942 resultados para Climate Impact
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OBJECTIVE: To analyze the impact of intra-urban atmospheric conditions on circulatory and respiratory diseases in elder adults. METHODS: Cross-sectional study based on data from 33,212 hospital admissions in adults over 60 years in the city of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, from 2003 to 2007. The association between atmospheric variables from Congonhas airport and bioclimatic index, Physiological Equivalent Temperature, was analyzed according to the district's socioenvironmental profile. Descriptive statistical analysis and regression models were used. RESULTS: There was an increase in hospital admissions due to circulatory diseases as average and lowest temperatures decreased. The likelihood of being admitted to the hospital increased by 12% with 1ºC decrease in the bioclimatic index and with 1ºC increase in the highest temperatures in the group with lower socioenvironmental conditions. The risk of admission due to respiratory diseases increased with inadequate air quality in districts with higher socioenvironmental conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The associations between morbidity and climate variables and the comfort index varied in different groups and diseases. Lower and higher temperatures increased the risk of hospital admission in the elderly. Districts with lower socioenvironmental conditions showed greater adverse health impacts.
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The Light Steel Framing building technology was introduced in Brazil in the late 1990s for the construction of residential houses. Because the design system was imported from the United States and is optimised to work well in that temperate climate, some modi fi cations must be made to adapt it for the Brazilian climate. The objective of this paper was to assess the impact of thermal bridging across enclosure elements on the thermal performance of buildings designed with Light Steel Framing in Brazil. The numerical simulation program EnergyPlus and a speci fi c method that considered the effects of metallic structures in the hourly simulations were used for the analysis. Two air-conditioned commercial buildings were used as case studies. The peak thermal load increased approximately 10% when an interior metal frame was included in the numerical simulations compared to non-metallic structures. Even when a metal frame panel was used only for vertical elements in the facade of a building with a conventional concrete structure, the simulations showed a 5% increase in annual energy use.
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[EN] Understanding and quantifying ocean-atmosphere exchanges of the long-lived greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) are important for understanding the global biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nitrogen in the context of ongoing global climate change. In this chapter we summarise our current state of knowledge regarding the oceanic distributions, formation and consumption pathways, and oceanic uptake and emissions of CO2, N2O and CH4, with a particular emphasis on the upper ocean. We specifically consider the role of the ocean in regulating the tropospheric content of these important radiative gases in a world in which their tropospheric content is rapidly increasing and estimate the impact of global change on their present and future oceanic uptake and/or emission. Finally, we evaluate the various uncertainties associated with the most commonly used methods for estimating uptake and emission and identify future research needs.
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This PhD thesis addresses the topic of large-scale interactions between climate and marine biogeochemistry. To this end, centennial simulations are performed under present and projected future climate conditions with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model containing a complex marine biogeochemistry model. The role of marine biogeochemistry in the climate system is first investigated. Phytoplankton solar radiation absorption in the upper ocean enhances sea surface temperatures and upper ocean stratification. The associated increase in ocean latent heat losses raises atmospheric temperatures and water vapor. Atmospheric circulation is modified at tropical and extratropical latitudes with impacts on precipitation, incoming solar radiation, and ocean circulation which cause upper-ocean heat content to decrease at tropical latitudes and to increase at middle latitudes. Marine biogeochemistry is tightly related to physical climate variability, which may vary in response to internal natural dynamics or to external forcing such as anthropogenic carbon emissions. Wind changes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of climate variability in the North Atlantic, affect ocean properties by means of momentum, heat, and freshwater fluxes. Changes in upper ocean temperature and mixing impact the spatial structure and seasonality of North Atlantic phytoplankton through light and nutrient limitations. These changes affect the capability of the North Atlantic Ocean of absorbing atmospheric CO2 and of fixing it inside sinking particulate organic matter. Low-frequency NAO phases determine a delayed response of ocean circulation, temperature and salinity, which in turn affects stratification and marine biogeochemistry. In 20th and 21st century simulations natural wind fluctuations in the North Pacific, related to the two dominant modes of atmospheric variability, affect the spatial structure and the magnitude of the phytoplankton spring bloom through changes in upper-ocean temperature and mixing. The impacts of human-induced emissions in the 21st century are generally larger than natural climate fluctuations, with the phytoplankton spring bloom starting one month earlier than in the 20th century and with ~50% lower magnitude. This PhD thesis advances the knowledge of bio-physical interactions within the global climate, highlighting the intrinsic coupling between physical climate and biosphere, and providing a framework on which future studies of Earth System change can be built on.
