内蒙古岱海DH99a岩芯沉积物碳含量变化与湖区全新世气候变迁

Daihai Lake, a graben-type closed lake, lies ca. 10 km east of Liangcheng County, Inner Mongolia, north-central China. For its location at the transition of semi-humid and semi-arid areas, and in the north edge of the East Asian monsoon, the lake is sensitive to changes in climate and environment. Based on analyses of total inorganic carbon (TIC), total organic carbon (TOC) and the ratio of total organic carbon to total nitrogen (C/N ratio) of DH99a core sediments recovered in the central part of Daihai Lake, the data suggest Holocene climatic history of the lake region is reconstructed. In this paper, the TIC and TOC contents of the lake sediments are closely related to climate changes. 1) Changes in TIC content of the lake sediments is closely related to climate, which directly reflect changes of temperature in the lake region, i.e., higher TIC content is linked with warmer temperature and stronger evaporation; 2) Changes in TOC and C/N ratio reflect the regional precipitation, i.e., relatively higher TOC content and C/N ratio indicate higher rainfall which results in stronger river flow and more organic matter entering into the lake. Data of the TIC content, TOC content and C/N ratio of DH99a core sediments suggest that climatic history of the Daihai Lake region is characterized by 4 stages. During the interval of ca. 11200-7500 a BP, higher TIC content, relatively lower TOC content and C/N ratio value indicate a warmer and slight dry condition over the lake area. From ca. 7500 to 4500 a BP, high values of TIC content, with an increase in TOC content and C/N ratio suggest the climate was warm and humid. Changes of TIC content, TOC content show that both temperature and precipitation displayed obvious fluctuations during the period, i.e., slightly cool and humid ca. 7500-6700 a BP, warm and moist ca. 6700-5300a BP, mild and comparatively humid ca. 5300-4500a BP. Between ca. 4500 and 2900 a BP, TIC content and TOC content decreased gradually while fluctuating, C/N ratio displayed a decreasing trend. These data imply that the climate generally became cooler and drier than the preceding period. The lowest values of TIC content, TOC content and C/N ratio during the interval of ca. 2900-0 a BP, demonstrate that the climate was severe, and became cool and dry. However the relative higher values of TIC content, TOC content and C/N ratio between ca. 1700 and 1300 a BP may denote an increase both in temperature and in precipitation. Data of TIC content, TOC content and C/N ratio in Daihai DH99a core sediments indicate that the warm period was asynchronous with the humid time, the warm interval began in ca. 11200 a BP, and ended in ca. 2900 a BP. The humid period was ca. 7500-2900 a BP. During ca. 7500^500 a BP, the climate was warm and humid, which was the climatic optimum of the Holocene Epoch in the Daihai Lake region. Data of TIC content, TOC content and C/N ratio in Daihai DH99a core sediments imply that the Holocene climate was unstable, the fluctuating events happened occasionally. Such as the cold and dry climate in ca. 4400-4200a BP, the warm and humid climatic condition in the period between ca.1700 and 1300a BP.

Pollution and paradigms: lessons from Icelandic volcanism for continental flood basalt studies

Grattan, J. Pollution and paradigms: Lessons from Icelandic volcanism for continental flood basalt studies. Lithos. 2005. 79 pp 343-353

Rorty's Elective Affinities. The New Pragmatism and Postmodern Thought

The present book is devoted to "European connections of Richard Rorty's neopragmatism". The theme, chosen carefully and intentionally, is supposed to show the motivation behind the writing of the present work, as well as to show its intended extent. Let us consider briefly the first three parts of the theme, to enlighten a little our intentions. "European" is perhaps the most important description for it was precisely that thread that was most important to me, being the only context seriously taken into account, as I assumed right from the start that I would not be writing about rather more widely unknown to me - and much less fascinating (even to Rorty, the hero of the story) from my own, traditional, Continental philosophical perspective - American analytic philosophy. So accordingly I have almost totally skipped "American" connections (to use the distinction I need here) of Rorty's philosophy, that is to say, firstly, a years-long work within analytic philosophy, secondly struggles with it on its own grounds, and finally attempts to use classical American, mainly Deweyan, pragmatism for his own needs and numerous polemics associated with it - the questions that are far away from my interests and that arise limited interest among reading and writing philosophical audience in Poland, and perhaps also among Continental philosophers. It did not seem possible to me to write a book on Rorty in his American connections for they are insufficiently known to me, demanding knowledge of both post-war American analytic philosophy as well as pragmatism of its father-founders. I could see, setting to work on Richard Rorty, that a book on his American connections (leaving aside the issue that it would not be a philosophical problem but rather, let us say, the one of writing a monograph) written by a Polish philosopher in Poland and then in the USA was not a stimulating intellectual challenge but rather a thankless working task. Besides, having spent much time on Rorty's philosophy, writing extensively about him and translating his works, I already knew that the "Continental" context was extremely important to his neopragmatism, and that thinking about it could be relatively prolific (as opposed to the context potentially given by American philosophy).

