Simulation-based estimation

In this paper, I present a number of leading examples in the empirical literature that use simulation-based estimation methods. For each example, I describe the model, why simulation is needed, and how to simulate the relevant object. There is a section on simulation methods and another on simulations-based estimation methods. The paper concludes by considering the significance of each of the examples discussed a commenting on potential future areas of interest.

Semiparametric estimation of count regression models

This paper develops a semiparametric estimation approach for mixed count regression models based on series expansion for the unknown density of the unobserved heterogeneity. We use the generalized Laguerre series expansion around a gamma baseline density to model unobserved heterogeneity in a Poisson mixture model. We establish the consistency of the estimator and present a computational strategy to implement the proposed estimation techniques in the standard count model as well as in truncated, censored, and zero-inflated count regression models. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the finite sample behavior of the estimator is quite good. The paper applies the method to a model of individual shopping behavior. © 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

On governance structures for the cloud computing services and assessing their effectiveness

This research suggests information technology (IT) governance structures to manage the cloud computing services. The interest in acquiring IT resources as a utility from the cloud computing environment is gaining momentum. The cloud computing services present organizations with opportunities to manage their IT expenditure on an ongoing basis, and access to modern IT resources to innovate and manage their continuity. However, the cloud computing services are no silver bullet. Organizations would need to have appropriate governance structures and policies in place to manage the cloud computing services. The subsequent decisions from these governance structures will ensure the effective management of the cloud computing services. This management will facilitate a better fit of the cloud computing services into organizations’ existing processes to achieve the business (process-level) and the financial (firm-level) objectives. Using a triangulation approach, we suggest four governance structures for managing the cloud computing services. These structures are a chief cloud officer, a cloud management committee, a cloud service facilitation centre, and a cloud relationship centre. We also propose that these governance structures would relate directly to organizations cloud computing services-related business objectives, and indirectly to cloud computing services-related financial objectives. Perceptive field survey data from actual and prospective cloud computing service adopters suggest that the suggested governance structures would contribute directly to cloud computing-related business objectives and indirectly to cloud computing-related financial objectives.

The cost-effectiveness of total laparoscopic hysterectomy compared to total abdominal hysterectomy for the treatment of early stage endometrial cancer

Objective To summarise how costs and health benefits will change with the adoption of total laparoscopic hysterectomy compared to total abdominal hysterectomy for the treatment of early stage endometrial cancer. Design Cost-effectiveness modelling using the information from a randomised controlled trial. Participants Two hypothetical modelled cohorts of 1000 individuals undergoing total laparoscopic hysterectomy and total abdominal hysterectomy. Outcome measures Surgery costs; hospital bed days used; total healthcare costs; quality-adjusted life years; and net monetary benefits. Results For 1000 individuals receiving total laparoscopic hysterectomy surgery, the costs were $509 575 higher, 3548 hospital fewer bed days were used and total health services costs were reduced by $3 746 221. There were 39.13 more quality-adjusted life years for a 5 year period following surgery. Conclusions The adoption of total laparoscopic hysterectomy is almost certainly a good decision for health services policy makers. There is 100% probability that it will be cost saving to health services, a 86.8% probability that it will increase health benefits and a 99.5% chance that it returns net monetary benefits greater than zero.

Long-term exploration and tours for energy constrained robots with online proprioceptive traversability estimation

This paper is concerned with how a localised and energy-constrained robot can maximise its time in the field by taking paths and tours that minimise its energy expenditure. A significant component of a robot's energy is expended on mobility and is a function of terrain traversability. We estimate traversability online from data sensed by the robot as it moves, and use this to generate maps, explore and ultimately converge on minimum energy tours of the environment. We provide results of detailed simulations and parameter studies that show the efficacy of this approach for a robot moving over terrain with unknown traversability as well as a number of a priori unknown hard obstacles.

