856 resultados para Expectations hypothesis
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Using a sample of dilepton top-quark pair (tt ¯ ) candidate events, a study is performed of the production of top-quark pairs together with heavy-flavor (HF) quarks, the sum of tt ¯ +b+X and tt ¯ +c+X , collectively referred to as tt ¯ + HF . The data set used corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 4.7 fb −1 of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The presence of additional HF (b or c ) quarks in the tt ¯ sample is inferred by looking for events with at least three b -tagged jets, where two are attributed to the b quarks from the tt ¯ decays and the third to additional HF production. The dominant background to tt ¯ + HF in this sample is tt ¯ +jet events in which a light-flavor jet is misidentified as a heavy-flavor jet. To determine the heavy- and light-flavor content of the additional b -tagged jets, a fit to the vertex mass distribution of b -tagged jets in the sample is performed. The result of the fit shows that 79 ± 14 (stat) ± 22 (syst) of the 105 selected extra b -tagged jets originate from HF quarks, 3 standard deviations away from the hypothesis of zero tt ¯ + HF production. The result for extra HF production is quoted as a ratio (R HF ) of the cross section for tt ¯ + HF production to the cross section for tt ¯ production with at least one additional jet. Both cross sections are measured in a fiducial kinematic region within the ATLAS acceptance. R HF is measured to be [6.2±1.1(stat)±1.8(syst)]% for jets with p T >25 GeV and |η|<2.5 , in agreement with the expectations from Monte Carlo generators.
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This paper addresses two major topics concerning the role of expectations in the formation of reference points. First, we show that when expectations are present, they have a significant impact on reference point formation. Second, we find that decision-makers employ expected values when forming reference points (integrated mechanism) as opposed to single possible outcomes (segregated mechanism). Despite the importance of reference points in prospect theory, to date, there is no standard method of examining these. We develop a new experimental design that employs an indirect approach and extends an existing direct approach. Our findings are consistent across the two approaches.
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Paper I: Corporate aging and internal resource allocation Abstract Various observers argue that established firms are at a disadvantage in pursuing new growth opportunities. In this paper, we provide systematic evidence that established firms allocate fewer resources to high-growth lines of business. However, we find no evidence of inefficient resource allocation in established firms. Redirecting resources from high-growth to low-growth lines of business does not result in lower profitability. Also, resource allocation towards new growth opportunities does not increase when managers of established firms are exposed to takeover and product market threats. Rather, it seems that conservative resource allocation strategies are driven by pressures to meet investors’ expectations. Our empirical evidence, thus, favors the hypothesis that established firms wisely choose to allocate fewer resources to new growth opportunities as external pressures force them to focus on efficiency rather than novelty (Holmström 1989). Paper II: Corporate aging and asset sales Abstract This paper asks whether divestitures are motivated by strategic considerations about the scope of the firm’s activities. Limited managerial capacity implies that exploiting core competences becomes comparatively more attractive than exploring new growth opportunities as firms mature. Divestitures help stablished firms free management time and increase the focus on core competences. The testable implication of this attention hypothesis is that established firms are the main sellers of assets, that their divestiture activity increases when managerial capacity is scarcer, that they sell non-core activities, and that they return the divestiture proceeds to the providers of capital instead of reinvesting them in the firm. We find strong empirical support for these predictions. Paper III: Corporate aging and lobbying expenditures Abstract Creative destruction forces constantly challenge established firms, especially in competitive markets. This paper asks whether corporate lobbying is a competitive weapon of established firms to counteract the decline in rents over time. We find a statistically and economically significant positive relation between firm age and lobbying expenditures. Moreover, the documented age-effect is weaker when firms have unique products or operate in concentrated product markets. To address endogeneity, we use industry distress as an exogenous nonlegislative shock to future rents and show that established firms are relatively more likely to lobby when in distress. Finally, we provide empirical evidence that corporate lobbying efforts by established firms forestall the creative destruction process. In sum, our findings suggest that corporate lobbying is a competitive weapon of established firms to retain profitability in competitive environments.
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Expectations for what functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) can offer psychophysiology vary greatly. Overreaching enthusiasm such as the idea that fMRI can reveal lies and political attitudes are as common as the opinion that fMRI, in its current form, is useless for the advancement of psychological theories. Errors in the inferences being drawn from fMRI data may be contributing to each of these extreme positions, so the present paper addresses these several common inferential errors and describes some of the potential of fMRI for psychophysiological theory and research.
