Large Bayesian VARMAs

Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) models have many theoretical properties which should make them popular among empirical macroeconomists. However, they are rarely used in practice due to over-parameterization concerns, difficulties in ensuring identification and computational challenges. With the growing interest in multivariate time series models of high dimension, these problems with VARMAs become even more acute, accounting for the dominance of VARs in this field. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach for inference in VARMAs which surmounts these problems. It jointly ensures identification and parsimony in the context of an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We use this approach in a macroeconomic application involving up to twelve dependent variables. We find our algorithm to work successfully and provide insights beyond those provided by VARs.

Cleries & Cleris: recerca de la vida i dels seus móns

Treball de recerca realitzat per una alumna d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit cientí¬fic del Jovent l'any 2009. Aquest treball pretenia buscar inicialment una connexió entre Pau Claris (president de la Generalitat) i la família de l’autora, Cleris. Després d’unes primeres recerques, però, es va descartar aquesta opció ja que era massa difícil reconstruir el seu arbre geneològic. Finalment, l’objectiu va ser trobar i situar cada avantpassat en el seu marc històric. Per reconstruir l’arbre geneològic es va visitar diferents arxius: la Parròquia de Sant Cugat; l’Arxiu Nacional de Catalunya, on es van consultar llibres d’allistaments, d’impostos, padrons, registres; l’Arxiu Municipal de Sant Cugat, l’Arxiu parroquial de Tàrrega i l’Arxiu comarcal de l’Urgell on es continua la recerca per elaborar l’arbre geneològic. A través d’aquests arxius es van localitzar 6 generacions a Tàrrgea i 4 a Sant Cugat. La recerca queda tallada al 1684 en trobar l’última persona que va néixer a Tàrrega, en Josep Cleries. El seu pare, Carlos Cleries, provenia de Milà on podria continuar la recerca. En el treball també s’estudi el context històric de cada generació. Tàrrega estava contínuament presionada pels exèrcits ja que estava situada en una cruïlla entre dos camins: Lleida i Madrid. Així la recerca mostra que al 1830 la família Cleries canvià de residència per trobar millors condicions de vida. Sant Cugat també estava situada en una cruïlla de camins: Barcelona i Terrassa. Tots van viure de l’agricultura excepte el meu avi que va començar a treballar en una indústria tèxtil.

Sleep 4 less

Treball de recerca realitzat per alumnes d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. Aquest treball es tracta en la creació d’un projecte empresarial, és a dir, d’una planificació estratègica que afecta a tots els àmbits de la empresa al llarg d’un període de temps i que té per objectiu analitzar la viabilitat, examinar els objectius i descobrir els inconvenients del mateix. En concret s’ha projectat és un hostal ‘low cost’. Alhora de comprovar la viabilitat del projecte, s’han hagut de realitzar els tests corresponents per saber si tindria èxit o no. I tots han demostrat un resultat factible, ja que, encara que van sorgir problemes amb l’acceptació d’aquest nou estil, concretament en el fet d’haver de compartir habitació amb altres persones, al poder oferir altres tipus d’habitacions i en el cas de compartir habitació donar molta seguretat, els anàlisis ens han donat uns resultats acceptables. S’han realitzat també quadres financers, préstecs, calculat les despeses d’inici d’empresa i de manteniment, publicitat, despeses de personal, i finalment aquest també han donat un resultat de viabilitat positiu.

Pharmacokinetics of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors.

1. The pharmacokinetics of most ACE inhibitors have been evaluated indirectly by the measurements of plasma ACE activity and circulating levels of angiotensin I and II. 2. Although plasma ACE activity is very useful to study the degree and the time-course of ACE inhibition, one has to be aware that very different results can be obtained depending on the substrate employed in the assay. It is therefore impossible to compare the results of different inhibitors unless an identical methodology is used. 3. A clear dissociation between plasma angiotensin II levels and the antihypertensive effects of ACE inhibitors has been reported. This observation is in part linked to problems with the measurement of angiotensin II. New methods of determination of plasma angiotensin II have now allowed demonstration of the complete disappearance of plasma angiotensin II following acute ACE inhibition. During chronic treatment, however, angiotensin II generation is effectively blocked only during part of the day, but blood pressure remains controlled permanently. 4. Among the different pharmacokinetic characteristics of ACE inhibitors presently available, the route of excretion and to a lesser degree the half-life appear to be the most clinically relevant. However, the importance of the ability of ACE inhibitors to inhibit tissue renin-angiotensin systems remains to be defined.

