Return distribution predictability and its implications for portfolio selection

The inquiries to return predictability are traditionally limited to conditional mean, while literature on portfolio selection is replete with moment-based analysis with up to the fourth moment being considered. This paper develops a distribution-based framework for both return prediction and portfolio selection. More specifically, a time-varying return distribution is modeled through quantile regressions and copulas, using quantile regressions to extract information in marginal distributions and copulas to capture dependence structure. A preference function which captures higher moments is proposed for portfolio selection. An empirical application highlights the additional information provided by the distributional approach which cannot be captured by the traditional moment-based methods.

Justifiability of littering : an empirical investigation

This paper investigates the relationship between voluntary participation in environmental organisations and the justifiability of littering behaviour. Previous empirical work regarding determinants of littering and littering behaviour remains scarce, particularly in socio-economic analysis. We address these deficiencies, demonstrating a strong empirical link between environmental participation and reduced public littering in the European Values Survey (EVS) data for 30 Western and Eastern European countries. The results suggest that membership in environmental organisations is related to a stronger commitment to anti-littering behaviour, thereby supporting improved environmental quality.

The relationship between firm survival and innovation : an introduction to the literature

The rapid growth in use of the Internet as a business tool provides a new perspective in the study of the organizational challenges of new technologies. The innovation literature has grown vastly since its establishment in the 1920s, covering a broad range of disciplines (Foxall 1984) and measures a wide variety of variables (Rogers 1995). At first glance, studies that look at the relationship between innovation and firm survival appear contradictory. However, the results appear compatible when additional factors, such as industry type, organizational age, company size or the duration of the study are taken into account.

Evaluation of implementation of a healthy food and drink supply strategy throughout the whole school environment in Queensland state schools, Australia

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: This paper reports on the evaluation of the Smart Choices healthy food and drink supply strategy for Queensland schools (Smart Choices) implementation across the whole school environment in state government primary and secondary schools in Queensland, Australia. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Three concurrent surveys using different methods for each group of stakeholders that targeted all 1275 school Principals, all 1258 Parent and Citizens’ Associations (P&Cs) and a random sample of 526 tuckshop convenors throughout Queensland. Nine hundred and seventy-three Principals, 598 P&Cs and 513 tuckshop convenors participated with response rates of 78%, 48% and 98%, respectively. RESULTS: Nearly all Principals (97%), P&Cs (99%) and tuckshop convenors (97%) reported that their school tuckshop had implemented Smart Choices. The majority of Principals and P&Cs reported implementation, respectively, in: school breakfast programs (98 and 92%); vending machine stock (94 and 83%); vending machine advertising (85 and 84%); school events (87 and 88%); school sporting events (81 and 80%); sponsorship and advertising (93 and 84%); fundraising events (80 and 84%); and sporting clubs (73 and 75%). Implementation in curriculum activities, classroom rewards and class parties was reported, respectively, by 97%, 86% and 75% of Principals. Respondents also reported very high levels of understanding of Smart Choices and engagement of the school community. CONCLUSIONS: The results demonstrated that food supply interventions to promote nutrition across all domains of the school environment can be implemented successfully.

Misrepresentation

Elements, types, rescission, exclusion clauses and impact of legislation

Evaluation of "Eat Well Queensland"

Eat Well Queensland 2002-2012: Smart Eating for a Healthier State (EWQ) was developed by the Queensland Public Health Forum in 2002 as a 10-year strategy to improve the health of Queenslanders through better food and nutrition. This study aimed to evaluate the implementation of EWQ and identify future strategic action required. Queensland Health funded a mid-point review of EWQ in 2008, to identify achievements, gaps, barriers and emerging issues associated with EWQ. 31 key stakeholders were interviewed, 83 stakeholders responded to an online survey, 150 stakeholders attended a state-wide practitioner workshop and 209 EWQ-related project reports were assessed.

A note on a reaction-diffusion model describing the bone morphogen protein gradient in Drosophila embryonic patterning

In this article, we consider the Eldar model [3] from embryology in which a bone morphogenic protein, a short gastrulation protein, and their compound react and diffuse. We carry out a perturbation analysis in the limit of small diffusivity of the bone morphogenic protein. This analysis establishes conditions under which some elementary results of [3] are valid.

Post-discharge surveillance : can patients reliably diagnose surgical wound infections?

