How can soil monitoring networks be used to improve predictions of organic carbon pool dynamics and CO2 fluxes in agricultural soils?

Abstract As regional and continental carbon balances of terrestrial ecosystems become available, it becomes clear that the soils are the largest source of uncertainty. Repeated inventories of soil organic carbon (SOC) organized in soil monitoring networks (SMN) are being implemented in a number of countries. This paper reviews the concepts and design of SMNs in ten countries, and discusses the contribution of such networks to reducing the uncertainty of soil carbon balances. Some SMNs are designed to estimate country-specific land use or management effects on SOC stocks, while others collect soil carbon and ancillary data to provide a nationally consistent assessment of soil carbon condition across the major land-use/soil type combinations. The former use a single sampling campaign of paired sites, while for the latter both systematic (usually grid based) and stratified repeated sampling campaigns (5–10 years interval) are used with densities of one site per 10–1,040 km². For paired sites, multiple samples at each site are taken in order to allow statistical analysis, while for the single sites, composite samples are taken. In both cases, fixed depth increments together with samples for bulk density and stone content are recommended. Samples should be archived to allow for re-measurement purposes using updated techniques. Information on land management, and where possible, land use history should be systematically recorded for each site. A case study of the agricultural frontier in Brazil is presented in which land use effect factors are calculated in order to quantify the CO2 fluxes from national land use/management conversion matrices. Process-based SOC models can be run for the individual points of the SMN, provided detailed land management records are available. These studies are still rare, as most SMNs have been implemented recently or are in progress. Examples from the USA and Belgium show that uncertainties in SOC change range from 1.6–6.5 Mg C ha−1 for the prediction of SOC stock changes on individual sites to 11.72 Mg C ha−1 or 34% of the median SOC change for soil/land use/climate units. For national SOC monitoring, stratified sampling sites appears to be the most straightforward attribution of SOC values to units with similar soil/land use/climate conditions (i.e. a spatially implicit upscaling approach). Keywords Soil monitoring networks - Soil organic carbon - Modeling - Sampling design

Phylogeographic reconstruction of a bacterial species with high levels of lateral gene transfer

Background Phylogeographic reconstruction of some bacterial populations is hindered by low diversity coupled with high levels of lateral gene transfer. A comparison of recombination levels and diversity at seven housekeeping genes for eleven bacterial species, most of which are commonly cited as having high levels of lateral gene transfer shows that the relative contributions of homologous recombination versus mutation for Burkholderia pseudomallei is over two times higher than for Streptococcus pneumoniae and is thus the highest value yet reported in bacteria. Despite the potential for homologous recombination to increase diversity, B. pseudomallei exhibits a relative lack of diversity at these loci. In these situations, whole genome genotyping of orthologous shared single nucleotide polymorphism loci, discovered using next generation sequencing technologies, can provide very large data sets capable of estimating core phylogenetic relationships. We compared and searched 43 whole genome sequences of B. pseudomallei and its closest relatives for single nucleotide polymorphisms in orthologous shared regions to use in phylogenetic reconstruction. Results Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of >14,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms yielded completely resolved trees for these 43 strains with high levels of statistical support. These results enable a better understanding of a separate analysis of population differentiation among >1,700 B. pseudomallei isolates as defined by sequence data from seven housekeeping genes. We analyzed this larger data set for population structure and allele sharing that can be attributed to lateral gene transfer. Our results suggest that despite an almost panmictic population, we can detect two distinct populations of B. pseudomallei that conform to biogeographic patterns found in many plant and animal species. That is, separation along Wallace's Line, a biogeographic boundary between Southeast Asia and Australia. Conclusion We describe an Australian origin for B. pseudomallei, characterized by a single introduction event into Southeast Asia during a recent glacial period, and variable levels of lateral gene transfer within populations. These patterns provide insights into mechanisms of genetic diversification in B. pseudomallei and its closest relatives, and provide a framework for integrating the traditionally separate fields of population genetics and phylogenetics for other bacterial species with high levels of lateral gene transfer.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

The accidental mentor : Australian rural nurses developing supportive relationships in the workplace

improved rural nurse retention as an outcome of recognising and developing such supportive relationships in the workplace. Strategies include: performance review and development processes that account for all forms of supportive relationships conducted in the workplace; recognising the importance of developing supportive relationships and allocating time for these; and continuing professional development designed to meet local needs for developing a culture of support in the workplace.