Un aspecte semàntic dels termes generals : la rigidesa

L'objectiu de la recerca és determinar quina és la noció de rigidesa més adient per als termes generals. Els termes generals són els que, per oposició als termes singulars, es poden aplicar a més d'un individu o exemplar, com per exemple 'tigre', 'aigua', 'bolígraf'. Des de Kripke es considera que alguns termes singulars, com els noms propis, són rígids. Un terme singular és rígid quan designa el mateix individu o objecte en tot món possible. Així 'Sòcrates' és un terme rígid perquè designa el mateix individu, Sòcrates, en tota circumstància contrafàctica. Kripke va proposar que alguns termes generals, com els termes de gènere natural, tals com 'aigua', 'calor' o 'tigre' també són rígids, però no va donar cap formulació precisa de la rigidesa per a termes generals. Des de llavors s'han proposat bàsicament dues concepcions de la rigidesa per a aquests termes: la que els considera designadors rígids i la que els considera aplicadors rígids. L'anàlisi de les dues concepcions pretén determinar quina és la millor comprensió de la rigidesa per a aquests termes, resultant la concepció dels aplicadors rígids indesitjable fonamentalment pels seus compromisos metafísics i allunyats de la semàntica.

À propos de quelques fonctions des expertises judiciaires au pénal

En France, l'expert psychiatre ou psychologue est présenté dans le Code pénal comme un « technicien », disposant de compétences singulières, qui réalise un travail que le juge ne pourrait réaliser lui-même. À partir d'une recherche théorique et empirique, cet article s'intéresse aux relations juge-expert et interroge les fonctions recouvertes par les expertises psychiatriques et psychologiques en phase présentencielle au pénal, au-delà de la mission énoncée dans les textes et dans l'ordonnance de commission d'expertise. Nous sommes partis de l'hypothèse que les fonctions des expertises psychiatriques et psychologiques dépassent le cadre d'un écrit technique et d'une déposition technique en Cour d'assises tel qu'énoncé dans les textes et missions, pour recouvrir des fonctions variées et non explicitées dans le processus judicaire. Concerning certain functions of legal expertise in criminal justice. In France, the expert psychiatrist or psychologist is presented in the Penal Code as a "technician" with singular skills, who performs the work that the judge cannot do himself. Based on theoretical and empirical research, this article focuses on relationship between judge and expert. It also questions the psychiatric and psychological evidence based on psychiatric and psychological evaluations in the penal preparation stage and in the writing and technical evidence presented by the evaluation commission. This is based on the hypothesis that psychiatric and psychological evaluations go beyond the established framework of a technical report or a technical statement made in the criminal court. These texts and assignments refer to various functions, which are not made explicit during the judicial process. A propósito de algunas funciones de los peritajes judiciales en un pleito. En Francia, el experto psiquiatra o psicólogo está presentado en el código penal como un "técnico", que dispone de competencias profesionales particulares, lleva a cabo un trabajo que el juez no sabría realizar por sí mismo. Partiendo de una investigación teórica y empírica, este artículo está centrado en las relaciones juez-experto e interroga sobre las funciones cubiertas por los peritajes psiquiátricos y psicológicos en la fase pre-sentencia en lo penal, más allá de la misión enunciada en los textos y en la ordenanza de la comisión de peritaje. Nuestro punto de partida ha sido la hipótesis que las funciones de los peritajes psiquiátricos y psicológicos van más allá del marco de un escrito técnico y de una deposición técnica en el Tribunal de lo penal tal como queda enunciado en los textos y misiones, para abarcar funciones variadas sin explicitar en el proceso judicial.

Consistency and optimality

Assume that the problem Qo is not solvable in polynomial time. For theories T containing a sufficiently rich part of true arithmetic we characterize T U {ConT} as the minimal extension of T proving for some algorithm that it decides Qo as fast as any algorithm B with the property that T proves that B decides Qo. Here, ConT claims the consistency of T. Moreover, we characterize problems with an optimal algorithm in terms of arithmetical theories.

Allelic Diversity at the Merozoite Surface Protein-1 (MSP-1) Locus in Natural Plasmodium falciparum Populations: a Brief Overview

