Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed for differences between impact models. Projections of change from a baseline period (1981-2010) to the future (2070-2099) from 12 impacts models which contributed to the hydrological and biomes sectors of ISI-MIP were studied. The biome models differed from the hydrological models by the inclusion of CO2 impacts and most also included a dynamic vegetation distribution. The biome and hydrological models agreed on the sign of runoff change for most regions of the world. However, in West Africa, the hydrological models projected drying, and the biome models a moistening. The biome models tended to produce larger increases and smaller decreases in regionally averaged runoff than the hydrological models, although there is large inter-model spread. The timing of runoff change was similar, but there were differences in magnitude, particularly at peak runoff. The impact of vegetation distribution change was much smaller than the projected change over time, while elevated CO2 had an effect as large as the magnitude of change over time projected by some models in some regions. The effect of CO2 on runoff was not consistent across the models, with two models showing increases and two decreases. There was also more spread in projections from the runs with elevated CO2 than with constant CO2. The biome models which gave increased runoff from elevated CO2 were also those which differed most from the hydrological models. Spatially, regions with most difference between model types tended to be projected to have most effect from elevated CO2, and seasonal differences were also similar, so elevated CO2 can partly explain the differences between hydrological and biome model runoff change projections. Therefore, this shows that a range of impact models should be considered to give the full range of uncertainty in impacts studies.

The dynamic effects of age-related stereotype threat on explicit and implicit memory performance in older adults

While an awareness of age-related changes in memory may help older adults gain insight into their own cognitive abilities, it may also have a negative impact on memory performance through a mechanism of stereotype threat (ST). The consequence of ST is under-performance in abilities related to the stereotype. Here, we examined the degree to which explicit and implicit memory were affected by ST across a wide age-range. We found that explicit memory was affected by ST, but only in an Early-Aging group (mean age 67.83), and not in a Later-Aging group (mean age 84.59). Implicit memory was not affected in either the Early or Later Aging group. These results demonstrate that ST for age-related memory decline affects memory processes requiring controlled retrieval while sparing item encoding. Furthermore, this form of ST appears to dissipate as aging progresses. These results have implications for understanding psychological development across the span of aging.

Ionospheric and geomagnetic responses to changes in IMF B_Z: a superposed epoch study

Superposed epoch studies have been carried out in order to determine the ionospheric response at mid-latitudes to southward turnings of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). This is compared with the geomagnetic response, as seen in the indices K p, AE and Dst. The solar wind, IMF and geomagnetic data used were hourly averages from the years 1967–1989 and thus cover a full 22-year cycle in the solar magnetic field. These data were divided into subsets, determined by the magnitudes of the southward turnings and the concomitant increase in solar wind pressure. The superposed epoch studies were carried out using the time of the southward turning as time zero. The response of the mid-latitude ionosphere is studied by looking at the F-layer critical frequencies, f o F2, from hourly soundings by the Slough ionosonde and their deviation from the monthly median values, δf o F2. For the southward turnings with a change in B z of δB z > 11.5 nT accompanied by a solar wind dynamic pressure P exceeding 5 nPa, the F region critical frequency, f o F2, shows a marked decrease, reaching a minimum value about 20 h after the southward turning. This recovers to pre-event values over the subsequent 24 h, on average. The Dst index shows the classic storm-time decrease to about −60 nT. Four days later, the index has still to fully recover and is at about −25 nT. Both the K p and AE indices show rises before the southward turnings, when the IMF is strongly northward but the solar wind dynamic pressure is enhanced. The average AE index does register a clear isolated pulse (averaging 650 nT for 2 h, compared with a background peak level of near 450 nT at these times) showing enhanced energy deposition at high latitudes in substorms but, like K p, remains somewhat enhanced for several days, even after the average IMF has returned to zero after 1 day. This AE background decays away over several days as the Dst index recovers, indicating that there is some contamination of the currents observed at the AE stations by the continuing enhanced equatorial ring current. For data averaged over all seasons, the critical frequencies are depressed at Slough by 1.3 MHz, which is close to the lower decile of the overall distribution of δf o Fl values. Taking 30-day periods around summer and winter solstice, the largest depression is 1.6 and 1.2 MHz, respectively. This seasonal dependence is confirmed by a similar study for a Southern Hemisphere station, Argentine Island, giving peak depressions of 1.8 MHz and 0.5 MHz for summer and winter. For the subset of turnings where δB z > 11.5 nT and P ≤ 5 nPa, the response of the geomagnetic indices is similar but smaller, while the change in δf o F2 has all but disappeared. This confirms that the energy deposited at high latitudes, which leads to the geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances following a southward turning of the IMF, increases with the energy density (dynamic pressure) of the solar wind flow. The magnitude of all responses are shown to depend on δB z . At Slough, the peak depression always occurs when Slough rotates into the noon sector. The largest ionospheric response is for southward turnings seen between 15–21 UT.

