Bayesian classification criterion for forensic multivariate data

This study presents a classification criteria for two-class Cannabis seedlings. As the cultivation of drug type cannabis is forbidden in Switzerland, law enforcement authorities regularly ask laboratories to determine cannabis plant's chemotype from seized material in order to ascertain that the plantation is legal or not. In this study, the classification analysis is based on data obtained from the relative proportion of three major leaf compounds measured by gas-chromatography interfaced with mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The aim is to discriminate between drug type (illegal) and fiber type (legal) cannabis at an early stage of the growth. A Bayesian procedure is proposed: a Bayes factor is computed and classification is performed on the basis of the decision maker specifications (i.e. prior probability distributions on cannabis type and consequences of classification measured by losses). Classification rates are computed with two statistical models and results are compared. Sensitivity analysis is then performed to analyze the robustness of classification criteria.

Spaces with Noetherian cohomology

Is the cohomology of the classifying space of a p-compact group, with Noetherian twisted coefficients, a Noetherian module? This note provides, over the ring of p-adic integers, such a generalization to p-compact groups of the Evens-Venkov Theorem. We consider the cohomology of a space with coefficients in a module, and we compare Noetherianity over the field with p elements, with Noetherianity over the p-adic integers, in the case when the fundamental group is a finite p-group.

Reduction theorems for operators on the cones of monotone functions

For a quasilinear operator on the semiaxis a reduction theorem is proved on the cones of monotone functions in Lp - Lq setting for 0 < q < ∞, 1<= p < ∞. The case 0 < p < 1 is also studied for operators with additional properties. In particular, we obtain critera for three-weight inequalities for the Hardy-type operators with Oinarov' kernel on monotone functions in the case 0 < q < p <= 1.

Multi-ethnic fine-mapping of 14 central adiposity loci.

The Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium identified 14 loci in European Ancestry (EA) individuals associated with waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) adjusted for body mass index. These loci are wide and narrowing the signals remains necessary. Twelve of 14 loci identified in GIANT EA samples retained strong associations with WHR in our joint EA/individuals of African Ancestry (AA) analysis (log-Bayes factor >6.1). Trans-ethnic analyses at five loci (TBX15-WARS2, LYPLAL1, ADAMTS9, LY86 and ITPR2-SSPN) substantially narrowed the signals to smaller sets of variants, some of which are in regions that have evidence of regulatory activity. By leveraging varying linkage disequilibrium structures across different populations, single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with strong signals and narrower credible sets from trans-ethnic meta-analysis of central obesity provide more precise localizations of potential functional variants and suggest a possible regulatory role. Meta-analysis results for WHR were obtained from 77 167 EA participants from GIANT and 23 564 AA participants from the African Ancestry Anthropometry Genetics Consortium. For fine mapping we interrogated SNPs within ± 250 kb flanking regions of 14 previously reported index SNPs from loci discovered in EA populations by performing trans-ethnic meta-analysis of results from the EA and AA meta-analyses. We applied a Bayesian approach that leverages allelic heterogeneity across populations to combine meta-analysis results and aids in fine-mapping shared variants at these locations. We annotated variants using information from the ENCODE Consortium and Roadmap Epigenomics Project to prioritize variants for possible functionality.

Associer et évaluer

Le forensicien joue fréquemment le rôle d'expert judiciaire. Dans cette responsabilité, il doit par exemple évaluer le lien qu'est susceptible d'entretenir une trace avec une source putative (une personne, un objet) donnée. L'expert examine aussi parfois la relation entre deux traces (proviennent-elles de la même source ?), combine les indices, ou interprète les activités possibles en regard des traces recueillies. Un mouvement dominant et intégrateur préconise d'effectuer cette évaluation au moyen de probabilités qui expriment dans un cadre formel les incertitudes inhérentes à ce genre de questions. Basé sur le théorème découvert par le révérend Bayes sur la probabilité des causes, le rapport de vraisemblance équilibre le point de vue de l'accusation (par exemple, probabilité de la trace, sachant que x en est à l'origine) et de la défense (la probabilité de la trace si la source n'est pas x). L'exploitation de ce modèle fait appel à l'expérience de l'expert, mais aussi à de grandes quantités de données représentatives qui doivent encore être rassemblées. Une tendance consiste aussi à exploiter pour cela les données stockées par l'utilisation de systèmes automatisés (empreintes digitales, projectiles, etc.). De nouvelles possibilités d'extraire des caractéristiques encore inexplorées à partir des traces sont susceptibles d'augmenter considérablement les moyens pour les experts judiciaires d'apporter des réponses probabilistes dans des circonstances toujours plus variées aux autorités judiciaires qui les mandatent.

