A Global Trend towards Democratic Convergence? A Lijphartian Analysis of Advanced Democracies.

The article offers a systematic analysis of the comparative trajectory of international democratic change. In particular, it focuses on the resulting convergence or divergence of political systems, borrowing from the literatures on institutional change and policy convergence. To this end, political-institutional data in line with Arend Lijphart’s (1999, 2012) empirical theory of democracy for 24 developed democracies between 1945 and 2010 are analyzed. Heteroscedastic multilevel models allow for directly modeling the development of the variance of types of democracy over time, revealing information about convergence, and adding substantial explanations. The findings indicate that there has been a trend away from extreme types of democracy in single cases, but no unconditional trend of convergence can be observed. However, there are conditional processes of convergence. In particular, economic globalization and the domestic veto structure interactively influence democratic convergence.

Remarks on the convergence of pseudospectra

We establish the convergence of pseudospectra in Hausdorff distance for closed operators acting in different Hilbert spaces and converging in the generalised norm resolvent sense. As an assumption, we exclude the case that the limiting operator has constant resolvent norm on an open set. We extend the class of operators for which it is known that the latter cannot happen by showing that if the resolvent norm is constant on an open set, then this constant is the global minimum. We present a number of examples exhibiting various resolvent norm behaviours and illustrating the applicability of this characterisation compared to known results.

Quick divergence but slow convergence during ecotype formation in lake and stream stickleback pairs of variable age

When genetic constraints restrict phenotypic evolution, diversification can be predicted to evolve along so-called lines of least resistance. To address the importance of such constraints and their resolution, studies of parallel phenotypic divergence that differ in their age are valuable. Here, we investigate the parapatric evolution of six lake and stream threespine stickleback systems from Iceland and Switzerland, ranging in age from a few decades to several millennia. Using phenotypic data, we test for parallelism in ecotypic divergence between parapatric lake and stream populations and compare the observed patterns to an ancestral-like marine population. We find strong and consistent phenotypic divergence, both among lake and stream populations and between our freshwater populations and the marine population. Interestingly, ecotypic divergence in low-dimensional phenotype space (i.e. single traits) is rapid and seems to be often completed within 100 years. Yet, the dimensionality of ecotypic divergence was highest in our oldest systems and only there parallel evolution of unrelated ecotypes was strong enough to overwrite phylogenetic contingency. Moreover, the dimensionality of divergence in different systems varies between trait complexes, suggesting different constraints and evolutionary pathways to their resolution among freshwater systems.

Topology of the ambient boundary and the convergence of causal curves

We discuss the topological nature of the boundary spacetime, the conformal infinity of the ambient cosmological metric. Due to the existence of a homothetic group, the bounding spacetime must be equipped not with the usual Euclidean metric topology but with the Zeeman fine topology. This then places severe constraints to the convergence of a sequence of causal curves and the extraction of a limit curve, and also to our ability to formulate conditions for singularity formation.

The Almost Person: Myth, Narrative and The Doctor

Paul Ricœur describes selfhood as the product of a communal narrative. Communal narratives structured as symbolic myths provide a narrative identity and an ethic of selfhood. The psychologist Jerome Bruner, for instance, places the source of such a narrative identity in the family, where ‘canonical stories’ are formed. ‘Home’ becomes a mode of discourse, a way of recognizing ourselves in the narratives given to us by others. This paper will draw on these concepts of narrative identity in order to investigate the problems to selfhood which face the character of The Doctor in the BBC series Doctor Who. I will identify The Doctor as a character who acts within a self-constructed narrative vacuum, reading the character by contrasting two types of personal myth-making, one ‘real’, as in a lived narrative, and one ‘counterfeit’; a conjured myth to replace and obscure the lived self. The paper will pay particular attention to the twenty-first century reincarnations of Doctor Who. I will argue that the writing of Russell T. Davis and later Steven Moffat in particular directly address this tension of myth and selfhood, as The Doctor struggles between his self-imposed role as a modern Prometheus and the insistent haunting and return of his own story. In these incarnations, his companions become mirrors to The Doctor, bringing with them their own narrative and ethical identities. In turn, it is through his companions that The Doctor is able to build his own lived narrative of sorts, which challenges his self-created ‘mythology’. In contrast to the weeping angels, whose horrific agency manifests only when not apprehended, the Doctor’s story continues to become more real the more he is ‘perceived’, both by the human race and by the viewer.

