Oil price shocks and policy implications the emergence of U.S. tight oil production: a case study

How have shocks to supply and demand affected global oil prices; and what are key policy implications following the resurgence of oil production in the United States? Highlights: − The recent collapse in global oil prices was dominated by oversupply. − The future of tight oil in the United States is vulnerable to obstacles beyond oil prices. − Opinions on tight oil from the Top 25 think tank organizations are considered. Global oil prices have fallen more than fifty percent since mid-2014. While price corrections in the global oil markets resulted from multiple factors over the past twelve months, surging tight oil production from the United States was a key driver. Tight oil is considered an unconventional or transitional oil source due to its location in oil-bearing shale instead of conventional oil reservoirs. These qualities make tight oil production fundamentally different from regular crude, posing unique challenges. This case study examines these challenges and explores how shocks to supply and demand affect global oil prices while identifying important policy considerations. Analysis of existing evidence is supported by expert opinions from more than one hundred scholars from top-tier think tank organizations. Finally, implications for United States tight oil production as well as global ramifications of a new low price environment are explored.

The manufacturing industry in Brazil in the era of global value chains

This article presents a comprehensive and detailed overview of the international trade performance of the manufacturing industry in Brazil over the last decades, emphasizing its participation in Global Value Chains. It uses information from recent available global inputoutput tables such as WIOD (World Input-output database) and TIVA (Trade in Value Added, OECD) as well as complementary information from the GTAP 8 (Global Trade Analysis Project) database. The calculation of a broad set of value added type indicators allows a precise contextualization of the ongoing structural changes in the Brazilian industry, highlighting the relative isolation of its manufacturing sector from the most relevant international supply chains. This article also proposes a public policy discussion, presenting two case studies: the first one related to trade facilitation and the second one to preferential trade agreements. The main conclusions are twofold: first, the reduction of time delays at customs in Brazil may significantly improve the trade performance of its manufacturing industry, specially for the more capital intensive sectors which are generally the ones with greater potential to connection to global value chains; second, the extension of the concept of a “preferential trade partner” to the context of the global unbundling of production may pave the way to future trade policy in Brazil, particularly in the mapping of those partners whose bilateral trade relations with Brazil should receive greater priority by policy makers

5th BRICS Trade and Economic Research Network (TERN) meeting: the impact of mega agreements on BRICS

The BRICS TERN – BRICS Trade and Economics Research Network is a group of independent research institutes established four years ago by five think tanks from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The main objective of the network is to study different aspects of trade and economic relations amongst these five countries. The purpose of the V BRICS TERN Meeting was to analyze and debate the effects of the negotiations of the Mega Agreements, mainly those initiated by the US and the EU, already in negotiation, to each of the BRICS Trade Policies. Both Mega Agreements were examined – the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The studies included the main impacts on trade flows and on the international trade rules system, respecting the perspective of each of the countries concerned. This workshop was an initiative of the Center for Global Trade and Investments (CGTI), a think-tank on International Trade held by FGV Sao Paulo School of Economics. Its main objective is the research on trade regulation, preferential trade agreements, trade and currency, trade and global value chains, through legal analysis and economic modelling. One of its main researches, now, is on the potential economic and legal impacts of the Mega Agreements on Brazil and WTO rules. This meeting was organized in March14, 2014, in Rio de Janeiro, in a perfect timing for introducing such issues in the international agenda, in advance of the 6th BRICS Summit scheduled to be held in Brazil in July 2014.

Windows of opportunities and knowledge networks: implications for the catch-up in developing countries

This document represents a doctoral thesis held under the Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration of Getulio Vargas Foundation (EBAPE/FGV), developed through the elaboration of three articles. The research that resulted in the articles is within the scope of the project entitled “Windows of opportunities and knowledge networks: implications for catch-up in developing countries”, funded by Support Programme for Research and Academic Production of Faculty (ProPesquisa) of Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE) of Getulio Vargas Foundation.

