948 resultados para BAYESIAN NETWORKS


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Being in paid employment is socially valued, and is linked to health, financial security and time use. Issues arising from a lack of occupational choice and control, and from diminished role partnerships are particularly problematic in the lives of people with an intellectual disability. Informal support networks are shown to influence work opportunities for people without disabilities, but their impact on the work experiences of people with disability has not been thoroughly explored. The experience of 'work' and preparation for work was explored with a group of four people with an intellectual disability (the participants) and the key members of their informal support networks (network members) in New South Wales, Australia. Network members and participants were interviewed and participant observations of work and other activities were undertaken. Data analysis included open, conceptual and thematic coding. Data analysis software assisted in managing the large datasets across multiple team members. The insight and actions of network members created and sustained the employment and support opportunities that effectively matched the needs and interests of the participants. Recommendations for future research are outlined.

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Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) have become an important environmental concern along the western coast of the United States. Toxic and noxious blooms adversely impact the economies of coastal communities in the region, pose risks to human health, and cause mortality events that have resulted in the deaths of thousands of fish, marine mammals and seabirds. One goal of field-based research efforts on this topic is the development of predictive models of HABs that would enable rapid response, mitigation and ultimately prevention of these events. In turn, these objectives are predicated on understanding the environmental conditions that stimulate these transient phenomena. An embedded sensor network (Fig. 1), under development in the San Pedro Shelf region off the Southern California coast, is providing tools for acquiring chemical, physical and biological data at high temporal and spatial resolution to help document the emergence and persistence of HAB events, supporting the design and testing of predictive models, and providing contextual information for experimental studies designed to reveal the environmental conditions promoting HABs. The sensor platforms contained within this network include pier-based sensor arrays, ocean moorings, HF radar stations, along with mobile sensor nodes in the form of surface and subsurface autonomous vehicles. FreewaveTM radio modems facilitate network communication and form a minimally-intrusive, wireless communication infrastructure throughout the Southern California coastal region, allowing rapid and cost-effective data transfer. An emerging focus of this project is the incorporation of a predictive ocean model that assimilates near-real time, in situ data from deployed Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs). The model then assimilates the data to increase the skill of both nowcasts and forecasts, thus providing insight into bloom initiation as well as the movement of blooms or other oceanic features of interest (e.g., thermoclines, fronts, river discharge, etc.). From these predictions, deployed mobile sensors can be tasked to track a designated feature. This focus has led to the creation of a technology chain in which algorithms are being implemented for the innovative trajectory design for AUVs. Such intelligent mission planning is required to maneuver a vehicle to precise depths and locations that are the sites of active blooms, or physical/chemical features that might be sources of bloom initiation or persistence. The embedded network yields high-resolution, temporal and spatial measurements of pertinent environmental parameters and resulting biology (see Fig. 1). Supplementing this with ocean current information and remotely sensed imagery and meteorological data, we obtain a comprehensive foundation for developing a fundamental understanding of HAB events. This then directs labor- intensive and costly sampling efforts and analyses. Additionally, we provide coastal municipalities, managers and state agencies with detailed information to aid their efforts in providing responsible environmental stewardship of their coastal waters.

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We consider the problem of object tracking in a wireless multimedia sensor network (we mainly focus on the camera component in this work). The vast majority of current object tracking techniques, either centralised or distributed, assume unlimited energy, meaning these techniques don't translate well when applied within the constraints of low-power distributed systems. In this paper we develop and analyse a highly-scalable, distributed strategy to object tracking in wireless camera networks with limited resources. In the proposed system, cameras transmit descriptions of objects to a subset of neighbours, determined using a predictive forwarding strategy. The received descriptions are then matched at the next camera on the objects path using a probability maximisation process with locally generated descriptions. We show, via simulation, that our predictive forwarding and probabilistic matching strategy can significantly reduce the number of object-misses, ID-switches and ID-losses; it can also reduce the number of required transmissions over a simple broadcast scenario by up to 67%. We show that our system performs well under realistic assumptions about matching objects appearance using colour.