Estimating whole-lake fish catch per unit effort

The European standard for gillnetsampling to characterize lake fish communities stratifies sampling effort (i.e., number of nets) within depth strata. Nets to sample benthic habitats are randomly distributed throughout the lake within each depth strata. Pelagic nets are also stratified by depth, but are set only at the deepest point of the lake. Multiple authors have suggested that this design under-represents pelagic habitats, resulting in estimates of whole-lake CPUE and community composition which are disproportionately influenced by ecological conditions of littoral and benthic habitats. To address this issue, researchers have proposed estimating whole-lake CPUE by weighting the catch rate in each depth-compartment by the proportion of the volume of the lake contributed by the compartment. Our study aimed to assess the effectiveness of volume-weighting by applying it to fish communities sampled according to the European standard (CEN), and by a second whole-lake gillnetting protocol (VERT), which prescribes additional fishing effort in pelagic habitats. We assume that convergence between the protocols indicates that volume-weighting provides a more accurate estimate of whole-lake catch rate and community composition. Our results indicate that volume-weighting improves agreement between the protocols for whole-lake total CPUE, estimated proportion of perch and roach and the overall fish community composition. Discrepancies between the protocols remaining after volume-weighting maybe because sampling under the CEN protocol overlooks horizontal variation in pelagic fish communities. Analyses based on multiple pelagic-set VERT nets identified gradients in the density and biomass of pelagic fish communities in almost half the lakes that corresponded with the depth of water at net-setting location and distance along the length of a lake. Additional CEN pelagic sampling effort allocated across water depths and distributed throughout the lake would therefore help to reconcile differences between the sampling protocols and, in combination with volume-weighting, converge on a more accurate estimate of whole-lake fish communities.

The DESCARTES-Nantes survey of kidney transplant recipients displaying clinical operational tolerance identifies 35 new tolerant patients and 34 almost tolerant patients.

BACKGROUND Kidney recipients maintaining a prolonged allograft survival in the absence of immunosuppressive drugs and without evidence of rejection are supposed to be exceptional. The ERA-EDTA-DESCARTES working group together with Nantes University launched a European-wide survey to identify new patients, describe them and estimate their frequency for the first time. METHODS Seventeen coordinators distributed a questionnaire in 256 transplant centres and 28 countries in order to report as many 'operationally tolerant' patients (TOL; defined as having a serum creatinine <1.7 mg/dL and proteinuria <1 g/day or g/g creatinine despite at least 1 year without any immunosuppressive drug) and 'almost tolerant' patients (minimally immunosuppressed patients (MIS) receiving low-dose steroids) as possible. We reported their number and the total number of kidney transplants performed at each centre to calculate their frequency. RESULTS One hundred and forty-seven questionnaires were returned and we identified 66 TOL (61 with complete data) and 34 MIS patients. Of the 61 TOL patients, 26 were previously described by the Nantes group and 35 new patients are presented here. Most of them were noncompliant patients. At data collection, 31/35 patients were alive and 22/31 still TOL. For the remaining 9/31, 2 were restarted on immunosuppressive drugs and 7 had rising creatinine of whom 3 resumed dialysis. Considering all patients, 10-year death-censored graft survival post-immunosuppression weaning reached 85% in TOL patients and 100% in MIS patients. With 218 913 kidney recipients surveyed, cumulative incidences of operational tolerance and almost tolerance were estimated at 3 and 1.5 per 10 000 kidney recipients, respectively. CONCLUSIONS In kidney transplantation, operational tolerance and almost tolerance are infrequent findings associated with excellent long-term death-censored graft survival.

SOP: Parallel surrogate global optimization with Pareto center selection for computationally expensive single objective problems

This paper presents a parallel surrogate-based global optimization method for computationally expensive objective functions that is more effective for larger numbers of processors. To reach this goal, we integrated concepts from multi-objective optimization and tabu search into, single objective, surrogate optimization. Our proposed derivative-free algorithm, called SOP, uses non-dominated sorting of points for which the expensive function has been previously evaluated. The two objectives are the expensive function value of the point and the minimum distance of the point to previously evaluated points. Based on the results of non-dominated sorting, P points from the sorted fronts are selected as centers from which many candidate points are generated by random perturbations. Based on surrogate approximation, the best candidate point is subsequently selected for expensive evaluation for each of the P centers, with simultaneous computation on P processors. Centers that previously did not generate good solutions are tabu with a given tenure. We show almost sure convergence of this algorithm under some conditions. The performance of SOP is compared with two RBF based methods. The test results show that SOP is an efficient method that can reduce time required to find a good near optimal solution. In a number of cases the efficiency of SOP is so good that SOP with 8 processors found an accurate answer in less wall-clock time than the other algorithms did with 32 processors.