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Die Fragmentierung von Waldgebieten, der Verlust geeigneter Habitate, die Invasion exotischer Arten und globale Klimaveränderung haben auf Artengemeinschaften erhebliche Auswirkungen. Vögel dienen in vielen Fällen als Indikatorarten für Umweltveränderungen und, besonders, für Veränderungen im Zusammenhang mit globaler Erwärmung. In meiner Arbeit habe ich zuerst einen Literaturüberblick über die Auswirkungen globaler Klimaveränderung auf die Verbreitungsgebiete, den Artenreichtum und die Zusammensetzung von Vogelgemeinschaften dargestellt. Zahlreiche Untersuchungen zeigen, daß die Grenzen der Verbreitungsgebiete der meisten Vogelarten mit klimatischen Faktoren korrelieren. Verschiebungen der Verbreitungsgebiete in nördliche Richtung oder in höhere Regionen im Gebirge konnten bereits für viele temperate Vogelarten beobachtet werden. Weiterhin wurde ein zunehmender Artenreichtum besonders in nördlichen Breiten und in höheren Lagen für viele temperate Vogelgemeinschaften vorhergesagt. In trockenen Gebieten ist dagegen mit einer Abnahme des Artenreichtums zu rechnen. Im zweiten Teil meiner Arbeit habe ich untersucht, ob beobachtete Veränderungen in der Zusammensetzung europäischer Vogelgemeinschaften tatsächlich durch aktuelle Klimaveränderungen beeinflußt werden. Das Zugverhalten der Arten war dabei ein Schwerpunkt der Untersuchung, weil zu erwarten war, daß Vogelarten mit verschiedenem Zugverhalten unterschiedlich auf Klimaveränderungen reagieren. Ich habe ein Regressionsmodell genutzt, welches die räumliche Beziehung zwischen dem Anteil von Langstreckenziehern, Kurzstreckenziehern und Standvögeln in europäischen Vogelgemeinschaften und verschiedenen Klimavariablen beschreibt. Für 21 Gebiete in Europa habe ich Daten über beobachtete Veränderungen in der Struktur der Vogelgemeinschaften und isochrone Klimaveränderungen zusammengetragen. Mit Hilfe dieser Klimaveränderungen und dem räumlichen Regressionsmodell konnte ich berechnen, welche Veränderungen in den Vogelgemeinschaften aufgrund der veränderten Klimabedingungen zu erwarten wären und sie mit beobachteten Veränderungen vergleichen. Beobachtete und berechnete Veränderungen korrelierten signifikant miteinander. Die beobachteten Veränderungen konnten nicht durch räumliche Autokorrelationseffekte oder durch alternative Faktoren, wie z.B. Veränderungen in der Landnutzung, erklärt werden. Im dritten Teil der Arbeit untersuchte ich für eine mitteleuropäische Vogelgemeinschaft welchen Einfluß Habitatveränderungen, die Invasion exotischer Arten und die Klimaveränderung auf Veränderungen der Häufigkeit und Verbreitungsgröße der 159 Vogelarten am Bodensee zwischen 1980-1981 und 2000-2002 hatten. Dabei konnte gezeigt werden, daß Veränderungen in der regionalen Abundanz sowohl durch Habitatveränderungen als auch durch Klimavänderungen hervorgerufen wurden. Exotische Arten schienen in dieser Zeit keinen bedeutenden Einfluß zu haben. Besonders bei Agrarlandarten, Arten mit nördlicheren Verbreitungsgebieten und bei Langstreckenziehern konnten signifikante Abnahmen in der Abundanz beobachtet werden. Vor allem die anhaltenden negativen Bestandsveränderungen bei Langstreckenziehern und die in den letzten zehn Jahren aufgetretenen Abnahmen nördlicher verbreiteter Vogelarten deuten darauf hin, daß die Klimaveränderung aktuell als der größte Einfluß für Vögel in Europa angesehen werden muß. Insgesamt zeigen die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit, daß sich der anhaltende Druck auf die Umwelt in erster Linie durch Habitat- und Klimaveränderungen manifestiert.
