Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

An evaluation of manual and mechanical methods to identify Candida spp. from human and animal sources

To compare two yeast identification methods, i. e, the manual and the VITEK mechanical methods, 62 clinical samples from hemocultures and animal sources were analyzed. After identification as Candida yeasts by the VITEK method, the strains were recharacterized using manual assimilation methods and sugar fermentation tests. Our findings reveal 58% concurrent identification between the two methods for animal strains, and 51% for human hemoculture strains.

Probabilistic models for mechanical properties of prestressing strands

This study focus on the probabilistic modelling of mechanical properties of prestressing strands based on data collected from tensile tests carried out in Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), Portugal, for certification purposes, and covers a period of about 9 years of production. The strands studied were produced by six manufacturers from four countries, namely Portugal, Spain, Italy and Thailand. Variability of the most important mechanicalproperties is examined and the results are compared with the recommendations of the ProbabilisticModel Code, as well as the Eurocodes and earlier studies. The obtained results show a very low variability which, of course, benefits structural safety. Based on those results, probabilistic modelsfor the most important mechanical properties of prestressing strands are proposed.

The effect of adhesive thickness on the mechanical behavior of a structural polyurethane adhesive

One parameter that influences the adhesively bonded joints performance is the adhesive layer thickness. Hence, its effect has to be investigated experimentally and should be taken into consideration in the design of adhesive joints. Most of the results from literature are for typical structural epoxy adhesives which are generally formulated to perform in thin sections. However, polyurethane adhesives are designed to perform in thicker sections and might have a different behavior as a function of adhesive thickness. In this study, the effect of adhesive thickness on the mechanical behavior of a structural polyurethane adhesive was investigated. The mode I fracture toughness of the adhesive was measured using double-cantilever beam (DCB) tests with various thicknesses of the adhesive layer ranging from 0.2 to 2 mm. In addition, single lap joints (SLJs) were fabricated and tested to assess the influence of adhesive thickness on the lap-shear strength of the adhesive. An increasing fracture toughness with increasing adhesive thickness was found. The lap-shear strength decreases as the adhesive layer gets thicker, but in contrast to joints with brittle adhesives the decrease trend was less pronounced.

Adhesive selection for single lap bonded joints: Experimentation and advanced techniques for strength prediction

The integrity of multi-component structures is usually determined by their unions. Adhesive-bonding is often used over traditional methods because of the reduction of stress concentrations, reduced weight penalty, and easy manufacturing. Commercial adhesives range from strong and brittle (e.g., Araldite® AV138) to less strong and ductile (e.g., Araldite® 2015). A new family of polyurethane adhesives combines high strength and ductility (e.g., Sikaforce® 7888). In this work, the performance of the three above-mentioned adhesives was tested in single lap joints with varying values of overlap length (LO). The experimental work carried out is accompanied by a detailed numerical analysis by finite elements, either based on cohesive zone models (CZM) or the extended finite element method (XFEM). This procedure enabled detailing the performance of these predictive techniques applied to bonded joints. Moreover, it was possible to evaluate which family of adhesives is more suited for each joint geometry. CZM revealed to be highly accurate, except for largely ductile adhesives, although this could be circumvented with a different cohesive law. XFEM is not the most suited technique for mixed-mode damage growth, but a rough prediction was achieved.

Adhesive thickness effects of a ductile adhesive by optical measurement techniques

Adhesive bonding is an excellent alternative to traditional joining techniques such as welding, mechanical fastening or riveting. However, there are many factors that have to be accounted for during joint design to accurately predict the joint strength. One of these is the adhesive layer thickness (tA). Most of the results are for epoxy structural adhesives, tailored to perform best with small values of tA, and these show that the lap joint strength decreases with increase of tA (the optimum joint strength is usually obtained with tA values between 0.1 and 0.2 mm). Recently, polyurethane adhesives were made available in the market, designed to perform with larger tA values, and whose fracture behaviour is still not studied. In this work, the effect of tA on the tensile fracture toughness (View the MathML source) of a bonded joint is studied, considering a novel high strength and ductile polyurethane adhesive for the automotive industry. This work consists on the fracture characterization of the bond by a conventional and the J-integral techniques, which accurately account for root rotation effects. An optical measurement method is used for the evaluation of crack tip opening (δn) and adherends rotation at the crack tip (θo) during the test, supported by a Matlab® sub-routine for the automated extraction of these parameters. As output of this work, fracture data is provided in traction for the selected adhesive, enabling the subsequent strength prediction of bonded joints.

