A Spatial Analysis to Permanent Income as Deterrent of Homicides: the case of Medellin City

This paper studies the relationship between permanent income and homicides, estimating an income-crime elasticity. We assume that this elasticity varies across geographical areas. We estimate different specifications of Spatial Panel Models using information of urban areas in Medellin (Colombia), areas known as communes. Spatial Models consider the importance of location and the type of neighbors of each commune. We simulate an intervention over permanent income in order to estimate the income elasticity for each commune and the average elasticity of income-crime on the city. We provide evidence about spatial dependence between the homicides per commune and their neighbors, and about a relationship between homicides and neighbor’s income. In our case of study, the average estimated impact of 1% increase in permanent income in a specific commune produces a decrease in the homicide rate on average in 0.39%. Finally, permanent income plays a crime deterrent role, but also this effect of income on crime varies across the city, showing that some areas are strategically located to this kind of intervention.

The dangers of theorizing before analysis : four case studies about argumentation and cognition

International audience

Spatial multicriteria decision analysis to potential beekeeping assessment. Case study: Montesinho Natural Park (Portugal)

The Multicriteria decision analysis is a tool to support decision-making in the identification of areas with the utmost beekeeping potential. This paper design a GIS multicriteria approach to assess the beekeeping potential. The development of a conceptual model structure requires the participation of stakeholders and experts in that process. The spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) allowed defining the potential beekeeping map. The resulting maps can be used by the beekeepers associations to easily select the more suitable areas for the apiaries location or relocation and avoid prohibited areas by legal requirements.

Using importance-satisfaction analysis in evaluating student satisfaction: a case study of economics and administration Faculty of Qafqaz University

Education is one of the main industries in the world, which needs to focus more than other types of industries. As Mandela said, “Education is the most powerful weapon, which you can use to change the world” (www.brainyquote.com). Global economic recession era put serious pressure on private Higher Education Institutions (HEI), which resulted as decrease in the university spending`s budget. Therefore, HEI forced to develop more competitive ways to find new financial resources for rapid technological and organizational changes (Savsar, 2012). Students are the motive of being of Higher Education. The aim of this study is to implement İmportance-Satisfaction Analysis (IPA) matrix to evaluate the student`s satisfaction and assess importance of different attributes in terms of student`s perception. The students that participated in this study enrolled in the present academic year, 2015/2016, in the Economics and Administration Faculty-Qafqaz University. In order to perform study, survey method applied to collect the data and number of received valid questionnaire were 266. Questionnaire used to collect demographic information of students, identify importance given to each attribute and satisfaction degree of each attribute. Descriptive analysis used to identify profile of respondents, also find satisfaction and importance degree for each attributes. To evaluate differences between groups, built association between variables, find relation between variables and answering to the research hypothesis inferential analysis applied. Moreover, IPA matrix was been used to explore the attributes that needs improvement that perceived as attributes that are more important for the students. The result showed that generally students are satisfied with service quality offered by HEI-on sample of the Qafqaz University. In addition, research found that there are no differences in overall satisfaction and importance by department, gender, academic year and grade point average. IPA matrix highlighted the main attributes, which performs well, namely Academic Services and Teaching aspects, and in another hand needs to concentrate in Undergraduate program and External Relations. In addition, research found that loyalty of students is very low and there is a negative correlation between loyalty and satisfaction.

Location analysis of city sections: socio-demographic segmentation and restaurant potentiality estimation : a case study of Lisbon

One of the objectives of this study is to perform classification of socio-demographic components for the level of city section in City of Lisbon. In order to accomplish suitable platform for the restaurant potentiality map, the socio-demographic components were selected to produce a map of spatial clusters in accordance to restaurant suitability. Consequently, the second objective is to obtain potentiality map in terms of underestimation and overestimation in number of restaurants. To the best of our knowledge there has not been found identical methodology for the estimation of restaurant potentiality. The results were achieved with combination of SOM (Self-Organized Map) which provides a segmentation map and GAM (Generalized Additive Model) with spatial component for restaurant potentiality. Final results indicate that the highest influence in restaurant potentiality is given to tourist sites, spatial autocorrelation in terms of neighboring restaurants (spatial component), and tax value, where lower importance is given to household with 1 or 2 members and employed population, respectively. In addition, an important conclusion is that the most attractive market sites have shown no change or moderate underestimation in terms of restaurants potentiality.

An analysis of the effects of preferential trade policies through the estimation of quantitative models: the case of Portugal.

