Examining Moderators of the Hindsight Bias in the Context of Civil Legal Decision-Making: Counterfactuals, Causal Proximity, and Self-Referencing

The current research sought to clarify the diverging relationships between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias observed in the literature thus far. In a non-legal context, Roese and Olson (1996) found a positive relationship between counterfactuals and hindsight bias, such that counterfactual mutations that undid the outcome also increased participants’ ratings of the outcome’s a priori likelihood. Further, they determined that this relationship is mediated by causal attributions about the counterfactually mutated antecedent event. Conversely, in the context of a civil lawsuit, Robbennolt and Sobus (1997) found that the relationship between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias is negative. The current research sought to resolve the conflicting findings in the literature within a legal context. In Experiment One, the manipulation of the normality of the defendant’s target behavior, designed to manipulate participants’ counterfactual thoughts about said behavior, did moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge on mock jurors’ judgments of the foreseeability of that outcome as well as their negligence verdicts. Although I predicted that counterfactual thinking would increase, or exacerbate, the hindsight bias, as found by Roese and Olson (1996), my results provided some support for Robbenolt and Sobus’s (1997) finding that counterfactual thinking decreases the hindsight bias. Behavior normality did not moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge in Experiment Two, nor did causal proximity in Experiment Three. Additionally, my hypothesis that self-referencing may be an effective hindsight debiasing technique received little support across the three experiments. Although both the self-referencing instructions and self-report measure consistently decreased mock jurors’ likelihood of finding the defendant negligent, and self-referencing instructions decreased their foreseeability ratings in studies two and three, the self-referencing manipulation did not interact with outcome knowledge to moderate a hindsight bias effect on either foreseeability or negligence judgments. The consistent pattern of results across the three experiments, however, suggests that self-referencing may be an effective technique in reducing the likelihood of negligence verdicts.

The attribution of motives to organizational citizenship behaviors : the influence of personality, gender and ethnicity

A major area of research in the realm of Industrial/Organizational Psychology is the exploration of specific job performance behaviors such as organizational citizenship behaviors (OCBs). However, there is a dearth of research examining how peers react to OCBs and the performers of such behaviors. Bolino noted that determining how people attribute motives to these OCBs is an important yet unanswered question in industrial/organizational psychology. The present study attempted to provide insight on what observer (or rater) traits affect the motives attributed to organizational citizenship behaviors. In particular, the effects of personality traits such as the Big Five personality factors, self-monitoring, individualism-collectivism, negative affectivity and identity factors such as cultural mistrust, ethnic orientation, and perceived similarity were examined. A within-subjects survey design was used to collect data on six hypothetical organizational citizenship behaviors from a sample of 369 participants. The gender and ethnicity of the individuals performing the hypothetical organizational citizenship behaviors were manipulated (i.e., male or female; African-American, Hispanic, or White). Results indicated that both similarity (t(368)=5.13; p .01) and personality factors (R2 =.06 for genuine motives and R2 = .05 for self-serving motives) had an effect on which motive (genuine or self-serving) was attributed to organizational citizenship behaviors. Support was found for an interaction between similarity and the observer's personality trait of conscientiousness when attributing genuine motives to organizational citizenship behaviors. Finally, specific organizational citizenship behaviors such as altruism were linked to genuine motives while OCBs like conscientiousness, sportsmanship, and civic virtue were associated with self-serving motives.

Climate variability in the Aegean Sea (marine record M2, Athos basin) during the past 1500 years

