Independent replication and meta-analysis for endometriosis risk loci

Endometriosis is a complex disease that affects 6-10% of women in their reproductive years and 20-50% of women with infertility. Genome-wide and candidate-gene association studies for endometriosis have identified 10 independent risk loci, and of these, nine (rs7521902, rs13394619, rs4141819, rs6542095, rs1519761, rs7739264, rs12700667, rs1537377, and rs10859871) are polymorphic in European populations. Here we investigate the replication of nine SNP loci in 998 laparoscopically and histologically confirmed endometriosis cases and 783 disease-free controls from Belgium. SNPs rs7521902, rs13394619, and rs6542095 show nominally significant (p <.05) associations with endometriosis, while the directions of effect for seven SNPs are consistent with the original reports. Association of rs6542095 at the IL1A locus with 'All' (p =.066) and 'Grade-B' (p =.01) endometriosis is noteworthy because this is the first successful replication in an independent population. Meta-analysis with the published results yields genome-wide significant evidence for rs7521902, rs13394619, rs6542095, rs12700667, rs7739264, and rs1537377. Notably, three coding variants in GREB1 (near rs13394619) and CDKN2B-AS1 (near rs1537377) also showed nominally significant associations with endometriosis. Overall, this study provides important replication in a uniquely characterized independent population, and indicates that the majority of the original genome-wide association findings are not due to chance alone. © The Author(s) 2015.

Association between endometriosis and the interleukin 1A (IL1A) locus

STUDY QUESTION Are single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at the interleukin 1A (IL1A) gene locus associated with endometriosis risk? SUMMARY ANSWER We found evidence for strong association between IL1A SNPs and endometriosis risk. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Genetic factors contribute substantially to the complex aetiology of endometriosis and the disease has an estimated heritability of ∼51%. We, and others, have conducted genome-wide association (GWA) studies for endometriosis, which identified a total of nine independent risk loci. Recently, two small Japanese studies reported eight SNPs (rs6542095, rs11677416, rs3783550, rs3783525, rs3783553, rs2856836, rs1304037 and rs17561) at the IL1A gene locus as suggestively associated with endometriosis risk. There is also evidence of a link between inflammation and endometriosis. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION We sought to further investigate the eight IL1A SNPs for association with endometriosis using an independent sample of 3908 endometriosis cases and 8568 controls of European and Japanese ancestry. The study was conducted between October 2013 and July 2014. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS By leveraging GWA data from our previous multi-ethnic GWA meta-analysis for endometriosis, we imputed variants in the IL1A region, using a recent 1000 Genomes reference panel. After combining summary statistics for the eight SNPs from our European and Japanese imputed data with the published results, a fixed-effect meta-analysis was performed. An additional meta-analysis restricted to endometriosis cases with moderate-to-severe (revised American Fertility Society stage 3 or 4) disease versus controls was also performed. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE All eight IL1A SNPs successfully replicated at P < 0.014 in the European imputed data with concordant direction and similar size to the effects reported in the original Japanese studies. Of these, three SNPs (rs6542095, rs3783550 and rs3783525) also showed association with endometriosis at a nominal P < 0.05 in our independent Japanese sample. Fixed-effect meta-analysis of the eight SNPs for moderate-to-severe endometriosis produced a genome-wide significant association for rs6542095 (odds ratio = 1.21; 95% confidence interval = 1.13–1.29; P = 3.43 × 10−8). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION The meta-analysis for moderate-to-severe endometriosis included results of moderate-to-severe endometriosis cases from our European data sets and all endometriosis cases from the Japanese data sets, as disease stage information was not available for endometriosis cases in the Japanese data sets. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS SNP rs6542095 is located ∼2.3 kb downstream of the IL1A gene and ∼6.9 kb upstream of cytoskeleton-associated protein 2-like (CKAP2L) gene. The IL1A gene encodes the IL1a protein, a member of the interleukin 1 cytokine family which is involved in various immune responses and inflammatory processes. These results provide important replication in an independent Japanese sample and, for the first time, association of the IL1A locus in endometriosis patients of European ancestry. SNPs within the IL1A locus may regulate other genes, but if IL1A is the target, our results provide supporting evidence for a link between inflammatory responses and the pathogenesis of endometriosis. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) The research was funded by grants from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and Wellcome Trust. None of the authors has competing interests for the study.

