Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Year 6 students' idiosyncratic notions of unitising, reunitising and regrouping decimal number places

Having flexible notions of the unit (e.g., 26 ones can be thought of as 2.6 tens, 1 ten 16 ones, 260 tenths, etc.) should be a major focus of elementary mathematics education. However, often these powerful notions are relegated to computations where the major emphasis is on "getting the right answer" thus procedural knowledge rather than conceptual knowledge becomes the primary focus. This paper reports on 22 high-performing students' reunitising processes ascertained from individual interviews on tasks requiring unitising, reunitising and regrouping; errors were categorised to depict particular thinking strategies. The results show that, even for high-performing students, regrouping is a cognitively complex task. This paper analyses this complexity and draws inferences for teaching.

Generation of a 3D proximal femur shape from a single projection 2D radiographic image.

Summary Generalized Procrustes analysis and thin plate splines were employed to create an average 3D shape template of the proximal femur that was warped to the size and shape of a single 2D radiographic image of a subject. Mean absolute depth errors are comparable with previous approaches utilising multiple 2D input projections. Introduction Several approaches have been adopted to derive volumetric density (g cm-3) from a conventional 2D representation of areal bone mineral density (BMD, g cm-2). Such approaches have generally aimed at deriving an average depth across the areal projection rather than creating a formal 3D shape of the bone. Methods Generalized Procrustes analysis and thin plate splines were employed to create an average 3D shape template of the proximal femur that was subsequently warped to suit the size and shape of a single 2D radiographic image of a subject. CT scans of excised human femora, 18 and 24 scanned at pixel resolutions of 1.08 mm and 0.674 mm, respectively, were equally split into training (created 3D shape template) and test cohorts. Results The mean absolute depth errors of 3.4 mm and 1.73 mm, respectively, for the two CT pixel sizes are comparable with previous approaches based upon multiple 2D input projections. Conclusions This technique has the potential to derive volumetric density from BMD and to facilitate 3D finite element analysis for prediction of the mechanical integrity of the proximal femur. It may further be applied to other anatomical bone sites such as the distal radius and lumbar spine.

Losing their marbles : syntax-free programming for assessing problem-solving skills

Novice programmers have difficulty developing an algorithmic solution while simultaneously obeying the syntactic constraints of the target programming language. To see how students fare in algorithmic problem solving when not burdened by syntax, we conducted an experiment in which a large class of beginning programmers were required to write a solution to a computational problem in structured English, as if instructing a child, without reference to program code at all. The students produced an unexpectedly wide range of correct, and attempted, solutions, some of which had not occurred to their teachers. We also found that many common programming errors were evident in the natural language algorithms, including failure to ensure loop termination, hardwiring of solutions, failure to properly initialise the computation, and use of unnecessary temporary variables, suggesting that these mistakes are caused by inexperience at thinking algorithmically, rather than difficulties in expressing solutions as program code.

Security metrics for object-oriented class designs

Measuring quality attributes of object-oriented designs (e.g. maintainability and performance) has been covered by a number of studies. However, these studies have not considered security as much as other quality attributes. Also, most security studies focus at the level of individual program statements. This approach makes it hard and expensive to discover and fix vulnerabilities caused by design errors. In this work, we focus on the security design of an object oriented application and define a number of security metrics. These metrics allow designers to discover and fix security vulnerabilities at an early stage, and help compare the security of various alternative designs. In particular, we propose seven security metrics to measure Data Encapsulation (accessibility) and Cohesion (interactions) of a given object-oriented class from the point of view of potential information flow.

