, according to experts? opinions, were: the introduction of animals in the farm, the distance from the border, and the type of property settlements. The resulting maps show a strong spatial heterogeneity in the risk of FMD introduction. The used methodology brings out a new approach that can be helpful to policy makers in the combat and eradication of FMD.

Developing within-company information and communication technologies (ICT) innovation diffusion networks : a study of three Australian major contractors

The innovation diffusion and knowledge management literature strongly supports the importance of communities of practice (COP) for enabling knowledge about how to use and adopt innovation initiatives. One of the most powerful tools for innovation diffusion is word-of-mouth wisdom from committed individuals who mentor and support each other. Close proximity for face-to-face interaction is highly effective, however, many organisations are geographically dispersed with projects being virtual linked sub-organisations using ICT to communicate. ICT has also introduced a useful facilitating technology for developing knowledge networks. This paper presents findings from a research program concentrating on ICT innovation diffusion in the Australian construction industry. One way in which ICT diffusion is taking place was found to be through within-company communities of practice. We undertook in-depth unstructured interviews with three of the major 10 to 15 contractors in Australia to discuss their ICT diffusion strategies. We discovered that in all three cases,within company networked communities of practice was a central strategy. Further, effective diffusion of ICT groupware tools can be critical in developing COP where they are geographically dispersed.

Australian Association for Exercise and Sport Science position stand : optimising cancer outcomes through exercise

Cancer represents a major public health concern in Australia. Causes of cancer are multifactorial with lack of physical activity being considered one of the known risk factors, particularly for breast and colorectal cancers. Participating in exercise has also been associated with benefits during and following treatment for cancer, including improvements in psychosocial and physical outcomes, as well as better compliance with treatment regimens, reduced impact of disease symptoms and treatment-related side effects, and survival benefits for particular cancers. The general exercise prescription for people undertaking or having completed cancer treatment is of low to moderate intensity, regular frequency (3-5 times/week) for at least 20 minutes per session, involving aerobic, resistance or mixed exercise types. Future work needs to push the boundaries of this exercise prescription, so that we can better understand what constitutes optimal, desirable and necessary frequency, duration, intensity and type, and how specific characteristics of the individual (e.g., age, cancer type, treatment, presence of specific symptoms) influence this prescription. What follows is a summary of the cancer and exercise literature, in particular the purpose of exercise following diagnosis of cancer, the potential benefits derived by cancer patients and survivors from participating in exercise programs, and exercise prescription guidelines and contraindications or considerations for exercise prescription with this special population. This report represents the position stand of the Australian Association of Exercise and Sport Science on exercise and cancer recovery and has the purpose of guiding Accredited Exercise Physiologists in their work with cancer patients.

Incomplete pregnancy and risk of ovarian cancer : results from two Australian case-control studies and systematic review

Although full-term pregnancies reduce the risk of ovarian cancer, it has not been conclusively established whether incomplete pregnancies also influence risk. We investigated the relationship between a history of incomplete pregnancy and incident epithelial ovarian cancer among over 4,500 women who participated in two large Australian population-based case-control studies in 1990-1993 and 2002-2005. They provided responses to detailed questions about their reproductive histories and other personal factors. Summary odds ratios (OR) and confidence intervals (CI) derived from each study using the same covariates were aggregated. We found no significant associations between the number of incomplete pregnancies and ovarian cancer, for parous (OR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.08) or nulliparous (OR = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.75, 1.48) women, nor for the number of spontaneous or induced abortions and ovarian cancer for parous women (OR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.82, 1.09; OR = 1.08, 95% CI: 0.86, 1.36) or nulliparous women (OR = 1.2, 95% CI: 0.6, 2.4; OR = 0.8, 95% CI: 0.47, 1.38), respectively. A systematic review of 37 previous studies of the topic confirmed our findings that a history of incomplete pregnancy does not influence a woman’s risk of epithelial ovarian cancer.