Recent Arctic Climate Change and Its Remote Forcing of Northwest Atlantic Shelf Ecosystems

During recent decades, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. Additionally, shifts in the Arctic's atmospheric pressure field have altered surface winds, ocean circulation, and freshwater storage in the Beaufort Gyre. These processes have resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean, including the emergence of great salinity anomalies propagating throughout the North Atlantic. Here, we link these variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean to the regime shifts observed in Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems. Specifically, we hypothesize that the corresponding salinity anomalies, both negative and positive, alter the timing and extent of water-column stratification, thereby impacting the production and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher-trophic-level consumers. Should this hypothesis hold up to critical evaluation, it has the potential to fundamentally alter our current understanding of the processes forcing the dynamics of Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems.

Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios

The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca.60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here we develop and apply tools to project the long term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca.11% of total catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by less than 10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared to the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of less than 20% compared to current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf

The potential response of the marine ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf to climate change under a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) is investigated using the coupled hydrodynamics-ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM. Changes in the near future (2030–2040) and the far future (2082–2099) are compared to the recent past (1983–2000). The sensitivity of the ecosystem to potential changes in multiple anthropogenic drivers (river nutrient loads and benthic trawling) in the near future is compared to the impact of changes in climate. With the exception of the biomass of benthic organisms, the influence of the anthropogenic drivers only exceeds the impact of climate change in coastal regions. Increasing river nitrogen loads has a limited impact on the ecosystem whilst reducing river nitrogen and phosphate concentrations affects net primary production(netPP) and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Direct anthropogenic forcing is seen to mitigate/amplify the effects of climate change. Increasing river nitrogen has the potential to amplify the effects of climate change at the coast by increasing netPP. Reducing river nitrogen and phosphate mitigates the effects of climate change for netPP and the biomass of small phytoplankton and large zooplankton species but amplifies changes in the biomass of large phytoplankton and small zooplankton.

Isotopic Assessment of Sources of Surface Water Nitrate within the Oldman River Basin, Southern Alberta, Canada

Concentrations and isotopic compositions of NO-3 from the Oldman River (OMR) and some of its tributaries (Alberta, Canada) have been determined on a monthly basis since December 2000 to assess temporal and spatial variations of riverine NO-3 sources within the OMR basin. For the OMR sites, NO-3 -N concentrations reached up to 0.34 mg L-1, d15N-NO-3 values varied between –0.3 and +13.8‰, and d18O-NO-3 values ranged from –10.0 to +5.7‰. For the tributary sites, NO-3 -N concentrations were as high as 8.81 mg L-1, d15N-NO-3 values varied between –2.5 and +23.4‰, and d18O-NO-3 values ranged from –15.2 to +3.4‰. Tributaries in the western, relatively pristine forested part of the watershed add predominantly NO-3 to the OMR with d15N-NO-3 indicative of soil nitrification. In contrast, tributaries in the eastern agriculturally-urban-industrially-used part of the basin contribute NO-3 with d15N-NO-3 values of about +16‰ indicative of manure and/or sewage derived NO-3. This difference in d15N-NO-3 values of tributaries was found to be independent of the season, but rather indicates a spatial change in the NO-3 source, which correlates with land use changes within the OMR basin. As a consequence of tributary influx, d15N-NO-3 values in the Oldman River increased from +6‰ in the downstream direction (W to E), although [NO-3 -N] increased only moderately (generally

The replacement of a native freshwater amphipod by an invader: roles for environmental degradation and intraguild predation

We assessed the extent to which an invader, Gammarus pulex (Crustacea: Amphipoda), has replaced a native, Gammarus duebeni celticus, over a 13-year period in a European river system and some of the abiotic and biotic factors that could account for this. Between 1988 and 2001, 56% of mixed-species sites had become invader-only sites, whereas no mixed sites had become native only again. The native dominated areas of higher dissolved oxygen and water quality, with the reciprocal true for the invader. Field transplant experiments revealed that native survivorship was lower in areas where it had been replaced than in areas where the invader does not yet occur. In invader-only areas, native survivorship was lower than that of the invader when kept separately and lowest when both species were kept together. We also observed predation of the native by the invader. Laboratory oxygen manipulation experiments revealed that at 30% saturation, the native's survivorship was two thirds that of the invader. We conclude that decreasing water quality favours replacement of the native by the invader.

The Governance of Sexual Offending Across Europe: Penal Policies, Political Economies and the Institutionalization of Risk

This article examines why England and Wales have comparatively one of the most stringent systems for the governance of sexual offending within Western Europe. While England and Wales, like the USA, have adopted broadly exclusionary, managerialist penal policies based around incapacitation and targeted surveillance, many other Western European countries have opted for more inclusionary therapeutic interventions. Divergences in state approaches to sex offender risk, particularly in relation to notification and vetting schemes, are initially examined with reference to the respective theoretical frameworks of ‘policy transfer’ and differing political economies. Chiefly, however, differences in penal policies are attributed to the social and political construction of risk and its control. There may be multiple expressions of risk relating to expert, lay, moral or emotive aspects. It is argued, however, that it is the particular convergence and alignment of these dimensions on the part of the various stakeholders in the UK – government, media, public and professional – that leads to risk becoming institutionalized in the form of punitive regulatory policies for managing the dangerous.

