907 resultados para Cointegration analysis with structural breaks


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This thesis is concerned with development of improved management practices in indigenous chicken production systems in a research process that includes participatory approaches with smallholder farmers and other stakeholders in Kenya. The research process involved a wide range of activities that included on-station experiments, field surveys, stakeholder consultations in workshops, seminars and visits, and on-farm farmer participatory research to evaluate the effect of some improved management interventions on production performance of indigenous chickens. The participatory research was greatly informed from collective experiences and lessons of the previous activities. The on-station studies focused on hatching, growth and nutritional characteristics of the indigenous chickens. Four research publications from these studies are included in this thesis. Quantitative statistical analyses were applied and they involved use of growth models estimated with non-linear regressions for the growth characteristics, chi-square determinations to investigate differences among different reciprocal crosses of indigenous chickens and general linear models and covariance determination for the nutrition study. The on-station studies brought greater understanding of performance and production characteristics of indigenous chickens and the influence of management practices on these characteristics. The field surveys and stakeholder consultations helped in understanding the overarching issues affecting the productivity of the indigenous chickens systems and their place in the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. These activities created strong networking opportunities with stakeholders from a wide spectrum. The on-farm farmer participatory research involved selection of 200 farmers in five regions followed by training and introduction of interventions on improved management practices which included housing, vaccination, deworming and feed supplementation. Implementation and monitoring was mainly done by individual farmers continuously for close to one and half years. Six quarterly visits to the farms were made by the research team to monitor and provide support for on-going project activities. The data collected has been analysed for 5 consecutive 3-monthly periods. Descriptive and inferential statistics were applied to analyse the data collected involving treatment applications, production characteristics and flock demography characteristics. Out of the 200 farmers initially selected, 173 had records on treatment applications and flock demography characteristics while 127 farmers had records on production characteristics. The demographic analysis with a dissimilarity index of flock size produced 7 distinct farm groups from among the 173 farms. Two of these farm groups were represented in similar numbers in each of the five regions. The research process also involved a number of dissemination and communication strategies that have brought the process and project outcomes into the domain of accessibility by wider readership locally and globally. These include workshops, seminars, field visits and consultations, local and international conferences, electronic conferencing, publications and personal communication via emailing and conventional posting. A number of research and development proposals were also developed based on the knowledge and experiences gained from the research process. The thesis captures the research process activities and outcomes in 8 chapters which include in ascending order – introduction, theoretical concepts underpinning FPR, research methodology and process, on-station research output, FPR descriptive statistical analysis, FPR inferential statistical analysis on production characteristics, FPR demographic analysis and conclusions. Various research approaches both quantitative and qualitative have been applied in the research process indicating the possibilities and importance of combining both systems for greater understanding of issues being studied. In our case, participatory studies of the improved management of indigenous chickens indicates their potential importance as livelihood assets for poor people.

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Objective Sustained attention problems are common in people with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and may have significant implications for the diagnosis and management of ASD and associated comorbidities. Furthermore, ASD has been associated with atypical structural brain development. The authors used functional MRI to investigate the functional brain maturation of attention between childhood and adulthood in people with ASD. Method Using a parametrically modulated sustained attention/vigilance task, the authors examined brain activation and its linear correlation with age between childhood and adulthood in 46 healthy male adolescents and adults (ages 11–35 years) with ASD and 44 age- and IQ-matched typically developing comparison subjects. Results Relative to the comparison group, the ASD group had significantly poorer task performance and significantly lower activation in inferior prefrontal cortical, medial prefrontal cortical, striato-thalamic, and lateral cerebellar regions. A conjunction analysis of this analysis with group differences in brain-age correlations showed that the comparison group, but not the ASD group, had significantly progressively increased activation with age in these regions between childhood and adulthood, suggesting abnormal functional brain maturation in ASD. Several regions that showed both abnormal activation and functional maturation were associated with poorer task performance and clinical measures of ASD and inattention. Conclusions The results provide first evidence that abnormalities in sustained attention networks in individuals with ASD are associated with underlying abnormalities in the functional brain maturation of these networks between late childhood and adulthood.