Fracking, China and the Global Economy

We develop an intertemporal model of the international economy, where tradeable intermediate goods are produced with capital, labor and hydrocarbons, and used in the production of non-tradeable consumption and investment goods. The model is calibrated to 176 countries, grouped according to their characteristics. We conduct simulations about key events that are currently reshaping the world e.g., fracking and China's new model of development. The model reproduces closely the recent fall in oil prices and delivers results about the impact on global output and consumption, but also about the propagation to different countries through terms of trade and capital accumulation.

The amount of solar energy made available for the production of a sabia (Mimosa caesalpinaefolia Benth.) seed has a determinating effect on its becoming dormant

The amount of solar energy made available for the production of a sabid seed varied as a function of the time of the year, the face of the plant in which, the position in the plant on which and the position in the pod in which it was produced.Variation in solar energy availability as a consequence of the time of the year was a direct consequence of latitude. At 21degrees5'22 S the highest amounts of Global Solar Radiation (GSR) reaching the site where the experiment was conducted took place during the months from November through February. During these months there were no marked differences between any two of the amounts of GSR reaching faces North (N), South (S), West (W) East (E). From February through November (period during which the sabid plants of this study flowered and the resulting seeds matured and were harvested) the total GSR's were the lowest and marked differences were found between faces N and S, with face N receiving much more GSR than face S. During that period, faces W and E received practically the same amount of GSR and it was much less than that received by face N and much more than the one received by face S.The amount of biological energy made available for the development of a seed seemed also to vary according to a dry matter partitioning strategy by the plant -the central third of the plant seemed to be the one receiving the highest amounts of energy, followed either by the upper or the lower third of the plant- it was not very clear which third of the plant immediately followed the central one. The partitioning of biological energy at the pod level also seemed to follow a strategy by which the central seeds would be the ones to receive more, followed by the proximal seeds and these by the distal ones.This availability of energy seemed to have a direct effect on seed size, weight and on the percentage of seeds which showed a degree of dormancy deep enough to prevent their germinating under the conditions of a standard germination test.The implications of these results for the improvement of methods for the overcoming of dormancy of sabia seeds are discussed.

Proteome of the phytopathogen Xanthomonas citri subsp citri: a global expression profile

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fatores influenciadores da implementação de ações de gestão de segurança da informação :um estudo com executivos e gerentes de tecnologia da informação das empresas do Rio Grande do Norte

Information is one of the most valuable organization s assets, mainly on a global and highly competitive world. On this scenery there are two antagonists forces: on one side, organizations struggle for keeping protected its information, specially those considered as strategic, on the other side, the invaders, leaded by innumerous reasons - such as hobby, challenge or one single protest with the intention of capturing and corrupting the information of other organizations. This thesis presents the descriptive results of one research that had as its main objective to identify which variables influence the Executives´ and CIOs´ perceptions toward Information Security. In addition, the research also identified the profile of Rio Grande do Norte s organizations and its Executives/CIOs concerning Information Security, computed the level of agreement of the respondents according to NBR ISO/IEC 17799 (Information technology Code of practice for information security management) on its dimension Access Control. The research was based on a model, which took into account the following variables: origin of the organization s capital, sector of production, number of PCs networked, number of employees with rights to network, number of attacks suffered by the organizations, respondent´s positions, education level, literacy on Information Technology and specific training on network. In the goal´s point of view, the research was classified as exploratory and descriptive, and, in relation of the approach, quantitative. One questionnaire was applied on 33 Executives and CIOs of the 50 Rio Grande do Norte s organizations that collected the highest taxes of ICMS - Imposto sobre Circulação de Mercadorias on 2000. After the data collecting, cluster analysis and chi-square statistical tools were used for data analysis. The research made clear that the Executives and CIOs of Rio Grande do Norte s organizations have low level of agreement concerning the rules of the NBR ISO/IEC 17799. It also made evident that the Executives and CIOs have its perception toward Information Security influenced by the number of PCs networked and by the number of attacks suffered by the organizations

Integration of a regional GPS network within ITRF using precise point positioning