We provide new evidence on sea surface temperature (SST) variations and paleoceanographic/paleoenvironmental changes over the past 1500 years for the north Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean). The reconstructions are based on multiproxy analyses, obtained from the high resolution (decadal to multi-decadal) marine record M2 retrieved from the Athos basin. Reconstructed SSTs show an increase from ca. 850 to 950 AD and from ca. 1100 to 1300 AD. A cooling phase of almost 1.5 °C is observed from ca. 1600 AD to 1700 AD. This seems to have been the starting point of a continuous SST warming trend until the end of the reconstructed period, interrupted by two prominent cooling events at 1832 ± 15 AD and 1995 ± 1 AD. Application of an adaptive Kernel smoothing suggests that the current warming in the reconstructed SSTs of the north Aegean might be unprecedented in the context of the past 1500 years. Internal variability in atmospheric/oceanic circulations systems as well as external forcing as solar radiation and volcanic activity could have affected temperature variations in the north Aegean Sea over the past 1500 years. The marked temperature drop of approximately ~2 °C at 1832 ± 15 yr AD could be related to the 1809 ?D 'unknown' and the 1815 AD Tambora volcanic eruptions. Paleoenvironmental proxy-indices of the M2 record show enhanced riverine/continental inputs in the northern Aegean after ca. 1450 AD. The paleoclimatic evidence derived from the M2 record is combined with a socio-environmental study of the history of the north Aegean region. We show that the cultivation of temperature-sensitive crops, i.e. walnut, vine and olive, co-occurred with stable and warmer temperatures, while its end coincided with a significant episode of cooler temperatures. Periods of agricultural growth in Macedonia coincide with periods of warmer and more stable SSTs, but further exploration is required in order to identify the causal links behind the observed phenomena. The Black Death likely caused major changes in agricultural activity in the north Aegean region, as reflected in the pollen data from land sites of Macedonia and the M2 proxy-reconstructions. Finally, we conclude that the early modern peaks in mountain vegetation in the Rhodope and Macedonia highlands, visible also in the M2 record, were very likely climate-driven.

Corpus annotation of causal relations and their signals in English and Spanish

El estudio de las relaciones causales y su expresión lingüística ha sido comúnmente estudiado desde diferentes perspectivas en los años recientes. Sin embargo, pocos estudios han intentado combinar diferentes enfoques para establecer el significado de estas relaciones, y han investigado de manera contrastiva las señales usadas para expresarlas. Este trabajo de fin de master es un proyecto para avanzar el conocimiento en este área mediante la investigación de: a) la posibilidad de caracterizar las relaciones causales en diferentes tipos, usando características que combinan un enfoque funcional y cognitivo; b) los tipos de relaciones causales preferidas en los textos expositivos en inglés y sus traducciones al español; c) las expresiones lingüísticas preferidas para expresar dichas relaciones causales en los textos originales en inglés y sus traducciones al español. La metodología usada en esta investigación se basa en la anotación manual de un corpus bilingüe compuesto de un total de 37 textos expositivos (incluyendo los textos originales en inglés y sus traducciones al español) extraídos del corpus MULTINOT, un corpus de alta calidad, con registros diversificados y multifuncional bilingüe inglésespañol, actualmente compilado y anotado multidimensionalmente por los miembros del grupo de investigación FUNCAP con el proyecto MULTINOT (véase Lavid et al.2015) El estudio se llevó a cabo en cuatro pasos principales: primero, un esquema de anotación para las relaciones causales en inglés y español fue diseñado constando de tres sistemas interrelacionados y sus correspondientes características; tras ello, se compiló un inventario de señales para las relaciones causales en inglés y español, y una categorización en diferentes tipos; seguidamente, el esquema de anotación fue implementado en la herramienta UAM Corpus Tool y el conjunto de textos bilingües fue anotado por el autor de este estudio; finalmente, los datos extraídos de la anotación fueron analizados estadísticamente para comprobar las posibles diferencias entre los textos originales en inglés y sus traducciones al español respecto a la selección del tipo de relación de causa y sus señales. El análisis estadístico de los datos anotados sugiere que los tipos de relaciones de causa preferidos en los textos originales en inglés y son los tipos de contenido y no volitivos, que el orden de aparición de estos tipos de señales preferido es la segunda posición, y las señales más recurrentes usadas para expresar dichas relaciones son las conjunciones, seguidas de los sintagmas verbales. El análisis de las traducciones al español revela un alto grado de similitud con los datos de los textos originales en inglés, lo que sugiere que en las traducciones al español se conservan las preferencias de los textos originales en la mayoría de los casos y que estas elecciones pueden considerarse un indicativo de los textos expositivos en inglés. Proyectos futuros se centraran en el análisis de los textos originales en español para comprobar si las tendencias observadas en los textos originales en inglés y sus traducciones al español son también validas en textos originales en español, y en la especificación de patrones que puede ayudar al análisis automático de estas relaciones

An analysis of authorship attribution: Identifying linguistic variables in oral and written discourse