Doutoramento em Economia.

Climate Change Adaptation Case Study: Benefit-Cost Analysis of Coastal Flooding Hazard Mitigation

The damage Hurricane Sandy caused had far-reaching repercussions up and down the East Coast of the United States. Vast coastal flooding accompanied the storm, inundating homes, businesses, and utility and emergency facilities. Since the storm, projects to mitigate similar future floods have been scrutinized. Such projects not only need to keep out floodwaters but also be designed to withstand the effect that climate change might have on rising sea levels and increased flood risk. In this study, we develop an economic model to assess the costs and benefits of a berm (sea wall) to mitigate the effects of flooding from a large storm. We account for the lifecycle costs of the project, which include those for the upfront construction of the berm, ongoing maintenance, land acquisition, and wetland and recreation zone construction. Benefits of the project include avoided fatalities, avoided residential and commercial damages, avoided utility and municipal damages, recreational and health benefits, avoided debris removal expenses, and avoided loss of function of key transportation and commercial infrastructure located in the area. Our estimate of the beneficial effects of the berm includes ecosystem services from wetlands and health benefits to the surrounding community from a park and nature system constructed along the berm. To account for the effects of climate change and verify that the project will maintain its effectiveness over the long term, we allow the risk of flooding to increase over time. Over our 50-year time horizon, we double the risk of 100- and 500-year flood events to account for the effects of sea level rise on coastal flooding. Based on the economic analysis, the project is highly cost beneficial over its 50-year timeframe. This analysis demonstrates that climate change adaptation investments can be cost beneficial even though they mitigate the impacts of low-probability, high-consequence events.

Average-case analysis of power consumption in embedded systems

Power efficiency is one of the most important constraints in the design of embedded systems since such systems are generally driven by batteries with limited energy budget or restricted power supply. In every embedded system, there are one or more processor cores to run the software and interact with the other hardware components of the system. The power consumption of the processor core(s) has an important impact on the total power dissipated in the system. Hence, the processor power optimization is crucial in satisfying the power consumption constraints, and developing low-power embedded systems. A key aspect of research in processor power optimization and management is “power estimation”. Having a fast and accurate method for processor power estimation at design time helps the designer to explore a large space of design possibilities, to make the optimal choices for developing a power efficient processor. Likewise, understanding the processor power dissipation behaviour of a specific software/application is the key for choosing appropriate algorithms in order to write power efficient software. Simulation-based methods for measuring the processor power achieve very high accuracy, but are available only late in the design process, and are often quite slow. Therefore, the need has arisen for faster, higher-level power prediction methods that allow the system designer to explore many alternatives for developing powerefficient hardware and software. The aim of this thesis is to present fast and high-level power models for the prediction of processor power consumption. Power predictability in this work is achieved in two ways: first, using a design method to develop power predictable circuits; second, analysing the power of the functions in the code which repeat during execution, then building the power model based on average number of repetitions. In the first case, a design method called Asynchronous Charge Sharing Logic (ACSL) is used to implement the Arithmetic Logic Unit (ALU) for the 8051 microcontroller. The ACSL circuits are power predictable due to the independency of their power consumption to the input data. Based on this property, a fast prediction method is presented to estimate the power of ALU by analysing the software program, and extracting the number of ALU-related instructions. This method achieves less than 1% error in power estimation and more than 100 times speedup in comparison to conventional simulation-based methods. In the second case, an average-case processor energy model is developed for the Insertion sort algorithm based on the number of comparisons that take place in the execution of the algorithm. The average number of comparisons is calculated using a high level methodology called MOdular Quantitative Analysis (MOQA). The parameters of the energy model are measured for the LEON3 processor core, but the model is general and can be used for any processor. The model has been validated through the power measurement experiments, and offers high accuracy and orders of magnitude speedup over the simulation-based method.

