Efeitos da desconexão de habitat na diversidade funcional de anfíbios anuros (Amphibia: Anura) na Mata Atlântica

Amphibian populations worldwide have been suffering declines generated by habitat degradation, loss, fragmentation and habitat split. With habitat loss and fragmentation in the landscape comes habitat split, which is the separation between the adult anuran habitat and breeding sites, forcing individuals to move through matrix during breeding seasons. Thus, habitat split increases the chance of extinction of amphibians with aquatic larval development and acts as a filter in the selection of species having great influence on species richness and community structure. The use of functional diversity allows us to consider the identity and characteristics of each species to understand the effects of fragmentation processes. The objective of this study was to estimate the effects of habitat split, as well as habitat loss in the landscape, on amphibians functional diversity (FD) and species richness (S). We selected 26 landscapes from a database with anuran surveys of Brazilian Atlantic Forest. For each landscape we calculated DF, S and landscape metrics at multiple scales. To calculate the DF we considered traits that influenced species use and persistence in the landscape. We refined maps of forest remnants and water bodies for metrics calculation. To relate DF and S (response variables) to landscape variables (explanatory variables), we used a model selection approach, fitting generalized linear models (GLMS) and making your selection with AICc. We compared the effect of model absence and models with habitat split, habitat amount and habitat connectivity effects, as well as their interaction. The most plausible models for S were the sum and interaction between habitat split in 7.5 km scale. For anurans with terrestrial development, habitat amount was the only plausible explanatory variable, in the 5 km scale. For anurans with aquatic larvae habitat amount in larger scales and the addition of habitat amount and habitat split were plausible...

Cetaceans of Southeast Alaska: Distribution and Seasonal Occurrence

Aim To assess the distribution, group size, seasonal occurrence and annual trends of cetaceans. Location The study area included all major inland waters of Southeast Alaska. Methods Between 1991 and 2007, cetacean surveys were conducted by observers who kept a constant watch when the vessel was underway and recorded all cetaceans encountered. For each species, we examined distributional patterns, group size, seasonal occurrence and annual trends. Analysis of variance (anova F) was used to test for differences in group sizes between multiple means, and Student’s t-test was used to detect differences between pairwise means. Cetacean seasonal occurrence and annual trends were investigated using a generalized linear model framework. Results Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) were seen throughout the region, with numbers lowest in spring and highest in the fall. Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) and minke whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) distributions were more restricted than that reported for humpback whales, and the low number of sightings precluded evaluating seasonal trends. Three killer whale (Orcinus orca) eco-types were documented with distributions occurring throughout inland waters. Seasonal patterns were not detected or could not be evaluated for resident and offshore killer whales, respectively; however, the transient eco-type was more abundant in the summer. Dall’s porpoise (Phocoenoides dalli) were distributed throughout the region, with more sightings in spring and summer than in fall. Harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) distribution was clumped, with concentrations occurring in the Icy Strait/Glacier Bay and Wrangell areas and with no evidence of seasonality. Pacific white-sided dolphins (Lagenorhynchus obliquidens) were observed only occasionally, with more sightings in the spring. For most species, group size varied on both an annual and seasonal basis. Main conclusions Seven cetacean species occupy the inland waters of Southeast Alaska, with distribution, group size, seasonal occurrence and annual trends varying by species. Future studies that compare spatial and temporal patterns with other features (e.g. oceanography, prey resources) may help in identifying the key factors that support the high density and biodiversity of cetaceans found in this region. An increased understanding of the region’s marine ecology is an essential step towards ensuring the long-term conservation of cetaceans in Southeast Alaska.