Flux transfer events at the dayside magnetopause: transient reconnection or magnetosheath dynamic pressure pulses?

The suggestion is discussed that characteristic particle and field signatures at the dayside magnetopause, termed “flux transfer events” (FTEs), are, in at least some cases, due to transient solar wind and/or magnetosheath dynamic pressure increases, rather than time-dependent magnetic reconnection. It is found that most individual cases of FTEs observed by a single spacecraft can, at least qualitatively, be explained by the pressure pulse model, provided a few rather unsatisfactory features of the predictions are explained in terms of measurement uncertainties. The most notable exceptions to this are some “two-regime” observations made by two satellites simultaneously, one on either side of the magnetopause. However, this configuration has not been frequently achieved for sufficient time, such observations are rare, and the relevant tests are still not conclusive. The strongest evidence that FTEs are produced by magnetic reconnection is the dependence of their occurrence on the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) or of the magnetosheath field. The pressure pulse model provides an explanation for this dependence (albeit qualitative) in the case of magnetosheath FTEs, but this does not apply to magnetosphere FTEs. The only surveys of magnetosphere FTEs have not employed the simultaneous IMF, but have shown that their occurrence is strongly dependent on the north-south component of the magnetosheath field, as observed earlier/later on the same magnetopause crossing (for inbound/outbound passes, respectively). This paper employs statistics on the variability of the IMF orientation to investigate the effects of IMF changes between the times of the magnetosheath and FTE observations. It is shown that the previously published results are consistent with magnetospheric FTEs being entirely absent when the magnetosheath field is northward: all crossings with magnetosphere FTEs and a northward field can be attributed to the field changing sense while the satellite was within the magnetosphere (but close enough to the magnetopause to detect an FTE). Allowance for the IMF variability also makes the occurrence frequency of magnetosphere FTEs during southward magnetosheath fields very similar to that observed for magnetosheath FTEs. Conversely, the probability of attaining the observed occurrence frequencies for the pressure pulse model is 10−14. In addition, it is argued that some magnetosheath FTEs should, for the pressure pulse model, have been observed for northward IMF: the probability that the number is as low as actually observed is estimated to be 10−10. It is concluded that although the pressure model can be invoked to qualitatively explain a large number of individual FTE observations, the observed occurrence statistics are in gross disagreement with this model.

Influence of temperature during grain filling on gluten viscoelastic properties and gluten protein composition

BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of low to moderate temperatures on gluten functionality and gluten protein composition. Four spring wheat cultivars were grown in climate chambers with three temperature regimes (day/night temperatures of 13/10, 18/15 and 23/20 °C) during grain filling. RESULTS The temperature strongly influenced grain weight and protein content. Gluten quality measured by maximum resistance to extension (Rmax) was highest in three cultivars grown at 13 °C. Rmax was positively correlated with the proportion of sodium dodecyl sulfate-unextractable polymeric proteins (%UPP). The proportions of ω-gliadins and D-type low-molecular-weight glutenin subunits (LMW-GS) increased and the proportions of α- and γ-gliadins and B-type LMW-GS decreased with higher temperature, while the proportion of high-molecular-weight glutenin subunits (HMW-GS) was constant between temperatures. The cultivar Berserk had strong and constant Rmax between the different temperatures. CONCLUSION Constant low temperature, even as low as 13 °C, had no negative effects on gluten quality. The observed variation in Rmax related to temperature could be explained more by %UPP than by changes in the proportions of HMW-GS or other gluten proteins. The four cultivars responded differently to temperature, as gluten from Berserk was stronger and more stable over a wide range of temperature

The impact of over 80 years of land cover changes on bee and wasp pollinator communities in England

Change in land cover is thought to be one of the key drivers of pollinator declines, and yet there is a dearth of studies exploring the relationships between historical changes in land cover and shifts in pollinator communities. Here, we explore, for the first time, land cover changes in England over more than 80 years, and relate them to concurrent shifts in bee and wasp species richness and community composition. Using historical data from 14 sites across four counties, we quantify the key land cover changes within and around these sites and estimate the changes in richness and composition of pollinators. Land cover changes within sites, as well as changes within a 1 km radius outside the sites, have significant effects on richness and composition of bee and wasp species, with changes in edge habitats between major land classes also having a key influence. Our results highlight not just the land cover changes that may be detrimental to pollinator communities, but also provide an insight into how increases in habitat diversity may benefit species diversity, and could thus help inform policy and practice for future land management.

