Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

Beyond ‘best practices': the international regulation of capital markets

It is widely acknowledged that there is considerable international pressure for international ‘best practices’ to be adopted via national legislation. This would occur either by means of model laws or through the passing of country specific legislation that closely replicates foreign legal formats, administrative rules, and or regulation. These attempts to spread the implementation of ‘best practices’ have gained importance in the international debate due to the liberalization of international capital flows. The oversight, country reports, and technical assistance carried out by international organizations along with the growing internationalization of investors have also contributed to this growing pressure. In this respect, due to the constant evolution of transactions and the end objective of making sure that capital markets are developed with just rules, structures, and methods, this article looks to analyze the adoption of standardized models of capital market regulation. Furthermore it looks to examine the motivation and interest of states and other ‘stakeholders’ at the international level.

A cláusula de melhores esforços (best efforts) na prática jurídica brasileira: uma nova perspectiva

A utilização da cláusula de melhores esforços, ou best efforts, é prática comum do empresariado e advogados nacionais. Este trabalho realiza um levantamento a fim de demonstrar a alta incidência em acordos sofisticados entre acionistas de companhias abertas brasileiras. Tal inclusão tem fortes motivos econômicos, a justificar o reconhecimento e interpretação pelo aplicador do direito nacional. O padrão de conduta dessa obrigação de meio deve ser analisado por critérios distintos, por meio de elementos subjetivos e objetivos, bem como à luz do contexto social e usos e costumes relacionados, baseados em normas e princípios de direito privado amplamente aceitos. A escassa jurisprudência sobre o tema bem como a já consolidada jurisprudência norte-americana contribuem para o melhor entendimento sobre a natureza jurídica e o modelo de interpretação de conduta a ser aplicado, diferenciando a obrigação de melhores esforços dos deveres decorrentes da boa-fé objetiva. Entre as conclusões, pode-se mencionar que a cláusula de melhores esforços não deve ser igualada aos deveres de boa-fé ou a um mero dever moral. Seu reconhecimento legal como padrão de conduta distinto, apurado conforme cada caso, deve ser amparado pelo ordenamento jurídico nacional

Best practices for the implantation of ISO 14001 norms: a study of change management in two industrial companies in the Midwest region of the state of São Paulo - Brazil

Among the difficulties found in the implementation of ISO 14001 systems, resistance to change can always be found. It is mainly a consequence of the hurry to change, loss of focus, concentration of decision making at the level of top management, arbitrary imposition of objectives and results, faulty communication, and the absence of motivational and financial incentive for change.Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to present best practices with respect to the management of organizational change due to the implementation of ISO 14001 norms in two industrial companies in the Midwest region of the State of São Paulo - Brazil. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Theoretical Approximations Between Brazilian and Spanish Authors' Production in the Field of Knowledge Organization in the Production of Journals on Information Science in Brazil

This work identifies and analyzes literature about knowledge organization (KO), expressed in scientific journals communication of information science (IS). It performs an exploratory study on the Base de Dados Referencial de Artigos de Periodicos em Ciência da Informacio (BRAPCI, Reference Database of Journal Articles on Information Science) between the years 2000 and 2010. The descriptors relating to "knowledge organization" are used in order to recover and analyze the corresponding articles and to identify descriptors and concepts which integrate the semantic universe related to KO. Through the analysis of content, based on metrical studies, this article gathers and interprets data relating to documents and authors. Through this, it demonstrates the development of this field and its research fronts according to the observed characteristics, as well as noting the transformation indicative in the production of knowledge. The work describes the influences of the Spanish researchers on Brazilian literature in the fields of knowledge and information organization. As a result, it presents the most cited and productive authors, the theoretical currents which support them, and the most significant relationships of the Spanish-Brazilian authors network. Based on the constant key-words analysis in the cited articles, the co-existence of the French conception current and the incipient Spanish influence in Brazil is observed. Through this, it contributes to the comprehension of the thematic range relating to KO, stimulating both criticism and self-criticism, debate and knowledge creation, based on studies that have been developed and institutionalized in academic contexts in Spain and Brazil.

