Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Comparison of Radiation Doses for Catheter Ablation Procedures for Atrial Fibrillation with Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Cases

Background: Catheter ablation procedures for atrial fibrillation (AF) may frequently require long fluoroscopic times. We sought to undertake a review of radiation safety practice in our Cardiac Electrophysiology Laboratory and implement changes to minimize fluoroscopic doses. We also sought to compare the results with radiation doses for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) cases performed in our hospital. Methods: Fluoroscopic times and doses for AF ablation procedures performed by a single operator on a Philips Integris H3000 image-intensifier were analysed for 11-month period. Results were compared with all PCI procedures performed over a similar period by multiple operators on a Philips Integris Allura FD system. Comprehensive review of radiation practice in the Electrophysiology laboratory identified the potential to reduce pulse frame rates and doses, and to narrow the field of interest without impacting the performance of the procedure. These changes were implemented and results analysed after a further 11 months. Results: In the pre-intervention period 50 AF catheter ablations had a mean fluoroscopic time of 86.4 min and mean fluoroscopic dose 68.4 Gy/cm2. Post-intervention 75 procedures had a mean fluorosocopic time of 68.9 min (p < 0.0001) and mean dose of 14.3 Gy/cm2 (p < 0.0001) 128 PCI procedures had a mean combined fluoroscopic and image acquisition time of 10.0 min and mean total dose 38.8 Gy/cm2. Conclusions: Catheter ablation procedures for AF may require lengthy use of fluoroscopy but simple modifications to radiation practice can result in marked reductions in radiation dose that compare favourably with PCI case doses

Regional Differences in the Influence of Irrigation on Climate

A global climate model experiment is performed to evaluate the effect of irrigation on temperatures in several major irrigated regions of the world. The Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.3, was modified to represent irrigation for the fraction of each grid cell equipped for irrigation according to datasets from the Food and Agriculture Organization. Results indicate substantial regional differences in the magnitude of irrigation-induced cooling, which are attributed to three primary factors: differences in extent of the irrigated area, differences in the simulated soil moisture for the control simulation (without irrigation), and the nature of cloud response to irrigation. The last factor appeared especially important for the dry season in India, although further analysis with other models and observations are needed to verify this feedback. Comparison with observed temperatures revealed substantially lower biases in several regions for the simulation with irrigation than for the control, suggesting that the lack of irrigation may be an important component of temperature bias in this model or that irrigation compensates for other biases. The results of this study should help to translate the results from past regional efforts, which have largely focused on the United States, to regions in the developing world that in many cases continue to experience significant expansion of irrigated land.

Stakeholders' assessment of welfare indicators for sheep and cattle exported by sea from Australia

An adaptive conjoint analysis was use to evaluate stakeholders' opinion of welfare indicators for ship-transported sheep and cattle, both onboard and in pre-export depots. In consultations with two nominees of each identified stakeholder group (government officials, animal welfare representatives, animal scientists, stockpersons, producers/pre-export depot operators, exporters/ship owners and veterinarians), 18 potential indicators were identified Three levels were assigned to each using industry statistics and expert opinion, representing those observed on the best and worst 5% of voyages and an intermediate value. A computer-based questionnaire was completed by 135 stakeholders (48% of those invited). All indicators were ranked by respondents in the assigned order, except fodder intake, in which case providing the amount necessary to maintain bodyweight was rated better than over or underfeeding, and time in the pre-export assembly depot, in which case 5 days was rated better than 0 or 10 days. The respective Importance Values (a relative rating given by the respondent) for each indicator were, in order of declining importance: mortality (8.6%), clinical disease incidence (8.2%), respiration rate (6.8%), space allowance (6.2%), ammonia levels (6.1%), weight change (6.0%), wet bulb temperature (6.0%), time in assembly depot (5.4%), percentage of animals in hospital pen (5.4%), fodder intake (5.2%), stress-related metabolites (5.0%), percentage of feeding trough utilised (5.0%), injuries (4.8%), percentage of animals able to access food troughs at any one time (4.8%), percentage of animals lying down (4.7%), cortisol concentration (4.5Y.), noise (3.9y.), and photoperiod (3.4%). The different stakeholder groups were relatively consistent in their ranking of the indicators, with all groups nominating the some top two and at least five of the top seven indicators. Some of the top indicators, in particular mortality, disease incidence and temperature, are already recorded in the Australian industry, but the study identified potential new welfare indicators for exported livestock, such as space allowance and ammonia concentration, which could be used to improve welfare standards if validated by scientific data. The top indicators would also be useful worldwide for countries engaging in long distance sea transport of livestock.

