Multivariate measurement error models based on scale mixtures of the skew-normal distribution

Scale mixtures of the skew-normal (SMSN) distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions that includes the skew-normal (SN) distribution as a special case. The main advantage of these classes of distributions is that they are easy to simulate and have a nice hierarchical representation facilitating easy implementation of the expectation-maximization algorithm for the maximum-likelihood estimation. In this paper, we assume an SMSN distribution for the unobserved value of the covariates and a symmetric scale mixtures of the normal distribution for the error term of the model. This provides a robust alternative to parameter estimation in multivariate measurement error models. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the SN, skew-t, skew-slash and skew-contaminated normal distributions. The results and methods are applied to a real data set.

A proposed Model for Country Branding : an experimental Application on Nigeria

In the era of globalization, countries compete with each other for attention, respect and trust of potential consumers, investors, tourists, media and governments of other nations. Branding is the most powerful tool that a nation can utilize for effective differentiation strategies and for creating competitive advantage over other nations. Unfortunately, not every nations or destination marketers have a broad understanding of the concept of branding and how a country can be successfully branded. Hence, this study has proposed a model that could be used as a valuable guide for country branding. Also the model is recommended for countries struggling with image crisis; on the mission to improve the image internationally. Nigeria is a good example of countries with image crisis; it is one of the most populated countries in the world with a population of about 160 million inhabitants and growth rate of 2.553percent annually. Despite the abundant resources (e.g. coal, petroleum, natural gas etc.) that the nation is endowed with, it is quite disappointing that the population below poverty line is still at the alarming rate of 70percent of the total population. The mismanagement and poor leadership of the nation characterised by corruption, fraud, embezzlement of public fund etc. has culminated into serious image crisis that is slowing down the potential for investment and economic growth. However, there has been series of image rebranding campaigns but no tangible achievement has been recorded. It is quite questionable though, if image rebranding will provide the kind of future that Nigeria envisaged, considering the socio-political situation and the economic imbalance; compounded by the obvious fact that the nation has no known brand. Therefore, this paper argues that there is need to redirect the effort invested on image rebranding to the creation of a unique and competitive brand for the country. It was established from the study that a nation’s brand is capable of improving the reputation of the nation as well as stimulate the expectation of the target audience. However, it was also established from the study that a wrong approach to branding could mislead the target audience and attract negative publicity. Hence, as a contribution of the study to the field of branding, a model was proposed as a functional guide for country branding. Also, considering the abysmal performance of Nigeria’s image in the international community and to strengthen the argument that brand creation is required for the country; an experimental application of the proposed model was conducted using Nigeria as the case country. The first phase of the model suggested a major improvement in the society; this is required to further enhance the strengths of the country and to motivate the much needed community participation and confidence in the brand creation. It is the conclusion of the study that a strong nation brand can offset the image problem if it is built on something concrete, genuine, and uniquely identifiable with the country, capable of connecting to the cognitive psychology of the target audience.

On Aspects of Mathematical Reasoning : Affect and Gender

This thesis explores two aspects of mathematical reasoning: affect and gender. I started by looking at the reasoning of upper secondary students when solving tasks. This work revealed that when not guided by an interviewer, algorithmic reasoning, based on memorising algorithms which may or may not be appropriate for the task, was predominant in the students reasoning. Given this lack of mathematical grounding in students reasoning I looked in a second study at what grounds they had for different strategy choices and conclusions. This qualitative study suggested that beliefs about safety, expectation and motivation were important in the central decisions made during task solving.  But are reasoning and beliefs gendered? The third study explored upper secondary school teachers conceptions about gender and students mathematical reasoning. In this study I found that upper secondary school teachers attributed gender symbols including insecurity, use of standard methods and imitative reasoning to girls and symbols such as multiple strategies especially on the calculator, guessing and chance-taking were assigned to boys. In the fourth and final study I found that students, both male and female, shared their teachers view of rather traditional feminities and masculinities. Remarkably however, this result did not repeat itself when students were asked to reflect on their own behaviour: there were some discrepancies between the traits the students ascribed as gender different and the traits they ascribed to themselves. Taken together the thesis suggests that, contrary to conceptions, girls and boys share many of the same core beliefs about mathematics, but much work is still needed if we should create learning environments that provide better opportunities for students to develop beliefs that guide them towards well-grounded mathematical reasoning. 

