Some vocabulary and grammar for the analysis of multi-environment trials, as applied to the analysis of FPB and PPB trials

For the improvement of genetic material suitable for on farm use under low-input conditions, participatory and formal plant breeding strategies are frequently presented as competing options. A common frame of reference to phrase mechanisms and purposes related to breeding strategies will facilitate clearer descriptions of similarities and differences between participatory plant breeding and formal plant breeding. In this paper an attempt is made to develop such a common framework by means of a statistically inspired language that acknowledges the importance of both on farm trials and research centre trials as sources of information for on farm genetic improvement. Key concepts are the genetic correlation between environments, and the heterogeneity of phenotypic and genetic variance over environments. Classic selection response theory is taken as the starting point for the comparison of selection trials (on farm and research centre) with respect to the expected genetic improvement in a target environment (low-input farms). The variance-covariance parameters that form the input for selection response comparisons traditionally come from a mixed model fit to multi-environment trial data. In this paper we propose a recently developed class of mixed models, namely multiplicative mixed models, also called factor-analytic models, for modelling genetic variances and covariances (correlations). Mixed multiplicative models allow genetic variances and covariances to be dependent on quantitative descriptors of the environment, and confer a high flexibility in the choice of variance-covariance structure, without requiring the estimation of a prohibitively high number of parameters. As a result detailed considerations regarding selection response comparisons are facilitated. ne statistical machinery involved is illustrated on an example data set consisting of barley trials from the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA). Analysis of the example data showed that participatory plant breeding and formal plant breeding are better interpreted as providing complementary rather than competing information.

Traffic and residue cover effects on infiltration

Wheel traffic can lead to compaction and degradation of soil physical properties. This study, as part of a study of controlled traffic farming, assessed the impact of compaction from wheel traffic on soil that had not been trafficked for 5 years. A tractor of 40 kN rear axle weight was used to apply traffic at varying wheelslip on a clay soil with varying residue cover to simulate effects of traffic typical of grain production operations in the northern Australian grain belt. A rainfall simulator was used to determine infiltration characteristics. Wheel traffic significantly reduced time to ponding, steady infiltration rate, and total infiltration compared with non-wheeled soil, with or without residue cover. Non-wheeled soil had 4-5 times greater steady infiltration rate than wheeled soil, irrespective of residue cover. Wheelslip greater than 10% further reduced steady infiltration rate and total infiltration compared with that measured for self-propulsion wheeling (3% wheelslip) under residue-protected conditions. Where there was no compaction from wheel traffic, residue cover had a greater effect on infiltration capacity, with steady infiltration rate increasing proportionally with residue cover (R-2 = 0.98). Residue cover, however, had much less effect on infiltration when wheeling was imposed. These results demonstrated that the infiltration rate for the non-wheeled soil under a controlled traffic zero-till system was similar to that of virgin soil. However, when the soil was wheeled by a medium tractor wheel, infiltration rate was reduced to that of long-term cropped soil. These results suggest that wheel traffic, rather than tillage and cropping, might be the major factor governing infiltration. The exclusion of wheel traffic under a controlled traffic farming system, combined with conservation tillage, provides a way to enhance the sustainability of cropping this soil for improved infiltration, increased plant-available water, and reduced runoff-driven soil erosion.

Why farmers continue to use pesticides despite environmental, health and sustainability costs

Use of chemical inputs such as pesticides has increased agricultural production and productivity. However, negative externalities from such use have increased too. These externalities include damage to agricultural land, fisheries, fauna and flora. Another major externality is the unintentional destruction of beneficial predators of pests thereby increasing the virulence of many species of agricultural pests. Furthermore, increased mortality and morbidity of humans due to exposure to pesticides are recorded especially in developing countries. The costs from these externalities are large and affect farmers' returns. However, despite these high costs, farmers continue to use pesticides and in most countries in increasing quantities. In this paper, we examine this paradox and show why farmers continue to use pesticides despite the increasing costs. We also emphasize 'lock-in' aspects of pesticide use. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A heated air quarantine disinfestation treatment against Queensland fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) for tomatoes

A circulated heated-air treatment at 92% RH to achieve and maintain a minimum fruit core temperature of 44°C for 2 h is shown to disinfest tomatoes against Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) for market access quarantine purposes. The efficacy of the treatment exceeded 99.99%, tested at the 95% confidence level. An estimated 78 439 eggs were used for large-scale trials, as the stage of the pest most tolerant of heat at the treatment temperature.