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Internationally the railway industry is facing a severe shortage of engineers with high level, relevant, profession and technical knowledge and abilities, in particular amongst engineers involved in the design, construction and maintenance of railway infrastructure. A unique graduate level program has been created to meet that global need via a fully online, distance education format. The development and operation of this Master of Engineering degree is proposed as a model of the process needed for the industry-relevance, flexible delivery, international networking, and professional development required for a successful graduate engineering program in the 21st century. In particular, the paper demonstrates how a mix of new and more familiar technologies are utilised through a variety of tasks to overcome the huge distances and multiple time zones that separate the participants across a growing number of countries, successfully achieving close and sustained interaction amongst the participants and railway experts.

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As the world’s rural populations continue to migrate from farmland to sprawling cities, transport networks form an impenetrable maze within which monocultures of urban form erupt from the spaces in‐between. These urban monocultures are as problematic to human activity in cities as cropping monocultures are to ecosystems in regional landscapes. In China, the speed of urbanisation is exacerbating the production of mono‐functional private and public spaces. Edges are tightly controlled. Barriers and management practices at these boundaries are discouraging the formation of new synergistic relationships, critical in the long‐term stability of ecosystems that host urban habitats. Some urban planners, engineers, urban designers, architects and landscape architects have recognised these shortcomings in contemporary Chinese cities. The ideology of sustainability, while critically debated, is bringing together thinking people in these and other professions under the umbrella of an ecological ethic. This essay aims to apply landscape ecology theory, a conceptual framework used by many professionals involved in land development processes, to a concept being developed by BAU International called Networks Cities: a city with its various land uses arranged in nets of continuity, adjacency, and superposition. It will consider six lesser‐known concepts in relation to creating enhanced human activity along (un)structured edges between proposed nets and suggest new frontiers that might be challenged in an eco‐city. Ecological theory suggests that sustaining biodiversity in regions and landscapes depends on habitat distribution patterns. Flora and fauna biologists have long studied edge habitats and have been confounded by the paradox that maximising the breadth of edges is detrimental to specialist species but favourable to generalist species. Generalist species of plants and animals tolerate frequent change in the landscape, frequenting two or more habitats for their survival. Specialist species are less tolerant of change, having specific habitat requirements during their life cycle. Protecting species richness then may be at odds with increasing mixed habitats or mixed‐use zones that are dynamic places where diverse activities occur. Forman (1995) in his book Land Mosaics however argues that these two objectives of land use management are entirely compatible. He postulates that an edge may be comprised of many small patches, corridors or convoluting boundaries of large patches. Many ecocentrists now consider humans to be just another species inhabiting the ecological environments of our cities. Hence habitat distribution theory may be useful in planning and designing better human habitats in a rapidly urbanising context like China. In less‐constructed environments, boundaries and edges provide important opportunities for the movement of multi‐habitat species into, along and from adjacent land use areas. For instance, invasive plants may escape into a national park from domestic gardens while wildlife may forage on garden plants in adjoining residential areas. It is at these interfaces that human interactions too flow backward and forward between land types. Spray applications of substances by farmers on cropland may disturb neighbouring homeowners while suburban residents may help themselves to farm produce on neighbouring orchards. Edge environments are some of the most dynamic and contested spaces in the landscape. Since most of us require access to at least two or three habitats diurnally, weekly, monthly or seasonally, their proximity to each other becomes critical in our attempts to improve the sustainability of our cities.

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The question posed in this chapter is: To what extent does current education theory and practice prepare graduates for the creative economy? We first define what we mean by the term creative economy, explain why we think it is a significant point of focus, derive its key features, describe the human capital requirements of these features, and then discuss whether current education theory and practice are producing these human capital requirements. The term creative economy can be critiqued as a shibboleth, but as a high level metaphor, it nevertheless has value in directing us away from certain sorts of economic activity and toward other kinds. Much economic activity is in no way creative. If I have a monopoly on some valued resource, I do not need to be creative. Other forms of economic activity are intensely creative. If I have no valued resources, I must create something that is valued. At its simplest and yet most profound, the idea of a creative economy suggests a capacity to compete based on engaging in a gainful activity that is different from everyone else’s, rather than pursuing the same endeavor more competitively than everyone else. The ability to differentiate on novelty is key to the concept of creative economy and key to our analysis of education for this economy. Therefore, we follow Potts and Cunningham (2008, p. 18) and Potts, Cunningham, Hartley, and Ormerod (2008) in their discussion of the economic significance of the creative industries and see the creative economy not as a sector but as a set of economic processes that act on the economy as a whole to invigorate innovation based growth. We see the creative economy as suffused with all industry rather than as a sector in its own right. These economic processes are essentially concerned with the production of new ideas that ultimately become new products, service, industry sectors, or, in some cases, process or product innovations in older sectors. Therefore, our starting point is that modern economies depend on innovation, and we see the core of innovation as new knowledge of some kind. We commence with some observations about innovation.