An examination of the relationships between lifestyle factors and mental health among Australian midlife and older women

Background It is well known that lifestyle factors including overweight/obesity, physical inactivity, smoking and alcohol use are largely related with morbidity and mortality of chronic diseases including diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. The effect of lifestyle factors on people’s mental health who have a chronic disease is less defined in the research. The World Health Organisation has defined health as “a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being”. It is important, therefore to develop an understanding of the relationships between lifestyle and mental health as this may have implications for maximising the efficacy of health promotion in people with chronic diseases. Objectives The overall aim of the research was to examine the relationships between lifestyle factors and mental health among Australian midlife and older women. Methodology The current research measured four lifestyle factors including weight status, physical activity, smoking and alcohol use. Three interconnecting studies were undertaken to develop a comprehensive understanding of the relationships between lifestyle factors and mental health. Study 1 investigated the longitudinal effect of lifestyle factors on mental health by using midlife and older women randomly selected from the community. Study 2 adopted a cross-sectional design, and compared the effect of lifestyle factors on mental health between midlife and older women with and without diabetes. Study 3 examined the mediating effect of self-efficacy in the relationships between lifestyle factors and mental health among midlife and older women with diabetes. A questionnaire survey was chosen as the means to gather information, and multiple linear regression analysis was conducted as the primary statistical approach. Results The research showed that the four lifestyle factors including weight status, physical activity, smoking and alcohol use did impact on mental health among Australian midlife and older women. First, women with a higher BMI had lower levels of mental health than women with normal weight, but as women age, the mental health of women who were overweight and obese becomes better than that of women with normal weight. Second, women who were physically active had higher levels of mental health than those who were not. Third, smoking adversely impacted on women’s mental health. Finally, those who were past-drinkers had less anxiety symptoms than women who were non-drinkers as they age. Women with diabetes appeared to have lower levels of mental health compared to women without. However, the disparities of mental health between two groups were confounded by low levels of physical activity and co-morbidities. This finding underlines the effect of physical activity on women’s mental health, and highlights the potential of reducing the gap of mental health by promoting physical activity. In addition, self-efficacy was shown to be the mediator of the relationships between BMI, physical activity and depression, suggesting that enhancing people’s self-efficacy may be useful for mental health improvement. Conclusions In conclusion, Australian midlife and older women who live with a healthier lifestyle have higher levels of mental health. It is suggested that strategies aiming to improve people’s mental health may be more effective if they focus on enhancing people’s self-efficacy levels. This study has implications to both health education and policy development. It indicates that health professionals may need to consider clients’ mental health as an integrated part of lifestyle changing process. Furthermore, given that lifestyle factors impact on both physical and mental health, lifestyle modification should continue to be the focus of policy development.

Relationships between rainfall intensity, duration and suspended particle washoff from an urban road surface

A basic understanding of the relationships between rainfall intensity, duration of rainfall and the amount of suspended particles in stormwater runoff generated from road surfaces has been gained mainly from past washoff experiments using rainfall simulators. Simulated rainfall was generally applied at constant intensities, whereas rainfall temporal patterns during actual storms are typically highly variable. This paper discusses a rationale for the application of the constant-intensity washoff concepts to actual storm event runoff. The rationale is tested using suspended particle load data collected at a road site located in Toowoomba, Australia. Agreement between the washoff concepts and measured data is most consistent for intermediate-duration storms (duration <5 h and >1 h). Particle loads resulting from these storm events increase linearly with average rainfall intensity. Above a threshold intensity, there is evidence to suggest a constant or plateau particle load is reached. The inclusion of a peak discharge factor (maximum 6 min rainfall intensity) enhances the ability to predict particle loads.

The impact of nonlinear exposure risk relationships on seasonal time series data: modelling danish neonatal birth anthropometric data

Background Birth weight and length have seasonal fluctuations. Previous analyses of birth weight by latitude effects identified seemingly contradictory results, showing both 6 and 12 monthly periodicities in weight. The aims of this paper are twofold: (a) to explore seasonal patterns in a large, Danish Medical Birth Register, and (b) to explore models based on seasonal exposures and a non-linear exposure-risk relationship. Methods Birth weight and birth lengths on over 1.5 million Danish singleton, live births were examined for seasonality. We modelled seasonal patterns based on linear, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships. We then added an extra layer of complexity by modelling weighted population-based exposure patterns. Results The Danish data showed clear seasonal fluctuations for both birth weight and birth length. A bimodal model best fits the data, however the amplitude of the 6 and 12 month peaks changed over time. In the modelling exercises, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships generate time series with both 6 and 12 month periodicities. Changing the weightings of the population exposure risks result in unexpected properties. A J-shaped exposure-risk relationship with a diminishing population exposure over time fitted the observed seasonal pattern in the Danish birth weight data. Conclusion In keeping with many other studies, Danish birth anthropometric data show complex and shifting seasonal patterns. We speculate that annual periodicities with non-linear exposure-risk models may underlie these findings. Understanding the nature of seasonal fluctuations can help generate candidate exposures.