Emergy analysis of a silvo-pastoral system, a case study in southern Portugal

The Mediterranean silvo-pastoral system known as Montado, in Portugal, is a complex land use system composed of an open tree stratum in various densities and an herbaceous layer, used for livestock grazing. Livestock also profit from the acorns, and the grazing contributes to avoid shrub encroachment. In the last 20 years, subsidies from the European Union have greatly promoted cattle rearing in this system and the introduction of heavy breeds, at the expense of sheep, goats or the native cattle breeds. The balance of the traditional system is thus threatened, and a precise assessment of the balance between the different components of the system, therefore is highly needed. The goal of this study was to gain a better under- standing of a Montado farm system with cattle rearing as the major economic activity by applying the emergy evaluation method to calculate indices of yield, investment, environmental loading and sustainability. By integrating different ecosystem components, the emergy evaluation method allows a comprehensive evaluation of this complex and multifunctional system at the scale of an individual farm. This method provides a set of indices that can help us understand the system and design management strategies that maximize emergy flow in the farm. In this paper, we apply the emergy evaluation method to a Montado farm with cattle rearing, as a way to gain a better understanding of this system at the farm scale. The value for the transformity of veal (2.66E?06 sej J-1) is slightly higher, when compared to other systems producing protein. That means that the investment of nature and man in this product was higher and it requires a premium price on the market. The renewa- bility for Holm Oaks Farm (49 %), lower than for other similar systems, supports the assumption that this is a farm in which, comparing with others, the number of purchased inputs in relation to renewable inputs provided by nature, is higher. The Emergy Investment Ratio is 0.91 for cattle rearing compared to a value of 0.49 for cork and 0.43 for firewood harvesting, making it clear that cattle rearing is a more labor demanding activity comparing with extractive activities as cork and firewood harvesting.

Sustainability analysis in the mining sector: a case study on new recycling technologies for sulphidic mine residues valorisation

Research has demonstrated that mining activities can cause serious impacts on the environment, as well as the surrounding communities, mainly due to the unsafe storage of mine tailings. This research focuses on the sustainability assessment of new technologies for the recovery of metals from mine residues. The assessment consists in the evaluation of the environmental, economic, and social impacts through the Life Cycle based methods: Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Life Cycle Costing (LCC), and Social Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA). The analyses are performed on the Mondo Minerals bioleaching project, which aim is to recover nickel and cobalt from the Sotkamo and Vuonos mine tailings. The LCA demonstrates that the project contributes to the avoided production of nickel and cobalt concentrates from new resources, hence reducing several environmental impacts. The LCC analysis shows that the company’s main costs are linked to the bioleaching process, caused by electricity consumption and the chemicals used. The SLCA analyses the impacts on three main stakeholder categories: workers, local community, and society. The results demonstrated that a fair salary (or the absence of it) impacts the workers the most, while the local community stakeholder category impacts are related to the access to material resources. The health and safety category is the most impacted category for the society stakeholder. The environmental and economic analyses demonstrate that the recovery of mine tailings may represents a good opportunity for mine companies both to reduce the environmental impacts linked to mine tailings and to increase the profitability. In particular, the project helps reduce the amounts of metals extracted from new resources and demonstrates that the use of the bioleaching technology for the extraction of metals can be economically profitable.

Analysis and optimisation of books flow among branches through simulation: the case of Trondheim’s Public Library

Il presente lavoro di tesi verte sull’analisi e l’ottimizzazione dei flussi di libri generati tra le diverse sedi della biblioteca pubblica, Trondheim folkebibliotek, situata a Trondheim, città del nord norvegese. La ricerca si inserisce nell’ambito di un progetto pluriennale, SmartLIB, che questa sta intraprendendo con l’università NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology. L’obiettivo di questa tesi è quello di analizzare possibili soluzioni per ottimizzare il flusso di libri generato dagli ordini dei cittadini. Una prima fase di raccolta ed analisi dei dati è servita per avere le informazioni necessarie per procedere nella ricerca. Successivamente è stata analizzata la possibilità di ridurre i flussi andando ad associare ad ogni dipartimento la quantità di copie necessarie per coprire il 90% della domanda, seguendo la distribuzione di Poisson. In seguito, sono state analizzate tre soluzioni per ottimizzare i flussi generati dai libri, il livello di riempimento dei box ed il percorso del camion che giornalmente visita tutte le sedi della libreria. Di supporto per questo secondo studio è stato il Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP). Un modello simulativo è stato creato su Anylogic ed utilizzato per validare le soluzioni proposte. I risultati hanno portato a proporre delle soluzioni per ottimizzare i flussi complessivi, riducendo il delay time di consegna dei libri del 50%, ad una riduzione del 53% del flusso di box e ad una conseguente aumento del 44% del tasso di riempimento di ogni box. Possibili future implementazioni delle soluzioni trovate corrispondono all’installazione di una nuova Sorting Machine nella sede centrale della libreria ed all’implementazione sempre in quest’ultima di un nuovo schedule giornaliero.