Functional evaluation of genetic variants associated with endometriosis near GREB1

STUDY QUESTION: Do DNA variants in the growth regulation by estrogen in breast cancer 1 (GREB1) region regulate endometrial GREB1 expression and increase the risk of developing endometriosis in women? SUMMARY ANSWER: We identified new single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with strong association with endometriosis at the GREB1 locus although we did not detect altered GREB1 expression in endometriosis patients with defined genotypes. WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN: Genome-wide association studies have identified the GREB1 region on chromosome 2p25.1 for increasing endometriosis risk. The differential expression of GREB1 has also been reported by others in association with endometriosis disease phenotype. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Fine mapping studies comprehensively evaluated SNPs within the GREB1 region in a large-scale data set (>2500 cases and >4000 controls). Publicly available bioinformatics tools were employed to functionally annotate SNPs showing the strongest association signal with endometriosis risk. Endometrial GREB1 mRNA and protein expression was studied with respect to phases of the menstrual cycle (n = 2-45 per cycle stage) and expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis for significant SNPs were undertaken for GREB1 [mRNA (n = 94) and protein (n = 44) in endometrium]. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Participants in this study are females who provided blood and/or endometrial tissue samples in a hospital setting. The key SNPs were genotyped using Sequenom MassARRAY. The functional roles and regulatory annotations for identified SNPs are predicted by various publicly available bioinformatics tools. Endometrial GREB1 expression work employed qRT-PCR, western blotting and immunohistochemistry studies. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Fine mapping results identified a number of SNPs showing stronger association (0.004 < P < 0.032) with endometriosis risk than the original GWAS SNP (rs13394619) (P = 0.034). Some of these SNPs were predicted to have functional roles, for example, interaction with transcription factor motifs. The haplotype (a combination of alleles) formed by the risk alleles from two common SNPs showed significant association (P = 0.026) with endometriosis and epistasis analysis showed no evidence for interaction between the two SNPs, suggesting an additive effect of SNPs on endometriosis risk. In normal human endometrium, GREB1 protein expression was altered depending on the cycle stage (significantly different in late proliferative versus late secretory, P < 0.05) and cell type (glandular epithelium, not stromal cells). However, GREB1 expression in endometriosis cases versus controls and eQTL analyses did not reveal any significant changes. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: In silico prediction tools are generally based on cell lines different to our tissue and disease of interest. Functional annotations drawn from these analyses should be considered with this limitation in mind. We identified cell-specific and hormone-specific changes in GREB1 protein expression. The lack of a significant difference observed following our GREB1 expression studies may be the result of moderate power on mixed cell populations in the endometrial tissue samples. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This study further implicates the GREB1 region on chromosome 2p25.1 and the GREB1 gene with involvement in endometriosis risk. More detailed functional studies are required to determine the role of the novel GREB1 transcripts in endometriosis pathophysiology. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: Funding for this work was provided by NHMRC Project Grants APP1012245, APP1026033, APP1049472 and APP1046880. There are no competing interests.

No evidence for genetic association with the let-7 microRNA-binding site or other common KRAS variants in risk of endometriosis

