Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

Case study preparation: The whatsApp acquisition from Facebook

The purpose of this work project is to analyze the acquisition of WhatsApp from Facebook occurred on 19th February 2014. The main research has the aim to understand if the price tag of $19 billion paid by Mark Zuckerberg was fair. Along the reaction of Facebook’s EPS on the keydays after the purchase, a balanced assessment of the acquisition was obtained and discussed. Results suggest that the price tag could be reasonable. However, taking into account the industry in which the two companies operate, where competition is quite intense, Facebook should assess this deal in a longerterm perspective.

Design and characterization of novel biopolymeric structure using biocompatible ionic liquids

The main objective of this thesis was the development of polymeric structures from the dissolution of FucoPol, a bacterial exopolysaccharide (EPS), in a biocompatible ionic liquid, choline acetate. The FucoPol was produced by the bacteria Enterobacter A47 using glycerol as carbon source at controlled temperature and pH (30ºC and 7, respectively). At the end of 3 days it was produced 7 g/L of FucoPol. The net yield of Fucopol in glycerol (YP/S) was 0.22 g/g and the maximum productivity 2.37 g/L.d This polymer was characterized about its composition in sugars and acyl groups (by High-Performance Liquid Chromatography - HPLC), containing fucose (35 % mol), galactose (21 % mol), glucose (29 % mol), rhamnose (3% mol) and glucuronic acid (12% mol) as well as acetate (14.28 % mol), pyruvate (2.15 % mol) and succinate (1.80 % mol). Its content of water and ash was 15% p/p and 2% p/p, respectively, and the chemical bonds (determined by Infrared Spectroscopy - FT-IR) are consistent to the literature reports. However, due to limitations in Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) equipment it was not possible to determine the glass transition temperature. In turn, the ionic liquid showed the typical behavior of a Newtonian fluid, glass transition temperature (determined by DSC) -98.03ºC and density 1.1031 g/cm3. The study of chemical bonds by FT-IR showed that amount of water (8.80%) influenced the visualization of the bands predicted to in view of their chemical structure. After the dissolution of the FucoPol in the ionic liquid at different temperatures (50, 60, 80 and 100 ° C) it was promoted the removal of this by the phase inversion method using deionized water as a solvent, followed by drying in an oven at 70 ° C. The mixtures before and after the phase inversion method were characterized through the studies mentioned above. In order to explore possible application field’s biocompatibility assays and collage on balsa wood tests were performed. It was found that the process of washing with water by the phase inversion method was not totally effective in removing the biocompatible ionic liquid, since all FucoPol – IL mixtures still contained ionic liquid in their composition as can be seen by the DSC results and FT-IR. In addition, washing the mixtures with water significantly altered the composition of FucoPol. However, these mixtures, that developed a viscous behavior typical of a non-Newtonian fluid (shear-thinning), have the potential to be applied in the biomedical field as well as biological glues.

Engineered MRI nanoprobes based on superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles

This project aimed to engineer new T2 MRI contrast agents for cell labeling based on formulations containing monodisperse iron oxide magnetic nanoparticles (MNP) coated with natural and synthetic polymers. Monodisperse MNP capped with hydrophobic ligands were synthesized by a thermal decomposition method, and further stabilized in aqueous media with citric acid or meso-2,3-dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA) through a ligand exchange reaction. Hydrophilic MNP-DMSA, with optimal hydrodynamic size distribution, colloidal stability and magnetic properties, were used for further functionalization with different coating materials. A covalent coupling strategy was devised to bind the biopolymer gum Arabic (GA) onto MNPDMSA and produce an efficient contrast agent, which enhanced cellular uptake in human colorectal carcinoma cells (HCT116 cell line) compared to uncoated MNP-DMSA. A similar protocol was employed to coat MNP-DMSA with a novel biopolymer produced by a biotechnological process, the exopolysaccharide (EPS) Fucopol. Similar to MNP-DMSA-GA, MNP-DMSA-EPS improved cellular uptake in HCT116 cells compared to MNP-DMSA. However, MNP-DMSA-EPS were particularly efficient towards the neural stem/progenitor cell line ReNcell VM, for which a better iron dose-dependent MRI contrast enhancement was obtained at low iron concentrations and short incubation times. A combination of synthetic and biological coating materials was also explored in this project, to design a dynamic tumortargeting nanoprobe activated by the acidic pH of tumors. The pH-dependent affinity pair neutravidin/iminobiotin, was combined in a multilayer architecture with the synthetic polymers poy-L-lysine and poly(ethylene glycol) and yielded an efficient MRI nanoprobe with ability to distinguish cells cultured in acidic pH conditions form cells cultured in physiological pH conditions.