Efeitos da desconexão de habitat na diversidade funcional de anfíbios anuros (Amphibia: Anura) na Mata Atlântica

Amphibian populations worldwide have been suffering declines generated by habitat degradation, loss, fragmentation and habitat split. With habitat loss and fragmentation in the landscape comes habitat split, which is the separation between the adult anuran habitat and breeding sites, forcing individuals to move through matrix during breeding seasons. Thus, habitat split increases the chance of extinction of amphibians with aquatic larval development and acts as a filter in the selection of species having great influence on species richness and community structure. The use of functional diversity allows us to consider the identity and characteristics of each species to understand the effects of fragmentation processes. The objective of this study was to estimate the effects of habitat split, as well as habitat loss in the landscape, on amphibians functional diversity (FD) and species richness (S). We selected 26 landscapes from a database with anuran surveys of Brazilian Atlantic Forest. For each landscape we calculated DF, S and landscape metrics at multiple scales. To calculate the DF we considered traits that influenced species use and persistence in the landscape. We refined maps of forest remnants and water bodies for metrics calculation. To relate DF and S (response variables) to landscape variables (explanatory variables), we used a model selection approach, fitting generalized linear models (GLMS) and making your selection with AICc. We compared the effect of model absence and models with habitat split, habitat amount and habitat connectivity effects, as well as their interaction. The most plausible models for S were the sum and interaction between habitat split in 7.5 km scale. For anurans with terrestrial development, habitat amount was the only plausible explanatory variable, in the 5 km scale. For anurans with aquatic larvae habitat amount in larger scales and the addition of habitat amount and habitat split were plausible...

Prediction with measurement errors in finite populations

We address the problem of selecting the best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) of the latent value (e.g., serum glucose fasting level) of sample subjects with heteroskedastic measurement errors. Using a simple example, we compare the usual mixed model BLUP to a similar predictor based on a mixed model framed in a finite population (FPMM) setup with two sources of variability, the first of which corresponds to simple random sampling and the second, to heteroskedastic measurement errors. Under this last approach, we show that when measurement errors are subject-specific, the BLUP shrinkage constants are based on a pooled measurement error variance as opposed to the individual ones generally considered for the usual mixed model BLUP. In contrast, when the heteroskedastic measurement errors are measurement condition-specific, the FPMM BLUP involves different shrinkage constants. We also show that in this setup, when measurement errors are subject-specific, the usual mixed model predictor is biased but has a smaller mean squared error than the FPMM BLUP which points to some difficulties in the interpretation of such predictors. (C) 2011 Elsevier By. All rights reserved.

The effect of implant design on insertion torque and immediate micromotion

Objectives: To evaluate the effect of insertion torque on micromotion to a lateral force in three different implant designs. Material and methods: Thirty-six implants with identical thread design, but different cutting groove design were divided in three groups: (1) non-fluted (no cutting groove, solid screw-form); (2) fluted (901 cut at the apex, tap design); and (3) Blossomt (Patent pending) (non-fluted with engineered trimmed thread design). The implants were screwed into polyurethane foam blocks and the insertion torque was recorded after each turn of 901 by a digital torque gauge. Controlled lateral loads of 10N followed by increments of 5 up to 100N were sequentially applied by a digital force gauge on a titanium abutment. Statistical comparison was performed with two-way mixed model ANOVA that evaluated implant design group, linear effects of turns and displacement loads, and their interaction. Results: While insertion torque increased as a function of number of turns for each design, the slope and final values increased (Po0.001) progressively from the Blossomt to the fluted to the non-fluted design (M +/- standard deviation [SD] = 64.1 +/- 26.8, 139.4 +/- 17.2, and 205.23 +/- 24.3 Ncm, respectively). While a linear relationship between horizontal displacement and lateral force was observed for each design, the slope and maximal displacement increased (Po0.001) progressively from the Blossomt to the fluted to the non-fluted design (M +/- SD 530 +/- 57.7, 585.9 +/- 82.4, and 782.33 +/- 269.4 mm, respectively). There was negligible to moderate levels of association between insertion torque and lateral displacement in the Blossomt, fluted and non-fluted design groups, respectively. Conclusion: Insertion torque was reduced in implant macrodesigns that incorporated cutting edges, and lesser insertion torque was generally associated with decreased micromovement. However, insertion torque and micromotion were unrelated within implant designs, particularly for those designs showing the least insertion torque.

