Parameter estimation using a particle method: inferring mixing coefficients from sea level observations

This paper presents a first attempt to estimate mixing parameters from sea level observations using a particle method based on importance sampling. The method is applied to an ensemble of 128 members of model simulations with a global ocean general circulation model of high complexity. Idealized twin experiments demonstrate that the method is able to accurately reconstruct mixing parameters from an observed mean sea level field when mixing is assumed to be spatially homogeneous. An experiment with inhomogeneous eddy coefficients fails because of the limited ensemble size. This is overcome by the introduction of local weighting, which is able to capture spatial variations in mixing qualitatively. As the sensitivity of sea level for variations in mixing is higher for low values of mixing coefficients, the method works relatively well in regions of low eddy activity.

A variational method for the calculation of spin-rovibronic energy levels of any triatomic molecule in an electronic triplet state

The triatomic spin-rovibronic variational code RVIB3 has been extended to include the effect of two uncoupled electrons, for both (3)Sigma(-) and (3)Pi (Renner-Teller) electronic states. The spin-orbital-rotational kinetic energy is included in the usual way, via terms (J+L+S). The phenomenological terms AL.S and lambda 2/3(3S(z)(2)) are introduced to reproduce the 3 spin-orbit and spin-spin splittings, respectively. Calculations are performed to evaluate the spin-rovibronic energy levels of CCO (X) over tilde (3) Sigma(-) and CCO (A) over tilde (3) Pi for which the Born-Oppenheimer potentials are derived from high-accuracy ab initio calculations.

Vibrational energy levels for the electronic ground state of the diazocarbene (CNN) molecule

The vibrational energy levels of diazocarbene (diazomethylene) in its electronic ground state, (X) over tilde (3) Sigma(-) CNN, have been predicted using the variational method. The potential energy surfaces of (X) over tilde (3) A" CNN were determined by employing ab initio single reference coupled cluster with single and double excitations (CCSD), CCSD with perturbative triple excitations [CCSD(T)], multi-reference complete active space self-consistent-field (CASSCF), and internally contracted multi-reference configuration interaction (ICMRCI) methods. The correlation-consistent polarised valence quadruple zeta (cc-pVQZ) basis set was used. Four sets of vibrational energy levels determined from the four distinct analytical potential functions have been compared with the experimental values from the laser-induced fluorescence measurements of Wurfel et al. obtained in 1992. The CCSD, CCSD(T), and CASSCF potentials have not provided satisfactory agreement with the experimental observations. In this light, the importance of both non-dynamic (static) and dynamic correlation effects in describing the ground state of CNN is emphasised. Our best theoretical fundamental frequencies at the cc-pVQZ ICMRCI level of theory, v(1) = 1230, v(2) = 394, and v(3) = 1420 cm(-1) are in excellent agreement with the experimental values of v(1) = 1235, v(2) = 396, and v(3) = 1419cm(-1) and the mean absolute deviation between the 23 calculated and experimental vibrational energy levels is only 7.4 cm(-1). It is shown that the previously suggested observation of the v(3) frequency at about 2847cm(-1) was in fact the first overtone 2v(3).

A theoretical adaptive model of thermal comfort – Adaptive Predicted Mean Vote (aPMV)

This paper presents in detail a theoretical adaptive model of thermal comfort based on the “Black Box” theory, taking into account factors such as culture, climate, social, psychological and behavioural adaptations, which have an impact on the senses used to detect thermal comfort. The model is called the Adaptive Predicted Mean Vote (aPMV) model. The aPMV model explains, by applying the cybernetics concept, the phenomena that the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) is greater than the Actual Mean Vote (AMV) in free-running buildings, which has been revealed by many researchers in field studies. An Adaptive coefficient (λ) representing the adaptive factors that affect the sense of thermal comfort has been proposed. The empirical coefficients in warm and cool conditions for the Chongqing area in China have been derived by applying the least square method to the monitored onsite environmental data and the thermal comfort survey results.

A method for merging flow-dependent forecast error statistics from an ensemble with static statistics for use in high resolution variational data assimilation

The background error covariance matrix, B, is often used in variational data assimilation for numerical weather prediction as a static and hence poor approximation to the fully dynamic forecast error covariance matrix, Pf. In this paper the concept of an Ensemble Reduced Rank Kalman Filter (EnRRKF) is outlined. In the EnRRKF the forecast error statistics in a subspace defined by an ensemble of states forecast by the dynamic model are found. These statistics are merged in a formal way with the static statistics, which apply in the remainder of the space. The combined statistics may then be used in a variational data assimilation setting. It is hoped that the nonlinear error growth of small-scale weather systems will be accurately captured by the EnRRKF, to produce accurate analyses and ultimately improved forecasts of extreme events.