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We investigate the influence of articles, authors, journals and institutions in the field of environmental and ecological economics. We depart from studies that investigated the literature until 2001 and include a time period that has witnessed an enormous increase of importance in the field. We adjust for the age effect given the huge impact of the year of an article's publication on its influence and we show that this adjustment does make a substantial difference — especially for disaggregated units of analysis with diverse age characteristics such as articles or authors. We analyse 6597 studies on environmental and ecological economics published between 2000 and 2009. We provide rankings of the influential articles, authors, journals and institutions and find that Ecological Economics, Energy Economics and the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management have the most influential articles, they publish very influential authors and their articles are cited most. The University of Maryland, Resources for the Future, the University of East Anglia and the World Bank appear to be the most influential institutions in the field of environmental and ecological economics.

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Temperature, pressure, gas stoichiometry, and residence time were varied to control the yield and product distribution of the palladium-catalyzed aminocarbonylation of aromatic bromides in both a silicon microreactor and a packed-bed tubular reactor. Automation of the system set points and product sampling enabled facile and repeatable reaction analysis with minimal operator supervision. It was observed that the reaction was divided into two temperature regimes. An automated system was used to screen steady-state conditions for offline analysis by gas chromatography to fit a reaction rate model. Additionally, a transient temperature ramp method utilizing online infrared analysis was used, leading to more rapid determination of the reaction activation energy of the lower temperature regimes. The entire reaction spanning both regimes was modeled in good agreement with the experimental data.

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Existing theoretical models of house prices and credit rely on continuous rationality of consumers, an assumption that has been frequently questioned in recent years. Meanwhile, empirical investigations of the relationship between prices and credit are often based on national-level data, which is then tested for structural breaks and asymmetric responses, usually with subsamples. Earlier author argues that local markets are structurally different from one another and so the coefficients of any estimated housing market model should vary from region to region. We investigate differences in the price–credit relationship for 12 regions of the UK. Markov-switching is introduced to capture asymmetric market behaviours and turning points. Results show that credit abundance had a large impact on house prices in Greater London and nearby regions alongside a strong positive feedback effect from past house price movements. This impact is even larger in Greater London and the South East of England when house prices are falling, which are the only instances where the credit effect is more prominent than the positive feedback effect. A strong positive feedback effect from past lending activity is also present in the loan dynamics. Furthermore, bubble probabilities extracted using a discrete Kalman filter neatly capture market turning points.

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Introduction: Nerve allografting is regarded as a treatment of choice in large neural tissue losses preventing repair by primary anastomosis. In these cases, a synthetic polyglycolic acid tube is an alternative for nerve grafting. On the other hand, several studies have emphasized the importance of neurotrophic factors on neural regeneration, including substances with potential to optimize neural regeneration, especially the GM1, an neurotrophic enhancer factor. Objective: to compare, in rats, the neural regeneration degree using histological analysis, regenerated myelinized axons count, and functional analysis with the use of neurotube and GM1. Methods: This assessment was performed by interposing allograft (group A), polyglycolic acid tube (group B) and polyglycolic acid tube associated to GM1 (group C) on 5-mm sciatic nerve defects. Results: Neuroma formation was found only on group A. Groups A and C showed similar histological patterns, except for the regenerated axons on group C, which were shown to be better organized and myelinized than in group A. Conclusion: on functional recovery, no statistically significant difference was found for the three groups, despite of qualitative and quantitative histological differences found.