Awareness and knowledge of HPV, cervical cancer, and vaccines in young women after first delivery in São Paulo, Brazil - a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background The success of HPV vaccination programs will require awareness regarding HPV associated diseases and the benefits of HPV vaccination for the general population. The aim of this study was to assess the level of awareness and knowledge of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, cervical cancer prevention, vaccines, and factors associated with HPV awareness among young women after birth of the first child. Methods This analysis is part of a cross-sectional study carried out at Hospital Maternidade Leonor Mendes de Barros, a large public maternity hospital in Sao Paulo. Primiparous women (15-24 years) who gave birth in that maternity hospital were included. A questionnaire that included questions concerning knowledge of HPV, cervical cancer, and vaccines was applied. To estimate the association of HPV awareness with selected factors, prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated using a generalized linear model (GLM). Results Three hundred and one primiparous women were included; 37% of them reported that they "had ever heard about HPV", but only 19% and 7%, respectively, knew that HPV is a sexually transmitted infection (STI) and that it can cause cervical cancer. Seventy-four percent of interviewees mentioned the preventive character of vaccines and all participants affirmed that they would accept HPV vaccination after delivery. In the multivariate analysis, only increasing age (P for trend = 0.021) and previous STI (P < 0.001) were factors independently associated with HPV awareness ("had ever heard about HPV"). Conclusions This survey indicated that knowledge about the association between HPV and cervical cancer among primiparous young women is low. Therefore, these young low-income primiparous women could benefit greatly from educational interventions to encourage primary and secondary cervical cancer prevention programs.

Cough and dyspnea during bronchoconstriction: comparison of different stimuli

Abstract Background Bronchial challenge tests are used to evaluate bronchial responsiveness in diagnosis and follow-up of asthmatic patients. Challenge induced cough has increasingly been recognized as a valuable diagnostic tool. Various stimuli and protocols have been employed. The aim of this study was to compare cough and dyspnea intensity induced by different stimuli. Methods Twenty asthmatic patients underwent challenge tests with methacholine, bradykinin and exercise. Cough was counted during challenge tests. Dyspnea was assessed by modified Borg scale and visual analogue scale. Statistical comparisons were performed by linear mixed-effects model. Results For cough evaluation, bradykinin was the most potent trigger (p < 0.01). In terms of dyspnea measured by Borg scale, there were no differences among stimuli (p > 0.05). By visual analogue scale, bradykinin induced more dyspnea than other stimuli (p ≤ 0.04). Conclusion Bradykinin seems to be the most suitable stimulus for bronchial challenge tests intended for measuring cough in association with bronchoconstriction.

Catch rates of artisanal fisheries targeting Dasyatis guttata (Bloch & Schneider, 1801) in Todos os Santos Bay, northeastern Brazil

Dasyatis guttata has been target of artisanal fisheries in the coast of Bahia (Northeast Brazil) mainly by “arraieira” (gillnet) and “grozeira” (bottom long-line), but until now there is no stock assessment study. One of the important data for this knowledge is reliable indices of abundance. The aims of the present work are to: (1) estimate the best predictor for relative abundance (catch-per-unit-of-effort, CPUE), examining whether catch (production – kg) was related to: soak time of the gear, size of the gillnet or number of hooks, applying generalized linear model (GLM); (2) estimate the annual CPUE (kg/hooks and kg/m) averaged by gear; and (3) assess the temporal CPUE variance. Based on monthly sampling between January 2012 and January 2013, 222 landings by grozeira and 76 by arraiaiera were recorded in the two landing sites in Todos os Santos Bay, Bahia. A total of 14,550 kg (average = 44 kg/month) of D. guttata was captured. Models for both gears were highly significant (P < 0.0001). The analysis indicated that the most appropriate variable for CPUE analysis was the size of the gillnet (P < 0.001) and the number of hooks (P < 0.0001). Soak time of the gear was not significant for both gears (P = 0.4). High residual deviance expresses the complexity of the relations between ecosystem factors and other fisheries factors affecting relative abundance, which were not considered in this study. The average CPUE by grozeira was 6.39 kg/100 hooks ± 8.89 and by arraieira, 1.47 kg/100 m ± 1.66 over the year. Kruskal-Wallis test showed effect of the month on the mean grozeira CPUE (P = <0.001), but no effect (P = 0.096) on the mean arraieira CPUE. Grozeira CPUE values were highest in December and March, and lowest between May to August

