Severity of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at intersections: A Bayesian hierarchical analysis

Most crash severity studies ignored severity correlations between driver-vehicle units involved in the same crashes. Models without accounting for these within-crash correlations will result in biased estimates in the factor effects. This study developed a Bayesian hierarchical binomial logistic model to identify the significant factors affecting the severity level of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at signalized intersections. Crash data in Singapore were employed to calibrate the model. Model fitness assessment and comparison using Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) ensured the suitability of introducing the crash-level random effects. Crashes occurring in peak time, in good street lighting condition, involving pedestrian injuries are associated with a lower severity, while those in night time, at T/Y type intersections, on right-most lane, and installed with red light camera have larger odds of being severe. Moreover, heavy vehicles have a better resistance on severe crash, while crashes involving two-wheel vehicles, young or aged drivers, and the involvement of offending party are more likely to result in severe injuries.

Modeling fault among motorcyclists involved in crashes

Singapore crash statistics from 2001 to 2006 show that the motorcyclist fatality and injury rates per registered vehicle are higher than those of other motor vehicles by 13 and 7 times respectively. The crash involvement rate of motorcyclists as victims of other road users is also about 43%. The objective of this study is to identify the factors that contribute to the fault of motorcyclists involved in crashes. This is done by using the binary logit model to differentiate between at-fault and not-at-fault cases and the analysis is further categorized by the location of the crashes, i.e., at intersections, on expressways and at non-intersections. A number of explanatory variables representing roadway characteristics, environmental factors, motorcycle descriptions, and rider demographics have been evaluated. Time trend effect shows that not-at-fault crash involvement of motorcyclists has increased with time. The likelihood of night time crashes has also increased for not-at-fault crashes at intersections and expressways. The presence of surveillance cameras is effective in reducing not-at-fault crashes at intersections. Wet road surfaces increase at-fault crash involvement at non-intersections. At intersections, not-at-fault crash involvement is more likely on single lane roads or on median lane of multi-lane roads, while on expressways at-fault crash involvement is more likely on the median lane. Roads with higher speed limit have higher at-fault crash involvement and this is also true on expressways. Motorcycles with pillion passengers or with higher engine capacity have higher likelihood of being at-fault in crashes on expressways. Motorcyclists are more likely to be at-fault in collisions involving pedestrians and this effect is higher at night. In multi-vehicle crashes, motorcyclists are more likely to be victims than at fault. Young and older riders are more likely to be at-fault in crashes than middle-aged group of riders. The findings of this study will help to develop more targeted countermeasures to improve motorcycle safety and more cost-effective safety awareness program in motorcyclist training.

An investigation on multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes using log-linear models

Motorcyclists are the most crash-prone road-user group in many Asian countries including Singapore; however, factors influencing motorcycle crashes are still not well understood. This study examines the effects of various roadway characteristics, traffic control measures and environmental factors on motorcycle crashes at different location types including expressways and intersections. Using techniques of categorical data analysis, this study has developed a set of log-linear models to investigate multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes in Singapore. Motorcycle crash risks in different circumstances have been calculated after controlling for the exposure estimated by the induced exposure technique. Results show that night-time influence increases crash risks of motorcycles particularly during merging and diverging manoeuvres on expressways, and turning manoeuvres at intersections. Riders appear to exercise more care while riding on wet road surfaces particularly during night. Many hazardous interactions at intersections tend to be related to the failure of drivers to notice a motorcycle as well as to judge correctly the speed/distance of an oncoming motorcycle. Road side conflicts due to stopping/waiting vehicles and interactions with opposing traffic on undivided roads have been found to be as detrimental factors on motorcycle safety along arterial, main and local roads away from intersections. Based on the findings of this study, several targeted countermeasures in the form of legislations, rider training, and safety awareness programmes have been recommended.