Post-discharge surgical wound infection surveillance is an important part of many infection control programs. It is frequently undertaken by patient self-assessment, prompted either by a telephone or postal questionnaire. To assess the reliability of this method, 290 patients were followed for six weeks postoperatively. Their wounds were photographed and also covertly assessed for signs of infection by two experienced infection control nurses (ICNs). Patients also responded to a postal questionnaire seeking evidence of infection at both week four and week six post-surgery. Correlation between the patient's assessment of their wound and the ICNs diagnosis was poor (r=0.37) with a low positive predictive value (28.7%), although negative predictive value was high (98.2%). Assessment of photos for signs of infection by two experienced clinicians also correlated poorly with the ICNs diagnosis of infection (r=0.54). The patient's recall of prescription of an antibiotic by their general practitioner (GP) for wound infection during the postoperative period correlated best with the ICNs diagnosis (r=0.76). This latter measure, particularly when confirmed by the GP in those patients reporting an infection, appears to provide the most valid and resource efficient marker of post-discharge surgical wound infection.

Spatial mapping of city-wide PBDE levels using an exponential decay model

Passive air samplers (PAS) consisting of polyurethane foam (PUF) disks were deployed at 6 outdoor air monitoring stations in different land use categories (commercial, industrial, residential and semi-rural) to assess the spatial distribution of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in the Brisbane airshed. Air monitoring sites covered an area of 1143 km2 and PAS were allowed to accumulate PBDEs in the city's airshed over three consecutive seasons commencing in the winter of 2008. The average sum of five (∑5) PBDEs (BDEs 28, 47, 99, 100 and 209) levels were highest at the commercial and industrial sites (12.7 ± 5.2 ng PUF−1), which were relatively close to the city center and were a factor of 8 times higher than residential and semi-rural sites located in outer Brisbane. To estimate the magnitude of the urban ‘plume’ an empirical exponential decay model was used to fit PAS data vs. distance from the CBD, with the best correlation observed when the particulate bound BDE-209 was not included (∑5-209) (r2 = 0.99), rather than ∑5 (r2 = 0.84). At 95% confidence intervals the model predicts that regardless of site characterization, ∑5-209 concentrations in a PAS sample taken between 4–10 km from the city centre would be half that from a sample taken from the city centre and reach a baseline or plateau (0.6 to 1.3 ng PUF−1), approximately 30 km from the CBD. The observed exponential decay in ∑5-209 levels over distance corresponded with Brisbane's decreasing population density (persons/km2) from the city center. The residual error associated with the model increased significantly when including BDE-209 levels, primarily due to the highest level (11.4 ± 1.8 ng PUF−1) being consistently detected at the industrial site, indicating a potential primary source at this site. Active air samples collected alongside the PAS at the industrial air monitoring site (B) indicated BDE-209 dominated congener composition and was entirely associated with the particulate phase. This study demonstrates that PAS are effective tools for monitoring citywide regional differences however, interpretation of spatial trends for POPs which are predominantly associated with the particulate phase such as BDE-209, may be restricted to identifying ‘hotspots’ rather than broad spatial trends.

Utility of the Mild Brain Injury Atypical Symptoms Scale to detect symptom exaggeration : an analogue simulation study

Brief self-report symptom checklists are often used to screen for postconcussional disorder (PCD) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and are highly susceptible to symptom exaggeration. This study examined the utility of the five-item Mild Brain Injury Atypical Symptoms Scale (mBIAS) designed for use with the Neurobehavioral Symptom Inventory (NSI) and the PTSD Checklist–Civilian (PCL–C). Participants were 85 Australian undergraduate students who completed a battery of self-report measures under one of three experimental conditions: control (i.e., honest responding, n = 24), feign PCD (n = 29), and feign PTSD (n = 32). Measures were the mBIAS, NSI, PCL–C, Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory–2, Restructured Form (MMPI–2–RF), and the Structured Inventory of Malingered Symptomatology (SIMS). Participants instructed to feign PTSD and PCD had significantly higher scores on the mBIAS, NSI, PCL–C, and MMPI–2–RF than did controls. Few differences were found between the feign PCD and feign PTSD groups, with the exception of scores on the NSI (feign PCD > feign PTSD) and PCL–C (feign PTSD > feign PCD). Optimal cutoff scores on the mBIAS of ≥8 and ≥6 were found to reflect “probable exaggeration” (sensitivity = .34; specificity = 1.0; positive predictive power, PPP = 1.0; negative predictive power, NPP = .74) and “possible exaggeration” (sensitivity = .72; specificity = .88; PPP = .76; NPP = .85), respectively. Findings provide preliminary support for the use of the mBIAS as a tool to detect symptom exaggeration when administering the NSI and PCL–C.