Asian elephants as agricultural pests: Economics of control and compensation in Sri Lanka

Despite growing attention to crop and property damage caused by the Asian elephant, uncertainty exists about the magnitude of this problem. This article explores the nature and, Magnitude of this problem in Sri Lanka. An economic analysis of individual farmers'. decisions to control elephants is provided. Government policies to assist farmers in coping with the elephant pest problem are assessed. Appropriate compensation schemes for farmers are seen as potentially more effective for conserving elephants in Sri Lanka than legal prohibitions on the killing of elephants. The issues raised here have wider relevance than merely to Sri Lanka or Asian elephants.

Testing insect movement theory: empirical analysis of pest data routinely collected from agricultural crops

Observations of an insect's movement lead to theory on the insect's flight behaviour and the role of movement in the species' population dynamics. This theory leads to predictions of the way the population changes in time under different conditions. If a hypothesis on movement predicts a specific change in the population, then the hypothesis can be tested against observations of population change. Routine pest monitoring of agricultural crops provides a convenient source of data for studying movement into a region and among fields within a region. Examples of the use of statistical and computational methods for testing hypotheses with such data are presented. The types of questions that can be addressed with these methods and the limitations of pest monitoring data when used for this purpose are discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Global trade in GM food and the cartagena protocol on biosafety: Consequences for China

The UN Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety adopted in Montreal, 29 January, 2000 and opened for signature in Nairobi, 15-26 May, 2000 will exert a profound effect on international trade in genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and their products. In this paper, the potential effects of various articles of the Protocol on international trade in GMOs are analyzed. Based on the present status of imports of GMOs and domestic research and development of biotechnology in China, likely trends in imports of foreign GM food and related products after China accedes to WTO is explored. Also, China's potential countermeasures to control and regulate imports of GMOs in line with implementation of the Protocol are discussed. China, in recent times, has increased its food and agricultural imports substantially from USA and Canada. China imported soybean 10.42 mill. tons in 2000 and about 15 mill tons in 2001, of which majority are from USA where GM soybean accounts for 60%. The plantation of US Monsanto's transgenic Bt cotton was increased to more than 1 million ha in China in 2001. Though China has paid great attention to develop biotechnology, it appears to have little scope to export GMOs and GM products. So China may consider a range of administrative measures to implement the Cartagena Protocol and to regulate its import of GMOs and GM agricultural products. Consequently, the Regulation on Safety of Agri-GMOs was issued on June, 2001 and followed three detailed rules issued in Jan. of 2002, with a priority to limit foreign GMOs importing by safety certification and labeling system. These were outlined taking into account policies adopted in Western countries such as green barriers to international trade.

Mechanisms and diversity of resistance to sorghum midge, Stenodiplosis sorghicola in Sorghum bicolor

Sorghum midge, Stenodiplosis sorghicola (Coquillett) is the most important pest of grain sorghum worldwide, and plant resistance is an important component for the control of this pest. To identify sorghum genotypes with diverse mechanisms of resistance to sorghum midge, we studied oviposition, larval survival, and midge damage in 27 sorghum midge-resistant genotypes, and a susceptible check under greenhouse conditions. Observations were also recorded on floral characteristics and compensation in grain mass. Of the 28 sorghum genotypes tested, 19 showed high levels of antixenosis to oviposition as a component of resistance, and had

Adoption and maintenance of contour bunds and hedgerows in a dynamic environment - Experience in the Philippine uplands

The widespread adoption of soil conservation technologies by farmers (notably contour hedgerows) observed in Guba, Cebu City, Philippines, is not often observed elsewhere In the country. Adoption of these technologies was because of the interaction of such phenomena as site-specific factors, appropriate extension systems, and technologies. However, lack of hedgerow maintenance, decreasing hedgerow quality, and disappearance of hedgerows raised concerns about sustainability. The dynamic nature of upland farming systems suggests the need for a location-specific farming system development framework, which provides farmers with ongoing extension for continual promotion of appropriate conservation practices.