Risk of employing an evolvable production system

Nowadays manufacturing companies are facing a more challenging environment due to the unpredictability of the markets in order to survive. Enterprises need to keep innovating and deliver products with new internal or external characteristics. There are strategies and solutions, to different organisational level from strategic to operational, when technology is growing faster in operational level, more specifically in manufacturing system. This means that companies have to deal with the changes of the emergent manufacturing systems while it can be expensive and not easy to be implement. An agile manufacturing system can help to cope with the markets changeability. Evolvable Production Systems (EPS) is an emergent paradigm which aims to bring new solutions to deal with changeability. The proposed paradigm is characterised by modularity and intends to introduce high flexibility and dynamism at shop floor level through the use of the evolution of new computational devices and technology. This new approach brings to enterprises the ability to plug and unplug new devices and allowing fast reformulation of the production line without reprogramming. There is no doubt about the advantages and benefits of this emerging technology but the feasibility and applicability is still under questioned. Most researches in this area are focused on technical side, explaining the advantages of those systems while there are no sufficient works discussing the implementation risks from different perspective, including business owner. The main objective of this work is to propose a methodology and model to identify, classify and measure potential risk associated with an implementation of this emergent paradigm. To quantify the proposed comprehensive risk model, an Intelligent Decision system is developed employing Fuzzy Inference System to deal with the knowledge of experts, as there are no historical data and sufficient research on this area. The result can be the vulnerability assessment of implementing EPS technology in manufacturing companies when the focus is more on SMEs. The present dissertation used the experts’ knowledge and experiences, who were involved in FP7 project IDEAS, which is one of the leading projects in this area.

Modeling and optimization of extracellular polysaccharides production by Enterobacter A47

Polysaccharides are gaining increasing attention as potential environmental friendly and sustainable building blocks in many fields of the (bio)chemical industry. The microbial production of polysaccharides is envisioned as a promising path, since higher biomass growth rates are possible and therefore higher productivities may be achieved compared to vegetable or animal polysaccharides sources. This Ph.D. thesis focuses on the modeling and optimization of a particular microbial polysaccharide, namely the production of extracellular polysaccharides (EPS) by the bacterial strain Enterobacter A47. Enterobacter A47 was found to be a metabolically versatile organism in terms of its adaptability to complex media, notably capable of achieving high growth rates in media containing glycerol byproduct from the biodiesel industry. However, the industrial implementation of this production process is still hampered due to a largely unoptimized process. Kinetic rates from the bioreactor operation are heavily dependent on operational parameters such as temperature, pH, stirring and aeration rate. The increase of culture broth viscosity is a common feature of this culture and has a major impact on the overall performance. This fact complicates the mathematical modeling of the process, limiting the possibility to understand, control and optimize productivity. In order to tackle this difficulty, data-driven mathematical methodologies such as Artificial Neural Networks can be employed to incorporate additional process data to complement the known mathematical description of the fermentation kinetics. In this Ph.D. thesis, we have adopted such an hybrid modeling framework that enabled the incorporation of temperature, pH and viscosity effects on the fermentation kinetics in order to improve the dynamical modeling and optimization of the process. A model-based optimization method was implemented that enabled to design bioreactor optimal control strategies in the sense of EPS productivity maximization. It is also critical to understand EPS synthesis at the level of the bacterial metabolism, since the production of EPS is a tightly regulated process. Methods of pathway analysis provide a means to unravel the fundamental pathways and their controls in bioprocesses. In the present Ph.D. thesis, a novel methodology called Principal Elementary Mode Analysis (PEMA) was developed and implemented that enabled to identify which cellular fluxes are activated under different conditions of temperature and pH. It is shown that differences in these two parameters affect the chemical composition of EPS, hence they are critical for the regulation of the product synthesis. In future studies, the knowledge provided by PEMA could foster the development of metabolically meaningful control strategies that target the EPS sugar content and oder product quality parameters.