Barriers to effective knowledge transfer in project-based organisations

Effective knowledge transfer can prevent the reinvention of systems and ideas as well as the repetition of errors. Doing so will save substantial time, as well as contribute to better performance of projects and project-based organisations (PBOs). Despite the importance of knowledge, PBOs face serious barriers to the effective transfer of knowledge, while their characteristics, such as unique and innovative approaches taken during every project, mean they have much to gain from knowledge transfer. As each new project starts, there is the strong potential to reinvent the process, rather than utilise learning from previous projects. In fact, rework is one of the primary factors contributing to construction industry's poor performance and productivity. Current literature has identified several barriers to knowledge transfer in organisational settings in general, and not specifically PBOs. However, PBOs significantly differ from other types of organisations. PBOs operate mainly on temporary projects, where time is a crucial factor and people are more mobile than in other organisational settings. The aim of this research is to identify the key barriers that prevent effective knowledge transfer for PBOs, exclusively. Interviews with project managers and senior managers of PBOs complement the analysis of the literature and provide professional expertise. This research is crucial to gaining a better understanding of obstacles that hinder knowledge transfer in projects. The main contribution of this research is exclusive for PBO, list of key barriers that organisation and project managers need to consider to ensure effective knowledge transfer and better project management.

Bearing-only SLAM : a vision-based navigation system for autonomous robots

To navigate successfully in a previously unexplored environment, a mobile robot must be able to estimate the spatial relationships of the objects of interest accurately. A Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) sys- tem employs its sensors to build incrementally a map of its surroundings and to localize itself in the map simultaneously. The aim of this research project is to develop a SLAM system suitable for self propelled household lawnmowers. The proposed bearing-only SLAM system requires only an omnidirec- tional camera and some inexpensive landmarks. The main advantage of an omnidirectional camera is the panoramic view of all the landmarks in the scene. Placing landmarks in a lawn field to define the working domain is much easier and more flexible than installing the perimeter wire required by existing autonomous lawnmowers. The common approach of existing bearing-only SLAM methods relies on a motion model for predicting the robot’s pose and a sensor model for updating the pose. In the motion model, the error on the estimates of object positions is cumulated due mainly to the wheel slippage. Quantifying accu- rately the uncertainty of object positions is a fundamental requirement. In bearing-only SLAM, the Probability Density Function (PDF) of landmark position should be uniform along the observed bearing. Existing methods that approximate the PDF with a Gaussian estimation do not satisfy this uniformity requirement. This thesis introduces both geometric and proba- bilistic methods to address the above problems. The main novel contribu- tions of this thesis are: 1. A bearing-only SLAM method not requiring odometry. The proposed method relies solely on the sensor model (landmark bearings only) without relying on the motion model (odometry). The uncertainty of the estimated landmark positions depends on the vision error only, instead of the combination of both odometry and vision errors. 2. The transformation of the spatial uncertainty of objects. This thesis introduces a novel method for translating the spatial un- certainty of objects estimated from a moving frame attached to the robot into the global frame attached to the static landmarks in the environment. 3. The characterization of an improved PDF for representing landmark position in bearing-only SLAM. The proposed PDF is expressed in polar coordinates, and the marginal probability on range is constrained to be uniform. Compared to the PDF estimated from a mixture of Gaussians, the PDF developed here has far fewer parameters and can be easily adopted in a probabilistic framework, such as a particle filtering system. The main advantages of our proposed bearing-only SLAM system are its lower production cost and flexibility of use. The proposed system can be adopted in other domestic robots as well, such as vacuum cleaners or robotic toys when terrain is essentially 2D.

Automating human thought processes for a UAV forced landing

This paper describes the current status of a program to develop an automated forced landing system for a fixed-wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). This automated system seeks to emulate human pilot thought processes when planning for and conducting an engine-off emergency landing. Firstly, a path planning algorithm that extends Dubins curves to 3D space is presented. This planning element is then combined with a nonlinear guidance and control logic, and simulated test results demonstrate the robustness of this approach to strong winds during a glided descent. The average path deviation errors incurred are comparable to or even better than that of manned, powered aircraft. Secondly, a study into suitable multi-criteria decision making approaches and the problems that confront the decision-maker is presented. From this study, it is believed that decision processes that utilize human expert knowledge and fuzzy logic reasoning are most suited to the problem at hand, and further investigations will be conducted to identify the particular technique/s to be implemented in simulations and field tests. The automated UAV forced landing approach presented in this paper is promising, and will allow the progression of this technology from the development and simulation stages through to a prototype system

