O prêmio de risco da taxa de câmbio no Brasil durante o plano real

A principal explicação sugerida pela literatura para o viés do preço futuro em relação à taxa de câmbio que prevalecerá no futuro é a existência de um prêmio de risco. Aplicamos aqui os principais modelos teóricos e técnicas econométricas para identificação e mensuração do prêmio de risco aos dados brasileiros do mercado futuro de câmbio posteriores ao Plano Real. Identifica-se um prêmio de risco que varia ao longo do tempo, o qual correlaciona-se com os fundamentos macroeconômicos da economia. A partir de 1999, coerentemente com a introdução da livre flutuação cambial, observou-se uma diminuição da importância do prêmio de risco relativamente aos erros de previsão na composição do forward discount. As técnicas empregadas permitem-nos avaliar importantes questões de política econômica, como o quanto podem cair as taxas de juros reais.

Ajustamento de uma economia após uma elevação da produtividade

Employing the two sector model of capital accumulation in an open economy, the impact on the path of the following variables: exchange rate, wages, investment, saving, and consequently externaI debt and capital stock afier a permanent and non expected elevation of the economy productivity is determinated. Afier this positive shock, saving rate decreases, current transaction deteriorates and the exchange rate appreciates. Those are equilibrium phenomena from 3D intertemporaI point of view due to the permanent income raise and to the domestic good excess demand that follows the productivity increase. Assuming that the stabilization programa augment the economy productivity, the model could rationalize qualitatively the stylized facts witnessed after those programa.

Comunidades virtuales y producción de inteligencia económica y competitiva

CARVALHO, Andréa Vasconcelos . Comunidades virtuales y producción de inteligencia económica y competitiva. Inteligencia y Seguridad: revista de análisis y prospectiva, v. 3, p. 13-45, 2007

Predição não-linear de curvas de produção de petróleo via redes neurais recursivas

One of the main activities in the petroleum engineering is to estimate the oil production in the existing oil reserves. The calculation of these reserves is crucial to determine the economical feasibility of your explotation. Currently, the petroleum industry is facing problems to analyze production due to the exponentially increasing amount of data provided by the production facilities. Conventional reservoir modeling techniques like numerical reservoir simulation and visualization were well developed and are available. This work proposes intelligent methods, like artificial neural networks, to predict the oil production and compare the results with the ones obtained by the numerical simulation, method quite a lot used in the practice to realization of the oil production prediction behavior. The artificial neural networks will be used due your learning, adaptation and interpolation capabilities

Fiscal policy contradiction: a perspective on Brazil and Mexico

The aim of this paper is to discuss the quality of fiscal policy in Brazil and Mexico and investigate whether fiscal policy influence is favorable to reduce the unemployment rate. Public spending, which has a positive effect on the level of employment when results in additional aggregate demand, may cause a negative effect on employment, if its financing depends on persistent high interest rates. Brazil and Mexico have engaged in a long effort to control public spending and to reduce the public deficit to zero. Does this policy bring a positive result to the economic activity no matter how actual public deficit has been financed? We select variables related to public budget as public sector borrowing requirements, taxes, public debt and others to form a data base. The fiscal institutional arrangement and the data allow us to evaluate the fiscal policy as a whole and to discuss the importance of credibility and reputation of the government.

Memórias da prisão: literatura e liberdade m estudo sobre Graciliano Ramos e Antonio Gramsci

La tese avvicina le Memorie dal carcere, di Graciliano Ramos e i Quaderni dal carcere di Antonio Gramsci, in una prospettiva in cui essi erano uniti per lo stesso ideale politico della prima metá del XX secolo e rappresentavano la resistenza intellettuale di fronte alla repressione. Entrambi furono vittime dell autoritarismo dei poteri fascisti e registrarono il periodo di prigione in differenti forme memorialistiche. Questi scrittori sono uniti anche per il contesto nazionale molto simile per la differenza economica tra le regioni. Condividono, inoltre, anche il concetto di arte e la certezza che l alienzazione dell intelligenza può essere superata solamente attraverso la ricostruzione delle basi nazionali per mezzo della conoscenza, dell educazione e della cultura. Si vuole mostrare come i concetti di Gramsci sono presenti non solo nella convinzione politica di Graciliano, ma in tutto il suo stile letterario memorialístico. Il lavoro, ancora, paragona le Memorie del carcere con due testi memorialistici di prigione in Italia, che sono Le mie prigioni, di Silvio Pellico, e Se questo è un uomo, di Primo Levi, per dimostrare che la proposta della letteratura gramsciana è molto più vicina allo scrittore brasiliano che ai due suoi conazionali.

O território das novas economias e suas implicações socioambientais na comunidade pesqueira de Barra do Cunhaú

This dissertation aims to analyze the territory of the new economies and their social implications in the district of Barra do Cunhaú / Canguaretama. We used techniques of qualitative research (document analysis, interviews and observations in situ). It was found that the changes occurring in the territory are linked to the pressures caused by factors internal and external orders, such as the deployment and expansion of projects for development of tourism and shrimp in place, which led to the advancement of real estate speculation and intensification of the deforestation of areas of mangroves along the estuary of the river Curimataú / Cunhaú, contributing to the abandonment of fishing and agriculture for livelihood in this community, therefore, the loss of traditional knowledge applied in the conduct of this activity. It was also found that changes in the use of territory and resources threaten biodiversity and have contributed to the reduction of fish stocks of the Municipality of Canguaretama and thus bar the Cunhaú, especially the stock of crab, Uca (ucides cardatus ). The results indicated that the production in large scale in a market economy, as is the shrimp, ignores the search for balance in regional settings. Thus the environmental disturbances resulting from the shrimp and tourism have consequences for social and cultural aspects, directly affecting the livelihood of the residents of Barra do Cunhaú. Companies of shrimp and related to tourism have absorbed the fishermen who are leaving the fishing activity. However, the low level of education associated with age are factors that make them far outside the framework of employees of these companies. Therefore, it is necessary to create conditions that allow the development of the shrimp and tourism without putting at risk the sustainability of the region

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2009

Includes bibliography

Panorama de la Inserción Internacional de América Latina y el Caribe 2008-2009: crisis y espacios de cooperación regional

Incluye Bibliografía

Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2008-2009: Crisis and opportunities for regional cooperation

Incluye Bibliografía

Panorama económico de América Latina, 1986 = Economic panorama of Latin America, 1986

Incluye Bibliografía

Panorama económico de América Latina, 1987 = Economic panorama of Latin America, 1987

Incluye Bibliografía

Panorama económico de América Latina, 1988 = Economic panorama of Latin America, 1988

Incluye Bibliografía

Reformas para la cohesión social en América Latina: panorama antes de la crisis

Incluye Bibliografía