Comparing different methods to measure biofilm thickness: the techniques are: optical coherence tomography, confocal laser scanning microscopy and low load compression test

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Biomédica (área de especialização em Engenharia Clínica)

Bioactive ceramics for tissue engineering and regenerative medicine derived from marine sponges

Publicado em "Journal of tissue engineering and regenerative medicine". Vol. 8, suppl. s1 (2014)

Avaliação externa de escolas: efeitos no desenvolvimento de projetos de educação para a saúde

Dissertação de mestrado em Ciências da Educação (área de especialização em Desenvolvimento Curricular e Inovação Educativa)

Intra-His bundle block: clinical, electrocardiographic, and electrophysiologic characteristics

OBJECTIVE: To assess the clinical, electrocardiographic, and electrophysiologic characteristics of patients (pt) with intra-His bundle block undergoing an electrophysiologic study (EPS). METHODS: We analyzed the characteristics of 16 pt with second-degree atrioventricular block and symptoms of syncope or dyspnea, or both, undergoing conventional EPS. RESULTS: Intra-His bundle block was documented in 16 pt during an EPS. In 15 (94%) pt, the atrioventricular block was recorded in sinus rhythm; 4 (25%) pt had intra-His Wenckebach phenomenon, which correlated with Mobitz I (MI) atrioventricular block on the electrocardiogram. Seven (44%) pt had 2:1 atrioventricular block, 2 of whom were asymptomatic (12.5%). One (6%) pt had intra- and infra-His bundle block. Clinically, 11 (68%) pt had syncope or presyncope, 3 (18%) had dyspnea on exertion, and 2 (12.5%) were asymptomatic. Eight (50%) pt had bundle-branch block as follows: 4 (25%) pt had left bundle-branch block, and 4 (25%) had right bundle-branch block. Left anterosuperior divisional block was observed in 3 pt (19%), 2 of whom with associated right bundle-branch block. CONCLUSION: Intra-His bundle block was observed in 11% of the pt with second-degree atrioventricular block, syncope or presyncope, or both, it being the most frequent clinical presentation. Intra-His bundle block was more common in the elderly (> 60 years) and among females. The most frequent electrocardiographic presentations were second-degree Mobitz I or type 2:1 atrioventricular block.

Value of the Qrs-T Angle in Predicting the Induction of Ventricular Tachyarrhythmias in Patients with Chagas Disease