Optimisation of performance in top level athletes : an action-based coping approach : a commentary

INTRODUCTION In their target article, Yuri Hanin and Muza Hanina outlined a novel multidisciplinary approach to performance optimisation for sport psychologists called the Identification-Control-Correction (ICC) programme. According to the authors, this empirically-verified, psycho-pedagogical strategy is designed to improve the quality of coaching and consistency of performance in highly skilled athletes and involves a number of steps including: (i) identifying and increasing self-awareness of ‘optimal’ and ‘non-optimal’ movement patterns for individual athletes; (ii) learning to deliberately control the process of task execution; and iii), correcting habitual and random errors and managing radical changes of movement patterns. Although no specific examples were provided, the ICC programme has apparently been successful in enhancing the performance of Olympic-level athletes. In this commentary, we address what we consider to be some important issues arising from the target article. We specifically focus attention on the contentious topic of optimization in neurobiological movement systems, the role of constraints in shaping emergent movement patterns and the functional role of movement variability in producing stable performance outcomes. In our view, the target article and, indeed, the proposed ICC programme, would benefit from a dynamical systems theoretical backdrop rather than the cognitive scientific approach that appears to be advocated. Although Hanin and Hanina made reference to, and attempted to integrate, constructs typically associated with dynamical systems theoretical accounts of motor control and learning (e.g., Bernstein’s problem, movement variability, etc.), these ideas required more detailed elaboration, which we provide in this commentary.

Groundwater flow model of the Logan river alluvial aquifer system Josephville, South East Queensland

The study focuses on an alluvial plain situated within a large meander of the Logan River at Josephville near Beaudesert which supports a factory that processes gelatine. The plant draws water from on site bores, as well as the Logan River, for its production processes and produces approximately 1.5 ML per day (Douglas Partners, 2004) of waste water containing high levels of dissolved ions. At present a series of treatment ponds are used to aerate the waste water reducing the level of organic matter; the water is then used to irrigate grazing land around the site. Within the study the hydrogeology is investigated, a conceptual groundwater model is produced and a numerical groundwater flow model is developed from this. On the site are several bores that access groundwater, plus a network of monitoring bores. Assessment of drilling logs shows the area is formed from a mixture of poorly sorted Quaternary alluvial sediments with a laterally continuous aquifer comprised of coarse sands and fine gravels that is in contact with the river. This aquifer occurs at a depth of between 11 and 15 metres and is overlain by a heterogeneous mixture of silts, sands and clays. The study investigates the degree of interaction between the river and the groundwater within the fluvially derived sediments for reasons of both environmental monitoring and sustainability of the potential local groundwater resource. A conceptual hydrogeological model of the site proposes two hydrostratigraphic units, a basal aquifer of coarse-grained materials overlain by a thick semi-confining unit of finer materials. From this, a two-layer groundwater flow model and hydraulic conductivity distribution was developed based on bore monitoring and rainfall data using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) and PEST (Doherty, 2004) based on GMS 6.5 software (EMSI, 2008). A second model was also considered with the alluvium represented as a single hydrogeological unit. Both models were calibrated to steady state conditions and sensitivity analyses of the parameters has demonstrated that both models are very stable for changes in the range of ± 10% for all parameters and still reasonably stable for changes up to ± 20% with RMS errors in the model always less that 10%. The preferred two-layer model was found to give the more realistic representation of the site, where water level variations and the numerical modeling showed that the basal layer of coarse sands and fine gravels is hydraulically connected to the river and the upper layer comprising a poorly sorted mixture of silt-rich clays and sands of very low permeability limits infiltration from the surface to the lower layer. The paucity of historical data has limited the numerical modelling to a steady state one based on groundwater levels during a drought period and forecasts for varying hydrological conditions (e.g. short term as well as prolonged dry and wet conditions) cannot reasonably be made from such a model. If future modelling is to be undertaken it is necessary to establish a regular program of groundwater monitoring and maintain a long term database of water levels to enable a transient model to be developed at a later stage. This will require a valid monitoring network to be designed with additional bores required for adequate coverage of the hydrogeological conditions at the Josephville site. Further investigations would also be enhanced by undertaking pump testing to investigate hydrogeological properties in the aquifer.