STUDY QUESTION Is there a contribution of the minor allele at the KRAS single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs61764370 in the let-7 microRNA-binding site to endometriosis risk? SUMMARY ANSWER We found no evidence for association between endometriosis risk and rs61764370 or any other SNPs in KRAS. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY The rs61764370 SNP in the 3' untranslated region of the KRAS gene is predicted to disrupt a complementary binding site (LCS6) for the let-7 microRNA, and was recently reported to be at a high frequency (31%) in 132 women of varying ancestry with endometriosis compared with frequencies in a database of population controls (up to 7.6% depending on ancestry), suggesting a strong effect of this KRAS SNP in the aetiology of endometriosis. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE AND DURATION This was a case-control study with a total of 11 206 subjects. The study was performed between February 2012 and July 2012. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTINGAND METHODS We first investigated a possible association between common markers in KRAS and endometriosis risk from our genome-wide association (GWA) data in 3194 surgically confirmed endometriosis cases and 7060 controls of European ancestry. Although rs61764370 was not genotyped on the GWA arrays, five SNPs typed in the study were highly correlated with this variant. The rs61764370 and two SNPs highly correlated with rs61764370 were then genotyped in 933 endometriosis cases and 952 controls using the Sequenom MassARRAY platform. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE There was no evidence for an association between rs61764370 and endometriosis risk P = 0.411 and odds ratio = 1.10 (95% confidence intervals: 0.88-1.36). We also found no evidence for an association between the highly correlated SNP rs17387019 and endometriosis. Their minor allele frequencies in cases and controls were of 0.087-0.091 similar to the population frequency reported previously for this variant in controls. Analyses of endometriosis cases with revised American Fertility Society stage III/IV disease also showed no evidence for an association between these SNPs and endometriosis risk. LIMITATIONS AND REASONS FOR CAUTION The GWA and genotyped data sets were not independent since individuals and cases from some families overlap. Controls in our GWA study were not screened for endometriosis. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS The key SNP, rs61764370, was genotyped in a subset of samples. Our results do not support the suggestion that carrying the minor allele at rs61764370 contributes to a significant number of endometriosis cases and rs61764370 is, therefore, unlikely to be a useful marker of endometriosis risk. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) The research was funded by grants from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and Wellcome Trust. None of the authors has competing interests for the study.

GWAS of butyrylcholinesterase activity identifies four novel loci, independent effects within BCHE and secondary associations with metabolic risk factors

Serum butyrylcholinesterase (BCHE) activity is associated with obesity, blood pressure and biomarkers of cardiovascular and diabetes risk. We have conducted a genome-wide association scan to discover genetic variants affecting BCHE activity, and to clarify whether the associations between BCHE activity and cardiometabolic risk factors are caused by variation in BCHE or whether BCHE variation is secondary to the metabolic abnormalities. We measured serum BCHE in adolescents and adults from three cohorts of Australian twin and family studies. The genotypes from approximately 2.4 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were available in 8791 participants with BCHE measurements. We detected significant associations with BCHE activity at three independent groups of SNPs at the BCHE locus (P = 5.8 x 10(-262), 7.8 x 10(-47), 2.9 x 10(-12)) and at four other loci: RNPEP (P = 9.4 x 10(-16)), RAPH1-ABI2 (P = 4.1 x 10(-18)), UGT1A1 (P = 4.0 x 10(-8)) and an intergenic region on chromosome 8 (P = 1.4 x 10(-8)). These loci affecting BCHE activity were not associated with metabolic risk factors. On the other hand, SNPs in genes previously associated with metabolic risk had effects on BCHE activity more often than can be explained by chance. In particular, SNPs within FTO and GCKR were associated with BCHE activity, but their effects were partly mediated by body mass index and triglycerides, respectively. We conclude that variation in BCHE activity is due to multiple variants across the spectrum from uncommon/large effect to common/small effect, and partly results from (rather than causes) metabolic abnormalities.

A genome wide linkage scan for dizygotic twinning in 525 families of mothers of dizygotic twins

