Explaining young mortality

Stochastic modeling of mortality rates focuses on fitting linear models to logarithmically adjusted mortality data from the middle or late ages. Whilst this modeling enables insurers to project mortality rates and hence price mortality products it does not provide good fit for younger aged mortality. Mortality rates below the early 20's are important to model as they give an insight into estimates of the cohort effect for more recent years of birth. It is also important given the cumulative nature of life expectancy to be able to forecast mortality improvements at all ages. When we attempt to fit existing models to a wider age range, 5-89, rather than 20-89 or 50-89, their weaknesses are revealed as the results are not satisfactory. The linear innovations in existing models are not flexible enough to capture the non-linear profile of mortality rates that we see at the lower ages. In this paper we modify an existing 4 factor model of mortality to enable better fitting to a wider age range, and using data from seven developed countries our empirical results show that the proposed model has a better fit to the actual data, is robust, and has good forecasting ability.

Shell scarring in Calliostoma zizyphinum (Prosobranch: Trochidae) from Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland.

Pink and white shells of Calliostoma zizyphinum show both undamaged and damaged scars. White shelled individuals predominate in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland where Calliostoma densities and scarring levels are high. No white shells were found intertidally, outside the entrance channel to the Lough. Significant differences occur in the size of Calliostoma shells between sampling sites but not between different colour morphs at each site. However in pooled samples, pink individuals are significantly larger than white individuals. When sites and morphs are considered separately, pink Calliostoma density is negatively correlated with water movement. At sites where pink Calliostoma occur, the percentage of pink shelled individuals is negatively correlated with total Calliostoma density. Damaged and undamaged scarring values per unit area of shell, show highly significant differences between sites and damaged scars are significantly higher in white individuals. Undamaged scars are not correlated with any of the environmental parameters recorded, but are positively correlated with damaged scars suggesting a common causative factor. The level of damaged scarring is positively correlated with crab/total Calliostoma ratio at all sites and where each colour morph was considered separately. Multiple regression analyses reveal that crab/Calliostoma ratios account for 42% of the between site variation in damaged scars. Significantly higher levels of damaged scars are found at sites with high crab densities and significantly larger individuals are found at sites where crab densities are intermediate in value. The largest and most highly scarred individuals occur at sites with most coarse substrata where Calliostoma are present in their lowest densities. The higher scarring levels and smaller size of white individuals reflect either higher mortality or reduced growth in white shelled Calliostoma.

Referral to an Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Center and Mortality Among Patients With Severe 2009 Influenza A(H1N1)

Context Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) can support gas exchange in patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), but its role has remained controversial. ECMO was used to treat patients with ARDS during the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic.

Burnout as a predictor of all-cause mortality among industrial employees: A 10-year prospective register-linkage study

Objective: Burnout, a psychological consequence of prolonged work stress, has been shown to coexist with physical and mental disorders. The aim of this study was to investigate whether burnout is related to all-cause mortality among employees. Methods: In 1996, of 15,466 Finnish forest industry employees, 9705 participated in the 'Still Working' study and 8371 were subsequently identified from the National Population Register. Those who had been treated in a hospital for the most common causes of death prior to the assessment of burnout were excluded on the basis of the Hospital Discharge Register, resulting in a final study population of 7396 people. Burnout was measured using the Maslach Burnout Inventory-General Survey. Dates of death from 1996 to 2006 were extracted from the National Mortality Register. Mortality was predicted with Cox hazard regression models, controlling for baseline sociodemographic factors and register-based health status according to entitled medical reimbursement and prescribed medication for mental health problems, cardiac risk factors, and pain problems. Results: During the 10-year 10-month follow-up, a total of 199 employees had died. The risk of mortality per one-unit increase in burnout was 35% higher (95% CI 1.07-1.71) for total score and 26% higher (0.99-1.60) for exhaustion, 29% higher for cynicism (1.03-1.62), and 22% higher for diminished professional efficacy (0.96-1.55) in participants who had been under 45 at baseline. After adjustments, only the associations regarding burnout and exhaustion were statistically significant. Burnout was not related to mortality among the older employees. Conclusion: Burnout, especially work-related exhaustion, may be a risk for overall survival. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Engagement in cultural activities and cause-specific mortality: Prospective cohort study

Objective. To determine the relation between engagement in cultural activities and main causes of mortality among full-time employees.