Creep and damage models for the service behaviour of structural members

Deformability is often a crucial to the conception of many civil-engineering structural elements. Also, design is all the more burdensome if both long- and short-term deformability has to be considered. In this thesis, long- and short-term deformability has been studied from the material and the structural modelling point of view. Moreover, two materials have been handled: pultruded composites and concrete. A new finite element model for thin-walled beams has been introduced. As a main assumption, cross-sections rigid are considered rigid in their plane; this hypothesis replaces that of the classical beam theory of plane cross-sections in the deformed state. That also allows reducing the total number of degrees of freedom, and therefore making analysis faster compared with twodimensional finite elements. Longitudinal direction warping is left free, allowing describing phenomena such as the shear lag. The new finite-element model has been first applied to concrete thin-walled beams (such as roof high span girders or bridge girders) subject to instantaneous service loadings. Concrete in his cracked state has been considered through a smeared crack model for beams under bending. At a second stage, the FE-model has been extended to the viscoelastic field and applied to pultruded composite beams under sustained loadings. The generalized Maxwell model has been adopted. As far as materials are concerned, long-term creep tests have been carried out on pultruded specimens. Both tension and shear tests have been executed. Some specimen has been strengthened with carbon fibre plies to reduce short- and long- term deformability. Tests have been done in a climate room and specimens kept 2 years under constant load in time. As for concrete, a model for tertiary creep has been proposed. The basic idea is to couple the UMLV linear creep model with a damage model in order to describe nonlinearity. An effective strain tensor, weighting the total and the elasto-damaged strain tensors, controls damage evolution through the damage loading function. Creep strains are related to the effective stresses (defined by damage models) and so associated to the intact material.

Multilevel Analysis in Household Survey: An Application to Health Condition Data

The aim of this thesis is to apply multilevel regression model in context of household surveys. Hierarchical structure in this type of data is characterized by many small groups. In last years comparative and multilevel analysis in the field of perceived health have grown in size. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a multilevel analysis with three level of hierarchy for Physical Component Summary outcome to: evaluate magnitude of within and between variance at each level (individual, household and municipality); explore which covariates affect on perceived physical health at each level; compare model-based and design-based approach in order to establish informativeness of sampling design; estimate a quantile regression for hierarchical data. The target population are the Italian residents aged 18 years and older. Our study shows a high degree of homogeneity within level 1 units belonging from the same group, with an intraclass correlation of 27% in a level-2 null model. Almost all variance is explained by level 1 covariates. In fact, in our model the explanatory variables having more impact on the outcome are disability, unable to work, age and chronic diseases (18 pathologies). An additional analysis are performed by using novel procedure of analysis :"Linear Quantile Mixed Model", named "Multilevel Linear Quantile Regression", estimate. This give us the possibility to describe more generally the conditional distribution of the response through the estimation of its quantiles, while accounting for the dependence among the observations. This has represented a great advantage of our models with respect to classic multilevel regression. The median regression with random effects reveals to be more efficient than the mean regression in representation of the outcome central tendency. A more detailed analysis of the conditional distribution of the response on other quantiles highlighted a differential effect of some covariate along the distribution.

Sustainable improvement of water networks : to achieve best decisions for rehabilitation plans using advanced GIS and statistical techniques