The merozoite surface protein-1 (MSP-1) locus of Plasmodium falciparum codes for a major asexual blood-stage antigen currently proposed as a major malaria vaccine candidate. The protein, however, shows extensive polymorphism, which may compromise its use in sub-unit vaccines. Here we compare the patterns of allelic diversity at the MSP-1 locus in wild isolates from three epidemiologically distinct malaria-endemic areas: the hypoendemic southwestern Brazilian Amazon (n = 54), the mesoendemic southern Vietnam (n = 238) and the holoendemic northern Tanzania (n = 79). Fragments of the variable blocks 2, 4a, 4b and 6 or 10 of this single-copy gene were amplified by the polymerase chain reaction, and 24 MSP-1 gene types were defined as unique combinations of allelic types in each variable block. Ten different MSP-1 types were identified in Brazil, 23 in Vietnam and 13 in Tanzania. The proportion of genetically mixed infections (isolates with parasites carrying more than one MSP-1 version) ranged from 39% in Brazil to 44% in Vietnam and 60% in Tanzania. The vast majority (90%) of the typed parasite populations from Brazil and Tanzania belonged to the same seven most frequent MSP-1 gene types. In contrast, these seven gene types corresponded to only 61% of the typed parasite populations from Vietnam. Non-random associations were found between allelic types in blocks 4a and 6 among Vietnamese isolates, the same pattern being observed in independent studies performed in 1994, 1995 and 1996. These results suggest that MSP-1 is under selective pressure in the local parasite population. Nevertheless, the finding that similar MSP-1 type frequencies were found in 1994 and 1996 argues against the prominence of short-term frequency-dependent immune selection of MSP-1 polymorphisms. Non-random associations between MSP-1 allelic types, however, were not detected among isolates from Brazil and Tanzania. A preliminary analysis of the distribution of MSP-1 gene types per host among isolates from Tanzania, but not among those from Brazil and Vietnam, shows significant deviation from that expected under the null hypothesis of independent distribution of parasites carrying different gene types in the human hosts. Some epidemiological consequences of these findings are discussed

Expansion of intraocular gas bubbles due to altitude: do meteorological factors play a role?

BACKGROUND: Intraocular gas bubbles expand as patients move up to higher altitude. This may cause an acute intraocular pressure (IOP) rise with associated vascular obstructions and visual loss. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two pseudophakic patients underwent a pars plana vitrectomy and 23% SF6 gas tamponade for a pseudophakic retinal detachment. During the immediate post-operative phase, the patients travelled daily up to their domicile, which was situated approximately 600 m higher than the level where they had been operated on. These travels were always without any pain or visual loss. However 1 week after surgery both patients developed severe ocular pain, and one patient had complete temporary loss of vision after ascending to altitude levels, which had previously presented no problem. Both episodes occurred in parallel with a change in barometric pressure. RESULTS: Treatment with acetazolamide reduced the increased IOP to normal levels, and visual acuity recovered. CONCLUSIONS: Although the post-operative size of an intraocular gas bubble decreases progressively over time, problems with bubble expansion may still occur even at a late stage if meteorological factors, that may increase the bubble size, change.

Speculations on the origin and evolution of the genus Leishmania

Recently two hypotheses have been proposed for the evolution of Leishmania involving respectively a Neotropical or Paleartic origin for the species. Here an alternative proposal on the phylogeny of Leishmania based on the major divisions within the genus is presented. In this hypothesis a Neotropic origin is retained for L. (Viannia) and Paraleishmania, a recently desribed section within the genus Leishmania, while an African origin is proposed for L. (Leishmania) and possibly Sauroleishmania. The current distribution of Leishmania in the Neotropics is explained as the product of multiple introductions of Leishmania parasites into the New World. Problems with organismal identity in Sauroleishmania and the use of molecular sequence data in inferring phylogenies are also discussed.

The yellow fever 17D vaccine virus as a vector for the expression of foreign proteins: development of new live flavivirus vaccines

The Flaviviridae is a family of about 70 mostly arthropod-borne viruses many of which are major public health problems with members being present in most continents. Among the most important are yellow fever (YF), dengue with its four serotypes and Japanese encephalitis virus. A live attenuated virus is used as a cost effective, safe and efficacious vaccine against YF but no other live flavivirus vaccines have been licensed. The rise of recombinant DNA technology and its application to study flavivirus genome structure and expression has opened new possibilities for flavivirus vaccine development. One new approach is the use of cDNAs encopassing the whole viral genome to generate infectious RNA after in vitro transcription. This methodology allows the genetic mapping of specific viral functions and the design of viral mutants with considerable potential as new live attenuated viruses. The use of infectious cDNA as a carrier for heterologous antigens is gaining importance as chimeric viruses are shown to be viable, immunogenic and less virulent as compared to the parental viruses. The use of DNA to overcome mutation rates intrinsic of RNA virus populations in conjunction with vaccine production in cell culture should improve the reliability and lower the cost for production of live attenuated vaccines. The YF virus despite a long period ignored by researchers probably due to the effectiveness of the vaccine has made a come back, both in nature as human populations grow and reach endemic areas as well as in the laboratory being a suitable model to understand the biology of flaviviruses in general and providing new alternatives for vaccine development through the use of the 17D vaccine strain.