A farm-level programming model to compare the atmospheric impact of conventional and organic farming
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A model is developed to represent the activity of a farm using the method of linear programming. Two are the main components of the model, the balance of soil fertility and the livestock nutrition. According to the first, the farm is supposed to have a total requirement of nitrogen, which is to be accomplished either through internal sources (manure) or through external sources (fertilisers). The second component describes the animal husbandry as having a nutritional requirement which must be satisfied through the internal production of arable crops or the acquisition of feed from the market. The farmer is supposed to maximise total net income from the agricultural and the zoo-technical activities by choosing one rotation among those available for climate and acclivity. The perspective of the analysis is one of a short period: the structure of the farm is supposed to be fixed without possibility to change the allocation of permanent crops and the amount of animal husbandry. The model is integrated with an environmental module that describes the role of the farm within the carbon-nitrogen cycle. On the one hand the farm allows storing carbon through the photosynthesis of the plants and the accumulation of carbon in the soil; on the other some activities of the farm emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The model is tested for some representative farms of the Emilia-Romagna region, showing to be capable to give different results for conventional and organic farming and providing first results concerning the different atmospheric impact. Relevant data about the representative farms and the feasible rotations are extracted from the FADN database, with an integration of the coefficients from the literature.
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rnNitric oxide (NO) is important for several chemical processes in the atmosphere. Together with nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ) it is better known as nitrogen oxide (NOx ). NOx is crucial for the production and destruction of ozone. In several reactions it catalyzes the oxidation of methane and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and in this context it is involved in the cycling of the hydroxyl radical (OH). OH is a reactive radical, capable of oxidizing most organic species. Therefore, OH is also called the “detergent” of the atmosphere. Nitric oxide originates from several sources: fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning, lightning and soils. Fossil fuel combustion is the largest source. The others are, depending on the reviewed literature, generally comparable to each other. The individual sources show a different temporal and spatial pattern in their magnitude of emission. Fossil fuel combustion is important in densely populated places, where NO from other sources is less important. In contrast NO emissions from soils (hereafter SNOx) or biomass burning are the dominant source of NOx in remote regions.rnBy applying an atmospheric chemistry global climate model (AC-GCM) I demonstrate that SNOx is responsible for a significant part of NOx in the atmosphere. Furthermore, it increases the O3 and OH mixing ratio substantially, leading to a ∼10% increase in the oxidizing efficiency of the atmosphere. Interestingly, through reduced O3 and OH mixing ratios in simulations without SNOx, the lifetime of NOx increases in regions with other dominating sources of NOx
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Mineral dust is an important component of the Earth's climate system and provides essential nutrientsrnto oceans and rain forests. During atmospheric transport, dust particles directly and indirectly influencernweather and climate. The strength of dust sources and characteristics of the transport, in turn, mightrnbe subject to climatic changes. Earth system models help for a better understanding of these complexrnmechanisms.rnrnThis thesis applies the global climate model ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) for simulationsrnof the mineral dust cycle under different climatic conditions. The prerequisite for suitable modelrnresults is the determination of the model setup reproducing the most realistic dust cycle in the recentrnclimate. Simulations with this setup are used to gain new insights into properties of the transatlanticrndust transport from Africa to the Americas and adaptations of the model's climate forcing factors allowrnfor investigations of the impact of climatic changes on the dust cycle.rnrnIn the first part, the most appropriate model setup is determined through a number of sensitivity experiments.rnIt uses the dust emission parametrisation from Tegen et al. 2002 and a spectral resolutionrnof T85, corresponding to a horizontal grid spacing of about 155 km. Coarser resolutions are not able tornaccurately reproduce emissions from important source regions such as the Bodele Depression in Chad orrnthe