Improved detection and tracking of objects in surveillance video

Surveillance networks are typically monitored by a few people, viewing several monitors displaying the camera feeds. It is then very difficult for a human operator to effectively detect events as they happen. Recently, computer vision research has begun to address ways to automatically process some of this data, to assist human operators. Object tracking, event recognition, crowd analysis and human identification at a distance are being pursued as a means to aid human operators and improve the security of areas such as transport hubs. The task of object tracking is key to the effective use of more advanced technologies. To recognize an event people and objects must be tracked. Tracking also enhances the performance of tasks such as crowd analysis or human identification. Before an object can be tracked, it must be detected. Motion segmentation techniques, widely employed in tracking systems, produce a binary image in which objects can be located. However, these techniques are prone to errors caused by shadows and lighting changes. Detection routines often fail, either due to erroneous motion caused by noise and lighting effects, or due to the detection routines being unable to split occluded regions into their component objects. Particle filters can be used as a self contained tracking system, and make it unnecessary for the task of detection to be carried out separately except for an initial (often manual) detection to initialise the filter. Particle filters use one or more extracted features to evaluate the likelihood of an object existing at a given point each frame. Such systems however do not easily allow for multiple objects to be tracked robustly, and do not explicitly maintain the identity of tracked objects. This dissertation investigates improvements to the performance of object tracking algorithms through improved motion segmentation and the use of a particle filter. A novel hybrid motion segmentation / optical flow algorithm, capable of simultaneously extracting multiple layers of foreground and optical flow in surveillance video frames is proposed. The algorithm is shown to perform well in the presence of adverse lighting conditions, and the optical flow is capable of extracting a moving object. The proposed algorithm is integrated within a tracking system and evaluated using the ETISEO (Evaluation du Traitement et de lInterpretation de Sequences vidEO - Evaluation for video understanding) database, and significant improvement in detection and tracking performance is demonstrated when compared to a baseline system. A Scalable Condensation Filter (SCF), a particle filter designed to work within an existing tracking system, is also developed. The creation and deletion of modes and maintenance of identity is handled by the underlying tracking system; and the tracking system is able to benefit from the improved performance in uncertain conditions arising from occlusion and noise provided by a particle filter. The system is evaluated using the ETISEO database. The dissertation then investigates fusion schemes for multi-spectral tracking systems. Four fusion schemes for combining a thermal and visual colour modality are evaluated using the OTCBVS (Object Tracking and Classification in and Beyond the Visible Spectrum) database. It is shown that a middle fusion scheme yields the best results and demonstrates a significant improvement in performance when compared to a system using either mode individually. Findings from the thesis contribute to improve the performance of semi-automated video processing and therefore improve security in areas under surveillance.

Rethinking the notion of culture in the national history curriculum

Major global changes are placing new demands on the Australian education system. Recent statements by the Prime Minister, together with current education policy and national curriculum documents available in the public domain, look to education’s role in promoting economic prosperity and social cohesion. Collectively, they emphasise the need to equip young Australians with the knowledge, understandings and skills required to compete in the global economy and participate as engaged citizens in a culturally diverse world. However, the decision to prioritise discipline-based learning in the forthcoming Australian history curriculum without specifically encompassing culture as a referent, raises the following question. How will students acquire the cultural knowledge, understandings and skills necessary for this process? This paper addresses this question by situating the current push for a national history curriculum, with specific reference to the study of Indigenous history and the study of Asia in Australia.