A reason to believe : beliefs as an influence on students task solving

Upper secondary students’ task solving reasoning was analysed, with a focus on what grounds they had for different strategy choices and conclusions. Beliefs were identified and connected with the reasoning that took place. The results indicate that beliefs have an impact on the central decisions made during task solving. Three themes stand out: safety, expectation and motivation.

Personalens förväntningar inför sammanslagning av förlossnings-, BB- och neonatalavdelningen och att samtidigt införa samvård : Kvalitativ studie med fokusgruppsintervjuer

Bakgrund: Anknytningen underlättas mellan barn och föräldrar om de kan vara tillsammans redan från förlossningen. Teamarbete förbättrar kvalitén och bidrar till helhetsperspektiv i vården. En god arbetsmiljö och ett gott samarbete mellan personal är viktigt för effektiviteten av samvård. Att undersöka personalens förväntningar inför ett nytt arbetssätt är betydelsefullt eftersom det kan avspegla sig i den vård som senare ges.Syftet med studien var att belysa personalens förväntningar inför sammanslagning av olika vårdavdelningar och att samtidigt införa samvård.Metoden var en kvalitativ metod med totalt 14 deltagare i tre fokusgruppsintervjuer. Datainsamlingen analyserades med en kvalitativ innehållsanalys.Resultatet sammanfattades med temat ”Tryggt och välkänt eller nytt och osäkert – förändringsarbetets balansgång” som beskrev personalens känslor inför sammanslagningen. Kategorierna ”Att få en bra miljö för föräldrar och personal”, ”Att samarbeta med familjen i fokus”, ”Att förena två kliniker och kulturer” och ”Att genomgå en arbetsplatsförändring” beskrev de förväntningar och farhågor personalen uttryckte.Slutsatser: Resultatet visade på förväntningar av att vård- och arbetsmiljö skulle förbättras samt att samarbetet mellan klinikerna skulle bli mer effektivt. Det framkom att det var av betydelse att ha fungerande informationsflöden, uppleva delaktighet samt ha en tydlig ledning i en genomgripande organisationsförändring.

Estimation of Parameters in Random Effect Models with Incidence Matrix Uncertainty

Random effect models have been widely applied in many fields of research. However, models with uncertain design matrices for random effects have been little investigated before. In some applications with such problems, an expectation method has been used for simplicity. This method does not include the extra information of uncertainty in the design matrix is not included. The closed solution for this problem is generally difficult to attain. We therefore propose an two-step algorithm for estimating the parameters, especially the variance components in the model. The implementation is based on Monte Carlo approximation and a Newton-Raphson-based EM algorithm. As an example, a simulated genetics dataset was analyzed. The results showed that the proportion of the total variance explained by the random effects was accurately estimated, which was highly underestimated by the expectation method. By introducing heuristic search and optimization methods, the algorithm can possibly be developed to infer the 'model-based' best design matrix and the corresponding best estimates.

Vår bästa tid är nu? : Om tidsuppfattning och politisk självförståelse

Our best time is now? On conception of time and political self-understanding This study regards time as a horizon for action and argues that conception of time has great implication for political self-understanding. In the study, the modern conception of time, with its orientation towards the future, is contrasted with the late modern conception of time, which is characterized by a de-legitimization of utopian thinking and by an orientation towards the present. Political action is changing, from a transformation of the present into the future, to a management of the present. In this situation the future is not perceived as something qualitatively different than present, but is, as Helga Nowotny puts it, reduced to an ‘extended present’. Or, to speak with Luhmann, the future is a ‘present future’ where only one ‘future present’ is conceivable. The future is in that sense increasingly closed. The paper argues that the current pragmatization of politics is partly due to changes in temporal representations, and suggests that more attention should be given to temporal semantics in political analysis.