Background:The QRS-T angle correlates with prognosis in patients with heart failure and coronary artery disease, reflected by an increase in mortality proportional to an increase in the difference between the axes of the QRS complex and T wave in the frontal plane. The value of this correlation in patients with Chagas heart disease is currently unknown.Objective:Determine the correlation of the QRS-T angle and the risk of induction of ventricular tachycardia / ventricular fibrillation (VT / VF) during electrophysiological study (EPS) in patients with Chagas disease.Methods:Case-control study at a tertiary center. Patients without induction of VT / VF on EPS were used as controls. The QRS-T angle was categorized as normal (0-105º), borderline (105-135º) or abnormal (135-180º). Differences between groups for continuous variables were analyzed with the t test or Mann-Whitney test, and for categorical variables with Fisher's exact test. P values < 0.05 were considered significant.Results:Of 116 patients undergoing EPS, 37.9% were excluded due to incomplete information / inactive records or due to the impossibility to correctly calculate the QRS-T angle (presence of left bundle branch block and atrial fibrillation). Of 72 patients included in the study, 31 induced VT / VF on EPS. Of these, the QRS-T angle was normal in 41.9%, borderline in 12.9% and abnormal in 45.2%. Among patients without induction of VT / VF on EPS, the QRS-T angle was normal in 63.4%, borderline in 14.6% and abnormal in 17.1% (p = 0.04). When compared with patients with normal QRS-T angle, those with abnormal angle had a fourfold higher risk of inducing ventricular tachycardia / ventricular fibrillation on EPS [odds ratio (OR) 4; confidence interval (CI) 1.298-12.325; p = 0.028]. After adjustment for other variables such as age, ejection fraction (EF) and QRS size, there was a trend for the abnormal QRS-T angle to identify patients with increased risk of inducing VT / VF during EPS (OR 3.95; CI 0.99-15.82; p = 0.052). The EF also emerged as a predictor of induction of VT / VF: for each point increase in EF, there was a 4% reduction in the rate of sustained ventricular arrhythmia on EPS.Conclusions:Changes in the QRS-T angle and decreases in EF were associated with an increased risk of induction of VT / VF on EPS.

Stepwise evaluation of unexplained syncope in a large ambulatory population.

BACKGROUND: Up to 60% of syncopal episodes remain unexplained. We report the results of a standardized, stepwise evaluation of patients referred to an ambulatory clinic for unexplained syncope. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 939 consecutive patients referred for unexplained syncope, who underwent a standardized evaluation, including history, physical examination, electrocardiogram, head-up tilt testing (HUTT), carotid sinus massage (CSM) and hyperventilation testing (HYV). Echocardiogram and stress test were performed when underlying heart disease was initially suspected. Electrophysiological study (EPS) and implantable loop recorder (ILR) were used only in patients with underlying structural heart disease or major unexplained syncope. We identified a cause of syncope in 66% of patients, including 27% vasovagal, 14% psychogenic, 6% arrhythmias, and 6% hypotension. Noninvasive testing identified 92% and invasive testing an additional 8% of the causes. HUTT yielded 38%, CSM 28%, HYV 49%, EPS 22%, and ILR 56% of diagnoses. On average, patients with arrhythmic causes were older, had a lower functional capacity, longer P-wave duration, and presented with fewer prodromes than patients with vasovagal or psychogenic syncope. CONCLUSIONS: A standardized stepwise evaluation emphasizing noninvasive tests yielded 2/3 of causes in patients referred to an ambulatory clinic for unexplained syncope. Neurally mediated and psychogenic mechanisms were behind >50% of episodes, while cardiac arrhythmias were uncommon. Sudden syncope, particularly in older patients with functional limitations or a prolonged P-wave, suggests an arrhythmic cause.

Functional and histopathological identification of the respiratory failure in a DMSXL transgenic mouse model of myotonic dystrophy.

Acute and chronic respiratory failure is one of the major and potentially life-threatening features in individuals with myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1). Despite several clinical demonstrations showing respiratory problems in DM1 patients, the mechanisms are still not completely understood. This study was designed to investigate whether the DMSXL transgenic mouse model for DM1 exhibits respiratory disorders and, if so, to identify the pathological changes underlying these respiratory problems. Using pressure plethysmography, we assessed the breathing function in control mice and DMSXL mice generated after large expansions of the CTG repeat in successive generations of DM1 transgenic mice. Statistical analysis of breathing function measurements revealed a significant decrease in the most relevant respiratory parameters in DMSXL mice, indicating impaired respiratory function. Histological and morphometric analysis showed pathological changes in diaphragmatic muscle of DMSXL mice, characterized by an increase in the percentage of type I muscle fibers, the presence of central nuclei, partial denervation of end-plates (EPs) and a significant reduction in their size, shape complexity and density of acetylcholine receptors, all of which reflect a possible breakdown in communication between the diaphragmatic muscles fibers and the nerve terminals. Diaphragm muscle abnormalities were accompanied by an accumulation of mutant DMPK RNA foci in muscle fiber nuclei. Moreover, in DMSXL mice, the unmyelinated phrenic afferents are significantly lower. Also in these mice, significant neuronopathy was not detected in either cervical phrenic motor neurons or brainstem respiratory neurons. Because EPs are involved in the transmission of action potentials and the unmyelinated phrenic afferents exert a modulating influence on the respiratory drive, the pathological alterations affecting these structures might underlie the respiratory impairment detected in DMSXL mice. Understanding mechanisms of respiratory deficiency should guide pharmaceutical and clinical research towards better therapy for the respiratory deficits associated with DM1.