International Society for Applied Ethology. Special issue: a selection of papers from the 39th International Congress of the International Society for Applied Ethology (ISAE), Tokyo, Japan, August 2005

Welcome to the latest collection of papers selected from the International Society for Applied Ethology's (ISAE's) annual congress. The ISAE is a multi-faceted scientific society that supports applied research on animals that are managed by humans. Every year, we aim to invite congress participants who have submitted papers, plenary talks, run workshops, or presented the memorial lecture on theoretical, review or discussion papers of topical interest to contribute to the Special Issue. These papers are peer-reviewed before being published here in Applied Animal Behaviour Science. This year, we have a variety of papers to bring to your attention. The David Wood-Gush Memorial lecture, the keynote address of the congress, was given by Shigeru Watanabe on animal cognition and welfare. His paper highlights how animal's sensory capabilities relate to their welfare. On the topic of human–animal bonds, Stine Christiansen and Björn Forkman explore how animal welfare is assessed in a veterinary context, and how those assessments might be improved by ethologists. Yoshie Kakuma and co-authors report on the discussions from a workshop on the welfare of working and companion dogs in five different countries. Based on their plenary lectures, Michael Cockram discusses the factors that affect farmed animals during road transport and how these might contribute in making decisions to restrict journey times, while Clive Phillips and co-author Danica Peck examine how personality influences the behaviour and interactions between zoo-housed tigers and their keepers. We hope you enjoy these papers. Our sincere thanks go to both the authors and referees, without whom these special issues would not be possible. A selection of papers from the 39th International Congress of the International Society for Applied Ethology (ISAE), Tokyo, Japan, August 2005.

Analysis of physical activity in emmetropic and myopic university students during semester and holiday periods: A pilot study

Background Previous studies (mostly questionnaire-based in children) suggest that outdoor activity is protective against myopia. There are few studies on young adults investigating both the impact of simply being outdoors versus performing physical activity. The aim was to study the relationship between the refractive error of young adults and their physical activity patterns. Methods Twenty-seven university students, aged 18 to 25 years, wore a pedometer (Omron HJ720ITE) for seven days both during the semester and holiday periods. They simultaneously recorded the type of activity performed, its duration, the number of steps taken (from the pedometer) and their location (indoors/outdoors) in a logbook. Mean spherical refractive error was used to divide participants into three groups (emmetropes: +1.00 to -0.50 D, low myopes: -0.62 to -3.00 D, higher myopes: -3.12 D or greater myopia). Results There were no significant differences between the refractive groups during the semester or holiday periods; the average daily times spent outdoors, the duration of physical activity, the ratio of physical activity performed outdoors to indoors and amount of near work performed were similar. The peak exercise intensity was similar across all groups: approximately 100 steps perminute, a brisk walk. Up to one-third of all physical activity was performed outdoors. There were some significant differences in activities performed during semester and holiday times. For example, lowmyopes spent significantly less time outside (49 ± 47 versus 74 ± 41 minutes, p = 0.005) and performed less physical activity (6,388 ± 1,747 versus 6,779 ± 2,746 steps per day; p = 0.03) during the holidays compared to during semester. Conclusions The fact that all groups had similar low exercise intensity butmany were notmyopic suggests that physical activity levels are not critical. There were differences in the activity patterns of lowmyopes during semester and holiday periods. This study highlights the need for a larger longitudinal-based study with particular emphasis on how discretionary time is spent.

The physiological and metabolic impacts on sheep and cattle of feed and water deprivation before and during transport

Sheep and cattle are frequently subjected to feed and water deprivation (FWD) for about 12 h before, and then during, transport to reduce digesta load in the gastrointestinal tract. This FWD is marked by weight loss as urine and faeces mainly in the first 24 h but continuing at a reduced rate subsequently. The weight of rumen contents falls although water loss is to some extent masked by saliva inflow. FWD is associated with some stress, particularly when transportation is added. This is indicated by increased levels of plasma cortisol that may be partly responsible for an observed increase in the output of water and N in urine and faeces. Loss of body water induces dehydration that may induce feelings of thirst by effects on the hypothalamus structures through the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system. There are suggestions that elevated cortisol levels depress angiotensin activity and prevent sensations of thirst in dehydrated animals, but further research in this area is needed. Dehydration coupled with the discharge of Na in urine challenges the maintenance of homeostasis. In FWD, Na excretion in urine is reduced and, with the reduction in digesta load, Na is gradually returned from the digestive tract to the extracellular fluid space. Control of enteropathogenic bacteria by normal rumen microbes is weakened by FWD and resulting infections may threaten animal health and meat safety. Recovery time is required after transport to restore full feed intake and to ensure that adequate glycogen is present in muscle pre-slaughter to maintain meat quality.