Road safety in Singapore

Singapore is a highly developed country that has a well connected island-wide road transport system including a network of expressways. The road standards of Singapore are generally good and road safety level is very high by international standards. This chapter discusses road safety status in Singapore and highlights the practices that have been undertaken to enhance the road safety. Statistics show that road traffic fatalities were decreasing over the years, albeit an increasing trend for total crashes. Motorcyclists and pedestrians were two vulnerable road user groups and shared significant proportions respectively about 49% and 28% of total road traffic deaths. In particular, young riders and pedestrians had a higher crash potential. To enhance safety of those vulnerable road users, Singapore has taken several initiatives including infrastructure improvements like paving better skid-resistant materials at crash-prone sites, providing more rain shelters for motorcyclists, and installation of reflective signs and markings near school zones; safety campaigns and awareness programs like ride safe programme, the road courtesy campaign, and the anti-drink drive campaign. While Land Transport Authority (LTA) looks into road safety through engineering solutions and road infrastructure developments, the Traffic Police of Singapore is responsible for law enforcements and regulations. A number of non-government organizations, private companies, and university research groups are also continuously working with the Traffic Police to study, promote, and educate the general public on road safety matters.

An estimate of road accident costs in Singapore

An earlier study by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) showed that the annual cost of road traffic accidents in 2001 was S$699.36 million which was 0.5% of the annual GDP. This paper attempts to update of the cost estimates of road traffic accidents. More precise methods of computing the human cost, lost output and property damage are adopted which grew in an annual cost of S$610.3 million or 0.338% of the annual GDP in 2003. A more conservative estimate of S$878,000 for fatal accident is also obtained, compared to the earlier figure of S$1.4 million. This study has shown that it is necessary to update the annual traffic accident costs regularly, as the figures vary with the number of accidents which change with time.

Modeling random effect and excess zeros in road traffic accident prediction

Poisson distribution has often been used for count like accident data. Negative Binomial (NB) distribution has been adopted in the count data to take care of the over-dispersion problem. However, Poisson and NB distributions are incapable of taking into account some unobserved heterogeneities due to spatial and temporal effects of accident data. To overcome this problem, Random Effect models have been developed. Again another challenge with existing traffic accident prediction models is the distribution of excess zero accident observations in some accident data. Although Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model is capable of handling the dual-state system in accident data with excess zero observations, it does not accommodate the within-location correlation and between-location correlation heterogeneities which are the basic motivations for the need of the Random Effect models. This paper proposes an effective way of fitting ZIP model with location specific random effects and for model calibration and assessment the Bayesian analysis is recommended.

Developing targeted countermeasures to improve motorcycle safety

The fatality and injury rate of motorcyclists per registered vehicle are higher than those of other motor vehicles by 13 and 7 times respectively. The crash involvement rate of motorcyclists as a victim party is 58% at intersections and as an offending party is 67% at expressways. Previous research efforts showed that the motorcycle safety programs are not very effective in improving motorcycle safety. This is perhaps due to inefficient design of safety program as specific causal factors may not be well explored. The objective of this study is to propose more sophisticated countermeasures and awareness programs for improving motorcycle safety after analyzing specific causal factors for motorcycle crashes at intersections and expressways. Methodologically this study applies the binary logistic model to explore the at-fault or not-at-fault crash involvement of motorcyclists at those locations. A number of explanatory variables representing roadway characteristics, environmental factors, motorcycle descriptions, and rider demographics have been evaluated. Results shows that the night time crash occurrence, presence of red light camera, lane position, rider age, licence class, and multivehicle collision significantly affect the fault of motorcyclists involved in crashes at intersections. On the other hand, the night time crash occurrence, lane position, speed limit, rider age, licence class, engine capacity, riding with pillion passenger, foreign registered motorcycles, and multivehicle collision has been found to be significant at expressways. Legislate to wear reflective clothes and using reflective markings on the motorcycles and helmets are suggested as an effective countermeasure for reducing their vulnerability. The red light cameras at intersections reduce the vulnerability of motorcycles and hence motorcycle flow and motorcycle crashes should be considered during installation of red light cameras. At signalized intersections, motorcyclists may be taught to follow correct movement and queuing rather than weaving through the traffic as it leads them to become victims of other motorists. The riding simulators in the training centers can be useful to demonstrate the proper movement and queuing at junctions. Riding with pillion passenger and excess speed at expressways are found to significantly influence the at at-fault crash involvement of the motorcyclists. Hence the motorcyclists should be advised to concentrate more on riding while riding with pillion passenger and encouraged to avoid excess speed at expressways. Very young and very older group of riders are found to be at-fault than middle aged groups. Hence this group of riders should be targeted for safety improvement. This can be done by arranging safety talks and programs in motorcycling clubs in colleges and universities as well as community riding clubs with high proportion of elderly riders. It is recommended that the driving centers may use the findings of this study to include in licensure program to make motorcyclists more aware of the different factors which expose the motorcyclists to crash risks so that more defensive riding may be needed.