Tesofensine : a novel potent weight loss medicine

Background: The incidence of obesity is increasing; this is of major concern, as obesity is associated with cardiovascular disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, respiratory tract disease, and cancer. Objectives/methods: This evaluation is of a Phase II clinical trial with tesofensine in obese subjects. Results: After 26 weeks, tesofensine caused a significant weight loss, and may have a higher maximal ability to reduce weight than the presently available anti-obesity agents. However, tesofensine also increased blood pressure and heart rate, and may increase psychiatric disorders. Conclusions: It is encouraging that tesofensine 0.5 mg may cause almost double the weight loss observed with sibutramine or rimonabant. As tesofensine and sibutramine have similar pharmacological profiles, it would be of interest to compare the weight loss with tesofensine in a head-to-head clinical trial with sibutramine, to properly assess their comparative potency. Also, as teso fensine 0.5 mg increases heart rate, as well as increasing the incidence of adverse effects such as nausea, drug mouth, flatulence, insomnia, and depressed mode, its tolerability needs to be further evaluated in large Phase III clinical trials.

Depression, anxiety and body image after treatment for invasive stage one epithelial ovarian cancer

Background: Diagnosis of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) in young women has major implications including those to their reproductive potential. We evaluated depression, anxiety and body image in patients with stage I EOC treated with fertility sparing surgery (FSS) or radical surgery (RS). We also investigated fertility outcomes after FSS.----- Methods: A retrospective study was undertaken in which 62 patients completed questionnaires related to anxiety, depression, body image and fertility outcomes. Additional information on adjuvant therapy after FSS and RS and demographic details were abstracted from medical records. Both bi and multivariate regression models were used to assess the relationship between demographic, clinical and pathological results and scores for anxiety, depression and body image.----- Results: Thirty-nine patients underwent RS and the rest, FSS. The percentage of patients reporting elevated anxiety and depression (subscores ≥ 11) were 27 % and 5% respectively. The median (inter quartile range) score for body image scale (BIS) was 6 (3-15). None of the demographic or clinical factors examined showed significant association with anxiety and BIS with the exception of ‘time since diagnosis’. For depression, post-menopausal status was the only independent predictor. Among those 23 patients treated by FSS, 14 patients tried to conceive (7 successful), resulting in 7 live births, one termination of pregnancy and one miscarriage.----- Conclusion: This study shows that psychological issues are common in women treated for stage I EOC. Reproduction after FSS is feasible and lead to the birth of healthy babies in about half of patients who wished to have another child. Further prospective studies with standardised instruments are required.

Cascading appearance-based features for visual speaker verification

The cascading appearance-based (CAB) feature extraction technique has established itself as the state of the art in extracting dynamic visual speech features for speech recognition. In this paper, we will focus on investigating the effectiveness of this technique for the related speaker verification application. By investigating the speaker verification ability of each stage of the cascade we will demonstrate that the same steps taken to reduce static speaker and environmental information for the speech recognition application also provide similar improvements for speaker recognition. These results suggest that visual speaker recognition can improve considerable when conducted solely through a consideration of the dynamic speech information rather than the static appearance of the speaker's mouth region.

Marketing buzz : towards a framework for entrepreneurs

Despite the increasing recognition of the importance of word of mouth as an integral component of a firms’ marketing efforts, there has been little emphasis on developing suitable guidelines for entrepreneurs who wish to leverage scarce resources by pursuing more innovative marketing techniques. In addition, although there has been a great deal of research into the nature of social networks and interpersonal communication via word of mouth, there have been few attempts to link this research with the firms marketing strategy. In this paper, we consider the diffusion of innovation literature and recent research into social network structure and propose a framework that may be useful for enhancing the marketing efforts of entrepreneurial firms.

Latitude variation in pancreatic cancer mortality in Australia

Objectives: Ecological studies support the hypothesis that there is an association between vitamin D and pancreatic cancer (PaCa) mortality, but observational studies are somewhat conflicting. We sought to contribute further data to this issue by analyzing the differences in PaCa mortality across the eastern states of Australia and investigating if there is a role of vitamin D-effective ultraviolet radiation (DUVR), which is related to latitude. ---------- Methods: Mortality data from 1968 to 2005 were sourced from the Australian General Record of Incidence and Mortality books. Negative binomial models were fitted to calculate the association between state and PaCa mortality. Clear sky monthly DUVR in each capital city was also modeled. ---------- Results: Mortality from PaCa was 10% higher in southern states than in Queensland, with those in Victoria recording the highest mortality risk (relative risk, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.17). We found a highly significant association between DUVR and PaCa mortality, with an estimated 1.5% decrease in the risk per 10-kJ/m2 increase in yearly DUVR. ---------- Conclusions: These data show an association between latitude, DUVR, and PaCa mortality. Although this study cannot be used to infer causality, it supports the need for further investigations of a possible role of vitamin D in PaCa etiology.