Many-body approach to the BCS-BEC crossover for an imbalanced ultra-cold Fermi gas

The aim of this thesis is the study of the normal phase of a mass imbalanced and polarized ultra-cold Fermi gas in the context of the BCS-BEC crossover, using a diagrammatic approach known as t-matrix approximation. More specifically, the calculations are implemented using the fully self-consistent t-matrix (or Luttinger- Ward) approach, which is already experimentally and numerically validated for the balanced case. An imbalance (polarization) between the two spin populations works against pairing and superfluidity. For sufficiently large polarization (and not too strong attraction) the system remains in the normal phase even at zero temperature. This phase is expected to be well described by the Landau’s Fermi liquid theory. By reducing the spin polarization, a critical imbalance is reached where a quantum phase transition towards a superfluid phase occurs and the Fermi liquid description breaks down. Depending on the strength of the interaction, the exotic superfluid phase at the quantum critical point (QCP) can be either a FFLO phase (Fulde-Ferrell-Larkin-Ovchinnikov) or a Sarma phase. In this regard, the presence of mass imbalance can strongly influence the nature of the QCP, by favouring one of these two exotic types of pairing over the other, depending on whether the majority of the two species is heavier or lighter than the minority. The analysis of the system is made by focusing on the temperature-coupling-polarization phase diagram for different mass ratios of the two components and on the study of different thermodynamic quantities at finite temperature. The evolution towards a non-Fermi liquid behavior at the QCP is investigated by calculating the fermionic quasi-particle residues, the effective masses and the self-energies at zero temperature.

Analysis ot the road barriers maintenance: the Bologna Case Study

This thesis deals with the topic of Road Safety when maintaining its road elements. The aim of the work is the prioritization of maintenance for each barrier that depends on some factors that are related to the topography of the site, deformations, degradation of the composing elements, and the compliance of the barrier installation with the original situation. Based on these components a final coefficient by which the maintenance priority was highlighted, calculated, and associated to each barrier. For easy study and visualization, information was uploaded and processed in a GIS environment, in order to create analyses and choropleth maps. Analyses were exploited by using free and open-source GIS software, namely QGIS. Information on the barriers' features was registered with both on-site and online (i.e., web mapping providers) inspections. With regards to the on-site inspections, a complete geotagged photos database was created, in order to improve the survey. GIS potentialities were fully exploited by applying some geoprocessing tools which allowed deep analyses.

Sensitivity analysis of QRA to the occurrence frequencies of top-events: a case study

L’obiettivo del lavoro di tesi è stato quello di valutare la sensitività dell’analisi quantitativa del rischio (QRA, Quantitative Risk Analysis) alla frequenza di accadimento degli scenari di rilascio delle sostanze pericolose ovvero dei top-events. L’analisi di rischio è stata condotta applicando, ad uno stabilimento a rischio di incidente rilevante della Catalogna, i passaggi procedurali previsti dall’istruzione 14/2008 SIE vigente in quella regione. L’applicazione di questa procedura ha permesso di ottenere le curve isorischio, che collegano i punti attorno allo stabilimento aventi lo stesso valore del rischio locale. Le frequenze base dei top-events sono state prese innanzitutto dalla linea guida BEVI, e successivamente ai fini dell’analisi di sensitività, sono stati considerati sia i valori forniti da altre 3 autorevoli linee guida sia i valori ottenuti considerando incrementi delle frequenze base del 20%, 30%, 50%, 70%, 200%, 300%, 500%, 700%, 1000%, 2000%, 3000%, 4000%, 5000%. L’analisi delle conseguenze è stata condotta tramite i software EFFECTS ed ALOHA, mentre ai fini della ricomposizione del rischio è stato utilizzato il codice RISKCURVES. La sensitività alle frequenze dei top-events è stata valutata in termini di variazione del diametro massimo delle curve isorischio, con particolare attenzione a quella corrispondente a 10-6 ev/anno, che rappresenta il limite di accettabilità del rischio per la pianificazione territoriale nell’intorno dello stabilimento. E’ stato così dimostrato che l’estensione delle curve isorischio dipende in maniera molto forte dalla frequenza dei top-events e che l’utilizzo di dati di frequenza provenienti da linee guida diverse porta a curve isorischio di dimensioni molto differenti. E’ dunque confermato che la scelta delle frequenze degli scenari incidentali rappresenta, nella conduzione dell’analisi di rischio, un passaggio delicato e cruciale.