Conservation of threatened habitat types under future climate change – Lessons from plant-distribution models and current extinction trends in southern Germany

A higher risk of future range losses as a result of climate change is expected to be one of the main drivers of extinction trends in vascular plants occurring in habitat types of high conservation value. Nevertheless, the impact of the climate changes of the last 60 years on the current distribution and extinction patterns of plants is still largely unclear. We applied species distribution models to study the impact of environmental variables (climate, soil conditions, land cover, topography), on the current distribution of 18 vascular plant species characteristic of three threatened habitat types in southern Germany: (i) xero-thermophilous vegetation, (ii) mesophilous mountain grasslands (mountain hay meadows and matgrass communities), and (iii) wetland habitats (bogs, fens, and wet meadows). Climate and soil variables were the most important variables affecting plant distributions at a spatial level of 10 × 10 km. Extinction trends in our study area revealed that plant species which occur in wetland habitats faced higher extinction risks than those in xero-thermophilous vegetation, with the risk for species in mesophilous mountain grasslands being intermediary. For three plant species characteristic either of mesophilous mountain grasslands or wetland habitats we showed exemplarily that extinctions from 1950 to the present day have occurred at the edge of the species’ current climatic niche, indicating that climate change has likely been the main driver of extinction. This is largely consistent with current extinction trends reported in other studies. Our study indicates that the analysis of past extinctions is an appropriate means to assess the impact of climate change on species and that vulnerability to climate change is both species- and habitat-specific.

A pharyngeal jaw evolutionary innovation facilitated extinction in Lake Victoria cichlids

Evolutionary innovations, traits that give species access to previously unoccupied niches, may promote speciation and adaptive radiation. Here, we show that such innovations can also result in competitive inferiority and extinction. We present evidence that the modified pharyngeal jaws of cichlid fishes and several marine fish lineages, a classic example of evolutionary innovation, are not universally beneficial. A large-scale analysis of dietary evolution across marine fish lineages reveals that the innovation compromises access to energy-rich predator niches. We show that this competitive inferiority shaped the adaptive radiation of cichlids in Lake Tanganyika and played a pivotal and previously unrecognized role in the mass extinction of cichlid fishes in Lake Victoria after Nile perch invasion.

Nonperturbative estimate of the heavy quark momentum diffusion coefficient

We estimate the momentum diffusion coefficient of a heavy quark within a pure SU(3) plasma at a temperature of about 1.5Tc. Large-scale Monte Carlo simulations on a series of lattices extending up to 1923×48 permit us to carry out a continuum extrapolation of the so-called color-electric imaginary-time correlator. The extrapolated correlator is analyzed with the help of theoretically motivated models for the corresponding spectral function. Evidence for a nonzero transport coefficient is found and, incorporating systematic uncertainties reflecting model assumptions, we obtain κ=(1.8–3.4)T3. This implies that the “drag coefficient,” characterizing the time scale at which heavy quarks adjust to hydrodynamic flow, is η−1D=(1.8–3.4)(Tc/T)2(M/1.5  GeV)  fm/c, where M is the heavy quark kinetic mass. The results apply to bottom and, with somewhat larger systematic uncertainties, to charm quarks.

A Bayesian approach to estimating the intraclass correlation coefficient

A Bayesian approach to estimating the intraclass correlation coefficient was used for this research project. The background of the intraclass correlation coefficient, a summary of its standard estimators, and a review of basic Bayesian terminology and methodology were presented. The conditional posterior density of the intraclass correlation coefficient was then derived and estimation procedures related to this derivation were shown in detail. Three examples of applications of the conditional posterior density to specific data sets were also included. Two sets of simulation experiments were performed to compare the mean and mode of the conditional posterior density of the intraclass correlation coefficient to more traditional estimators. Non-Bayesian methods of estimation used were: the methods of analysis of variance and maximum likelihood for balanced data; and the methods of MIVQUE (Minimum Variance Quadratic Unbiased Estimation) and maximum likelihood for unbalanced data. The overall conclusion of this research project was that Bayesian estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient can be appropriate, useful and practical alternatives to traditional methods of estimation. ^

(Table 1) Attenuation coefficient of lateral propagating light in sea ice, southern Beaufort Sea

The attenuation property of a lateral propagating light (LPL) in sea ice was measured using an artificial lamp in the Canadian Arctic during the 2007/2008 winter. A measurement method is proposed and applied whereby a recording instrument is buried in the sea ice and an artificial lamp is moved across the instrument. The apparent attenuation coefficient µ(lamda) for the lateral propagating light is obtained from the measured logarithmic relative variation rate. With the exception of blue and red lights, the attenuation coefficient changed little with wavelength, but changed considerably with depth. The vertical decrease of the attenuation coefficient was found to be correlated with salinity: the greater the salinity, the greater the attenuation coefficient. A clear linear relation of salinity and the lateral attenuation coefficient with R2 = 0.939 exists to address the close correlation of the attenuation of LPL with the scattering from the brine. The observed attenuation coefficient of LPL is much larger than that of the vertical propagation light, which we speculate to be caused by scattering. Part of this scattered component is transmitted out of the sea ice from the upper and lower surfaces.

(Table 2) Similarity Indexes (Pearson's correlation coefficient) of the silicoflagellate assemblages of IODP Exp302

The silicoflagellate and ebridian assemblages in early middle Eocene Arctic cores obtained by IODP Expedition 302 (ACEX) were studied in order to decipher the paleoceanography of the upper water column. The assemblages in Lithologic Unit 2 (49.7-45.1 Ma), one of the biosiliceous intervals, were usually endemic as compared to the assemblages that occurred outside of the Arctic Ocean. The presence of these endemic assemblages is probably due to a unique environmental setting, controlled by the degree of mixing between the low-salinity Arctic waters and relatively high salinity waters supplied from outside the Arctic Ocean, such as the Atlantic and possibly the Western Siberian Sea. Using the basin-to-basin fractionation model, the early middle Eocene Arctic Ocean corresponds to an estuarine circulation type, which includes the modern-day Black Sea. The abundant down-core occurrence of ebridians strongly suggests the past presence of low-salinity waters, and may indicate that low oxygen concentrations prevailed in the euphotic layer, on the basis of the ecology of the modern ebridian Hermesinum adriaticum.