Leadership change, policy issues and voter defection in the 2010 Australian election

Leadership change formed the backdrop to the 2010 Australian federal election, with the replacement of Kevin Rudd as prime minister by Julia Gillard, the country’s first female prime minister. This article uses the 2010 Australian Election Study, a post-election survey of voters, to examine patterns of voter defection between the 2007 and 2010 elections. The results show that the predominant influence on defection was how voters rated the leaders. Julia Gillard was particularly popular among female voters and her overall impact on the vote was slightly greater than that of Tony Abbott. Policy issues were second in importance after leadership, particularly for those moving from the Coalition to Labor, who were concerned about health and unemployment. Labor defectors to the Greens particularly disliked Labor’s education policies. Overall, the results point to the enduring importance of leaders as the predominant influence on how voters cast their ballot.

Climate of fear in organisational settings : construct definition, measurement and a test of theory

This paper reports a study that explored a new construct: ‘climate of fear’. We hypothesised that climate of fear would vary across work sites within organisations, but not across organisations. This is in contrast a to measures of organisational culture, which were expected to vary both within and across organisations. To test our hypotheses, we developed a new 13-item measure of perceived fear in organisations and tested it in 20 sites across two organisations (N ≡ 209). Culture variables measured were innovative leadership culture, and communication culture. Results were that climate of fear did vary across sites in both organisations, while differences across organisations were not significant, as we anticipated. Organisational culture, however, varied between the organisations, and within one of the organisations. The climate of fear scale exhibited acceptable psychometric properties

Alternatives to the World Bank’s strategies for education and development

Over the past several decades, policy has become increasingly global. In economics, for example, policy has followed the so-called Washington Consensus of privatization, liberalization, and deregulation. In education, global policy has included the proliferation of strategies including standardized testing, paraprofessional teachers, user fees, and privatization. There are many problems with these neoliberal policies. Foremost among them, is the havoc they wreak on the lives of so many children and adults. Poverty, inequality, and myriad associated problems have reached new heights in this neoliberal era. Moreover, these policies have been adopted uncritically and alternative policies have been ignored, which leads to our focus here.

Improving the usability of standard schemas

Due to the development of XML and other data models such as OWL and RDF, sharing data is an increasingly common task since these data models allow simple syntactic translation of data between applications. However, in order for data to be shared semantically, there must be a way to ensure that concepts are the same. One approach is to employ commonly usedschemas—called standard schemas —which help guarantee that syntactically identical objects have semantically similar meanings. As a result of the spread of data sharing, there has been widespread adoption of standard schemas in a broad range of disciplines and for a wide variety of applications within a very short period of time. However, standard schemas are still in their infancy and have not yet matured or been thoroughly evaluated. It is imperative that the data management research community takes a closer look at how well these standard schemas have fared in real-world applications to identify not only their advantages, but also the operational challenges that real users face. In this paper, we both examine the usability of standard schemas in a comparison that spans multiple disciplines, and describe our first step at resolving some of these issues in our Semantic Modeling System. We evaluate our Semantic Modeling System through a careful case study of the use of standard schemas in architecture, engineering, and construction, which we conducted with domain experts. We discuss how our Semantic Modeling System can help the broader problem and also discuss a number of challenges that still remain.

Physical characteristics of the indoor environment that affect health and wellbeing in healthcare facilities : a review

Understanding the physical characteristics of the indoor environment that affect human health and wellbeing is the key requirement underpinning the beneficial design of a healthcare facility (HCF). We reviewed and summarised physical factors of the indoor environment reported to affect human health and wellbeing in HCFs. Research materials included articles identified in a Pubmed search, guidelines, books, reports and monographs, as well as the bibliographies of review articles in the area studied. Of these, 209 publications were selected for this review. According to the literature, there is evidence that the following physical factors of the indoor environment affect the health and wellbeing of human beings in an HCF: safety, ventilation and HVAC systems, thermal environment, acoustic environment, interior layout and room type, windows (including daylight and views), nature and gardens, lighting, colour, floor covering, furniture and its placement, ergonomics, wayfinding, artworks and music. Some of these, in themselves, directly promote or hinder health and wellbeing, but the physical factors may also have numerous indirect impacts by influencing the behaviour, actions, and interactions of patients, their families and the staff members. The findings of this research enable a good understanding of the different physical factors of the indoor environment on health and wellbeing and provide a practical resource for those responsible for the design and operate the facilities as well as researchers investigating these factors. However, more studies are needed in order to inform the design of optimally beneficial indoor environments in HCFs for all user groups.