Terrestrial biosphere changes over the last 120 kyr and their impact on ocean δ 13C

A new global synthesis and biomization of long (>40 kyr) pollen-data records is presented, and used with simulations from the HadCM3 and FAMOUS climate models to analyse the dynamics of the global terrestrial biosphere and carbon storage over the last glacial–interglacial cycle. Global modelled (BIOME4) biome distributions over time generally agree well with those inferred from pollen data. The two climate models show good agreement in global net primary productivity (NPP). NPP is strongly influenced by atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations through CO2 fertilization. The combined effects of modelled changes in vegetation and (via a simple model) soil carbon result in a global terrestrial carbon storage at the Last Glacial Maximum that is 210–470 Pg C less than in pre-industrial time. Without the contribution from exposed glacial continental shelves the reduction would be larger, 330–960 Pg C. Other intervals of low terrestrial carbon storage include stadial intervals at 108 and 85 ka BP, and between 60 and 65 ka BP during Marine Isotope Stage 4. Terrestrial carbon storage, determined by the balance of global NPP and decomposition, influences the stable carbon isotope composition (δ13C) of seawater because terrestrial organic carbon is depleted in 13C. Using a simple carbon-isotope mass balance equation we find agreement in trends between modelled ocean δ13C based on modelled land carbon storage, and palaeo-archives of ocean δ13C, confirming that terrestrial carbon storage variations may be important drivers of ocean δ13C changes.

Palaeoenvironmental changes during the Valanginian: new insights from variations in phosphorus contents and bulk- and clay mineralogies in the western Tethys

Paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic changes during the Valanginian carbon isotopic excursion (CIE) have been investigated in the western Tethys. For this purpose, bulk-rock and clay mineralogies, as well as phosphorus (P) contents were evaluated in a selection of five sections located in the Vocontian Basin (Angles, SE France; Alvier, E Switzerland; Malleval, E France), and the Lombardian Basin (Capriolo, N Italy; Breggia, S Switzerland). Within the CIE interval, bulk-rock and clay mineralogies are inferred to reflect mostly climate change. The onset of the CIE (Busnardoites campylotoxus ammonite Zone) is characterized by higher detrital index (DI: sum of the detrital minerals divided by calcite contents) values and the presence of kaolinite in their clay-mineral assemblages. In the late Valanginian (from the Saynoceras verrucosum Zone up to the end of the Valanginian), the samples show relatively variable DI and lower values or the absence of kaolinite. The variation in the mineralogical composition is interpreted as reflecting a change from a climate characterized by optimal weathering conditions associated with an increase in terrigenous input on the southern European margin during the CIE towards an overall unstable climate associated with drier conditions in the late Valanginian. This is contrasted by a dissymmetry (proximal vs distal) along the studied transect, the northern Tethyan margin being more sensitive to changes in continental input compared to the distal environments. P accumulation rates (PAR) present similar features. In the Vocontian basin, P content variations are associated with changes in terrigenous influx, whereas in the Lombardian basin (i.e. Capriolo and Breggia), PAR values are less well correlated. This is mainly because the deeper part of the Tethys was less sensitive to changes in continental inputs. The onset of the CIE (top of the B. campylotoxus Zone) records a general increase in PAR suggesting an increase in marine nutrient levels. This is linked to higher continental weathering rates and the enhanced influx of nutrients into the ocean. In the period corresponding to the shift itself, P contents show a dissymmetry between the Vocontian and Lombardian basins (proximal vs distal). For the sections of Malleval, Alvier and Angles, a decrease in P concentrations associated to a decrease in detrital input is observed. In Capriolo and Breggia, PAR show maximum values during the plateau, indicating a more complex interaction between different P sources. The time interval including the top of S. verrucosum Zone up to the end of the Valanginian is characterized by variable PAR values, suggesting variable nutrient influxes. These changes are in agreement with an evolution towards seasonally contrasted conditions in the late Valanginian.