Taklamakan Desert in Central Asia. Furthermore, the representation of ageing and wet deposition ofrndust particles in the model requires a basic sulphur chemical mechanism. This setup is recommended forrnfuture simulations with EMAC focusing on mineral dust.rnrnOne major branch of the global dust cycle is the long-range transport from the world's largest dustrnsource, the Sahara, across the Atlantic Ocean. Seasonal variations of the main transport pathways to thernAmazon Basin in boreal winter and to the Caribbean during summer are well known and understood,rnand corroborated in this thesis. Both Eulerian and Lagrangian methods give estimates on the typicalrntransport times from the source regions to the deposition on the order of nine to ten days. Previously, arnhuge proportion of the dust transported across the Atlantic Ocean has been attributed to emissions fromrnthe Bodele Depression. However, the contribution of this hot spot to the total transport is very low inrnthe present results, although the overall emissions from this region are comparable. Both model resultsrnand data sets analysed earlier, such as satellite products, involve uncertainties and this controversy aboutrndust transport from the Bodele Depression calls for future investigations and clarification.rnrnAforementioned characteristics of the transatlantic dust transport just slightly change in simulationsrnrepresenting climatic conditions of the Little Ice Age in the middle of the last millennium with meanrnnear-surface cooling of 0.5 to 1 K. However, intensification of the West African summer monsoon duringrnthe Little Ice Age is associated with higher dust emissions from North African source regions and wetterrnconditions in the Sahel. Furthermore, the Indian Monsoon and dust emissions from the Arabian Peninsula,rnwhich are affected by this circulation, are intensified during the Little Ice Age, whereas the annual globalrndust budget is similar in both climate epochs. Simulated dust emission fluxes are particularly influencedrnby the surface parameters. Modifications of the model do not affect those in this thesis, to be able tornascribe all differences in the results to changed forcing factors, such as greenhouse gas concentrations.rnDue to meagre comparison data sets, the verification of results presented here is problematic. Deeperrnknowledge about the dust cycle during the Little Ice Age can be obtained by future simulations, based onrnthis work, and additionally using improved reconstructions of surface parameters. Better evaluation ofrnsuch simulations would be possible by refining the temporal resolution of reconstructed dust depositionrnfluxes from existing ice and marine sediment cores.
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Inspired by the need for a representation of the biomass burning emissions injection height in the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry model (EMAC)
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The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to review the pros and cons of the scenarios of past anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) developed during the last ten years, (2) to discuss issues related to pollen-based reconstruction of the past land-cover and introduce a new method, REVEALS (Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites), to infer long-term records of past land-cover from pollen data, (3) to present a new project (LANDCLIM: LAND cover – CLIMate interactions in NW Europe during the Holocene) currently underway, and show preliminary results of REVEALS reconstructions of the regional land-cover in the Czech Republic for five selected time windows of the Holocene, and (4) to discuss the implications and future directions in climate and vegetation/land-cover modeling, and in the assessment of the effects of human-induced changes in land-cover on the regional climate through altered feedbacks. The existing ALCC scenarios show large discrepancies between them, and few cover time periods older than AD 800. When these scenarios are used to assess the impact of human land-use on climate, contrasting results are obtained. It emphasizes the need for methods such as the REVEALS model-based land-cover reconstructions. They might help to fine-tune descriptions of past land-cover and lead to a better understanding of how long-term changes in ALCC might have influenced climate. The REVEALS model is demonstrated to provide better estimates of the regional vegetation/land-cover changes than the traditional use of pollen percentages. This will achieve a robust assessment of land cover at regional- to continental-spatial scale throughout the Holocene. We present maps of REVEALS estimates for the percentage cover of 10 plant functional types (PFTs) at 200 BP and 6000 BP, and of the two open-land PFTs "grassland" and "agricultural land" at five time-windows from 6000 BP to recent time. The LANDCLIM results are expected to provide crucial data to reassess ALCC estimates for a better understanding of the land suface-atmosphere interactions.