Decision support system for contractor pre-qualification : artificial neural network model

The selection criteria for contractor pre-qualification are characterized by the co-existence of both quantitative and qualitative data. The qualitative data is non-linear, uncertain and imprecise. An ideal decision support system for contractor pre-qualification should have the ability of handling both quantitative and qualitative data, and of mapping the complicated nonlinear relationship of the selection criteria, such that rational and consistent decisions can be made. In this research paper, an artificial neural network model was developed to assist public clients identifying suitable contractors for tendering. The pre-qualification criteria (variables) were identified for the model. One hundred and twelve real pre-qualification cases were collected from civil engineering projects in Hong Kong, and eighty-eight hypothetical pre-qualification cases were also generated according to the “If-then” rules used by professionals in the pre-qualification process. The results of the analysis totally comply with current practice (public developers in Hong Kong). Each pre-qualification case consisted of input ratings for candidate contractors’ attributes and their corresponding pre-qualification decisions. The training of the neural network model was accomplished by using the developed program, in which a conjugate gradient descent algorithm was incorporated for improving the learning performance of the network. Cross-validation was applied to estimate the generalization errors based on the “re-sampling” of training pairs. The case studies show that the artificial neural network model is suitable for mapping the complicated nonlinear relationship between contractors’ attributes and their corresponding pre-qualification (disqualification) decisions. The artificial neural network model can be concluded as an ideal alternative for performing the contractor pre-qualification task.

Sunglasses, traffic signals, and color vision deficiencies

Purpose: To determine (a) the effect of different sunglass tint colorations on traffic signal detection and recognition for color normal and color deficient observers, and (b) the adequacy of coloration requirements in current sunglass standards. Methods: Twenty color-normals and 49 color-deficient males performed a tracking task while wearing sunglasses of different colorations (clear, gray, green, yellow-green, yellow-brown, red-brown). At random intervals, simulated traffic light signals were presented against a white background at 5° to the right or left and observers were instructed to identify signal color (red/yellow/green) by pressing a response button as quickly as possible; response times and response errors were recorded. Results: Signal color and sunglass tint had significant effects on response times and error rates (p < 0.05), with significant between-color group differences and interaction effects. Response times for color deficient people were considerably slower than color normals for both red and yellow signals for all sunglass tints, but for green signals they were only noticeably slower with the green and yellow-green lenses. For most of the color deficient groups, there were recognition errors for yellow signals combined with the yellow-green and green tints. In addition, deuteranopes had problems for red signals combined with red-brown and yellow-brown tints, and protanopes had problems for green signals combined with the green tint and for red signals combined with the red-brown tint. Conclusions: Many sunglass tints currently permitted for drivers and riders cause a measurable decrement in the ability of color deficient observers to detect and recognize traffic signals. In general, combinations of signals and sunglasses of similar colors are of particular concern. This is prima facie evidence of a risk in the use of these tints for driving and cautions against the relaxation of coloration limits in sunglasses beyond those represented in the study.

The on-road difficulties of older drivers and their relationship with self-reported motor vehicle crashes

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the driving difficulties of older adults using a detailed assessment of driving performance and to link this with self-reported retrospective and prospective crashes. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: On-road driving assessment. PARTICIPANTS: Two hundred sixty-seven community-living adults aged 70 to 88 randomly recruited through the electoral roll. MEASUREMENTS: Performance on a standardized measure of driving performance. RESULTS: Lane positioning, approach, and blind spot monitoring were the most common error types, and errors occurred most frequently in situations involving merging and maneuvering. Drivers reporting more retrospective or prospective crashes made significantly more driving errors. Driver instructor interventions during self-navigation (where the instructor had to brake or take control of the steering to avoid an accident) were significantly associated with higher retrospective and prospective crashes; every instructor intervention almost doubled prospective crash risk. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that on-road driving assessment provides useful information on older driver difficulties, with the self-directed component providing the most valuable information.