BACKGROUND: The tendency to conceive dizygotic (DZ) twins is a complex trait influenced by genetic and environmental factors. To search for new candidate loci for twinning, we conducted a genome-wide linkage scan in 525 families using microsatellite and single nucleotide polymorphism marker panels. METHODS AND RESULTS: Non-parametric linkage analyses, including 523 families containing a total of 1115 mothers of DZ twins (MODZT) from Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) and The Netherlands (NL), produced four linkage peaks above the threshold for suggestive linkage, including a highly suggestive peak at the extreme telomeric end of chromosome 6 with an exponential logarithm of odds \[(exp)LOD] score of 2.813 (P = 0.0002). Since the DZ twinning rate increases steeply with maternal age independent of genetic effects, we also investigated linkage including only families where at least one MODZT gave birth to her first set of twins before the age of 30. These analyses produced a maximum expLOD score of 2.718 (P = 0.0002), largely due to linkage signal from the ANZ cohort, however, ordered subset analyses indicated this result is most likely a chance finding in the combined dataset. Linkage analyses were also performed for two large DZ twinning families from the USA, one of which produced a peak on chromosome 2 in the region of two potential candidate genes. Sequencing of FSHR and FIGLA, along with INHBB in MODZTs from two large NL families with family specific linkage peaks directly over this gene, revealed a potentially functional variant in the 5' untranslated region of FSHR that segregated with the DZ twinning phenotype in the Utah family. CONCLUSION: Our data provide further evidence for complex inheritance of familial DZ twinning.

Liveweight prediction from hip height, condition score, fetal age and breed in tropical female cattle

Hip height, body condition, subcutaneous fat, eye muscle area, percentage Bos taurus, fetal age and diet digestibility data were collected at 17 372 assessments on 2181 Brahman and tropical composite (average 28% Brahman) female cattle aged between 0.5 and 7.5 years of age at five sites across Queensland. The study validated the subtraction of previously published estimates of gravid uterine weight to correct liveweight to the non-pregnant status. Hip height and liveweight were linearly related (Brahman: P<0.001, R-2 = 58%; tropical composite P<0.001, R-2 = 67%). Liveweight varied by 12-14% per body condition score (5-point scale) as cows differed from moderate condition (P<0.01). Parallel effects were also found due to subcutaneous rump fat depth and eye muscle area, which were highly correlated with each other and body condition score (r = 0.7-0.8). Liveweight differed from average by 1.65-1.66% per mm of rump fat depth and 0.71-0.76% per cm(2) of eye muscle area (P<0.01). Estimated dry matter digestibility of pasture consumed had no consistent effect in predicting liveweight and was therefore excluded from final models. A method developed to estimate full liveweight of post-weaning age female beef cattle from the other measures taken predicted liveweight to within 10 and 23% of that recorded for 65 and 95% of cases, respectively. For a 95% chance of predicted group average liveweight (body condition score used) being within 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1% of actual group average liveweight required 23, 36, 62, 137 and 521 females, respectively, if precision and accuracy of measurements matches that used in the research. Non-pregnant Bos taurus female cattle were calculated to be 10-40% heavier than Brahmans at the same hip height and body condition, indicating a substantial conformational difference. The liveweight prediction method was applied to a validation population of 83 unrelated groups of cattle weighed in extensive commercial situations on 119 days over 18 months (20 917 assessments). Liveweight prediction in the validation population exceeded average recorded liveweight for weigh groups by an average of 19 kg (similar to 6%) demonstrating the difficulty of achieving accurate and precise animal measurements under extensive commercial grazing conditions.

Species-site matching in mixed species plantations of native trees in tropical Australia

Mixed species plantations using native trees are increasingly being considered for sustainable timber production. Successful application of mixed species forestry systems requires knowledge of the potential spatial interaction between species in order to minimise the chance of dominance and suppression and to maximise wood production. Here, we examined species performances across 52 experimental plots of tree mixtures established on cleared rainforest land to analyse relationships between the growth of component species and climate and soil conditions. We derived site index (SI) equations for ten priority species to evaluate performance and site preferences. Variation in SI of focus species demonstrated that there are strong species-specific responses to climate and soil variables. The best predictor of tree growth for rainforest species Elaeocarpus grandis and Flindersia brayleyana was soil type, as trees grew significantly better on well-draining than on poorly drained soil profiles. Both E. grandis and Eucalyptus pellita showed strong growth response to variation in mean rain days per month. Our study generates understanding of the relative performance of species in mixed species plantations in the Wet Tropics of Australia and improves our ability to predict species growth compatibilities at potential planting sites within the region. Given appropriate species selections and plantation design, mixed plantations of high-value native timber species are capable of sustaining relatively high productivity at a range of sites up to age 10 years, and may offer a feasible approach for large-scale reforestation.