Many of developing countries are facing crisis in water management due to increasing of population, water scarcity, water contaminations and effects of world economic crisis. Water distribution systems in developing countries are facing many challenges of efficient repair and rehabilitation since the information of water network is very limited, which makes the rehabilitation assessment plans very difficult. Sufficient information with high technology in developed countries makes the assessment for rehabilitation easy. Developing countries have many difficulties to assess the water network causing system failure, deterioration of mains and bad water quality in the network due to pipe corrosion and deterioration. The limited information brought into focus the urgent need to develop economical assessment for rehabilitation of water distribution systems adapted to water utilities. Gaza Strip is subject to a first case study, suffering from severe shortage in the water supply and environmental problems and contamination of underground water resources. This research focuses on improvement of water supply network to reduce the water losses in water network based on limited database using techniques of ArcGIS and commercial water network software (WaterCAD). A new approach for rehabilitation water pipes has been presented in Gaza city case study. Integrated rehabilitation assessment model has been developed for rehabilitation water pipes including three components; hydraulic assessment model, Physical assessment model and Structural assessment model. WaterCAD model has been developed with integrated in ArcGIS to produce the hydraulic assessment model for water network. The model have been designed based on pipe condition assessment with 100 score points as a maximum points for pipe condition. As results from this model, we can indicate that 40% of water pipeline have score points less than 50 points and about 10% of total pipes length have less than 30 score points. By using this model, the rehabilitation plans for each region in Gaza city can be achieved based on available budget and condition of pipes. The second case study is Kuala Lumpur Case from semi-developed countries, which has been used to develop an approach to improve the water network under crucial conditions using, advanced statistical and GIS techniques. Kuala Lumpur (KL) has water losses about 40% and high failure rate, which make severe problem. This case can represent cases in South Asia countries. Kuala Lumpur faced big challenges to reduce the water losses in water network during last 5 years. One of these challenges is high deterioration of asbestos cement (AC) pipes. They need to replace more than 6500 km of AC pipes, which need a huge budget to be achieved. Asbestos cement is subject to deterioration due to various chemical processes that either leach out the cement material or penetrate the concrete to form products that weaken the cement matrix. This case presents an approach for geo-statistical model for modelling pipe failures in a water distribution network. Database of Syabas Company (Kuala Lumpur water company) has been used in developing the model. The statistical models have been calibrated, verified and used to predict failures for both networks and individual pipes. The mathematical formulation developed for failure frequency in Kuala Lumpur was based on different pipeline characteristics, reflecting several factors such as pipe diameter, length, pressure and failure history. Generalized linear model have been applied to predict pipe failures based on District Meter Zone (DMZ) and individual pipe levels. Based on Kuala Lumpur case study, several outputs and implications have been achieved. Correlations between spatial and temporal intervals of pipe failures also have been done using ArcGIS software. Water Pipe Assessment Model (WPAM) has been developed using the analysis of historical pipe failure in Kuala Lumpur which prioritizing the pipe rehabilitation candidates based on ranking system. Frankfurt Water Network in Germany is the third main case study. This case makes an overview for Survival analysis and neural network methods used in water network. Rehabilitation strategies of water pipes have been developed for Frankfurt water network in cooperation with Mainova (Frankfurt Water Company). This thesis also presents a methodology of technical condition assessment of plastic pipes based on simple analysis. This thesis aims to make contribution to improve the prediction of pipe failures in water networks using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). The output from the technical condition assessment model can be used to estimate future budget needs for rehabilitation and to define pipes with high priority for replacement based on poor condition. rn

A prediction model for assessing residential radon concentration in Switzerland

Indoor radon is regularly measured in Switzerland. However, a nationwide model to predict residential radon levels has not been developed. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to assess indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland. The model was based on 44,631 measurements from the nationwide Swiss radon database collected between 1994 and 2004. Of these, 80% randomly selected measurements were used for model development and the remaining 20% for an independent model validation. A multivariable log-linear regression model was fitted and relevant predictors selected according to evidence from the literature, the adjusted R², the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The prediction model was evaluated by calculating Spearman rank correlation between measured and predicted values. Additionally, the predicted values were categorised into three categories (50th, 50th-90th and 90th percentile) and compared with measured categories using a weighted Kappa statistic. The most relevant predictors for indoor radon levels were tectonic units and year of construction of the building, followed by soil texture, degree of urbanisation, floor of the building where the measurement was taken and housing type (P-values <0.001 for all). Mean predicted radon values (geometric mean) were 66 Bq/m³ (interquartile range 40-111 Bq/m³) in the lowest exposure category, 126 Bq/m³ (69-215 Bq/m³) in the medium category, and 219 Bq/m³ (108-427 Bq/m³) in the highest category. Spearman correlation between predictions and measurements was 0.45 (95%-CI: 0.44; 0.46) for the development dataset and 0.44 (95%-CI: 0.42; 0.46) for the validation dataset. Kappa coefficients were 0.31 for the development and 0.30 for the validation dataset, respectively. The model explained 20% overall variability (adjusted R²). In conclusion, this residential radon prediction model, based on a large number of measurements, was demonstrated to be robust through validation with an independent dataset. The model is appropriate for predicting radon level exposure of the Swiss population in epidemiological research. Nevertheless, some exposure misclassification and regression to the mean is unavoidable and should be taken into account in future applications of the model.