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The explosion in use of online social networks is an important phenomenon that provides a new set of entrepreneurial opportunities. Emerging musicians have been among the first to exploit this new market opportunity – and indeed, many have used it successfully. A recent study Carter (2009) reveals that artists who earned the most returns had an online presence on multiple social online sites and services such as MySpace and Facebook. These web pages are leveraged to build fan bases and develop different types of revenue streams. Yet, little is currently known about discovery or exploitation of such opportunities.

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This paper presents a robust place recognition algorithm for mobile robots. The framework proposed combines nonlinear dimensionality reduction, nonlinear regression under noise, and variational Bayesian learning to create consistent probabilistic representations of places from images. These generative models are learnt from a few images and used for multi-class place recognition where classification is computed from a set of feature-vectors. Recognition can be performed in near real-time and accounts for complexity such as changes in illumination, occlusions and blurring. The algorithm was tested with a mobile robot in indoor and outdoor environments with sequences of 1579 and 3820 images respectively. This framework has several potential applications such as map building, autonomous navigation, search-rescue tasks and context recognition.

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The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the validity of using Gaussian mixture models (GMM) for representing probabilistic distributions in a decentralised data fusion (DDF) framework. GMMs are a powerful and compact stochastic representation allowing efficient communication of feature properties in large scale decentralised sensor networks. It will be shown that GMMs provide a basis for analytical solutions to the update and prediction operations for general Bayesian filtering. Furthermore, a variant on the Covariance Intersect algorithm for Gaussian mixtures will be presented ensuring a conservative update for the fusion of correlated information between two nodes in the network. In addition, purely visual sensory data will be used to show that decentralised data fusion and tracking of non-Gaussian states observed by multiple autonomous vehicles is feasible.

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Estimating potential health risks associated with recycled (reused) water is highly complex given the multiple factors affecting water quality. We take a conceptual model, which represents the factors and pathways by which recycled water may pose a risk of contracting gastroenteritis, convert the conceptual model to a Bayesian net, and quantify the model using one expert’s opinion. This allows us to make various predictions as to the risks posed under various scenarios. Bayesian nets provide an additional way of modeling the determinants of recycled water quality and elucidating their relative influence on a given disease outcome. The important contribution to Bayesian net methodology is that all model predictions, whether risk or relative risk estimates, are expressed as credible intervals.

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We present a novel approach for developing summary statistics for use in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithms by using indirect inference. ABC methods are useful for posterior inference in the presence of an intractable likelihood function. In the indirect inference approach to ABC the parameters of an auxiliary model fitted to the data become the summary statistics. Although applicable to any ABC technique, we embed this approach within a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that is completely adaptive and requires very little tuning. This methodological development was motivated by an application involving data on macroparasite population evolution modelled by a trivariate stochastic process for which there is no tractable likelihood function. The auxiliary model here is based on a beta–binomial distribution. The main objective of the analysis is to determine which parameters of the stochastic model are estimable from the observed data on mature parasite worms.

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Optimal scheduling of voltage regulators (VRs), fixed and switched capacitors and voltage on customer side of transformer (VCT) along with the optimal allocaton of VRs and capacitors are performed using a hybrid optimisation method based on discrete particle swarm optimisation and genetic algorithm. Direct optimisation of the tap position is not appropriate since in general the high voltage (HV) side voltage is not known. Therefore, the tap setting can be determined give the optimal VCT once the HV side voltage is known. The objective function is composed of the distribution line loss cost, the peak power loss cost and capacitors' and VRs' capital, operation and maintenance costs. The constraints are limits on bus voltage and feeder current along with VR taps. The bus voltage should be maintained within the standard level and the feeder current should not exceed the feeder-rated current. The taps are to adjust the output voltage of VRs between 90 and 110% of their input voltages. For validation of the proposed method, the 18-bus IEEE system is used. The results are compared with prior publications to illustrate the benefit of the employed technique. The results also show that the lowest cost planning for voltage profile will be achieved if a combination of capacitors, VRs and VCTs is considered.

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Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.