Sustainability in road transport : an integrated life cycle analysis for estimating emissions

Despite of a significant contribution of transport sector in the global economy and society, it is one of the largest sources of global energy consumption, green house gas emissions and environmental pollutions. A complete look onto the whole life cycle environmental inventory of this sector will be helpful to generate a holistic understanding of contributory factors causing emissions. Previous studies were mainly based on segmental views which mostly compare environmental impacts of different modes of transport, but very few consider impacts other than the operational phase. Ignoring the impacts of non-operational phases, e.g., manufacture, construction, maintenance, may not accurately reflect total contributions on emissions. Moreover an integrated study for all motorized modes of road transport is also needed to achieve a holistic estimation. The objective of this study is to develop a component based life cycle inventory model which considers impacts of both operational and non-operational phases of the whole life as well as different transport modes. In particular, the whole life cycle of road transport has been segmented into vehicle, infrastructure, fuel and operational components and inventories have been conducted on each component. The inventory model has been demonstrated using the road transport of Singapore. Results show that total life cycle green house gas emissions from the road transport sector of Singapore is 7.8 million tons per year, among which operational phase and non-operational phases contribute about 55% and about 45%, respectively. Total amount of criteria air pollutants are 46, 8.5, 33.6, 13.6 and 2.6 thousand tons per year for CO, SO2, NOx, VOC and PM10, respectively. From the findings, it can be deduced that stringent government policies on emission control measures have a significant impact on reducing environmental pollutions. In combating global warming and environmental pollutions the promotion of public transport over private modes is an effective sustainable policy.

Impact of garment industries on road safety in metropolitan Dhaka

There are about 4,000 garment industries in Bangladesh, most of them are clustered in and around the capital city. Together they account for 75 percent of the country's export earnings and employ around 1.8 million people which is almost one half of the total industrial workforce of the country. Though it is the most important economy sector of Bangladesh, unplanned and haphazardly built garment factories are also inducing many social, housing and most importantly urban transportation problems which are a great cause of concern. This study investigates the impact of garment industries on transportation, in particular road safety issues of garment workers. Data is collected to identify the locational problems of garment factories, spatial distribution of worker residences, and their travel pattern as well as to assess their walking and road crossing problems. Finally, recommendations are put forward to tackle transport problems arising from these unplanned establishments of export oriented garments industries in Dhaka Metropolitan City.

Empirical IEEE 802.11p performance evaluation on test tracks

IEEE 802.11p is the new standard for inter-vehicular communications (IVC) using the 5.9 GHz frequency band; it is planned to be widely deployed to enable cooperative systems. 802.11p uses and performance have been studied theoretically and in simulations over the past years. Unfortunately, many of these results have not been confirmed by on-tracks experimentation. In this paper, we describe field trials of 802.11p technology with our test vehicles. Metrics such as maximum range, latency and frame loss are examined.