Use of TD-GC-TOF-MS to assess volatile composition during post harvest storage in seven accessions of rocket salad (Eruca sativa)

An important step in breeding for nutritionally enhanced varieties is determining the effects of the post-harvest supply chain on phytochemicals and the changes in VOCs produced over time. TD- GC-TOF-MS was used and a technique for the extraction of VOCs from the headspace using portable tubes is described. Forty-two compounds were detected; 39 were identified by comparison to NIST libraries. Thirty-five compounds had not been previously reported in Eruca sativa. Seven accessions were assessed for changes in headspace VOCs over 7 days. Relative amounts of VOCs across 3 time points were significantly different - isothiocyanate-containing molecules being abundant on 'Day 0'. Each accession showed differences in proportions/types of volatiles produced on each day. PCA revealed a separation of VOC profiles according to the day of sampling. Changes in VOC profiles over time could provide a tool for assessment of shelf-life.

Fat composition of organic and conventional retail milk in northeast England

This study of UK retail milk identified highly significant variations in fat composition. The survey, conducted over 2 yr replicating summer and winter, sampled 22 brands, 10 of which indicated organic production systems. Results corroborate earlier farm-based findings considering fat composition of milk produced under conventional and organic management. Organic milk had higher concentrations of beneficial fatty acids (FA) than conventional milk, including total polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA; 39.4 vs. 31.8 g/kg of total FA), conjugated linoleic acid cis-9,trans-11 (CLA9; 7.4 v 5.6 g/kg of FA), and α-linolenic acid (α-LN; 6.9 vs. 4.4 g/kg of FA). As expected, purchase season had a strong effect on fat composition: compared with milk purchased in winter, summer milk had a lower concentration of saturated fatty acids (682 vs. 725 g/kg of FA) and higher concentrations of PUFA (37.6 vs. 32.8 g/kg of FA), CLA9 (8.1 vs. 4.7 g/kg of FA), and α-LN (6.5 vs. 4.6 g/kg of FA). Differences identified between sampling years were more surprising: compared with that in yr 2, milk purchased in year 1 had higher concentrations of PUFA (37.5 vs. 32.9 g/kg of FA), α-LN (6.0 vs. 5.1 g/kg of FA), and linoleic acid (19.9 vs. 17.5 g/kg of FA) and lower concentrations of C16:0 and C14:0 (332 vs. 357 and 110 vs. 118 g/kg of FA, respectively). Strong interactions were identified between management and season as well as between season and year of the study. As in the earlier farm studies, differences in fat composition between systems were greater for summer compared with winter milk. Large between-year differences may be due to changes in weather influencing milk composition through forage availability, quality, and intake. If climate change predictions materialize, both forage and dairy management may have to adapt to maintain current milk quality. Considerable variation existed in milk fat composition between brands.

Changes in sewage sludge carbon forms along a treatment stream

The behaviour and fate of macronutrients and pollutants in sewage sludge applied to the land are affected by the chemical composition of the sludge organic matter, which in turn is influenced by both sewage source and by sewage treatment processes. In this study, 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy was used to characterise the organic matter of sludges collected at three different points along the treatment stream of a municipal sewage works with a domestic catchment. Sludge at the first point, an undigested liquid (UL) sludge, had a substantially different composition to the anaerobically digested (AD) and dewatered sludge cake (DC) materials, which were similar to each other. In particular, the UL sludge contained more alkyl C than the AD or DC sludges. All three sludges were found to contain mobile alkyl C that is poorly observed using the cross polarisation (CP) technique, necessitating the use of the less sensitive, but more quantitatively reliable direct polarisation (DP) technique to obtain accurate distributions of C types.

Manipulation of milk fatty acid composition in lactating cows: opportunities and challenges

Public health policies recommend a population wide decrease in the consumption of saturated fatty acids (SFA) to lower the incidence of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. In most developed countries, milk and dairy products are the major source of SFA in the human diet. Altering milk fat composition offers the opportunity to lower the consumption of SFA without requiring a change in eating habits. Supplementing the diet of lactating cows with oilseeds, plant oils and marine lipids can be used to replace the SFA in milk fat with monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA), and to a lesser extent, polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA). Due to ruminal metabolism, the decreases in milk SFA are also accompanied by increases in trans fatty acids (TFA), including conjugated isomers. The potential to lower SFA, enrich cis MUFA and PUFA, and alter the abundance and distribution of individual TFA in milk differs according to oil source, form of lipid supplement and degree of oilseed processing, and the influence of other components in the diet. The present review summarises recent evidence on changes in milk fat composition that can be achieved using dietary lipid supplements and highlights the challenges to commercial production of modified milk and dairy products. A meta-analysis on the effects of oilseeds on milk fatty acid composition is also presented.