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Texture is one of the most important visual attributes for image analysis. It has been widely used in image analysis and pattern recognition. A partially self-avoiding deterministic walk has recently been proposed as an approach for texture analysis with promising results. This approach uses walkers (called tourists) to exploit the gray scale image contexts in several levels. Here, we present an approach to generate graphs out of the trajectories produced by the tourist walks. The generated graphs embody important characteristics related to tourist transitivity in the image. Computed from these graphs, the statistical position (degree mean) and dispersion (entropy of two vertices with the same degree) measures are used as texture descriptors. A comparison with traditional texture analysis methods is performed to illustrate the high performance of this novel approach. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Intense violet-blue photoluminescence (PL) emission at room temperature was verified in BaZrO3 (BZO) powders with structural order-disorder. Ab-initio calculations, ultraviolet-visible absorption spectroscopy and PL were performed. Theoretical results showed that the local disorder in the network-formed Zr clusters present an important role in the formation of hole-electron pair. The experimental data and theoretical results are in agreement, indicating that the PL emission in BZO powders can be related to the structural order-disorder degree in the lattice. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Alzheimer`s disease is an ultimately fatal neurodegenerative disease, and BACE-1 has become an attractive validated target for its therapy, with more than a hundred crystal structures deposited in the PDB. In the present study, we present a new methodology that integrates ligand-based methods with structural information derived from the receptor. 128 BACE-1 inhibitors recently disclosed by GlaxoSmithKline R&D were selected specifically because the crystal structures of 9 of these compounds complexed to BACE-1, as well as five closely related analogs, have been made available. A new fragment-guided approach was designed to incorporate this wealth of structural information into a CoMFA study, and the methodology was systematically compared to other popular approaches, such as docking, for generating a molecular alignment. The influence of the partial charges calculation method was also analyzed. Several consistent and predictive models are reported, including one with r (2) = 0.88, q (2) = 0.69 and r (pred) (2) = 0.72. The models obtained with the new methodology performed consistently better than those obtained by other methodologies, particularly in terms of external predictive power. The visual analyses of the contour maps in the context of the enzyme drew attention to a number of possible opportunities for the development of analogs with improved potency. These results suggest that 3D-QSAR studies may benefit from the additional structural information added by the presented methodology.

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Habitually, capuchin monkeys access encased hard foods by using their canines and premolars and/or by pounding the food on hard surfaces. Instead, the wild bearded capuchins (Cebus libidinosus) of Boa Vista (Brazil) routinely crack palm fruits with tools. We measured size, weight, structure, and peak-force-at-failure of the four palm fruit species most frequently processed with tools by wild capuchin monkeys living in Boa Vista. Moreover, for each nut species we identify whether peak-force-at-failure was consistently associated with greater weight/volume, endocarp, thickness, and structural complexity. The goals of this study were (a) to investigate whether these palm fruits are difficult, or impossible, to access other than with tools and (b) to collect data on the physical properties of palm fruits that are comparable to those available for the nuts cracked open with tools by wild chimpanzees. Results showed that the four nut species differ in terms of peak-force-at-failure and that peak-force-at-failure is positively associated with greater weight (and consequently volume) and apparently with structural complexity (i.e. more kernels and thus more partitions); finally for three out of four nut species shell thickness is also positively associated with greater volume. The finding that the nuts exploited by capuchins with tools have very high resistance values support the idea that tool use is indeed mandatory to crack them open. Finally, the peak-force-at-failure of the piassava nuts is similar to that reported for the very tough panda nuts cracked open by wild chimpanzees; this highlights the ecological importance of tool use for exploiting high resistance foods in this capuchin species.

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Objectives: Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is a major risk factor for cervical disease. Using baseline data from the HIV-infected cohort of Evandro Chagas Clinical Research Institute at Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, factors associated with an increased prevalence of HPV were assessed. Methods: Samples from 634 HIV-infected women were tested for the presence of HPV infection using hybrid capture 11 and polymerase chain reaction. Prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated using Poisson regression analysis with robust variance. Results: The overall prevalence of HPV infection was 48%, of which 94% were infected with a high-risk HPV. In multivariate analysis, factors independently associated with infection with high-risk HPV type were: younger age (<30 years of age; PR 1.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-2.1), current or prior drug use (PR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0-1.6), self-reported history of HPV infection (PR 1.2, 95% CI 0.96-1.6), condom use in the last sexual intercourse (PR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.7), and nadir CD4+ T-cell count <100 cells/mm(3) (PR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2-2.1). Conclusions: The estimated prevalence of high-risk HPV-infection among HIV-infected women from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, was high. Close monitoring of HPV-related effects is warranted in all HIV-infected women, in particular those of younger age and advanced immunosuppression. (C) 2008 International Society for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Direct analysis, with minimal sample pretreatment, of antidepressant drugs, fluoxetine, imipramine, desipramine, amitriptyline, and nortriptyline in biofluids was developed with a total run time of 8 min. The setup consists of two HPLC pumps, injection valve, capillary RAM-ADS-C18 pre-column and a capillary analytical C 18 column connected by means of a six-port valve in backflush mode. Detection was performed with ESI-MS/MS and only 1 mu m of sample was injected. Validation was adequately carried out using FLU-d(5) as internal standard. Calibration curves were constructed under a linear range of 1-250 ng mL(-1) in plasma, being the limit of quantification (LOQ), determined as 1 ng mL(-1), for all the analytes. With the described approach it was possible to reach a quantified mass sensitivity of 0.3 pg for each analyte (equivalent to 1.1-1.3 fmol), translating to a lower sample consumption (in the order of 103 less sample than using conventional methods). (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The enzyme dihydroorotate dehydrogenase (DHODH) has been suggested as a promising target for the design of trypanocidal agents. We report here the discovery of novel inhibitors of Trypanosoma cruzi DHODH identified by a combination of virtual screening and ITC methods. Monitoring of the enzymatic reaction in the presence of selected ligands together with structural information obtained from X-ray crystallography analysis have allowed the identification and validation of a novel site of interaction (S2 site). This has provided important structural insights for the rational design of T cruzi and Leishmania major DHODH inhibitors. The most potent compound (1) in the investigated series inhibits TcDHODH enzyme with K(i)(app) value of 19.28 mu M and possesses a ligand efficiency of 0.54 kcal mol(-1) per non-H atom. The compounds described in this work are promising hits for further development. (C) 2010 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