GPS precise point positioning (PPP) can provide high precision 3-D coordinates. Combined pseudorange and carrier phase observables, precise ephemeris and satellite clock corrections, together with data from dual frequency receivers, are the key factors for providing such levels of precision (few centimeters). In general, results obtained from PPP are referenced to an arbitrary reference frame, realized from a previous free network adjustment, in which satellite state vectors, station coordinates and other biases are estimated together. In order to obtain consistent results, the coordinates have to be transformed to the relevant reference frame and the appropriate daily transformation parameters must be available. Furthermore, the coordinates have to be mapped to a chosen reference epoch. If a velocity field is not available, an appropriated model, such as NNR-NUVEL-IA, has to be used. The quality of the results provided by this approach was evaluated using data from the Brazilian Network for Continuous Monitoring of the Global Positioning System (RBMC), which was processed using GIPSY-OASIS 11 software. The results obtained were compared to SIRGAS 1995.4 and ITRF2000, and reached precision better than 2cm. A description of the fundamentals of the PPP approach and its application in the integration of regional GPS networks with ITRF is the main purpose of this paper.

A dense GNSS meteorological network for observing deep convection in the Amazon

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Pancreatic islets from dexamethasone-treated rats show alterations in global gene expression and mitochondrial pathways

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Physical-chemical and thermodynamic analyses of ethanol steam reforming for hydrogen production

Steam reforming is the most usual method of hydrogen production due to its high production efficiency and technological maturity the use of ethanol for this purpose is an interesting option because it is a renewable and environmentally friendly fuel. The objective of this article is to present the physical-chemical, thermodynamic, and exergetic analysis of a steam reformer of ethanol, in order to produce 0.7 Nm(3)/h of hydrogen as feedstock of a 1 kW PEMFC the global reaction of ethanol is considered. Superheated ethanol reacts with steam at high temperatures producing hydrogen and carbon dioxide, depending strongly on the thermodynamic conditions of reforming, as well as on the technical features of the reformer system and catalysts. The thermodynamic analysis shows the feasibility of this reaction in temperatures about 206 degrees C. Below this temperature, the reaction trends to the reactants. The advance degree increases with temperature and decreases with pressure. Optimal temperatures range between 600 and 700 degrees C. However, when the temperature attains 700 degrees C, the reaction stability occurs, that is, the hydrogen production attains the limit. For temperatures above 700 degrees C, the heat use is very high, involving high costs of production due to the higher volume of fuel or electricity used. The optimal pressure is 1 atm., e.g., at atmospheric pressure. The exergetic analysis shows that the lower irreversibility is attained for lower pressures. However the temperature changes do not affect significantly the irreversibilities. This analysis shows that the best thermodynamic conditions for steam reforming of ethanol are the same conditions suggested in the physical-chemical analysis.

Electricity, hot water and cold water production from biomass. Energetic and economical analysis of the compact system of cogeneration run with woodgas from a small downdraft gasifier

Wood gasification technologies to convert the biomass into fuel gas stand out. on the other hand, producing electrical energy from stationary engine is widely spread, and its application in rural communities where the electrical network doesn't exist is very required. The recovery of exhaust gases (engine) is a possibility that makes the system attractive when compared with the same components used to obtain individual heat such as electric power. This paper presents an energetic alternative to adapt a fixed bed gasifier with a compact cogeneration system in order to cover electrical and thermal demands in a rural area and showing an energy solution for small social communities using renewable fuels. Therefore, an energetic and economical analysis from a cogeneration system producing electric energy, hot and cold water, using wooden gas as fuel from a small-sized gasifier was calculated. The energy balance that includes the energy efficiency (electric generation as well as hot and cold water system; performance coefficient and the heat exchanger, among other items), was calculated. Considering the annual interest rates and the amortization periods, the costs of production of electrical energy, hot and cold water were calculated, taking into account the investment, the operation and the maintenance cost of the equipments. Crown Copyright (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Efficient Codification to Solve Distribution Network Reconfiguration for Loss Reduction Problem

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)