Determining the material properties for heavily over-consolidated bagasse through parameter estimation

A better understanding of the behaviour of prepared cane and bagasse, and the ability to model the mechanical behaviour of bagasse as it is squeezed in a milling unit to extract juice, would help identify how to improve the current process. For example, there are opportunities to decrease bagasse moisture from a milling unit. Also, the behaviour of bagasse in chutes is poorly understood. Previous investigations have shown that juice flow through bagasse obeys Darcy’s permeability law, that the grip of the rough surface of the grooves on the bagasse can be represented by the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion for soils, and that the internal mechanical behaviour of the bagasse is critical state behaviour similar to that for sand and clay. Progress has been made in the last ten years towards implementing a mechanical model for bagasse in finite element software. The objective has been to be able to simulate simple mechanical loading conditions measured in the laboratory, which, when combined together, have a high probability of reproducing the complicated stress conditions in a milling unit. This paper reports on the successful simulation of part of the fifth and final (and most challenging) loading condition, the shearing of heavily over-consolidated bagasse, and determining material property values through the use of powerful and free parameter estimation software.

Using informative priors in the estimation of mixtures over time with application to aerosol particle size distributions

The issue of using informative priors for estimation of mixtures at multiple time points is examined. Several different informative priors and an independent prior are compared using samples of actual and simulated aerosol particle size distribution (PSD) data. Measurements of aerosol PSDs refer to the concentration of aerosol particles in terms of their size, which is typically multimodal in nature and collected at frequent time intervals. The use of informative priors is found to better identify component parameters at each time point and more clearly establish patterns in the parameters over time. Some caveats to this finding are discussed.

Improving the accuracy of mine site water balances through improved estimation of runoff volumes

A mine site water balance is important for communicating information to interested stakeholders, for reporting on water performance, and for anticipating and mitigating water-related risks through water use/demand forecasting. Gaining accuracy over the water balance is therefore crucial for sites to achieve best practice water management and to maintain their social license to operate. For sites that are located in high rainfall environments the water received to storage dams through runoff can represent a large proportion of the overall inputs to site; inaccuracies in these flows can therefore lead to inaccuracies in the overall site water balance. Hydrological models that estimate runoff flows are often incorporated into simulation models used for water use/demand forecasting. The Australian Water Balance Model (AWBM) is one example that has been widely applied in the Australian context. However, the calibration of AWBM in a mining context can be challenging. Through a detailed case study, we outline an approach that was used to calibrate and validate AWBM at a mine site. Commencing with a dataset of monitored dam levels, a mass balance approach was used to generate an observed runoff sequence. By incorporating a portion of this observed dataset into the calibration routine, we achieved a closer fit between the observed vs. simulated dataset compared with the base case. We conclude by highlighting opportunities for future research to improve the calibration fit through improving the quality of the input dataset. This will ultimately lead to better models for runoff prediction and thereby improve the accuracy of mine site water balances.

Organisational factors that drive fundraising effectiveness in Australian health charities

This research sought to explore organisational factors that drive successful fundraising. Drawing on Strategic Management theory, this qualitative study examined the key intraorganisational factors that organisations develop to be effective at fundraising within the context of extraorganisational factors that can affect fundraising effectiveness. In this way, it helps build a fundraising effectiveness theory. The findings from this study afford leaders of nonprofits an opportunity to reflect on their reasons for pursuing fundraising as an income stream, their level of understanding of fundraising, the degree of investment they are willing to make and the critical leadership required by the CEO.

Stop and revive? The effectiveness of nap and active rest breaks for reducing driver sleepiness

Objectives The purpose for this study was to determine the relative benefit of nap and active rest breaks for reducing driver sleepiness. Methods Participants were 20 healthy young adults (20-25 years), including 8 males and 12 females. A counterbalanced within-subjects design was used such that each participant completed both conditions on separate occasions, a week apart. The effects of the countermeasures were evaluated by established physiological (EEG theta and alpha absolute power), subjective (Karolinska Sleepiness Scale), and driving performance measures (Hazard Perception Task). Participants woke at 5am, and undertook a simulated driving task for two hours; each participant then had either a 15-minute nap opportunity or a 15-minute active rest break that included 10 minutes of brisk walking, followed by another hour of simulated driving. Results The nap break reduced EEG theta and alpha absolute power and eventually reduced subjective sleepiness levels. In contrast, the active rest break did not reduce EEG theta and alpha absolute power levels with the power levels eventually increasing. An immediate reduction of subjective sleepiness was observed, with subjective sleepiness increasing during the final hour of simulated driving. No difference was found between the two breaks for hazard perception performance. Conclusions Only the nap break produced a significant reduction in physiological sleepiness. The immediate reductions of subjective sleepiness following the active rest break could leave drivers with erroneous perceptions of their sleepiness, particularly as physiological sleepiness continued to increase after the break.