Inflammatory Markers and Incident Heart Failure Risk in Older Adults: The Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

Background: Inflammation is associated with heart failure (HF) risk factors and also directly affects myocardial function. However, the association between inflammation and HF risk in older adults has not been adequately evaluated. Methods: The association of baseline serum concentrations of interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF- ), and C-reactive protein (CRP) with incident HF was assessed with Cox proportional hazards models among 2610 older persons without prevalent HF enrolled in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study (age, 73.6±2.9 years; 48.3% men; 59.6% white). Results: Median (interquartile range) baseline concentrations of IL-6, TNF- , and CRP were 1.80 (1.23, 2.76) pg/mL, 3.14 (2.41, 4.06) pg/mL, and 1.64 (0.99, 3.04) µg/mL, respectively. On follow-up (median, 9.4 years), 311 participants (11.9%) developed HF. In models controlling for clinical predictors of HF and incident coronary heart disease, doubling of IL-6, TNF- , and CRP concentrations was associated with 34% (95% CI, 18 -52%; P<.001), 33% (95% CI, 9 - 63%; P=.006), and 13% (95% CI, 3-24%; P=.01) increase in HF risk, respectively. In models including all 3 markers, IL-6 and TNF- , but not CRP, remained significant. Findings were similar across sex and race. Post-HF ejection fraction (EF) was available in 239 (76.8%) cases. When only cases with preserved EF were considered (n=105), IL-6 (HR per doubling, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.28 -1.94; P<.001), TNF- (HR per doubling, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.12-2.26; P=.01), and CRP (HR per doubling, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.05-1.44; P=.01) were all associated with HF risk in adjusted models. In contrast, when only cases with reduced EF (n=134) were considered, only IL-6 attained marginal significance in adjusted models (HR per doubling, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.99 -1.46; P=.06). Participants with 2 or 3 markers above median had pronounced HF risk in adjusted models (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.12-2.46; P=.01; and HR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.16 -2.65; P=.007, respectively). Addition of IL-6 to the clinical Health ABC HF model improved discrimination (C index from 0.717 to 0.734; P=.001) and fit (decreased Bayes information criterion by 17.8; P<.001). Conclusions: Inflammatory markers are associated with HF risk among older adults and may improve HF risk stratification.

Drugs Associated with Hepatotoxicity and their Reporting Frequency of Liver Adverse Events in VigiBase (TM) Unified List Based on International Collaborative Work

BACKGROUND Challenges exist in the clinical diagnosis of drug-induced liver injury (DILI) and in obtaining information on hepatotoxicity in humans. OBJECTIVE (i) To develop a unified list that combines drugs incriminated in well vetted or adjudicated DILI cases from many recognized sources and drugs that have been subjected to serious regulatory actions due to hepatotoxicity; and (ii) to supplement the drug list with data on reporting frequencies of liver events in the WHO individual case safety report database (VigiBase). DATA SOURCES AND EXTRACTION (i) Drugs identified as causes of DILI at three major DILI registries; (ii) drugs identified as causes of drug-induced acute liver failure (ALF) in six different data sources, including major ALF registries and previously published ALF studies; and (iii) drugs identified as being subjected to serious governmental regulatory actions due to their hepatotoxicity in Europe or the US were collected. The reporting frequency of adverse events was determined using VigiBase, computed as Empirical Bayes Geometric Mean (EBGM) with 90% confidence interval for two customized terms, 'overall liver injury' and 'ALF'. EBGM of >or=2 was considered a disproportional increase in reporting frequency. The identified drugs were then characterized in terms of regional divergence, published case reports, serious regulatory actions, and reporting frequency of 'overall liver injury' and 'ALF' calculated from VigiBase. DATA SYNTHESIS After excluding herbs, supplements and alternative medicines, a total of 385 individual drugs were identified; 319 drugs were identified in the three DILI registries, 107 from the six ALF registries (or studies) and 47 drugs that were subjected to suspension or withdrawal in the US or Europe due to their hepatotoxicity. The identified drugs varied significantly between Spain, the US and Sweden. Of the 319 drugs identified in the DILI registries of adjudicated cases, 93.4% were found in published case reports, 1.9% were suspended or withdrawn due to hepatotoxicity and 25.7% were also identified in the ALF registries/studies. In VigiBase, 30.4% of the 319 drugs were associated with disproportionally higher reporting frequency of 'overall liver injury' and 83.1% were associated with at least one reported case of ALF. CONCLUSIONS This newly developed list of drugs associated with hepatotoxicity and the multifaceted analysis on hepatotoxicity will aid in causality assessment and clinical diagnosis of DILI and will provide a basis for further characterization of hepatotoxicity.