Hamiltonian constraint analysis of vector field theories with spontaneous Lorentz symmetry breaking

Recent investigations of various quantum-gravity theories have revealed a variety of possible mechanisms that lead to Lorentz violation. One of the more elegant of these mechanisms is known as Spontaneous Lorentz Symmetry Breaking (SLSB), where a vector or tensor field acquires a nonzero vacuum expectation value. As a consequence of this symmetry breaking, massless Nambu-Goldstone modes appear with properties similar to the photon in Electromagnetism. This thesis considers the most general class of vector field theories that exhibit spontaneous Lorentz violation-known as bumblebee models-and examines their candidacy as potential alternative explanations of E&M, offering the possibility that Einstein-Maxwell theory could emerge as a result of SLSB rather than of local U(1) gauge invariance. With this aim we employ Dirac's Hamiltonian Constraint Analysis procedure to examine the constraint structures and degrees of freedom inherent in three candidate bumblebee models, each with a different potential function, and compare these results to those of Electromagnetism. We find that none of these models share similar constraint structures to that of E&M, and that the number of degrees of freedom for each model exceeds that of Electromagnetism by at least two, pointing to the potential existence of massive modes or propagating ghost modes in the bumblebee theories.

Social Media, Privacy, and the Academic Classroom

We live in a world full of social media and portable technology that allows for the effortless access to, and sharing of, information. While this constant connection can be viewed as a benefit by some, there have been recent, sometimes embarrassing, instances throughout the world that show just how quickly any expectation of privacy can be destroyed. From pictures of poorly dressed shoppers at a grocery store to customers recording interactions with their servers at restaurants, the internet is full of media (all with the potential to go viral) created and posted without consent of all parties captured. This risk to privacy is not just limited to retail and restaurants, as being in any situation amongst people puts you at risk, including being in an academic classroom. Anyone providing in-class instruction, be they professor or librarian, can be at risk for this type of violation of privacy. In addition, the students in the class are also at risk for being unwittingly captured by their classmates. To combat this, colleges and universities are providing recommendations to faculty regarding this issue, such as including suggested syllabus statements about classroom recording by students. In some instances, colleges and universities have instituted formal policies with strict penalties for violators. An overview of current privacy law as it relates to an academic setting is discussed as well as recent, newsworthy instances of student recording in the classroom and the resulting controversies. Additionally, there is a discussion highlighting various recommendations and formal policies that have been issued and adopted by colleges and universities around the country. Finally, advice is offered about what librarians can do to educate students, faculty, and staff about the privacy rights of others and the potential harm that could come from posting to social media and the open web images and video of others without their consent.

Previsibilidade de retorno das ações no mercado brasileiro, através da aplicação de modelo de valor presente com retornos esperados constantes num contexto de expectativas racionais

Através de dados financeiros de ações negociadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo, testa-se a validade do modelo de valor presente (MVP) com retornos esperados constantes ao longo do tempo (Campbell & Schiller, 1987). Esse modelo relaciona o preço de uma ação ao seu esperado fluxo de dividendos trazido a valor presente a uma taxa de desconto constante ao longo do tempo. Por trás desse modelo está a hipótese de expectativas racionais, bem como a hipótese de previsibilidade de preço futuro do ativo, através da inserção dos dividendos esperados no período seguinte. Nesse trabalho é realizada uma análise multivariada num arcabouço de séries temporais, utilizando a técnica de Auto-Regressões Vetoriais. Os resultados empíricos apresentados, embora inconclusivos, permitem apenas admitir que não é possível rejeitar completamente a hipótese de expectativas racionais para os ativos brasileiros.