The role of CO2 and dynamic vegetation on the impact of temperate land use change in the HadCM3 coupled climate model

Human induced land-use change (LUC) alters the biogeophysical characteristics of the land surface influencing the surface energy balance. The level of atmospheric CO2 is expected to increase in the coming century and beyond, modifying temperature and precipitation patterns and altering the distribution and physiology of natural vegetation. It is important to constrain how CO2-induced climate and vegetation change may influence the regional extent to which LUC alters climate. This sensitivity study uses the HadCM3 coupled climate model under a range of equilibrium forcings to show that the impact of LUC declines under increasing atmospheric CO2, specifically in temperate and boreal regions. A surface energy balance analysis is used to diagnose how these changes occur. In Northern Hemisphere winter this pattern is attributed in part to the decline in winter snow cover and in the summer due to a reduction in latent cooling with higher levels of CO2. The CO2-induced change in natural vegetation distribution is also shown to play a significant role. Simulations run at elevated CO2 yet present day vegetation show a significantly increased sensitivity to LUC, driven in part by an increase in latent cooling. This study shows that modelling the impact of LUC needs to accurately simulate CO2 driven changes in precipitation and snowfall, and incorporate accurate, dynamic vegetation distribution.

DYNAMIC AND STEADY-SHEAR RHEOLOGICAL PROPERTIES OF XANTHAN AND GUAR GUMS DISPERSED IN YELLOW PASSION FRUIT PULP (Passiflora edulis f. flavicarpa)

Yellow passion fruit pulp is unstable, presenting phase separation that can be avoided by the addition of hydrocolloids. For this purpose, xanthan and guar gum [0.3, 0.7 and 1.0% (w/w)] were added to yellow passion fruit pulp and the changes in the dynamic and steady-shear rheological behavior evaluated. Xanthan dispersions showed a more pronounced pseudoplasticity and the presence of yield stress, which was not observed in the guar gum dispersions. Cross model fitting to flow curves showed that the xanthan suspensions also had higher zero shear viscosity than the guar suspensions, and, for both gums, an increase in temperature led to lower values for this parameter. The gums showed different behavior as a function of temperature in the range of 5-35 degrees C. The activation energy of the apparent viscosity was dependent on the shear rate and gum concentration for guar, whereas for xanthan these values only varied with the concentration. The mechanical spectra were well described by the generalized Maxwell model and the xanthan dispersions showed a more elastic character than the guar dispersions, with higher values for the relaxation time. Xanthan was characterized as a weak gel, while guar presented a concentrated solution behavior. The simultaneous evaluation of temperature and concentration showed a stronger influence of the polysaccharide concentration on the apparent viscosity and the G` and G `` moduli than the variation in temperature.

Impacts of climate changes on crop physiology and food quality

Carbon emissions related to human activities have been significantly contributing to the elevation of atmospheric [CO(2)] and temperature. More recently, carbon emissions have greatly accelerated, thus much stronger effects on crops are expected. Here, we revise literature data concerning the physiological effects of CO(2) enrichment and temperature rise on crop species. We discuss the main advantages and limitations of the most used CO(2)-enrichment technologies, the Open-Top Chambers (OTCs) and the Free-Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE). Within the conditions expected for the next few years, the physiological responses of crops suggest that they will grow faster, with slight changes in development, such as flowering and fruiting, depending on the species. There is growing evidence suggesting that C(3) crops are likely to produce more harvestable products and that both C(3) and C(4) crops are likely to use less water with rising atmospheric [CO(2)] in the absence of stressful conditions. However, the beneficial direct impact of elevated [CO(2)] on crop yield can be offset by other effects of climate change, such as elevated temperatures and altered patterns of precipitation. Changes in food quality in a warmer, high-CO(2) world are to be expected, e.g., decreased protein and mineral nutrient concentrations, as well as altered lipid composition. We point out that studies related to changes in crop yield and food quality as a consequence of global climatic changes should be priority areas for further studies, particularly because they will be increasingly associated with food security. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.