An assessment of a three-beam Doppler lidar wind profiling method for use in urban areas

Currently there are few observations of the urban wind field at heights other than rooftop level. Remote sensing instruments such as Doppler lidars provide wind speed data at many heights, which would be useful in determining wind loadings of tall buildings, and predicting local air quality. Studies comparing remote sensing with traditional anemometers carried out in flat, homogeneous terrain often use scan patterns which take several minutes. In an urban context the flow changes quickly in space and time, so faster scans are required to ensure little change in the flow over the scan period. We compare 3993 h of wind speed data collected using a three-beam Doppler lidar wind profiling method with data from a sonic anemometer (190 m). Both instruments are located in central London, UK; a highly built-up area. Based on wind profile measurements every 2 min, the uncertainty in the hourly mean wind speed due to the sampling frequency is 0.05–0.11 m s−1. The lidar tended to overestimate the wind speed by ≈0.5 m s−1 for wind speeds below 20 m s−1. Accuracy may be improved by increasing the scanning frequency of the lidar. This method is considered suitable for use in urban areas.

A novel ensemble method for retrieving properties of warm cloud in 3-D using ground-based scanning radar and zenith radiances

We present a novel method for retrieving high-resolution, three-dimensional (3-D) nonprecipitating cloud fields in both overcast and broken-cloud situations. The method uses scanning cloud radar and multiwavelength zenith radiances to obtain gridded 3-D liquid water content (LWC) and effective radius (re) and 2-D column mean droplet number concentration (Nd). By using an adaption of the ensemble Kalman filter, radiances are used to constrain the optical properties of the clouds using a forward model that employs full 3-D radiative transfer while also providing full error statistics given the uncertainty in the observations. To evaluate the new method, we first perform retrievals using synthetic measurements from a challenging cumulus cloud field produced by a large-eddy simulation snapshot. Uncertainty due to measurement error in overhead clouds is estimated at 20% in LWC and 6% in re, but the true error can be greater due to uncertainties in the assumed droplet size distribution and radiative transfer. Over the entire domain, LWC and re are retrieved with average error 0.05–0.08 g m-3 and ~2 μm, respectively, depending on the number of radiance channels used. The method is then evaluated using real data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Mobile Facility at the Azores. Two case studies are considered, one stratocumulus and one cumulus. Where available, the liquid water path retrieved directly above the observation site was found to be in good agreement with independent values obtained from microwave radiometer measurements, with an error of 20 g m-2.

Field-aligned plasma flow in the quiet, mid-latitude ionosphere deduced from topside soundings

A method for quantifying diffusive flows of O+ ions in the topside ionosphere from satellite soundings is described. A departure from diffusive equilibrium alters the shape of the plasma scale-height profile near the F2-peak where ion-neutral frictional drag is large. The effect enables the evaluation of , the field-aligned flux of O+ ions relative to the neutral oxygen atom gas, using MSIS model values for the neutral thermospheric densities and temperature. Upward flow values are accurate to within about 10%, the largest sources of error being the MSIS prediction for the concentration of oxygen atoms and the plasma temperature gradient deduced from the sounding. Downward flux values are only determined to within 20%. From 60,000 topside soundings, taken at the minimum and rising phase of the solar cycle, a total of 1098 mean scale-height profiles are identified for which no storm sudden commencement had occurred in the previous 12 days and for which Kp was less than 2o, each mean profile being an average of about six soundings. A statistical study ofdeduced from these profiles shows the diurnal cycle of O+ flow in the quiet, topside ionosphere at mid-latitudes and its seasonal variations. The differences betweenand ion flux observations from incoherent scatter radars are considered using the meridional thermospheric winds predicted by a global, three-dimensional model. The mean interhemispheric flow from summer to winter is compared with predictions by a numerical model of the protonospheric coupling of conjugate ionospheres for up to 6 days following a geomagnetic storm. The observed mean (of order 3 × 1016 ions day−1 along a flux tube of area 1 m2 at 1000 km) is larger than predicted for day 6 and the suggested explanation is a decrease in upward flows from the winter, daytime ionosphere between the sixth and twelfth days.