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How is adolescents’ willingness for intergenerational support affected by parents’ expectations and parenting behavior? Does youths’ willingness for intergenerational support in turn affect parents’ well-being? The current study addresses these questions from a cross-cultural perspective, using data from connected samples of mother-adolescent dyads (N = 4162) from 14 diverse cultural contexts as part of the “Value of Children and Intergenerational Relations Study” (Trommsdorff & Nauck, 2005). The results are based on mixed model analyses (with culture as a random factor). Associations were investigated between family norms (expectations of support by adult children), parenting goals (obedience, independence) and parenting behavior (acceptance, control) reported by mothers and adolescents’ reports on willingness to support (help in household tasks, willingness to tolerate burdens in order to help their parents in case of accident, emotional support given to mothers and fathers). Across cultures, maternal expectations of adult children were positively related to adolescents’ reported household help and their current emotional support to mothers and fathers. Obedience, and control were positively related to the amount of adolescent help in the household, while independence and acceptance were related to a higher willingness to tolerate burdens as well as to higher emotional support given to the mother. Regarding associations between adolescents’ actual and intended intergenerational support with mothers’ life satisfaction, adolescents’ willingness to tolerate burdens was related to a higher maternal life satisfaction while adolescents’ reported household help was not. Adolescents’ current emotional support to fathers (but not to mothers) was also related to higher maternal life satisfaction. While most of the effects were stable across cultures (no significant random slope variance across cultural groups), some effects did significantly vary across cultures. Traditional-vs.-secular values as culture-level characteristics will be discussed as explanation for these culture-specific relations among mothers’ expectations, adolescents’ intergenerational support, and mothers’ life satisfaction.
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In the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, scholars have begun to revise their conceptions of how market participants interact. While the traditional “rationalist optic” posits market participants who are able to process decisionrelevant information and thereby transform uncertainty into quantifiable risks, the increasingly popular “sociological optic” stresses the role of uncertainty in expectation formation and social conventions for creating confidence in markets. Applications of the sociological optic to concrete regulatory problems are still limited. By subjecting both optics to the same regulatory problem—the role of credit rating agencies (CRAs) and their ratings in capital markets—this paper provides insights into whether the sociological optic offers advice to tackle concrete regulatory problems and discusses the potential of the sociological optic in complementing the rationalist optic. The empirical application suggests that the sociological optic is not only able to improve our understanding of the role of CRAs and their ratings, but also to provide solutions complementary to those posited by the rationalist optic.
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Background Nowadays there is extensive evidence available showing the efficacy of cognitive remediation (CR). To date, only limited evidence is available about the impact of the duration of illness on CR effects. The Integrated Neurocognitive Therapy (INT) represents a new developed CR approach. It is a manualized group therapy targeting all 11 NIMH-MATRICS domains. Methods In an international multicenter study, 166 schizophrenia outpatients (DSM-IV-TR) were randomly assigned either to INT or to Treatment-As-Usual (TAU). 60 patients were defined as Early Course group (EC) characterized by less than 5 years of illness, 40 patients were in the Long-Term group (LT) characterized by more than 15 years of illness, and 76 patients were in the Medium-Long-Term group (MLT) characterized by an illness of 5-15 years. Treatment comprised of 15 biweekly sessions. Assessments were conducted before and after treatment and at follow up (1 year). Multivariate General Linear Models (GLM) examined our hypothesis, whether EC, LT, and MLT groups differ under INT and TAU from each other in outcome. Results First of all, the attendance rate of 65% was significantly lower and the drop out rate of 18.5% during therapy was higher in the EC group compared to the other groups. Interaction effects regarding proximal outcome showed that the duration of illness has a strong impact on neurocognitive functioning in speed of processing (F>2.4) and attention (F>2.8). But INT intervention compared to TAU only had a significant effect in more chronically ill patients of MLT and LT, but not in younger patients in EC. In social cognitive domains, only the EC group showed a significant change in attribution (hostility; F>2.5), LT and MLT groups did not. However, no differences between the 3 groups were evident in memory, problem solving, and emotion perception. Regarding more distal outcome, LT patients had more symptoms compared to EC (F>4.4). Finally, EC patients showed higher improvements in psychosocial functioning compared to LT and MLT (F=1.8). Conclusions Against common expectations, long-term, more chronically ill patients showed higher effects in basal cognitive functions compared to younger patients and patients without any active therapy (TAU). On the other hand, early-course patients had a greater potential to change in attribution, symptoms and psychosocial functioning. Consequently, more integrated therapy offers are also recommended for long-term course schizophrenia patients.
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BACKGROUND Several studies show yoga may benefit chronic pain management. We investigated the effect of a single yoga session on the perception of pain, measured by a standardized pain provocation test in healthy yoga participants while also comparing pain perception to participants' own expectations. MATERIALS AND METHODS Ninety yoga participants were recruited at hatha yoga schools in Switzerland. Pain perception was measured with a standardized algometric pain provocation test; i.e., a calibrated peg was applied for 10 seconds after which the participant rated pain intensity on a 0-10 numerical rating scale. The test was applied to the middle finger, ear lobe, and second toe before and after a 60-minute yoga session. RESULTS Sixty out of 90 (66.7%) yoga participants expected a reduced pain perception after the yoga session. However, 36 (40%) participants actually experienced less pain after compared to before the yoga session. But overall, pain perception statistically did not significantly change from before to after the yoga session at any of the three body locations assessed. The expectations and also the previous yoga experience did not significantly influence the participants' pain perception. CONCLUSIONS Regardless of the high positive expectations on the influence of yoga on pain, a single yoga session does not significantly influence pain perception induced by a pain provocation test. Hypoalgesic effects of yoga should be explained otherwise.