Information Mobility: Information Dissemination in Mobile Networks

En el nostre projecte, considerem un escenari urbà o interurbà on persones amb dispositius mòbils (smartphones) o vehicles equipats amb interfícies de comunicació, estan interessats en compartir fitxers entre ells o descarregar-los al creuar Punts d’Accés (APs) propers a la carretera. Estudiem la possibilitat d’utilizar la cooperació en les trobades casuals entre nodes per augmentar la velocitat de descàrrega global. Amb aquest objectiu, plantejem algoritmes per a la selecció de quins paquets, per a quins destins i quins transportistes s’escullen en cada moment. Mitjançant extenses simulacions, mostrem com les cooperacions carry&forward dels nodes augmenten significativament la velocitat de descàrrega dels usuaris, i com aquest resultat es manté per a diversos patrons de mobilitat, col•locacions d'AP i càrregues de la xarxa. Per altra banda, aparells com els smartphones, on la targeta de WiFi està encesa contínuament, consumeixen l'energia de la bateria en poques hores. En molts escenaris, una targeta WiFi sempre activa és poc útil, perque sovint no hi ha necessitat de transmissió o recepció. Aquest fet es veu agreujat en les Delay Tolerant Networks (DTN), on els nodes intercanvien dades quan es creuen i en tenen l’oportunitat. Les tècniques de gestió de l’estalvi d’energia permeten extendre la duració de les bateries. El nostre projecte analitza els avantatges i inconvenients que apareixen quan els nodes apaguen períodicament la seva targeta wireless per a estalviar energia en escenaris DTN. Els nostres resultats mostren les condicions en que un node pot desconnectar la bateria sense afectar la probabilitat de contacte amb altres nodes, i les condicions en que aquesta disminueix. Per exemple, es demostra que la vida del node pot ser duplicada mantenint la probabilitat de contacte a 1. I que aquesta disminueix ràpidament en intentar augmentar més la vida útil.

El inmigrante marroquí y la institución sanitaria

Anàlisi dels problemes de comunicació amb el col·lectiu marroquí durant l'ingrès a l'hospital de Sant Pau de Barcelona.

"I'll look it up on the Web first": barriers and overcoming barriers to consult for sexual dysfunction among young men.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: Our aim was to identify the barriers young men face to consult a health professional when they encounter sexual dysfunctions and where they turn to, if so, for answers. METHODS: We conducted an exploratory qualitative research including 12 young men aged 16-20 years old seen in two focus groups. Discussions were triggered through vignettes about sexual dysfunction. RESULTS: Young men preferred not to talk about sexual dysfunction problems with anyone and to solve them alone as it is considered an intimate and embarrassing subject which can negatively impact their masculinity. Confidentiality appeared to be the most important criterion in disclosing an intimate subject to a health professional. Participants raised the problem of males' accessibility to services and lack of reason to consult. Two criteria to address the problem were if it was long-lasting or considered as physical. The Internet was unanimously considered as an initial solution to solve a problem, which could guide them to a face-to-face consultation if necessary. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that Internet-based tools should be developed to become an easy access door to sexual health services for young men. Wherever they consult and for whatever problem, sexual health must be on the agenda.

The association between drinking motives and alcohol-related consequences - room for biases and measurement issues?

Aims  To investigate whether the predominant finding of generalized positive associations between self-rated motives for drinking alcohol and negative consequences of drinking alcohol are influenced by (i) using raw scores of motives that may weight inter-individual response behaviours too strongly, and (ii) predictor-criterion contamination by using consequence items where respondents attribute alcohol use as the cause. Design  Cross-sectional study within the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and other Drugs (ESPAD). Setting  School classes. Participants  Students, aged 13-16 (n = 5633). Measurements  Raw, rank and mean-variance standardized scores of the Drinking Motives Questionnaire-Revised (DMQ-R); four consequences: serious problems with friends, sexual intercourse regretted the next day, physical fights and troubles with the police, each itemized with attribution ('because of your alcohol use') and without. Findings  As found previously in the literature, raw scores for all drinking motives had positive associations with negative consequences of drinking, while transformed (rank or Z) scores showed a more specific pattern: external reinforcing motives (social, conformity) had negative and internal reinforcing motives (enhancement, coping) had non-significant or positive associations with negative consequences. Attributed consequences showed stronger associations with motives than non-attributed ones. Conclusion  Standard scoring of the Drinking Motives Questionnaire (Revised) fails to capture motives in a way that permits specific associations with different negative consequences to be identified, whereas use of rank or Z-scores does permit this. Use of attributed consequences overestimates the association with drinking motives.