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Editor's note: The text of this article originally appeared as the final chapter of a brochure entitled Mountains and Climate Change—From Understanding to Action, prepared at the Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern, Switzerland, for presentation by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) at a side event at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen on 12 December 2009. Chapters of the brochure deal with various aspects of climate change and its impact in mountain regions. In light of the significance of the Copenhagen COP 15 conference, the editors of this publication believe MRD's readers will be interested in reading this summary written from the perspective of Swiss researchers and development experts. The full brochure may be viewed and downloaded at www.cde.unibe.ch/Research/MA_Re.asp
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Instrumental daily series of temperature are often affected by inhomogeneities. Several methods are available for their correction at monthly and annual scales, whereas few exist for daily data. Here, an improved version of the higher-order moments (HOM) method, the higher-order moments for autocorrelated data (HOMAD), is proposed. HOMAD addresses the main weaknesses of HOM, namely, data autocorrelation and the subjective choice of regression parameters. Simulated series are used for the comparison of both methodologies. The results highlight and reveal that HOMAD outperforms HOM for small samples. Additionally, three daily temperature time series from stations in the eastern Mediterranean are used to show the impact of homogenization procedures on trend estimation and the assessment of extremes. HOMAD provides an improved correction of daily temperature time series and further supports the use of corrected daily temperature time series prior to climate change assessment.
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Despite research gathered in the Campus Climate Report, I believe that it underrepresented the student experience of the social scene. The document primarily served as an identification tool for four major problems on campus: binge drinking, sexual assault, diversity, and disengagement in the classroom. Double Take Project also identifies similar issues however, this project uses theatrical techniques to gather the anecdotal reality of the student perspective. Double Take Project expands beyond the Campus Climate Report to inspire dialogue in a variety of student-to-student interactions and, more importantly, the project seeks action and solution plans. The social scene dominates our culture and its many issues result in concern for the safety, self-identity, and development of Bucknell students into thriving adults. Double Take Project is rooted in the belief that theatre is a palpable tool for social change. Over the course of many events, Double Take Project has utilized facets of theatre to provide opportunities to voice discontent, widen perception of normalcy on campus, and inspire confidence to act on personal beliefs. The Double Take Project uses many Applied Theatre methods to impact the social scene. For example, I conducted 36 student interviews and transformed the stories into a one-woman show, Rage Behind Curtains, which I performed at multiple venues across campus. I also used interviews to create a radio show airing one story per day. I conducted ten workshops with student groups, Fraternities and Sororities, and in the classroom utilizing Augusto Boal’s Theatre of the Oppressed (TO) techniques. I also created a “social scene confessional” where I stood outside the Elaine Langone Center with a sign that read, “Tell me a story about the social scene” from a wide variety of Bucknell students. Finally, I have assembled a Forum Theatre Company based on Augusto Boal’s method of the spect-actor, utilizing participants as both actors and spectators in the theatre piece. All of the names indicated in this paper have been altered to protect the identity of the participants. While planning events and conducting various theatrical experiences, I learned that there are a series of internal and external issues contributing to our social environment. Internally, students are conflicted with personal beliefs while battling outward social pressure. Whether they are on the outskirts or center of the social scene determines their response to this conflict. For example, I have discovered that students on the borders of the social culture respond with criticism because they feel excluded, whereas the student’s centrally involved critique the culture in private and while their persona appears to not want change. Externally, there are many structural issues that contribute to the current social climate such as without Fraternity meal plans, Cafeteria space is not sufficient to feed all of the students, exclusive party culture, and gendered housing. Through meetings with Deans and staff, I have learned there are also problems between administration and students, resulting in resentment and blame. Although addressing structural issues would instigate immediate change, in my opinion, internal student conflicts are the primary cause for the current negative social atmosphere. I believe that pressure to conform is rooted in lack of personal identity. Because students simply do not know themselves, they form strong social groups that become the definition of themselves. Without confident self-awareness, large and powerful groups coerce students to accept social norms resulting in the individual’s outward distaste for change, yet internal discomfort.