Emergence of acquired HIV-1 drug resistance has almost been stopped in Switzerland - a 15 year prospective cohort analysis

BACKGROUND  Drug resistance is a major barrier to successful antiretroviral treatment (ART). Therefore, it is important to monitor time trends at a population level. METHODS  We included 11,084 ART-experienced patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) between 1999 and 2013. The SHCS is highly representative and includes 72% of patients receiving ART in Switzerland. Drug resistance was defined as the presence of at least one major mutation in a genotypic resistance test. To estimate the prevalence of drug resistance, data for patients with no resistance test was imputed based on patient's risk of harboring drug resistant viruses. RESULTS  The emergence of new drug resistance mutations declined dramatically from 401 to 23 patients between 1999 and 2013. The upper estimated prevalence limit of drug resistance among ART-experienced patients decreased from 57.0% in 1999 to 37.1% in 2013. The prevalence of three-class resistance decreased from 9.0% to 4.4% and was always <0.4% for patients who initiated ART after 2006. Most patients actively participating in the SHCS in 2013 with drug resistant viruses initiated ART before 1999 (59.8%). Nevertheless, in 2013, 94.5% of patients who initiated ART before 1999 had good remaining treatment options based on Stanford algorithm. CONCLUSION  HIV-1 drug resistance among ART-experienced patients in Switzerland is a well-controlled relic from the pre-combination ART era. Emergence of drug resistance can be virtually stopped with new potent therapies and close monitoring.

Diatom abundance in middle-to-late Pleistocene sediments of IODP Site 303-U1304

We examined diatom assemblages in a series of remarkable laminated diatomaceous ooze (LDO) horizons in the marine sediments from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1304 to reconstruct the middle-to-late Pleistocene paleoceanographic evolution of the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Four confirmed diatom biohorizons combined with calcareous nannofossil and paleomagnetic stratigraphies established the chronological framework for the material. The planktonic, araphid, needle-like species Thalassiothrix longissima was the greatest contributor to the LDO facies. From the results of a principal component analysis using the percent abundances of 65 significant (p = 5%) diatom taxa, except for Tx. longissima, which was extremely dominant in almost all horizons observed, we identified two principal component (PC) axes. Taxa probably associated with the stratigraphic distribution of the major zonal marker Neodenticula seminae (ranging from 1.26 to 0.84 Ma in this ocean) loaded on PC1 with a high value. PC2 was related to the ocean surface temperature. The stratigraphic variability of the PC2 score indicated that switching between warm- and cold-water assemblages occurred concurrently with LDO deposition (or extreme Tx. longissima dominance) episodes in several horizons (particularly after 0.84 Ma), suggesting that the Subarctic Convergence (SAC) oceanic front passed over Site U1304 during Pleistocene glacial/interglacial cycles. Our floral evidence supports the model of nearly monospecific LDO formation caused by the enhanced physical accumulation of particular diatoms such as Tx. longissima. On the other hand, Nd. seminae, which probably contributes to spring phytoplankton blooms in the modern ocean, was present only between 1.26 and 0.84 Ma in this area. Thus, we infer that the main contributor of export flux in the regional annual primary production cycle would have shifted drastically from one of a spring phytoplankton bloom leader (Nd. seminae) to minor but mass dump assemblages (Tx. longissima etc.) in the mid-Pleistocene.

Planimetric ice-flow convergence and flow-orthonormal strain rate across the Antarctic Ice Sheet, with links to model result files

Fast-flowing ice streams discharge most of the ice from the interior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet coastward. Understanding how their tributary organisation is governed and evolves is essential for developing reliable models of the ice sheet's response to climate change. Despite much research on ice-stream mechanics, this problem is unsolved, because the complexity of flow within and across the tributary networks has hardly been interrogated. Here I present the first map of planimetric flow convergence across the ice sheet, calculated from satellite measurements of ice surface velocity, and use it to explore this complexity. The convergence map of Antarctica elucidates how ice-stream tributaries draw ice from the interior. It also reveals curvilinear zones of convergence along lateral shear margins of streaming, and abundant convergence ripples associated with nonlinear ice rheology and changes in bed topography and friction. Flow convergence on ice-stream tributaries and their feeding zones is markedly uneven, and interspersed with divergence at distances of the order of kilometres. For individual drainage basins as well as the ice sheet as a whole, the range of convergence and divergence decreases systematically with flow speed, implying that fast flow cannot converge or diverge as much as slow flow. I therefore deduce that flow in ice-stream networks is subject to mechanical regulation that limits flow-orthonormal strain rates. These properties and the gridded data of convergence and flow-orthonormal strain rate in this archive provide targets for ice- sheet simulations and motivate more research into the origin and dynamics of tributarization.