Strength improvement of adhesively-bonded scarf repairs in aluminium structures with external reinforcements

Adhesively bonded techniques are an attractive option to repair aluminium structures, compared to more traditional methods. Actually, as a result of the improvement in the mechanical characteristics of adhesives, adhesive bonding has progressively replaced the traditional joining methods. There are several bonded repair configurations, as single-strap, double-strap and scarf. Compared with strap repairs, scarf repairs have the advantages of a higher efficiency and the absence of aerodynamic disturbance. The higher efficiency is caused by the elimination of the significant joint eccentricities of strap repairs. Moreover, stress distributions along the bond length are more uniform, due to tapering of the scarf edges. The main disadvantages of this technique are the difficult machining of the surfaces, associated costs and requirement of specialised labour. This work reports on an experimental and numerical study of the tensile behaviour of two-dimensional (2D) scarf repairs of aluminium structures bonded with the ductile epoxy adhesive Araldite® 2015. The numerical analysis, by Finite Elements (FE), was performed in Abaqus® and used cohesive zone models (CZM) for the simulation of damage onset and growth in the adhesive layer, thus enabling the strength prediction of the repairs. A parametric study was performed on the scarf angle (α) and different configurations of external reinforcement (applied on one or two sides of the repair, and also different reinforcement lengths). The obtained results allowed the establishment of design guidelines for repairing, showing that the use of external reinforcements enables increasing α for equal strength recovery, which makes the repair procedure easier. The numerical technique was accurate in predicting the repairs’ strength, enabling its use for design and optimisation purposes.

Mechanical properties of chemically modified portuguese pinewood

To turn wood into a construction material with enhanced properties, many methods of chemical modification have been developed in the last few decades. In this work, mechanical properties of pine wood were chemically modified, compared and evaluated. Maritime pine wood (Pinus pinaster) was modified with four chemical processes: 1,3-dimethylol-4,5- dihydroxyethyleneurea, N-methylol melamine formaldehyde, tetra-alkoxysilane and wax. The following mechanical properties were assessed experimentally: Modulus of elasticity measured statically, stiffness stabilization efficiency in different climates (30 and 87% of relative humidity), modulus of rupture, work maximum load, impact bending strength, compression, tensile and shear strength at indoor conditions (65% of relative humidity). In both types of active principle of modification, cell wall or lumen fill, no significant changes on the bending stiffness (modulus of elasticity) were found. In the remaining properties analysed significant changes in the modified wood-material took place compared to unmodified wood control: - Cell wall modification was the most effective method to achieve high stiffness stabilization efficiency (up to 60%) and also increased compression strength (up to 230%). However, modulus of rupture, tensile, shear and the impact bending strength were reduced by both resins, but in a varying extent, where the N-methylol melamine formaldehyde endured less reduction than 1,3-dimethylol-4,5-dihydroxyethyleneurea resin. In the latter, reduction up to 60% can take place. - In the lumen fill modification: tetra-alkoxysilane has no effect in the mechanical properties. Although, a slight increase in shear strength parallel to the grain was found. Wax specimens have shown a slight increase in bending strength, compression, tensile and shear strength as well as in the absorption energy capacity.