Space allowances for confined livestock and their determination from allometric principles

The amount of space provided to animals governs important elements of their behaviour and, hence, is critical for their health and welfare. We review the use of allometric principles and equations to estimate the static space requirements of animals when standing and lying, and the space required for animals to feed, drink, stand-up and lie-down. We use the research literature relating to transportation and intensive housing of sheep and cattle to assess the validity of allometric equations for estimating space allowances. We investigated these areas because transportation and intensive housing provide points along a continuum in terms of the duration of confinement, (from hours to months) and spatial requirements are likely to increase with increasing duration of confinement, as animals will need to perform a greater behavioural repertoire for long-term survival, health and welfare. We find that, although there are theoretical reasons why allometric relationships to space allowances may vary slightly for different classes of stock, space allowances that have been demonstrated to have adverse effects on animal welfare during transportation correlated well with an inability to accommodate standing animals, as estimated from allometry. For intensive housing, we were able to detect a space allowance below which there were adverse effects on welfare. For short duration transportation during which animals remain standing, a space allowance per animal described by the allometric equation: area (m^2) = 0.020W^0.66, where W = liveweight (kg), would appear to be appropriate. Where it is desirable for all animals to lie simultaneously, then a minimum space allowance per animal described by the allometric equation: area (m^2) = 0.027W^0.66 appears to permit this, given that animals in a group time-share space. However, there are insufficient data to determine whether this allowance onboard a vehicle/vessel would enable animals to move and access food and water with ease. In intensive housing systems, a minimum space allowance per animal described by the allometric equation: area (m^2) = 0.033W^0.66 appears to be the threshold below which there are adverse effects on welfare. These suggested space allowances require verification with a range of species under different thermal conditions and, for transportation, under different conditions of vehicular/vessel stability. The minimum length of trough per animal (L in m) required for feeding and drinking can be determined from L = 0.064W^0.33, with the number of animals required to feed/drink simultaneously taken into account, together with any requirement to minimise competition. This also requires verification with a range of species. We conclude that allometric relationships are an appropriate basis for the formulation of space allowances for livestock.

Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

The physiological and behavioral responses of steers to gaseous ammonia in simulated long distance transport by ship.

Ammonia (NH3) can accumulate in high density cattle accommodation during live export shipments and could potentially threaten the animals' health and welfare. The effects of 4 NH3 concentrations, control (<8), 15, 30, and 45 ppm, on the physiology and behavior of steers were recorded. The animals were held for 12 d under a micro-climate and stocking density similar to shipboard conditions experienced on voyages from Australia to the Middle East during the northern hemispheric summer. In bronchoalveolar lavage samples, ammonia increased (P < 0.05) macrophage activity in proportion to NH3 concentration and it increased (P < 0.05) neutrophil percentage at 30 and 45 ppm, indicating active pulmonary inflammation. It also increased (P < 0.05) lacrimation, nasal secretions and coughing, particularly at 45 ppm, indicating that the NH3 was irritating the mucous membranes of the eyes, nasal cavity and respiratory tract. Ammonia had no effect (P > 0.05) on hematological parameters or body weight. Twenty-eight days after exposure to NH3, the steers' pulmonary macrophage activity and neutrophil levels had returned to normal. It was concluded that ammonia concentrations of 30 and 45 ppm induced temporary inflammatory responses which indicate an adverse effect on the welfare of steers.

Population genetic structure and genetic diversity of three critically endangered Pristis sawfishes in Australian waters.