Are high-impact species predictable? An analysis of naturalised grasses in northern Australia

Predicting which species are likely to cause serious impacts in the future is crucial for targeting management efforts, but the characteristics of such species remain largely unconfirmed. We use data and expert opinion on tropical and subtropical grasses naturalised in Australia since European settlement to identify naturalised and high-impact species and subsequently to test whether high-impact species are predictable. High-impact species for the three main affected sectors (environment, pastoral and agriculture) were determined by assessing evidence against pre-defined criteria. Twenty-one of the 155 naturalised species (14%) were classified as high-impact, including four that affected more than one sector. High-impact species were more likely to have faster spread rates (regions invaded per decade) and to be semi-aquatic. Spread rate was best explained by whether species had been actively spread (as pasture), and time since naturalisation, but may not be explanatory as it was tightly correlated with range size and incidence rate. Giving more weight to minimising the chance of overlooking high-impact species, a priority for biosecurity, meant a wider range of predictors was required to identify high-impact species, and the predictive power of the models was reduced. By-sector analysis of predictors of high impact species was limited by their relative rarity, but showed sector differences, including to the universal predictors (spread rate and habitat) and life history. Furthermore, species causing high impact to agriculture have changed in the past 10 years with changes in farming practice, highlighting the importance of context in determining impact. A rationale for invasion ecology is to improve the prediction and response to future threats. Although our study identifies some universal predictors, it suggests improved prediction will require a far greater emphasis on impact rather than invasiveness, and will need to account for the individual circumstances of affected sectors and the relative rarity of high-impact species.

Genetic diversity and microcystin production by Anabaena in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea

Syanobakteerit (sinilevät) ovat olleet Itämeressä koko nykymuotoisen Itämeren ajan, sillä paleolimnologiset todisteet niiden olemassaolosta Itämeren alueella ovat noin 7000 vuoden takaa. Syanobakteerien massaesiintymät eli kukinnat ovat kuitenkin sekä levinneet laajemmille alueille että tulleet voimakkaimmiksi viimeisten vuosikymmenien aikana. Tähän on osasyynä ihmisten aiheuttama kuormitus, joka rehevöittää Itämerta. Suomenlahti, jota tämä tutkimus käsittelee, on kärsinyt tästä rehevöitymiskehityksestä muita Itämeren altaita enemmän. Syanobakteerit muodostavat jokakesäisiä kukintoja Suomenlahdella - niin sen avomerialueilla kuin rannoillakin. Yleisimmät kukintoja muodostavat syanobakteerisuvut ovat Nodularia, Anabaena ja Aphanizomenon. Kukinnat aiheuttavat paitsi esteettistä haittaa myös terveydellisen riskitekijän. Niiden myrkyllisyys liitetään usein Nodularia-suvun tuottamaan nodulariini-maksamyrkkyyn. Itämeren Aphanizomenon-suvun on todettu olevan myrkytön. Vaikka Itämeren kukintoja aiheuttavista Nodularia- ja Aphanizomenon-syanobakteereista tiedetään varsin paljon, on molekyylimenetelmiin pohjautuva syanobakteeritutkimus ohittanut Itämeren Anabaena-suvun monelta osin. Tämän työn tarkoituksena oli syventää käsitystämme Itämeren Anabaena-syanobakteerista, sen mahdollisesta myrkyllisyydestä, geneettisestä monimuotoisuudesta ja fylogeneettisista sukulaisuussuhteista. Tässä työssä eristettiin 49 planktista Anabaena-kantaa, joista viisi tuottivat mikrokystiinejä. Tämä oli ensimmäinen yksiselitteinen todiste, että Itämeren Anabaena tuottaa maksamyrkyllisiä mikrokystiini-yhdisteitä. Jokainen eristetty myrkyllinen Anabaena-kanta tuotti useita mikrokystiini-variantteja. Lisäksi mikrokystiinejä löydettiin kukintanäytteistä, joissa oli myrkkyä syntetisoivia geenejä sisältäneitä Anabaena-syanobakteereita. Myrkkyjä löydettiin molempina tutkimusvuosina 2003 ja 2004. Myrkkyjen esiintyminen ei siten ollut vain yksittäinen ilmiö. Tässä työssä saimme viitteitä siitä, että maksamyrkyllinen Anabaena-syanobakteeri esiintyisi vähäsuolaisissa vesissä. Tämä riippuvuussuhde jää kuitenkin tulevien tutkimuksien selvitettäväksi. Tässä työssä havaittiin mikrokystiinisyntetaasi-geenien inaktivoituminen Itämeren Anabaena-kannassa ja kukintanäytteissä. Kuvasimme Anabaena-kannan mikrokystiinisyntetaasigeenien sisältä insertioita, jotka hyvin todennäköisesti inaktivoivat myrkyntuoton. Insertion sisältäneeltä kannalta löysimme kuitenkin kaikki mikrokystiinisyntetaasigeenit osoittaen, että geenien olemassaolo ei välttämättä varmista kannan mikrokystiinintuottoa. Mielenkiintoista oli se, että inaktivaation aiheuttavia insertioita löytyi kukintanäytteistä molemmilta tutkimusvuosilta. Vastaavia insertioita ei kuitenkaan löydetty makean veden Anabaena-kannoista tai järvinäytteistä. On yleistä, että syanobakteerikukinnoista löytyy usean syanobakteerisuvun edustajia. Myrkyllisiä sukuja tai lajeja ei voida kuitenkaan erottaa mikroskooppisesti myrkyttömistä. Käsillä olevassa tutkimuksessa kehitettiin molekyylimenetelmä, jolla on mahdollista määrittää kukinnan mahdollisesti maksamyrkylliset syanobakteerisuvut. Tätä menetelmää sovellettiin Itämeren kukintojen tutkimiseen. Itämeren pintavesistä ja ranta-alueiden pohjasta eristetyt Anabaena-kannat osoittautuivat geneettisesti monimuotoisiksi. Tämä Anabaena-syanobakteerien geneettinen monimuotoisuus vahvistettiin monistamalla geenejä suoraan kukintanäytteistä ilman kantojen eristystä. Makeiden vesien ja Itämeren Anabaena-kannat ovat geneettisesti hyvin samankaltaisia. Geneettisissä vertailuissa kävi kuitenkin ilmi, että pohjassa elävien Anabaena-kantojen geneettinen monimuotoisuus oli suurempaa kuin pintavesistä eristettyjen kantojen. Itämeren Anabaena-kantojen sekvenssit muodostivat omia ryhmiä sukupuun sisällä, jolloin on mahdollista, että nämä edustavat Itämeren omia Anabaena-ekotyyppejä. Tämä tutkimus oli ensimmäinen, jossa uusin molekyylimenetelmin systemaattisesti selvitettiin Itämeren Anabaena-syanobakteerin geneettistä populaatiorakennetta, fylogeniaa ja myrkyntuottoa. Tulevaisuudessa monitorointitutkimuksissa on otettava huomioon myös Itämeren Anabaena-syanobakteerin mahdollinen maksamyrkyntuotto – erityisesti vähäsuolaisemmilla rannikkovesillä.