Stochastic modelling of the reservoir lithological and petrophysical attributes. A case study of the Middle East carbonate reservoir

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Geológica (Georrecursos)

Correlation between the mechanical cycling behavior and microstructure in laser welded joints using NiTi memory shape alloys

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia de Materiais

Caraterização das propriedades mecânicas de um adesivo estrutural de alta ductilidade

A tecnologia de ligação por adesivos estruturais tem vindo a ser utilizada ao longo de várias décadas, permitindo solucionar diversos problemas associados a técnicas chamadas "tradicionais" de ligação, como a soldadura, a rebitagem ou a ligação aparafusada. Esta é uma alternativa viável para substituir as ligações mecânicas, devido a diversos fatores como o menor peso estrutural, menor custo de fabricação e capacidade de união de diferentes materiais. O crescente recurso a materiais compósitos em diversas indústrias, nomeadamente a aeronáutica e naval, levaram ao consequente aumento da aplicação de ligações adesivas, por serem indicadas como forma de união destes materiais, onde é de enaltecer a sua elevada resistência à fadiga. Uma junta adesiva está maioritariamente sujeita a esforços de corte e arrancamento e portanto o conhecimento dos módulos de elasticidade à tração (E) ou corte (G) do adesivo, e ainda as resistências máximas à tração e ao corte, não é suficiente quando se pretende prever o comportamento da mesma. Na verdade, torna-se necessário abranger na análise a plastificação progressiva verificada nas juntas adesivas antes da rotura, sendo necessário o conhecimento de parâmetros tais como a taxa crítica de libertação de energia de deformação à tração (GIc) e corte (GIIc). Este trabalho pretende estudar um adesivo estrutural recentemente lançado no mercado, carecendo portanto da sua caracterização, para facilitar a previsão da resistência de estruturas adesivas ligadas com o mesmo. São 4 os ensaios a realizar: ensaios à tração de provetes em bruto, ensaios ao corte com a geometria Thick Adherend Shear Test (TAST), ensaios Double-Cantilever Beam (DCB) e ensaios End-Notched Flexure (ENF). Com a realização dos ensaios referidos, serão determinadas as propriedades mecânicas e de fratura à tração e ao corte, e serão fornecidos os parâmetros para a previsão da resistência de juntas adesivas com este adesivo por uma variedade de métodos, desde métodos analíticos mais expeditos até aos métodos numéricos mais avançados existentes atualmente. Os resultados foram de encontro aos disponibilizados pelo fabricante, sempre que estes se encontravam disponíveis, obtendo-se discrepâncias bastante reduzidas nos diversos parâmetros determinados.

Sepsis Mortality Prediction Based on Predisposition, Infection and Response

OBJECTIVE: To empirically test, based on a large multicenter, multinational database, whether a modified PIRO (predisposition, insult, response, and organ dysfunction) concept could be applied to predict mortality in patients with infection and sepsis. DESIGN: Substudy of a multicenter multinational cohort study (SAPS 3). PATIENTS: A total of 2,628 patients with signs of infection or sepsis who stayed in the ICU for >48 h. Three boxes of variables were defined, according to the PIRO concept. Box 1 (Predisposition) contained information about the patient's condition before ICU admission. Box 2 (Injury) contained information about the infection at ICU admission. Box 3 (Response) was defined as the response to the infection, expressed as a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score after 48 h. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Most of the infections were community acquired (59.6%); 32.5% were hospital acquired. The median age of the patients was 65 (50-75) years, and 41.1% were female. About 22% (n=576) of the patients presented with infection only, 36.3% (n=953) with signs of sepsis, 23.6% (n=619) with severe sepsis, and 18.3% (n=480) with septic shock. Hospital mortality was 40.6% overall, greater in those with septic shock (52.5%) than in those with infection (34.7%). Several factors related to predisposition, infection and response were associated with hospital mortality. CONCLUSION: The proposed three-level system, by using objectively defined criteria for risk of mortality in sepsis, could be used by physicians to stratify patients at ICU admission or shortly thereafter, contributing to a better selection of management according to the risk of death.

Carotid Intima-Media Thickness and Carotid Plaques Improves Prediction of Obstructive Angiographic Coronary Artery Disease in Women

Does carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), a surrogate marker of cardiovascular events, have predictive incremental value over established risk factors for stable coronary artery disease (CAD)? Prospective study of 300 patients, with suspected stable CAD, admitted for an elective coronary angiography and carotid ultrasound. The CAD patients had a higher cIMT, which showed a modest predictive accuracy for CAD (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.638, 95% confidence interval 0.576-0.701, P < .001). The cIMT was an independent predictor of CAD, together with age, gender, and diabetes. C-statistic for CAD prediction by traditional risk factors was not significantly different from a model that included cIMT, carotid plaque presence, or both. However, in women, it was significantly increased by the addition of cIMT or carotid plaque presence. Although cIMT cannot be used as a sole indicator of CAD, it should be considered in the panel of investigations that is requested, particularly in women who are candidates for coronary angiography.

