Nominal Debt as a Burden on Monetary Policy

We study the effects of nominal debt on the optimal sequential choice of monetary policy. When the stock of debt is nominal, the incentive to generate unanticipated inflation increases the cost of the outstanding debt even if no unanticipated inflation episodes occur in equilibrium. Without full commitment, the optimal sequential policy is to deplete the outstanding stock of debt progressively until these extra costs disappear. Nominal debt is therefore a burden on monetary policy, not only because it must be serviced, but also because it creates a time inconsistency problem that distorts interest rates. The introduction of alternative forms of taxation may lessen this burden, if there is enough commtiment to fiscal policy. If there is full commitment to an optimal fiscal policy, then the resulting monetary policy is the Friedman rule of zero nominal interest rates.

Stable isotope ecology of Miocene large mammals from Sandelzhausen, southern Germany

The carbon, oxygen, and strontium isotope composition of enamel from teeth of large Miocene herbivorous mammals from Sandelzhausen (MN5, late Early/early Middle Miocene) in the North Alpine foreland basin, were analyzed to infer diet and habitat. The mean enamel delta(13)C value of -11.4 +/- 1.0% (n = 53) for the nine taxa analyzed (including proboscideans, cervids, suids, chalicotheres, equids, rhinocerotids) indicates a pure C(3) plant diet for all mammals. (87)Sr/(86)Sr ratios of similar to 0.710 higher than those from teeth of the western Molasse Basin (0.708-0.709) seem to indicate preferential feeding of the mammals in the northeastern Molasse Basin. The sympatric herbivores have different mean delta(13)C and delta(18)O values which support diet partitioning and/or use of different habitats within a C(3) plant ecosystem. Especially the three sympatric rhinoceroses Plesiaceratherium fahlbuschi, Lartetotherium sansaniense, and Prosantorhinus germanicus show clear partitioning of plants and/or habitats. The palaeomerycid Germanomeryx fahlbuschi was a canopy folivore in moderately closed environments whereas Metaschizotherium bavaricum (Chalicotheriidae) and P. germanicus (Rhinocerotidae) were browsers in more closed forest environments. The horse Anchitherium aurelianense was probably a more generalized feeder than assumed from its dental morphology. The forest hog Hyotherium soemmeringi has the highest delta(13)C and lowest delta(18)O value of all analyzed taxa, possibly related to a frugivorous diet. Most taxa were water-dependent browsers that record meteoric water delta(18)O values of about -5.6 +/- 0.7% Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water (VSMOW). Using a modern-day mean annual air temperature (MAT)-delta(18)OH(2)O relation a MAT of 19.3 +/- 1.5 degrees C can be reconstructed for Sandelzhausen. A Gomphotherium subtapiroideum tusk serially sampled for delta(18)O values does not record a clear pattern of seasonality. Thus most taxa were C(3) browsers in a forested and humid floodplain environment in the Molasse Basin, which experienced a warm-temperate to subtropical climate and possibly low seasonality.

Biotic and abiotic variables show little redundancy in explaining tree species distributions

Abiotic factors such as climate and soil determine the species fundamental niche, which is further constrained by biotic interactions such as interspecific competition. To parameterize this realized niche, species distribution models (SDMs) most often relate species occurrence data to abiotic variables, but few SDM studies include biotic predictors to help explain species distributions. Therefore, most predictions of species distributions under future climates assume implicitly that biotic interactions remain constant or exert only minor influence on large-scale spatial distributions, which is also largely expected for species with high competitive ability. We examined the extent to which variance explained by SDMs can be attributed to abiotic or biotic predictors and how this depends on species traits. We fit generalized linear models for 11 common tree species in Switzerland using three different sets of predictor variables: biotic, abiotic, and the combination of both sets. We used variance partitioning to estimate the proportion of the variance explained by biotic and abiotic predictors, jointly and independently. Inclusion of biotic predictors improved the SDMs substantially. The joint contribution of biotic and abiotic predictors to explained deviance was relatively small (similar to 9%) compared to the contribution of each predictor set individually (similar to 20% each), indicating that the additional information on the realized niche brought by adding other species as predictors was largely independent of the abiotic (topo-climatic) predictors. The influence of biotic predictors was relatively high for species preferably growing under low disturbance and low abiotic stress, species with long seed dispersal distances, species with high shade tolerance as juveniles and adults, and species that occur frequently and are dominant across the landscape. The influence of biotic variables on SDM performance indicates that community composition and other local biotic factors or abiotic processes not included in the abiotic predictors strongly influence prediction of species distributions. Improved prediction of species' potential distributions in future climates and communities may assist strategies for sustainable forest management.