Médecine de l'addiction: naissance d'une nouvelle discipline

Les addictions ont fortement consolidé leur place dans le champ de la médecine à la fin du 20e siècle parce que la certitude de leurs fondements neurobiologiques était désormais acquise et que les preuves de l'efficacité des stratégies de prévention et de traitement étaient suffisantes. La médecine de l'addiction couvre un champ très large de l'activité médicale allant de la prévention de l'usage à risque, en passant par le dépistage des formes peu sévères de dépendance au traitement des formes les plus graves, chroniques et invalidantes. Cette activité médicale prend place dans une grande diversité de lieux de soins, en médecine de premier recours, particulièrement dans les cabinets de médecine de famille, mais aussi aux urgences et en pédiatrie. La médecine de l'addiction est très présente en psychiatrie où ses formes sont souvent sévères. Malgré cela, aujourd'hui seul un patient sur dix touché par une problématique d'addiction est traité. C'est la raison pour laquelle la Suisse, comme c'est le cas aux Etats-Unis et aux Pays-Bas par exemple, doit se doter d'un système promouvant une médecine de l'addiction à «large spectre», permettant d'identifier et de traiter la grande diversité des troubles rencontrés dans les lieux de soins les plus touchés. En Suisse, les médecins sont actuellement insuffisamment préparés pour assumer ce rôle. C'est aux disciplines concernées de proposer des filières de formation. Cette stratégie contribuera à améliorer les compétences de l'ensemble du corps médical dans ce domaine, avec pour conséquence d'offrir au plus grand nombre de patients touchés par les addictions les traitements les plus efficaces

Thyroid hormone enhances transected axonal regeneration and muscle reinnervation following rat sciatic nerve injury.

Improvement of nerve regeneration and functional recovery following nerve injury is a challenging problem in clinical research. We have already shown that following rat sciatic nerve transection, the local administration of triiodothyronine (T3) significantly increased the number and the myelination of regenerated axons. Functional recovery is a sum of the number of regenerated axons and reinnervation of denervated peripheral targets. In the present study, we investigated whether the increased number of regenerated axons by T3-treatment is linked to improved reinnervation of hind limb muscles. After transection of rat sciatic nerves, silicone or biodegradable nerve guides were implanted and filled with either T3 or phosphate buffer solution (PBS). Neuromuscular junctions (NMJs) were analyzed on gastrocnemius and plantar muscle sections stained with rhodamine alpha-bungarotoxin and neurofilament antibody. Four weeks after surgery, most end-plates (EPs) of operated limbs were still denervated and no effect of T3 on muscle reinnervation was detected at this stage of nerve repair. In contrast, after 14 weeks of nerve regeneration, T3 clearly enhanced the reinnervation of gastrocnemius and plantar EPs, demonstrated by significantly higher recovery of size and shape complexity of reinnervated EPs and also by increased acetylcholine receptor (AChRs) density on post synaptic membranes compared to PBS-treated EPs. The stimulating effect of T3 on EP reinnervation is confirmed by a higher index of compound muscle action potentials recorded in gastrocnemius muscles. In conclusion, our results provide for the first time strong evidence that T3 enhances the restoration of NMJ structure and improves synaptic transmission.