Estimating Resource Requirements to Staff a Response to a Medium to Large Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease in Australia

A recent report to the Australian Government identified concerns relating to Australia's capacity to respond to a medium to large outbreak of FMD. To assess the resources required, the AusSpread disease simulation model was used to develop a plausible outbreak scenario that included 62 infected premises in five different states at the time of detection, 28 days after the disease entered the first property in Victoria. Movements of infected animals and/or contaminated product/equipment led to smaller outbreaks in NSW, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. With unlimited staff resources, the outbreak was eradicated in 63 days with 54 infected premises and a 98% chance of eradication within 3 months. This unconstrained response was estimated to involve 2724 personnel. Unlimited personnel was considered unrealistic, and therefore, the course of the outbreak was modelled using three levels of staffing and the probability of achieving eradication within 3 or 6 months of introduction determined. Under the baseline staffing level, there was only a 16% probability that the outbreak would be eradicated within 3 months, and a 60% probability of eradication in 6 months. Deployment of an additional 60 personnel in the first 3 weeks of the response increased the likelihood of eradication in 3 months to 68%, and 100% in 6 months. Deployment of further personnel incrementally increased the likelihood of timely eradication and decreased the duration and size of the outbreak. Targeted use of vaccination in high-risk areas coupled with the baseline personnel resources increased the probability of eradication in 3 months to 74% and to 100% in 6 months. This required 25 vaccination teams commencing 12 days into the control program increasing to 50 vaccination teams 3 weeks later. Deploying an equal number of additional personnel to surveillance and infected premises operations was equally effective in reducing the outbreak size and duration.

Dining experience in elsewhere

Globalisation leads people getting a chance to move to a different place, to dine in a different context and to experience a different lifestyle. This paper evaluates the designs which offer dining experience in elsewhere, a changed context. A logical narrative review of literature has been conducted to clarify the patterns that restaurant practitioners, designers and social science researchers used for developing dining experience in elsewhere. The paper defines two hourglass balance pattern via food between diner and dining experience providers, as well as a set of interactive strategies in dining experience design. The former can be regarded as an example of the latter pattern. The findings indicate an empathetic setting design framework is needed in future research. This is the first paper that examines the dining experience in light of the atmosphere caused by people’s physical and psychological mobility flow in modern society. The findings provide an access to establish dining experience design framework in future research, that is, achieve various levels of diners’ needs in dining setting design by distributing the multisensory effects to activate diners’ involvement in the dining experience.

Computational Techniques for Haplotype Inference and for Local Alignment Significance

This thesis which consists of an introduction and four peer-reviewed original publications studies the problems of haplotype inference (haplotyping) and local alignment significance. The problems studied here belong to the broad area of bioinformatics and computational biology. The presented solutions are computationally fast and accurate, which makes them practical in high-throughput sequence data analysis. Haplotype inference is a computational problem where the goal is to estimate haplotypes from a sample of genotypes as accurately as possible. This problem is important as the direct measurement of haplotypes is difficult, whereas the genotypes are easier to quantify. Haplotypes are the key-players when studying for example the genetic causes of diseases. In this thesis, three methods are presented for the haplotype inference problem referred to as HaploParser, HIT, and BACH. HaploParser is based on a combinatorial mosaic model and hierarchical parsing that together mimic recombinations and point-mutations in a biologically plausible way. In this mosaic model, the current population is assumed to be evolved from a small founder population. Thus, the haplotypes of the current population are recombinations of the (implicit) founder haplotypes with some point--mutations. HIT (Haplotype Inference Technique) uses a hidden Markov model for haplotypes and efficient algorithms are presented to learn this model from genotype data. The model structure of HIT is analogous to the mosaic model of HaploParser with founder haplotypes. Therefore, it can be seen as a probabilistic model of recombinations and point-mutations. BACH (Bayesian Context-based Haplotyping) utilizes a context tree weighting algorithm to efficiently sum over all variable-length Markov chains to evaluate the posterior probability of a haplotype configuration. Algorithms are presented that find haplotype configurations with high posterior probability. BACH is the most accurate method presented in this thesis and has comparable performance to the best available software for haplotype inference. Local alignment significance is a computational problem where one is interested in whether the local similarities in two sequences are due to the fact that the sequences are related or just by chance. Similarity of sequences is measured by their best local alignment score and from that, a p-value is computed. This p-value is the probability of picking two sequences from the null model that have as good or better best local alignment score. Local alignment significance is used routinely for example in homology searches. In this thesis, a general framework is sketched that allows one to compute a tight upper bound for the p-value of a local pairwise alignment score. Unlike the previous methods, the presented framework is not affeced by so-called edge-effects and can handle gaps (deletions and insertions) without troublesome sampling and curve fitting.