This dissertation goes into the new field from applied linguistics called forensic linguistics, which studies the language as an evidence for criminal cases. There are many subfields within forensic linguistics, however, this study belongs to authorship attribution analysis, where the authorship of a text is attributed to an author through an exhaustive linguistic analysis. Within this field, this study analyzes the morphosyntactic and discursive-pragmatic variables that remain constant in the intra-variation or personal style of a speaker in the oral and written discourse, and at the same time have a high difference rate in the interspeaker variation, or from one speaker to another. The theoretical base of this study is the term used by professor Maria Teresa Turell called “idiolectal style”. This term establishes that the idiosyncratic choices that the speaker makes from the language build a style for each speaker that is constant in the intravariation of the speaker’s discourse. This study comes as a consequence of the problem appeared in authorship attribution analysis, where the absence of some known texts impedes the analysis for the attribution of the authorship of an uknown text. Thus, through a methodology based on qualitative analysis, where the variables are studied exhaustively, and on quantitative analysis, where the findings from qualitative analysis are statistically studied, some conclusions on the evidence of such variables in both oral and written discourses will be drawn. The results of this analysis will lead to further implications on deeper analyses where larger amount of data can be used.

Intentionality and concept attribution : the Search for mental states in the animal kingdom

Thèse numérisée par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

The Anxious Heart of Injustice: Negative Affective Responses to Disabilities

Essai / Essay

Functional Evaluation of Causal Mutations Identified in Human Genetic Studies

Human genetics has been experiencing a wave of genetic discoveries thanks to the development of several technologies, such as genome-wide association studies (GWAS), whole-exome sequencing, and whole genome sequencing. Despite the massive genetic discoveries of new variants associated with human diseases, several key challenges emerge following the genetic discovery. GWAS is known to be good at identifying the locus associated with the patient phenotype. However, the actually causal variants responsible for the phenotype are often elusive. Another challenge in human genetics is that even the causal mutations are already known, the underlying biological effect might remain largely ambiguous. Functional evaluation plays a key role to solve these key challenges in human genetics both to identify causal variants responsible for the phenotype, and to further develop the biological insights from the disease-causing mutations.

We adopted various methods to characterize the effects of variants identified in human genetic studies, including patient genetic and phenotypic data, RNA chemistry, molecular biology, virology, and multi-electrode array and primary neuronal culture systems. Chapter 1 is a broader introduction for the motivation and challenges for functional evaluation in human genetic studies, and the background of several genetics discoveries, such as hepatitis C treatment response, in which we performed functional characterization.

Chapter 2 focuses on the characterization of causal variants following the GWAS study for hepatitis C treatment response. We characterized a non-coding SNP (rs4803217) of IL28B (IFNL3) in high linkage disequilibrium (LD) with the discovery SNP identified in the GWAS. In this chapter, we used inter-disciplinary approaches to characterize rs4803217 on RNA structure, disease association, and protein translation.

Chapter 3 describes another avenue of functional characterization following GWAS focusing on the novel transcripts and proteins identified near the IL28B (IFNL3) locus. It has been recently speculated that this novel protein, which was named IFNL4, may affect the HCV treatment response and clearance. In this chapter, we used molecular biology, virology, and patient genetic and phenotypic data to further characterize and understand the biology of IFNL4. The efforts in chapter 2 and 3 provided new insights to the candidate causal variant(s) responsible for the GWAS for HCV treatment response, however, more evidence is still required to make claims for the exact causal roles of these variants for the GWAS association.

Chapter 4 aims to characterize a mutation already known to cause a disease (seizure) in a mouse model. We demonstrate the potential use of multi-electrode array (MEA) system for the functional characterization and drug testing on mutations found in neurological diseases, such as seizure. Functional characterization in neurological diseases is relatively challenging and available systematic tools are relatively limited. This chapter shows an exploratory research and example to establish a system for the broader use for functional characterization and translational opportunities for mutations found in neurological diseases.

Overall, this dissertation spans a range of challenges of functional evaluations in human genetics. It is expected that the functional characterization to understand human mutations will become more central in human genetics, because there are still many biological questions remaining to be answered after the explosion of human genetic discoveries. The recent advance in several technologies, including genome editing and pluripotent stem cells, is also expected to make new tools available for functional studies in human diseases.