Organic soils promote the efficacy of entomopathogenic nematodes, with different foraging strategies, in the control of a major forest pest: a meta-analysis of field trial data

The large pine weevil, Hylobius abietis, is a serious pest of reforestation in northern Europe. However, weevils developing in stumps of felled trees can be killed by entomopathogenic nematodes applied to soil around the stumps and this method of control has been used at an operational level in the UK and Ireland. We investigated the factors affecting the efficacy of entomopathogenic nematodes in the control of the large pine weevil spanning 10 years of field experiments, by means of a meta-analysis of published studies and previously unpublished data. We investigated two species with different foraging strategies, the ‘ambusher’ Steinernema carpocapsae, the species most often used at an operational level, and the ‘cruiser’ Heterorhabditis downesi. Efficacy was measured both by percentage reduction in numbers of adults emerging relative to untreated controls and by percentage parasitism of developing weevils in the stump. Both measures were significantly higher with H. downesi compared to S. carpocapsae. General linear models were constructed for each nematode species separately, using substrate type (peat versus mineral soil) and tree species (pine versus spruce) as fixed factors, weevil abundance (from the mean of untreated stumps) as a covariate and percentage reduction or percentage parasitism as the response variable. For both nematode species, the most significant and parsimonious models showed that substrate type was consistently, but not always, the most significant variable, whether replicates were at a site or stump level, and that peaty soils significantly promote the efficacy of both species. Efficacy, in terms of percentage parasitism, was not density dependent.

A method for merging nadir-sounding climate records, with an application to the global-mean stratospheric temperature data sets from SSU and AMSU

A method is proposed for merging different nadir-sounding climate data records using measurements from high-resolution limb sounders to provide a transfer function between the different nadir measurements. The two nadir-sounding records need not be overlapping so long as the limb-sounding record bridges between them. The method is applied to global-mean stratospheric temperatures from the NOAA Climate Data Records based on the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU), extending the SSU record forward in time to yield a continuous data set from 1979 to present, and providing a simple framework for extending the SSU record into the future using AMSU. SSU and AMSU are bridged using temperature measurements from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), which is of high enough vertical resolution to accurately represent the weighting functions of both SSU and AMSU. For this application, a purely statistical approach is not viable since the different nadir channels are not sufficiently linearly independent, statistically speaking. The near-global-mean linear temperature trends for extended SSU for 1980–2012 are −0.63 ± 0.13, −0.71 ± 0.15 and −0.80 ± 0.17 K decade−1 (95 % confidence) for channels 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The extended SSU temperature changes are in good agreement with those from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite, with both exhibiting a cooling trend of ~ 0.6 ± 0.3 K decade−1 in the upper stratosphere from 2004 to 2012. The extended SSU record is found to be in agreement with high-top coupled atmosphere–ocean models over the 1980–2012 period, including the continued cooling over the first decade of the 21st century.

A numerical method for solving the dynamic three-dimensional Ericksen-Leslie equations for nematic liquid crystals subject to a strong magnetic field

A finite difference technique, based on a projection method, is developed for solving the dynamic three-dimensional Ericksen-Leslie equations for nematic liquid crystals subject to a strong magnetic field. The governing equations in this situation are derived using primitive variables and are solved using the ideas behind the GENSMAC methodology (Tome and McKee [32]; Tome et al. [34]). The resulting numerical technique is then validated by comparing the numerical solution against an analytic solution for steady three-dimensional flow between two-parallel plates subject to a strong magnetic field. The validated code is then employed to solve channel flow for which there is no analytic solution. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the generalized eigenvalue method for energies and matrix elements in lattice field theory

We discuss the generalized eigenvalue problem for computing energies and matrix elements in lattice gauge theory, including effective theories such as HQET. It is analyzed how the extracted effective energies and matrix elements converge when the time separations are made large. This suggests a particularly efficient application of the method for which we can prove that corrections vanish asymptotically as exp(-(E(N+1) - E(n))t). The gap E(N+1) - E(n) can be made large by increasing the number N of interpolating fields in the correlation matrix. We also show how excited state matrix elements can be extracted such that contaminations from all other states disappear exponentially in time. As a demonstration we present numerical results for the extraction of ground state and excited B-meson masses and decay constants in static approximation and to order 1/m(b) in HQET.

Two- and three-dimensional shape fabric analysis by the intercept method in grey levels

The count intercept is a robust method for the numerical analysis of fabrics Launeau and Robin (1996). It counts the number of intersections between a set of parallel scan lines and a mineral phase, which must be identified on a digital image. However, the method is only sensitive to boundaries and therefore supposes the user has some knowledge about their significance. The aim of this paper is to show that a proper grey level detection of boundaries along scan lines is sufficient to calculate the two-dimensional anisotropy of grain or crystal distributions without any particular image processing. Populations of grains and crystals usually display elliptical anisotropies in rocks. When confirmed by the intercept analysis, a combination of a minimum of 3 mean length intercept roses, taken on 3 more or less perpendicular sections, allows the calculation of 3-dimensional ellipsoids and the determination of their standard deviation with direction and intensity in 3 dimensions as well. The feasibility of this quick method is attested by numerous examples on theoretical objects deformed by active and passive deformation, on BSE images of synthetic magma flow, on drawing or direct analysis of thin section pictures of sandstones and on digital images of granites directly taken and measured in the field. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.