GNSS signal detection based on first-order absolute statistics

Aquest projecte es centra principalment en el detector no coherent d’un GPS. Per tal de caracteritzar el procés de detecció d’un receptor, es necessita conèixer l’estadística implicada. Pel cas dels detectors no coherents convencionals, l’estadística de segon ordre intervé plenament. Les prestacions que ens dóna l’estadística de segon ordre, plasmada en la ROC, són prou bons tot i que en diferents situacions poden no ser els millors. Aquest projecte intenta reproduir el procés de detecció mitjançant l’estadística de primer ordre com a alternativa a la ja coneguda i implementada estadística de segon ordre. Per tal d’aconseguir-ho, s’usen expressions basades en el Teorema Central del Límit i de les sèries Edgeworth com a bones aproximacions. Finalment, tant l’estadística convencional com l’estadística proposada són comparades, en termes de la ROC, per tal de determinar quin detector no coherent ofereix millor prestacions en cada situació.

Vectorial capacity, basic reproduction number, force of infection and all that: formal notation to complete and adjust their classical concepts and equations

A dimensional analysis of the classical equations related to the dynamics of vector-borne infections is presented. It is provided a formal notation to complete the expressions for the Ross' Threshold Theorem, the Macdonald's basic reproduction "rate" and sporozoite "rate", Garret-Jones' vectorial capacity and Dietz-Molineaux-Thomas' force of infection. The analysis was intended to provide a formal notation that complete the classical equations proposed by these authors.

Distortion theorems for quasiconformal mappings

L'any 1994, Astala publicà el reconegut teorema de distorió de l'àrea per aplicacions quasiconformes, un resultat innovador que va permetre que n'apareguessin nombrosos més dins d'aquest camp de l'anàlisi durant la darrera dècada. Ens centrem en les conseqüències que té en la distorsió de la mesura de Hausdorff. Seguim la demostració de Lacey, Sawyer i Uriarte-Tuero per la distorsió del contingut de Hausdorff, clarificant-ne alguns punts i canviant l'enfocament per l'acotació de la transformada de Beurling, on prenem les idees d'Astala, Clop, Tolsa, Uriarte-Tuero i Verdera.

Portafolio selection with skewness: a comparison of methods and a generalized two fund separation result

This contribution compares existing and newly developed techniques for geometrically representing mean-variances-kewness portfolio frontiers based on the rather widely adapted methodology of polynomial goal programming (PGP) on the one hand and the more recent approach based on the shortage function on the other hand. Moreover, we explain the working of these different methodologies in detail and provide graphical illustrations. Inspired by these illustrations, we prove a generalization of the well-known two fund separation theorem from traditionalmean-variance portfolio theory.

Sequential estimation of multipath MIMO-OFDM channels

Wireless “MIMO” systems, employing multiple transmit and receive antennas, promise a significant increase of channel capacity, while orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) is attracting a good deal of attention due to its robustness to multipath fading. Thus, the combination of both techniques is an attractive proposition for radio transmission. The goal of this paper is the description and analysis of a new and novel pilot-aided estimator of multipath block-fading channels. Typical models leading to estimation algorithms assume the number of multipath components and delays to be constant (and often known), while their amplitudes are allowed to vary with time. Our estimator is focused instead on the more realistic assumption that the number of channel taps is also unknown and varies with time following a known probabilistic model. The estimation problem arising from these assumptions is solved using Random-Set Theory (RST), whereby one regards the multipath-channel response as a single set-valued random entity.Within this framework, Bayesian recursive equations determine the evolution with time of the channel estimator. Due to the lack of a closed form for the solution of Bayesian equations, a (Rao–Blackwellized) particle filter (RBPF) implementation ofthe channel estimator is advocated. Since the resulting estimator exhibits a complexity which grows exponentially with the number of multipath components, a simplified version is also introduced. Simulation results describing the performance of our channel estimator demonstrate its effectiveness.