Modeling of red blood cell life-spans in hematologically normal populations

Despite the impact of red blood cell (RBC) Life-spans in some disease areas such as diabetes or anemia of chronic kidney disease, there is no consensus on how to quantitatively best describe the process. Several models have been proposed to explain the elimination process of RBCs: random destruction process, homogeneous life-span model, or a series of 4-transit compartment model. The aim of this work was to explore the different models that have been proposed in literature, and modifications to those. The impact of choosing the right model on future outcomes prediction--in the above mentioned areas--was also investigated. Both data from indirect (clinical data) and direct life-span measurement (biotin-labeled data) methods were analyzed using non-linear mixed effects models. Analysis showed that: (1) predictions from non-steady state data will depend on the RBC model chosen; (2) the transit compartment model, which considers variation in life-span in the RBC population, better describes RBC survival data than the random destruction or homogenous life-span models; and (3) the additional incorporation of random destruction patterns, although improving the description of the RBC survival data, does not appear to provide a marked improvement when describing clinical data.

Association between symptoms and quality of life in patients with schizophrenia: a pooled analysis of changes over time

Quality of life is an important outcome in the treatment of patients with schizophrenia. It has been suggested that patients' quality of life ratings (referred to as subjective quality of life, SQOL) might be too heavily influenced by symptomatology to be a valid independent outcome criterion. There has been only limited evidence on the association of symptom change and changes in SQOL over time. This study aimed to examine the association between changes in symptoms and in SQOL among patients with schizophrenia. A pooled data set was obtained from eight longitudinal studies that had used the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) for measuring psychiatric symptoms and either the Lancashire Quality of Life Profile or the Manchester Short Assessment of Quality of Life for assessing SQOL. The sample comprised 886 patients with schizophrenia. After controlling for heterogeneity of findings across studies using linear mixed models, a reduction in psychiatric symptoms was associated with improvements in SQOL scores. In univariate analyses, changes in all BPRS subscales were associated with changes in SQOL scores. In a multivariate model, only associations between changes in the BPRS depression/anxiety and hostility subscales and changes in SQOL remained significant, with 5% and 0.5% of the variance in SQOL changes being attributable to changes in depression/anxiety and hostility respectively. All BPRS subscales together explained 8.5% of variance. The findings indicate that SQOL changes are influenced by symptom change, in particular in depression/anxiety. The level of influence is limited and may not compromise using SQOL as an independent outcome measure.

Identification of SNPs in the cystic fibrosis interactome influencing pulmonary progression in cystic fibrosis

There is growing evidence that the great phenotypic variability in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) not only depends on the genotype, but apart from a combination of environmental and stochastic factors predominantly also on modifier gene effects. It has been proposed that genes interacting with CF transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) and epithelial sodium channel (ENaC) are potential modifiers. Therefore, we assessed the impact of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of several of these interacters on CF disease outcome. SNPs that potentially alter gene function were genotyped in 95 well-characterized p.Phe508del homozygous CF patients. Linear mixed-effect model analysis was used to assess the relationship between sequence variants and the repeated measurements of lung function parameters. In total, we genotyped 72 SNPs in 10 genes. Twenty-five SNPs were used for statistical analysis, where we found strong associations for one SNP in PPP2R4 with the lung clearance index (P ≤ 0.01), the specific effective airway resistance (P ≤ 0.005) and the forced expiratory volume in 1 s (P ≤ 0.005). In addition, we identified one SNP in SNAP23 to be significantly associated with three lung function parameters as well as one SNP in PPP2R1A and three in KRT19 to show a significant influence on one lung function parameter each. Our findings indicate that direct interacters with CFTR, such as SNAP23, PPP2R4 and PPP2R1A, may modify the residual function of p.Phe508del-CFTR while variants in KRT19 may modulate the amount of p.Phe508del-CFTR at the apical membrane and consequently modify CF disease.