Northern Australia is considered to be one of the last strongholds for three critically endangered sawfishes, Pristis zijsron, Pristis clavata, and Pristis microdon, making these populations of global significance. Population structure and levels of genetic diversity were assessed for each species across northern Australia using a portion of the mitochondrial control region. Statistically significant genetic structure was detected in all three species, although it was higher in P. microdon (F-ST = 0.811; N = 149) than in either P. clavata (F-ST = 0.419; N = 73) or P. zijsron (F-ST = 0.202; N = 49), possibly due to a much higher and/or localized level of female philopatry in P. microdon. The overall levels of haplotype diversity in P. zijsron (h = 0.555), P. clavata (h = 0.489), and P. microdon (h = 0.650) were moderate, although it appears to be reduced in the assemblages of P. zijsron and P. clavata in the Gulf of Carpentaria (h = 0.342 and h = 0.083, respectively). Since female migration (replenishment) between regions is unlikely, conservation plans should strive to maintain current levels of diversity and abundances in the regional assemblages of each species.

Pressure induced effects in bulk amorphous n-type semiconductors(GeSe3.5)100âxBix

The effect of pressure on the electrical resistivity of amorphous n-type (GeSe3.5)100�xBix been studied in a Bridgeman anvil system up to a pressure of 90 kbar down to liquid nitrogen temperature. A continuous amorphous semiconductor to metal-like solid transition in the undoped GeSe3.5 is observed at room temperature. Incorporation of Bi in the GeSe3.5 network is found to significantly disturb the behaviour of the resistivity with pressure. With increasing Bi concentration a much broader variation in resistivity with pressure is observed. The temperature dependence of the resistivity and activation energy at different pressures is also measured and they are found to be composition dependent. Results are discussed in the light of the Phillips Model of ordered clusters in chalcogenide semiconductors.

Mud Crab Aquaculture

This chapter describes the current status of mud crab farming in Asia; the suitability of the mud crab biology and lifecycle to aquaculture; an update on recent developments in research and examines a number of significant areas requiring further development.

Follicle stimulating hormone secretion and dominant follicle growth during treatment of Bos indicus heifers with intra-vaginal progesterone releasing devices, oestradiol benzoate, equine chorionic gonadotrophin and prostaglandin F-2 alpha

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects on follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) secretion and dominant follicle (OF) growth, of treatment of Bos indicus heifers with different combinations of intra-vaginal progesterone releasing devices (IPRD), oestradiol benzoate (ODB), PGF(2 alpha), and eCG. Two-year-old Brahman (BN; n=30) and Brahman-cross (BNX; n=34) heifers were randomly allocated to three IPRD-treatments: (i) standard-dose IPRD [CM 1.56 g; 1.56 g progesterone (P-4); n = 17]; (ii) half-dose IPRD (CM 0.78 g; 0.78 g p(4); n=15); (iii) half-dose IPRD + 300 IU eCG at IPRD removal (CM 0.78 g+G; n=14); and, (iv) non-IPRD control (2 x PGF(2 alpha); n=18) 500 mu g cloprostenol on Days -16 and -2. IPRD-treated heifers received 250 mu g PGF(2 alpha) at IPRD insertion (Day 10) and IPRD removal (Day -2) and 1 mg ODB on Day -10 and Day -1. Follicular dynamics were monitored daily by trans-rectal ultrasonography from Day -10 to Day 1. Blood samples for determination of P-4 were collected daily and samples for FSH determination were collected at 12 h intervals from Day -9 to Day -2. A significant surge in concentrations of FSH was observed in the 2 x PGF(2 alpha), treatment 12 h prior and 48 h after follicular wave emergence, but not in the IPRD-treated heifers. Estimated mean concentrations of total plasma P-4 during the 8 days of IPRD insertion was greater (P<0.001) in the CM 1.56 g P-4 treated heifers compared to the CM 0.78 g P-4 treated heifers (18.38 ng/ml compared with 11.09 ng/ml, respectively). A treatment by genotype interaction (P=0.036) was observed in the mean plasma P4 concentration in heifers with no CL during IPRD insertion, whereby BN heifers in the CM 1.56 g treatment had greater plasma P-4 than the BNX heifers on Days-9, -7, -6, -5, and -4. However, there was no genotype effect in the CM 0.78 g +/- G or the 2 x PGF(2 alpha) treatment. Treatment had no effect on the DF growth from either day of wave emergence (P=0.378) or day of IPRD removal (P=0.780) to ovulation. This study demonstrates that FSH secretion in B. indicus heifers treated with a combination of IPRD's and ODB to synchronise ovulation was suppressed during the period of IPRD insertion but no significant effect on growth of the DF was observed. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.