The effectiveness of workshops as managerial learning opportunities

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effectiveness of workshops as a learning tool for small business owner‐managers (SBO‐Ms). It aims to concentrate on workshops delivered over 18 months from January 2007 to July 2008 as part of several publicly‐funded small business development programmes in two Australian local government areas (LGAs). Design/methodology/approach Effectiveness is measured in terms of meeting the overarching learning needs and expectations of participants in the context of the programme goals. The paper analyses data gathered from workshop participants either post‐workshop, in later focus groups or through a questionnaire as well as additional feedback from participants and the organisers' reflections. The thematic analysis is organised through an analogy of “going shopping”, where the SBO‐M shopper is buying “learning” when they attend a workshop. Findings Understanding motivation to participate or the “what's in it for me” is important as SBO‐Ms tend to be reluctant, resist or fail to engage with externally sponsored business support initiatives. Workshops were valued for the “space” they create to reflect on practice. For many SBO‐Ms, content “comes alive” with discussion while networking helps reduce the isolation SBO‐Ms can feel. Practical implications The shopping analogy suggests workshops must cater for purposeful shoppers as well as browsers, while interaction with others in the workshop is critical to realising the value of workshops. Originality/value Knowing whether, and how, workshops deliver learning can help to better target and refine these types of support initiatives to ensure they provide positive outcomes for individuals, organisations and economies.

Effectiveness of policy against illegal disposal of waste

Our objective is to analyze the effectiveness, against the illegal disposal of waste, of a licensing system that has been introduced in a waste management policy. We theoretically find enforcement leverage in the licensing system, and then examine the theoretical result empirically. The results suggest that extending liability to disposers, which forms the basis of the enforcement leverage, deters illegal disposal more effectively than increasing penalties for illegal disposal. We also obtain evidence of transboundary movement of illegal disposal, and find how the court determines penalties for illegal disposal.

On the effectiveness of a license scheme for E-waste recycling : the challenge of China and India

It is well known that China and India have been recycling centers of WEEE, especially printed circuit boards, and that serious environmental pollution in these countries has been generated by improper recycling methods. After the governments of China and India banned improper recycling by the informal sector, improper recycling activities spread to other places. Then, these governments changed their policies to one of promoting proper recycling by introducing a scheme, under which E-waste recycling requires a license issued by the government. In this paper, the effectiveness of that license scheme is examined by means of an economic model. It can be shown that the license scheme can work effectively only if disposers of E-waste have a responsibility to sell E-waste to license holders. Our results run counter to the idea that international E-waste trade should be banned and provide an alternative solution to the problem.

Exploring the properties of macroscopic fundamental diagram : analysing Brisbane urban network

This thesis explored traffic characteristics at the aggregate level for area-wide traffic monitoring of large urban area. It focused on three aspects: understanding a macroscopic network performance under real-time traffic information provision, measuring traffic performance of a signalised arterial network using available data sets, and discussing network zoning for monitoring purposes in the case of Brisbane, Australia. This work presented the use of probe vehicle data for estimating traffic state variables, and illustrated dynamic features of regional traffic performance of Brisbane. The results confirmed the viability and effectiveness of area-wide traffic monitoring.

Stature estimation of a contemporary Australian sub-population: An evaluation of the Trotter and Gleser method using computed tomography of the femur

Utilising computed tomography scans to allow a virtual analysis of three-dimensional reconstructions of the femur, this project confirms that the traditional 1952 Trotter and Gleser stature estimation equations are inapplicable for a contemporary Queensland population. Therefore, this study introduces modern stature estimation equations for femoral length and fragmentary femoral remains using Bayesian statistics for application in forensic anthropological casework. In addition, it was found that caution needs to be applied when comparing estimated stature to reported stature on the missing persons database due to inaccuracy in Queensland drivers' licences.