Multiple target tracking using random sets

This paper presents several algorithms for joint estimation of the target number and state in a time-varying scenario. Building on the results presented in [1], which considers estimation of the target number only, we assume that not only the target number, but also their state evolution must be estimated. In this context, we extend to this new scenario the Rao-Blackwellization procedure of [1] to compute Bayes recursions, thus defining reduced-complexity solutions for the multi-target set estimator. A performance assessmentis finally given both in terms of Circular Position Error Probability - aimed at evaluating the accuracy of the estimated track - and in terms of Cardinality Error Probability, aimed at evaluating the reliability of the target number estimates.

An evaluation of new parsimony-based versus parametric inference methods in biogeography: a case study using the globally distributed plant family Sapindaceae

Aim  Recently developed parametric methods in historical biogeography allow researchers to integrate temporal and palaeogeographical information into the reconstruction of biogeographical scenarios, thus overcoming a known bias of parsimony-based approaches. Here, we compare a parametric method, dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis (DEC), against a parsimony-based method, dispersal-vicariance analysis (DIVA), which does not incorporate branch lengths but accounts for phylogenetic uncertainty through a Bayesian empirical approach (Bayes-DIVA). We analyse the benefits and limitations of each method using the cosmopolitan plant family Sapindaceae as a case study.Location  World-wide.Methods  Phylogenetic relationships were estimated by Bayesian inference on a large dataset representing generic diversity within Sapindaceae. Lineage divergence times were estimated by penalized likelihood over a sample of trees from the posterior distribution of the phylogeny to account for dating uncertainty in biogeographical reconstructions. We compared biogeographical scenarios between Bayes-DIVA and two different DEC models: one with no geological constraints and another that employed a stratified palaeogeographical model in which dispersal rates were scaled according to area connectivity across four time slices, reflecting the changing continental configuration over the last 110 million years.Results  Despite differences in the underlying biogeographical model, Bayes-DIVA and DEC inferred similar biogeographical scenarios. The main differences were: (1) in the timing of dispersal events - which in Bayes-DIVA sometimes conflicts with palaeogeographical information, and (2) in the lower frequency of terminal dispersal events inferred by DEC. Uncertainty in divergence time estimations influenced both the inference of ancestral ranges and the decisiveness with which an area can be assigned to a node.Main conclusions  By considering lineage divergence times, the DEC method gives more accurate reconstructions that are in agreement with palaeogeographical evidence. In contrast, Bayes-DIVA showed the highest decisiveness in unequivocally reconstructing ancestral ranges, probably reflecting its ability to integrate phylogenetic uncertainty. Care should be taken in defining the palaeogeographical model in DEC because of the possibility of overestimating the frequency of extinction events, or of inferring ancestral ranges that are outside the extant species ranges, owing to dispersal constraints enforced by the model. The wide-spanning spatial and temporal model proposed here could prove useful for testing large-scale biogeographical patterns in plants.

Safety Effectiveness of High-Speed Expressway Signals, 2005

The safety benefit of signalizing intersections of high-speed divided expressways is considered. Analyses were conducted on 50 and 55 mph and on 55 mph only intersections, comparing unsignalized and signalized intersections. Results of the 55 mph analysis are included in this report. Matched-pair analysis indicates that generally, signalized intersections have higher crash rate but lower costs per crash. On the other hand, before-and-after analysis (intersections signalized between 1994 and 2001) indicates lower crash rates (~30 percent) and total costs (~10 percent) after signalization. Empirical Bayes (EB) adjusted before-and-after analysis reduces estimates of safety benefit (crash rate) to about 20 percent. The study shows how commonly used analyses can differ in their results, and that there is great variability in the safety performance of individual signalized locations. This variability and the effect of EB adjustment are demonstrated through the use of innovative graphics.