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Motivation plays a key role in successful entry into working life. Based on a cross-sectional and a one-year longitudinal study, we used a person-centered approach to explore work-related motivation (i.e., autonomous goals, positive affect, and occupational self-efficacy) among 577 students in 8th grade (Study 1) and 949 adolescents in vocational training (Study 2). Based on latent profile analysis, in both studies we identified four groups that were characterized by different levels of overall motivation and one group characterized by low positive affect and mean levels in autonomous goals and self-efficacy. Profiles characterized by high levels of motivation showed the highest levels of positive work expectations and goal engagement and the lowest levels of negative work expectations in Study 1 and the highest levels of person-job fit, work engagement, and job satisfaction in Study 2. Moreover, latent difference score analysis showed that motivational profiles predicted changes in person-job fit and work engagement across one year but not in job satisfaction. The results imply that career counselors should be aware of characteristic motivational patterns of clients that may require specific counseling approaches.
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Public preferences for policy are formed in a little-understood process that is not adequately described by traditional economic theory of choice. In this paper I suggest that U.S. aggregate support for health reform can be modeled as tradeoffs among a small number of behavioral values and the stage of policy development. The theory underlying the model is based on Samuelson, et al.'s (1986) work and Wilke's (1991) elaboration of it as the Greed/Efficiency/Fairness (GEF) hypothesis of motivation in the management of resource dilemmas, and behavioral economics informed by Kahneman and Thaler's prospect theory. ^ The model developed in this paper employs ordered probit econometric techniques applied to data derived from U.S. polls taken from 1990 to mid-2003 that measured support for health reform proposals. Outcome data are four-tiered Likert counts; independent variables are dummies representing the presence or absence of operationalizations of each behavioral variable, along with an integer representing policy process stage. Marginal effects of each independent variable predict how support levels change on triggering that variable. Model estimation results indicate a vanishingly small likelihood that all coefficients are zero and all variables have signs expected from model theory. ^ Three hypotheses were tested: support will drain from health reform policy as it becomes increasingly well-articulated and approaches enactment; reforms appealing to fairness through universal health coverage will enjoy a higher degree of support than those targeted more narrowly; health reforms calling for government operation of the health finance system will achieve lower support than those that do not. Model results support the first and last hypotheses. Contrary to expectations, universal health care proposals did not provide incremental support beyond those targeted to “deserving” populations—children, elderly, working families. In addition, loss of autonomy (e.g. restrictions on choice of care giver) is found to be the “third rail” of health reform with significantly-reduced support. When applied to a hypothetical health reform in which an employer-mandated Medical Savings Account policy is the centerpiece, the model predicts support that may be insufficient to enactment. These results indicate that the method developed in the paper may prove valuable to health policy designers. ^
Did Impending War in Europe Help Destroy the Gold Bloc in 1936? An Internal Inconsistency Hypothesis
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This paper investigates the gold bloc operated between France, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Belgium, especially over the period after the USA left the gold standard in March 1933 to its end in September 1936. It enquires into the effect of military-political developments in Germany and Italy on the sustainability of the gold bloc between its members. Juxtaposed is the view of leading political scientists, such as Henry Kissinger, who see impending war in Europe as deeply and adversely affecting psychology in Europe, and what may be called the standard "economists' view" that sees the demise of the gold bloc as being caused almost exclusively by economic factors. Developing concepts of external and internal inconsistency of the gold bloc, this investigation concludes that both economic and military-political developments played important roles in destroying the last vestiges of the gold standard.
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Recent monetary history has been characterized by monetary authorities which have been, alternatively hard and soft on inflation. In a vintage capital framework, investment decisions are not easily reversed. Therefore, expectations of policy as well as current policy are important to the investment decision. Here, a vintage capital model is used to assess the value of central bank credibility for a policy change. Policy in this model is assumed to be private information of the central banker. Agents learn about that policy which to study the ensuing transitional dynamics following a change in monetary policy regime.
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The transition to high school can be challenging for some adolescents, resulting in drops of academic functioning (Barber & Olsen, 2004; Smith, 2006). While changes in academic demands and the disparity between adolescent needs and the environmental characteristics of high school have both been cited as possible contributors to this decrease in academic and personal functioning (Barber & Olsen, 2004), it is possible that teachers may play an even larger role in undermining these students’ functioning, specifically through labeling. Although labeling, and how it can lead to self-fulfilling prophesies, is a concept that has been thoroughly researched and applied to the field of criminology and deviant behavior, it is the goal of this current study to investigate if labeling also occurs in the classroom setting and how such labels ultimately effect the academic potential of high school students.
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This paper develops a reduced form three-factor model which includes a liquidity proxy of market conditions which is then used to provide implicit prices. The model prices are then compared with observed market prices of credit default swaps to determine if swap rates adequately reflect market risks. The findings of the analysis illustrate the importance of liquidity in the valuation process. Moreover, market liquidity, a measure of investors. willingness to commit resources in the credit default swap (CDS) market, was also found to improve the valuation of investors. autonomous credit risk. Thus a failure to include a liquidity proxy could underestimate the implied autonomous credit risk. Autonomous credit risk is defined as the fractional credit risk which does not vary with changes in market risk and liquidity conditions.