Efficient search for statistically significant dependency rules in binary data

Analyzing statistical dependencies is a fundamental problem in all empirical science. Dependencies help us understand causes and effects, create new scientific theories, and invent cures to problems. Nowadays, large amounts of data is available, but efficient computational tools for analyzing the data are missing. In this research, we develop efficient algorithms for a commonly occurring search problem - searching for the statistically most significant dependency rules in binary data. We consider dependency rules of the form X->A or X->not A, where X is a set of positive-valued attributes and A is a single attribute. Such rules describe which factors either increase or decrease the probability of the consequent A. A classical example are genetic and environmental factors, which can either cause or prevent a disease. The emphasis in this research is that the discovered dependencies should be genuine - i.e. they should also hold in future data. This is an important distinction from the traditional association rules, which - in spite of their name and a similar appearance to dependency rules - do not necessarily represent statistical dependencies at all or represent only spurious connections, which occur by chance. Therefore, the principal objective is to search for the rules with statistical significance measures. Another important objective is to search for only non-redundant rules, which express the real causes of dependence, without any occasional extra factors. The extra factors do not add any new information on the dependence, but can only blur it and make it less accurate in future data. The problem is computationally very demanding, because the number of all possible rules increases exponentially with the number of attributes. In addition, neither the statistical dependency nor the statistical significance are monotonic properties, which means that the traditional pruning techniques do not work. As a solution, we first derive the mathematical basis for pruning the search space with any well-behaving statistical significance measures. The mathematical theory is complemented by a new algorithmic invention, which enables an efficient search without any heuristic restrictions. The resulting algorithm can be used to search for both positive and negative dependencies with any commonly used statistical measures, like Fisher's exact test, the chi-squared measure, mutual information, and z scores. According to our experiments, the algorithm is well-scalable, especially with Fisher's exact test. It can easily handle even the densest data sets with 10000-20000 attributes. Still, the results are globally optimal, which is a remarkable improvement over the existing solutions. In practice, this means that the user does not have to worry whether the dependencies hold in future data or if the data still contains better, but undiscovered dependencies.

Cost-effectiveness of a national initiative to improve hand hygiene compliance using the outcome of healthcare associated staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia

Background The objective is to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of the Australian National Hand Hygiene Inititiave implemented between 2009 and 2012 using healthcare associated Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia as the outcome. Baseline comparators are the eight existing state and territory hand hygiene programmes. The setting is the Australian public healthcare system and 1,294,656 admissions from the 50 largest Australian hospitals are included. Methods The design is a cost-effectiveness modelling study using a before and after quasi-experimental design. The primary outcome is cost per life year saved from reduced cases of healthcare associated Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia, with cost estimated by the annual on-going maintenance costs less the costs saved from fewer infections. Data were harvested from existing sources or were collected prospectively and the time horizon for the model was 12 months, 2011–2012. Findings No useable pre-implementation Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia data were made available from the 11 study hospitals in Victoria or the single hospital in Northern Territory leaving 38 hospitals among six states and territories available for cost-effectiveness analyses. Total annual costs increased by $2,851,475 for a return of 96 years of life giving an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $29,700 per life year gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed a 100% chance the initiative was cost effective in the Australian Capital Territory and Queensland, with ICERs of $1,030 and $8,988 respectively. There was an 81% chance it was cost effective in New South Wales with an ICER of $33,353, a 26% chance for South Australia with an ICER of $64,729 and a 1% chance for Tasmania and Western Australia. The 12 hospitals in Victoria and the Northern Territory incur annual on-going maintenance costs of $1.51M; no information was available to describe cost savings or health benefits. Conclusions The Australian National Hand Hygiene Initiative was cost-effective against an Australian threshold of $42,000 per life year gained. The return on investment varied among the states and territories of Australia.