Assessment of bioavailable arsenic and copper in soils and sediments from the Antofagasta region of northern Chile

Copper levels of nearly 500 mg l(-1) were measured in aqueous extracts of soil and sediment samples from the lowlands of Antofagasta. Arsenic levels of up to 183 mg l(-1) were found in river sediments, and 27.5 mg l(-1) arsenic was found at the location of a dam where potable water is extracted. This indicates that the arsenic contamination of water supplies reported recently for the pre-Andes may be a widespread problem throughout the region. Copper contamination from smelting activities also provides cause for concern as elevated levels were found in aqueous extracts of soil up to 20 km away from a smelter. This study went beyond traditional chemical analysis by assessing the potential benefits of using microbial biosensors as an alternative to determination of chemical speciation, to provide an environmentally relevant interpretation of soil/sediment residue levels. This approach is simple to use and enables a rapid, low cost assessment of pollutant bioavailability. It may, therefore, be of use for further investigations in the region and beyond.

Downstream changes in the transport and storage of sediment-associated contaminants (P, Cr and PCBs) in agricultural and industrialized drainage basins

Samples of suspended, floodplain and channel bed sediment have been used to examine downstream changes in ediment-associated contaminant transport and storage in contrasting rivers in Yorkshire, UK. The concentrations of hosphorus, chromium and selected PCBs associated with sediment in the River Aire and its main tributary, the River Calder, which drain an urbanized and industrialized catchment, are considerably higher than those in the relatively unpolluted River Swale, which drains an agricultural catchment. Concentrations of sediment-associated contaminants in the Aire/Calder system increase downstream, reflecting the location of urban and industrial areas in the middle and lower reaches, and the location of point source inputs, such as sewage treatment works. The ontaminant concentrations associated with floodplain and channel bed sediment in the Rivers Aire and Calder are high, particularly in the lower reaches. This, combined with measurements of sediment storage on the floodplain and channel bed, indicate that significant storage of sediment-associated contaminants occurs in the Rivers Aire and Calder.

The value of water quality improvements in the region Berlin-Brandenburg as a function of distance and state residency

This study uses a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to elicit willingness to pay estimates for changes in the water quality of three rivers. As many regions the metropolitan region Berlin-Brandenburg struggles to achieve the objectives of the Water Framework Directive until 2015. A major problem is the high load of nutrients. As the region is part of two states (Länder) and the river sections are common throughout the whole region we account for the spatial context twofold. Firstly, we incorporate the distance between each respondent and all river stretches in all MNL and RPL models, and, secondly, we consider whether respondents reside in the state of Berlin or Brandenburg. The compensating variation (CV) calculated for various scenarios shows that overall people would significantly benefit from improved water quality. The CV measures, however, also reveal that not considering the spatial context would result in severely biased welfare measures. While the distance decay effect lowers CV, state residency is connected to the frequency of status quo choices and not accounting for residency would underestimate possible welfare gains in one state. Another finding is that the extent of the market varies with respect to attributes (river stretches) and attribute levels (water quality levels).

Review of Legislation and Policy Guidance relating to Adult Social Care in Northern Ireland

Introduction and Background

This research was undertaken by an international team of academics from Queen’s University, Belfast, Leeds University and Penn State University (USA) who have examined models of adult social care provision across thirteen jurisdictions. The aim of this research is to present the Commissioner for Older People in Northern Ireland (COPNI) with possible options for legal reform to adult social care provision for older people in Northern Ireland.

Project Objectives

The agreed objectives of this research were to provide:
• Identification of gaps and issues surrounding the current legislative framework including policy provision for adult social care in Northern Ireland.
• Comparison of Northern Ireland with best practice in other jurisdictions to include (but not be limited to): England and Wales, Republic of Ireland, Scotland and at least two other international examples; Recommendations, based on the above, as to whether there is a need for legislative reform – provision of suggestions other than legislative change (if applicable).
• Recommendations or options based on the above, on how to best change the current framework in Northern Ireland to provide better support outcomes for older people.
• Stakeholder engagement via roundtable event to discuss outcomes/ recommendations.

Structure of Report

The findings from this research are based on an international review of adult social care in the local, national and international contexts. The report will, therefore, firstly present the key recommendations for Northern Ireland which have emerged from a systematic examination and review of adult social care in diverse jurisdictions. Each jurisdiction is then examined in the context of legislative and policy provision and examples of best practice are provided. The final section of the report then compares Northern Ireland to best practice from each of these aforementioned jurisdictions and the discussion entails the background to the report’s final Recommendations. The recommendations in this report are thus directly linked in with the evidence we have gathered across different countries with contrasting systems of welfare.