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There is increasing recognition among those in higher education that it is no longer adequate to train students in a specific field or industry. Instead, the push is more towards producing well-rounded students. In order to do so, all of a university’s resources must come together and the climate on campus must be one that supportscollaboration. This report is a re-examination of the climate for collaboration on the campus of a private liberal arts university in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. It is a follow up to a similar investigation conducted on the same campus by Victor Arcelus(2008) five years earlier. In the interim, the university had re-configured its organizational structure, combining separate academic and student affairs divisions into a single unit overseen by the Provost. Additionally, the university had experienced turnover in several key leadership positions, including those of the President and the chief academic and student affairs officers. The purpose of this investigation, therefore, was to gauge the immediate impact of these changes on conditions for collaboration, which when present, advance student learning and development. Through interviews with six men and women, information was collected on the perceived climate for collaboration between academic and student affairs personnel.Analysis of the interview transcripts revealed that, depending on the position of the interviewee within the university, conditions on campus were seen as either improved or largely unchanged as a result of the transition in leadership and the structural merger of the two divisions.
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Human development causes degradation of stream ecosystems due to impacts on channel morphology, hydrology, and water quality. Urbanization, the second leading cause of stream impairment, increases the amount of impervious surface cover, thus reducing infiltration and increasing surface runoff of precipitation, which ultimately affects stream hydrologic process and aquatic biodiversity. The main objective of this study was to assess the overall health of Miller Run, a small tributary of the Bull Run and Susquehanna River watersheds, through an integrative hydrologic and water quality approach in order to determine the degree of Bucknell University’s impact on the stream. Hydrologic conditions, including stage and discharge, and water quality conditions, including total suspended solids, ion, nutrient, and dissolved metal concentrations, specific conductivity, pH, and temperature, were measured and evaluated at two sampling sites (upstream and downstream of Bucknell’s main campus) during various rain events from September 2007 to March 2008. The primary focus of the stream analysis was based on one main rain event on 26 February 2008. The results provided evidence that Miller Run is impacted by Bucknell’s campus. From a hydrologic perspective, the stream’s hydrograph showed the exact opposite pattern of what would be expected from a ‘normal’ stream. Miller run had a flashier downstream hydrograph and a broader upstream hydrograph, which was more than likely due to the increased amount of impervious surface cover throughout the downstream half of the watershed. From a water quality perspective, sediment loads increased at a faster rate and were significantly higher downstream compared to upstream. These elevated sediment concentrations were probably the combined result of sediment runoff from upstream and downstream construction sites that were being developed over the course of the study. Sodium, chloride, and potassium concentrations, in addition to specific conductivity, also significantly increased downstream of Bucknell’s campus due to the runoff of road salts. Calcium and magnesium concentrations did not appear to be impacted by urbanization, although they did demonstrate a significant dilution effect downstream. The downstream site was not directly affected by elevated nitrate concentrations; however, soluble reactive phosphorus concentrations tended to increase downstream and ammonium concentrations significantly peaked partway through the rain event downstream. These patterns suggest that Miller Run may be impacted by nutrient runoff from the golf course, athletic fields, and/or fertilizers applications on the main campus. Dissolved manganese and iron concentrations also appeared to slightly increase downstream, demonstrating the affect of urban runoff from roads and parking lots. pH and temperature both decreased farther downstream, but neither showed a significant impact of urbanization. More studies are necessary to determine how Miller Run responds to changes in season, climate, precipitation intensity, and land-use. This study represents the base-line analysis of Miller Run’s current hydrologic and water quality conditions; based on these initial findings, Bucknell should strongly consider modifications to improve storm water management practices and to reduce the campus’s overall impact on the stream in order to enhance and preserve the integrity of its natural water resources.