A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series within a panel-data framework. Our key element is to employ the (feasible) bias-corrected average forecast. Using panel-data sequential asymptotics we show that it is potentially superior to other techniques in several contexts. In particular, it is asymptotically equivalent to the conditional expectation, i.e., has an optimal limiting mean-squared error. We also develop a zeromean test for the average bias and discuss the forecast-combination puzzle in small and large samples. Monte-Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the feasible bias-corrected average forecast in finite samples. An empirical exercise based upon data from a well known survey is also presented. Overall, theoretical and empirical results show promise for the feasible bias-corrected average forecast.

A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series within a panel-data framework. Our key element is to employ the (feasible) bias-corrected average forecast. Using panel-data sequential asymptotics we show that it is potentially superior to other techniques in several contexts. In particular, it is asymptotically equivalent to the conditional expectation, i.e., has an optimal limiting mean-squared error. We also develop a zeromean test for the average bias and discuss the forecast-combination puzzle in small and large samples. Monte-Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the feasible bias-corrected average forecast in finite samples. An empirical exercise, based upon data from a well known survey is also presented. Overall, these results show promise for the feasible bias-corrected average forecast.

Aprendizagem, racionalidade limitada e comportamento econômico

O objetivo desta pesquisa é discutir a idéia de aprendizagem em Economia. A idéia básica a ser considerada é que a hipótese das expectativas Racionais não é consistente com tal idéia e que a fim de incluí-la em nossa disciplina será necessário substituí-la por uma espécie do raciocínio indutivo. Será considerado também como tal raciocínio e pode ser aplicado com alguns modelos técnico e de política econômico.

O trabalho em equipes autogerenciadas e sua influência na motivação dos empregados

Nos últimos anos diversos autores vem afirmando que fatores como a autonomia e a interação humana estão relacionados a bons níveis de motivação no trabalho. Consideram ainda, que equipes autogerenciadas são capazes de reunir esses dois fatores, ou seja, envolvem autonomia, pois incentivam o autogerenciamento, e envolvem interação, pois pressupõem o relacionamento entre diferentes pessoas. Esta pesquisa procura trazer contribuição às Teorias existentes, analisando de que forma trabalho em equipes autogerenciadas influencia a motivação dos empregados. Para tanto, na primeira etapa do estudo foi realizada pesquisa bibliográfica, com o objetivo de coletar contribuições de diversos autores sobre o tema. Na segunda etapa, foi realizada pesquisa de campo, a fim de conhecer a experiência e reunir depoimentos de profissionais de diversas arcas de atuação. A análise dos resultados da pesquisa de campo, fundamentada nos dados bibliográficos, indicou que o trabalho em equipes autogerenciadas não apenas influenciou positivamente a motivação dos empregados que já tiveram esta experiência, como gerou boa expectativa naqueles que nunca tiveram a oportunidade de trabalhar cm tais equipes. Quanto as razões para esta influência positiva, destacaram-se o maior poder de decisão para o trabalhador e o incentivo ao desenvolvimento da criatividade.

Análise das práticas administrativas de uma fundação empresarial aberta

The goal of this work is to present a contribution to the critical analysis of the rationality that supports the action of the members of productive organizations, starting from a perspective of the man's emancipation in the ambit of the work. The focus of attention is related to the administrative practices of one of the largest Brazilian's private foundations that they were analyzed based on the distinction among instrumental and substantive rationality and of the theory of the communicative action. The main research method used was the 'participant observation' that allowed to the author to verify in loco the rationality that permeates the administrative practices of the researched Foundation. The importance of this study is in the fact that are scarce the studies about the management of nonprofit organizations. For increasing, every day, the emphasis that the society is giving to the third sector, for the expectation of its growth, so much in quantitative level as of influence degree about the people's life, and for placing in the position of offering answers and solutions for the problems that the State doesn't get to solve, the third sector and its organizations need a theoretical reference for its administration that is coherent with its emancipatory purpose. The results led to conclusions that alert the managers of the private foundations to review the practices adopted in the management of those organizations and stimulate the debate and the continuity of researches on the theme.