Cervical cancer precursors and hormonal contraceptive use in HIV-positive women: application of a causal model and semi-parametric estimation methods.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the application of causal inference methods to observational data in the obstetrics and gynecology field, particularly causal modeling and semi-parametric estimation. BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive women are at increased risk for cervical cancer and its treatable precursors. Determining whether potential risk factors such as hormonal contraception are true causes is critical for informing public health strategies as longevity increases among HIV-positive women in developing countries. METHODS: We developed a causal model of the factors related to combined oral contraceptive (COC) use and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater (CIN2+) and modified the model to fit the observed data, drawn from women in a cervical cancer screening program at HIV clinics in Kenya. Assumptions required for substantiation of a causal relationship were assessed. We estimated the population-level association using semi-parametric methods: g-computation, inverse probability of treatment weighting, and targeted maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS: We identified 2 plausible causal paths from COC use to CIN2+: via HPV infection and via increased disease progression. Study data enabled estimation of the latter only with strong assumptions of no unmeasured confounding. Of 2,519 women under 50 screened per protocol, 219 (8.7%) were diagnosed with CIN2+. Marginal modeling suggested a 2.9% (95% confidence interval 0.1%, 6.9%) increase in prevalence of CIN2+ if all women under 50 were exposed to COC; the significance of this association was sensitive to method of estimation and exposure misclassification. CONCLUSION: Use of causal modeling enabled clear representation of the causal relationship of interest and the assumptions required to estimate that relationship from the observed data. Semi-parametric estimation methods provided flexibility and reduced reliance on correct model form. Although selected results suggest an increased prevalence of CIN2+ associated with COC, evidence is insufficient to conclude causality. Priority areas for future studies to better satisfy causal criteria are identified.

Intentionality and concept attribution : the Search for mental states in the animal kingdom

Thèse numérisée par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

The Anxious Heart of Injustice: Negative Affective Responses to Disabilities

Essai / Essay

Documentation of sediment core PS1392-1

The Late Quaternary sediment sequence of the continental margin in the eastern Weddell Sea is well suited for palaeoenvironmental reconstructions. Two cores from the upper slope, which contain the sedimentary record of the last 300 ky, have been sedimentologically investigated. Age models are based on lithostratigraphy and are correlated with the stable isotope record. As a result of a detailed analysis of the clay mineral composition, grain size distributions and structures, this sedimentary record provides the first marine evidence that the Antarctic ice sheet extended to the shelf edge during the last glacial. The variations in volume and size of the ice sheet were also simulated in numerical models. Changes in accumulation rate and ice temperature are of some importance, but the model revealed that fluctuations are primarily driven by changes in eustatic sea-level and that the ice edge extended to the shelf edge during the last glacial maximum. This causal relationship implies that the maximum ice extension strongly depends on the magnitude and duration of the sea-level depression during a glacial period. The results of the sedimentological investigations and of the numerical models show that the Antarctic ice sheet follows glacial events in the northern hemisphere by teleconnections of sea level.

Geochemical investigations of sediment profiles in the Norwegian-Greenland Sea

High-, i.e. 15-140-yr-resolution climate records from sediment cores 23071, 23074, and PS2644 from the Nordic Seas were used to recon:;truct changes in the surface and deep water circulation during marine isotope stages 1-5.1, i.e. the last 82 000 yr. From this the causal links between the paleoceanographic signals and the Dansgaard-Oeschger events 1-21 revealed in 0180-ice-core records from Greenland were determined. The stratigraphy of the cores is based on the planktic 0180 curves, the minima of which were directly correlated with the GISP2-0180 record, numerous AMS 14C ages, and some ash layers. The planktic d18O and dl3C curves of all three cores reveal numerous meltwater events, the most pronounced of which were assigned to the Heinrich events 1-6. The meltwater events, among other things also accompanied by cold sea surface temperatures and high IRD concentration, correlate with the stadial phases of the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles and in the western Iceland Sea also to colder periods or abrupt drops in 0180 within a few longer interstadials. Besides being more numerous, the meltwater events also show isotope values lighter in the Iceland Sea than in the central Norwegian Sea, especially if compared to core 23071. This implies a continuous inflow of relative warm Atlantic water into the Norwegian Sea and a cyclonic circulation regime.