Best site for embryo transfer: the upper or lower half of endometrial cavity?

BACKGROUND: the objective of the present study was to determine the importance of the site of embryo transfer (upper or lower half endometrial cavity) on implantation and clinical pregnancy rates. METHODS: A total of 400 transfers guided by ultrasound were randomly assigned to two groups according to the distance between the uterine fundus and the catheter tip at the time of embryo placement. Group I (n=200) consisted of transfers corresponding to a distance of <50% of the endometrial cavity length (ECL), i.e. transfer in upper half of the cavity; and group II (n=200) consisted of transfers corresponding to a distance of greater than or equal to50%, of the ECL, i.e. transfer in lower half of cavity. The Student's t-test, Mann-Whitney test and Fisher's exact test were used where appropriate. RESULTS: the general characteristics of the study population and the main transfer cycle characteristics had an equal distribution (P>0.05) between groups I and II. No significant difference in implantation or pregnancy rates was observed between groups I and II. CONCLUSION: the implantation or pregnancy rates were similar whether the embryos were deposited in the upper or lower half of the endometrial cavity.

Genetic and environmental factors that affect the best time of Thoroughbred horses in Brazil

On the basis of information provided by the Brazilian Association of Race Horse Breeders, we analysed the racing performance of 947 Thoroughbred horses in races held from 1985 to 1992. The performance was evaluated using the best, time of the animals. The variance component was obtained by the derivative-free restricted maximum likelihood method, and the model used contained fixed effects of the racing month and year, sex, race track, track condition, animal age, number of competitors in race, and distance, and the random animal effect. The low heritability estimate obtained (0.12) indicates that selection based on animal phenotypic value must induce small genetic changes in this trail.

Likelihood approximations and discrete models for tied survival data

Ties among event times are often recorded in survival studies. For example, in a two week laboratory study where event times are measured in days, ties are very likely to occur. The proportional hazards model might be used in this setting using an approximated partial likelihood function. This approximation works well when the number of ties is small. on the other hand, discrete regression models are suggested when the data are heavily tied. However, in many situations it is not clear which approach should be used in practice. In this work, empirical guidelines based on Monte Carlo simulations are provided. These recommendations are based on a measure of the amount of tied data present and the mean square error. An example illustrates the proposed criterion.

Strand Analysis, a free online program for the computational identification of the best RNA interference (RNAi) targets based on Gibbs free energy

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Catch-per-unit-effort: which estimator is best?

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Calculating the Best Dual Bound for Problems with Multiple Lagrangian Relaxations

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Physical approximations for the nonlinear evolution of perturbations in inhomogeneous dark energy scenarios

The abundance and distribution of collapsed objects such as galaxy clusters will become an important tool to investigate the nature of dark energy and dark matter. Number counts of very massive objects are sensitive not only to the equation of state of dark energy, which parametrizes the smooth component of its pressure, but also to the sound speed of dark energy, which determines the amount of pressure in inhomogeneous and collapsed structures. Since the evolution of these structures must be followed well into the nonlinear regime, and a fully relativistic framework for this regime does not exist yet, we compare two approximate schemes: the widely used spherical collapse model and the pseudo-Newtonian approach. We show that both approximation schemes convey identical equations for the density contrast, when the pressure perturbation of dark energy is parametrized in terms of an effective sound speed. We also make a comparison of these approximate approaches to general relativity in the linearized regime, which lends some support to the approximations.

Approximations for the generalized temperature integral: a method based on quadrature rules

The generalized temperature integral I(m, x) appears in non-isothermal kinetic analysis when the frequency factor depends on the temperature. A procedure based on Gaussian quadrature to obtain analytical approximations for the integral I(m, x) was proposed. The results showed good agreement between the obtained approximation values and those obtained by numerical integration. Unless other approximations found in literature, the methodology presented in this paper can be easily generalized in order to obtain approximations with the maximum of accurate.