The Road to Whatever: Middle Class Cultgure and the Crisis of Adolescence

In this groundbreaking book, acclaimed sociologist and Pulitzer Prize finalist Elliott Currie draws on years of interviews to offer a profound investigation of what has gone wrong for so many “mainstream” American adolescents. Rejecting such predictable answers as TV violence, permissiveness, and inherent evil, Currie links this crisis to a pervasive “culture of exclusion” fostered by a society in which medications trump guidance and a punitive “zero tolerance” approach to adolescent misbehavior has become the norm. Broadening his inquiry, he dissects the changes in middle-class life that stratify the world into "winners" and "losers," imposing an extraordinarily harsh culture—and not just on kids. Vivid, compelling, and deeply empathetic, The Road to Whatever is a stark indictment of a society that has lost the will—or the capacity—to care.

Towards the development of a gas sensor system for monitoring pollutant gases in the low troposphere using small unmanned aerial vehicles

The world is facing problems due to the effects of increased atmospheric pollution, climate change and global warming. Innovative technologies to identify, quantify and assess fluxes exchange of the pollutant gases between the Earth’s surface and atmosphere are required. This paper proposes the development of a gas sensor system for a small UAV to monitor pollutant gases, collect data and geo-locate where the sample was taken. The prototype has two principal systems: a light portable gas sensor and an optional electric–solar powered UAV. The prototype will be suitable to: operate in the lower troposphere (100-500m); collect samples; stamp time and geo-locate each sample. One of the limitations of a small UAV is the limited power available therefore a small and low power consumption payload is designed and built for this research. The specific gases targeted in this research are NO2, mostly produce by traffic, and NH3 from farming, with concentrations above 0.05 ppm and 35 ppm respectively which are harmful to human health. The developed prototype will be a useful tool for scientists to analyse the behaviour and tendencies of pollutant gases producing more realistic models of them.

Sustainable Road Management in Texas : network-level flexible pavement structural condition analysis using data mining techniques

The research team recognized the value of network-level Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) testing to evaluate the structural condition trends of flexible pavements. However, practical limitations due to the cost of testing, traffic control and safety concerns and the ability to test a large network may discourage some agencies from conducting the network-level FWD testing. For this reason, the surrogate measure of the Structural Condition Index (SCI) is suggested for use. The main purpose of the research presented in this paper is to investigate data mining strategies and to develop a prediction method of the structural condition trends for network-level applications which does not require FWD testing. The research team first evaluated the existing and historical pavement condition, distress, ride, traffic and other data attributes in the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) Pavement Maintenance Information System (PMIS), applied data mining strategies to the data, discovered useful patterns and knowledge for SCI value prediction, and finally provided a reasonable measure of pavement structural condition which is correlated to the SCI. To evaluate the performance of the developed prediction approach, a case study was conducted using the SCI data calculated from the FWD data collected on flexible pavements over a 5-year period (2005 – 09) from 354 PMIS sections representing 37 pavement sections on the Texas highway system. The preliminary study results showed that the proposed approach can be used as a supportive pavement structural index in the event when FWD deflection data is not available and help pavement managers identify the timing and appropriate treatment level of preventive maintenance activities.

Road trauma perceptions and the potential influence of the media

The United Nations Decade of Action for Road Safety (2011-2020) recognises the urgency of addressing global road trauma. Road crashes and attempts to reduce risky driving, including public education campaigns, receive media attention in many countries. In Australia, road fatalities have declined significantly. However, the extent of awareness about this success and of fatalities overall is unclear. A survey of 833 Australian drivers revealed the majority of participants under-estimated fatalities. Unexpectedly, some under-estimates appear based on recollections of media reports. The findings suggest lack of awareness of the extent of road deaths and that, paradoxically, media reports might contribute to underestimations. This represents a major public health challenge. Engaging community support for road safety, relative to other health/safety messages, may prove difficult if the extent of road trauma is misunderstood. Misperceptions about fatality levels may be a barrier to road users adopting safety precautions or supporting further road safety countermeasures.