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The cost of a road construction over its service life is a function of the design, quality of construction, maintenance strategies and maintenance operations. Unfortunately, designers often neglect a very important aspect which is the possibility to perform future maintenance activities. The focus is mainly on other aspects such as investment costs, traffic safety, aesthetic appearance, regional development and environmental effects. This licentiate thesis is a part of a Ph.D. project entitled “Road Design for lower maintenance costs” that aims to examine how the life-cycle costs can be optimized by selection of appropriate geometrical designs for the roads and their components. The result is expected to give a basis for a new method used in the road planning and design process using life-cycle cost analysis with particular emphasis on road maintenance. The project started with a review of literature with the intention to study conditions causing increased needs for road maintenance, the efforts made by the road authorities to satisfy those needs and the improvement potential by consideration of maintenance aspects during planning and design. An investigation was carried out to identify the problems which obstruct due consideration of maintenance aspects during the road planning and design process. This investigation focused mainly on the road planning and design process at the Swedish Road Administration. However, the road planning and design process in Denmark, Finland and Norway were also roughly evaluated to gain a broader knowledge about the research subject. The investigation was carried out in two phases: data collection and data analysis. Data was collected by semi-structured interviews with expert actors involved in planning, design and maintenance and by a review of design-related documents. Data analyses were carried out using a method called “Change Analysis”. This investigation revealed a complex combination of problems which result in inadequate consideration of maintenance aspects. Several urgent needs for changes to eliminate these problems were identified. Another study was carried out to develop a model for calculation of the repair costs for damages of different road barrier types and to analyse how factors such as road type, speed limits, barrier types, barrier placement, type of road section, alignment and seasonal effects affect the barrier damages and the associated repair costs. This study was carried out using a method called the “Case Study Research Method”. Data was collected from 1087 barrier repairs in two regional offices of the Swedish Road Administration, the Central Region and the Western Region. A table was established for both regions containing the repair cost per vehicle kilometre for different combinations of barrier types, road types and speed limits. This table can be used by the designers in the calculation of the life-cycle costs for different road barrier types.

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This paper examines structural changes that occur in the total factor productivity (TFP) within countries. It is possible that some episodes of high economic growth or economic decline are associated with permanent productivity shocks, therefore, this research has two objectives. The Örst one is to estimate the structural changes present in TFP for a sample of 81 countries between 1950(60) and 2000. The second one is to identify, whenever possible, episodes in the political and economic history of these countries that may account for the structural breaks in question. The results suggest that about 85% of the TFP time-series present at least one structural break, moreover, at least half the structural changes can be attributed to internal factors, such as independence or a newly adopted constitution, and about 30% to external shocks, such as oil shock or shocks in international interest rates. The majority of the estimated breaks are downwards, indicating that after a break the TFP tends to decrease, implying that institutional rearrangements, external shocks, or internal shocks may be costly and from which it is very di¢ cult to recover.