Análise do processo de desenvolvimento de novos produtos na indústria

No âmbito da unidade curricular Dissertação/Projeto do 2º ano do Mestrado em Engenharia mecânica – Ramo Gestão Industrial do Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto, o presente trabalho enquadra-se na análise do processo de desenvolvimento de novos produtos na indústria, como suporte à gestão de projetos. No seguimento da necessidade que as empresas têm cada vez mais presente em investirem na melhoria do processo de desenvolvimento de novos produtos, isso conduz a uma garantia de cumprimento de prazos e qualidade, à redução de custos, aumento de vendas, aumento de receitas, satisfação de clientes, entre outros benefícios. O trabalho foi desenvolvido, na empresa Doureca Produtos Plásticos, Lda, no Departamento de Engenharia. À medida que o projeto de melhoria avançou, foi cativante observar como os resultados obtidos contribuíam para a alteração dos paradigmas de trabalho da empresa e o impacto na melhoria continua, em função do caminho traçado da busca da máxima eficiência e eficácia. As ferramentas de melhoria são o suporte ideal, que ajudam a atingir a meta da sustentabilidade dos negócios, mas o maior obstáculo, continua a ser o fator humano. A implementação destes sistemas de melhoria requer uma maior abertura para a utilização das respetivas ferramentas, e uma mobilização dos diferentes intervenientes com vista à obtenção de resultados. Após uma avaliação da situação inicial, foram identificados pontos a melhorar na organização, de seguida foi definida a visão do que deveria ser implementado tendo em conta a estratégia da empresa, e posteriormente executado um plano de implementação das melhorias. No decurso do trabalho foram implementadas novas ferramentas de auxílio para o desenvolvimento de novos produtos como suporte à gestão de projetos. Estas ferramentas são apoiadas na filosofia LEAN, de forma a eliminar desperdícios e criar valor através da melhor utilização dos recursos.

Estudo numérico da adequação de diferentes tipos de leis coesivas na previsão da resistência de juntas adesivas por Modelos de Dano Coesivo

O uso de ligações adesivas aumentou significativamente nos últimos anos e é hoje em dia uma técnica de ligação dominante na indústria aeronáutica e automóvel. As ligações adesivas visam substituir os métodos tradicionais de fixação mecânicos na união de estruturas. A melhoria ao longo dos anos de vários modelos de previsão de dano, nomeadamente através do Método de Elementos Finitos (MEF), tem ajudado ao desenvolvimento desta técnica de ligação. Os Modelos de Dano coesivo (MDC), usados em conjunto com MEF, são uma ferramenta viável para a previsão de resistência de juntas adesivas. Os MDC combinam critérios da resistência dos materiais para a iniciação do dano e conceitos da mecânica da fratura para a propagação da fenda. Existem diversas formas de leis coesivas possíveis de aplicar em simulações por MDC, em função do comportamento expectável dos materiais que estão a ser simulados. Neste trabalho, estudou-se numericamente o efeito de diversas formas de leis coesivas na previsão no comportamento de juntas adesivas, nomeadamente nas curvas forçadeslocamento (P-) de ensaios Double-Cantilever Beam para caracterização à tração e ensaios End-Notched Flexure para caraterização ao corte. Também se estudou a influência dos parâmetros coesivos à tração e corte nas curvas P- dos referidos ensaios. Para o Araldite®AV138 à tração e ao corte, a lei triangular é a que melhor prevê o comportamento do adesivo. Para a previsão da resistência de ambos os adesivos Araldite® 2015 e SikaForce® 7752, a lei trapezoidal é a que melhor se adequa, confirmando assim que esta lei é a que melhor caracteriza o comportamento de dano de adesivos tipicamente dúcteis. O estudo dos parâmetros revelou influência distinta na previsão do comportamento das juntas, embora com bastantes semelhanças entre os diferentes tipos de adesivos.