The role of gene duplication in the origin and evolution of new biological functions

Abstract : Gene duplication is an essential source of material for the origin of genetic novelty and the evolution of lineage- or species-specific phenotypic traits. The reverse transcription of source gene mRNA followed by the genomic insertion of the resulting cDNA - retroposition - has provided the human genome with a significant number of gene copies during the last ~63 million years (MYA) of primate evolution. We estimated that at least 1 new functional gene (retrogene) per MYA emerged by retroposition in the primate lineage leading to humans. Using a combination of comparative sequencing and evolutionary simulations, we obtained strong evidence of functionality for 7 primate specific retrogenes. Most of these genes are specifically expressed in testis suggesting that retroposition has contributed with genetic raw material necessary for the evolution ofmale-specific functions in primates. We characterized CDC14Bretro (identified in the previous survey) that originated from the retroposition of a cell cycle gene - CDC14B - in the common ancestor of humans and apes. We demonstrate that CDC14Bretro experienced a period of intense positive selection in the African ape ancestor. By virtue of the amino acid substitutions that occurred during this period CDC 14Bretro adapted to a new subcellular compartment in African apes. Further analyses indicate that this subcellular shift reflects the evolution of anew functional role of CDC 14Bretro. Prompted by this result, we used yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) to investigate on a global scale the extent of functional diversification of duplicate genes through the subcellular adaptation of their encoded proteins. We found that duplicate proteins frequently evolved new cellular localization patterns, either by partitioning of ancestral localizations ("sublocalization"), or more frequently by relocalization to previously unoccupied compartments ("neolocalization"). Interestingly, proteins involved in processes with a wider subcellular distribution more frequently evolved new localization patterns suggesting that subcellular localization changes are dependent on progenitor gene functions. Relocated proteins adapted to their new subcellular environments and evolved new functional roles through changes of their physio-chemical properties, expression levels, and interaction partners. Our work suggests an important role of subcellular adaptation for the emergence of new gene functions.

The value of useless information

There are many situations in which individuals have a choice of whether or notto observe eventual outcomes. In these instances, individuals often prefer to remainignorant. These contexts are outside the scope of analysis of the standard vonNeumann-Morgenstern (vNM) expected utility model, which does not distinguishbetween lotteries for which the agent sees the final outcome and those for which hedoes not. I develop a simple model that admits preferences for making an observationor for remaining in doubt. I then use this model to analyze the connectionbetween preferences of this nature and risk-attitude. This framework accommodatesa wide array of behavioral patterns that violate the vNM model, and thatmay not seem related, prima facie. For instance, it admits self-handicapping, inwhich an agent chooses to impair his own performance. It also accommodatesa status quo bias without having recourse to framing effects, or to an explicitdefinition of reference points. In a political economy context, voters have strictincentives to shield themselves from information. In settings with other-regardingpreferences, this model predicts observed behavior that seems inconsistent witheither altruism or self-interested behavior.

Estimating overidentified, nonrecursive, time-varying coefficients structural VARs

This paper provides a method to estimate time varying coefficients structuralVARs which are non-recursive and potentially overidentified. The procedureallows for linear and non-linear restrictions on the parameters, maintainsthe multi-move structure of standard algorithms and can be used toestimate structural models with different identification restrictions. We studythe transmission of monetary policy shocks and compare the results with thoseobtained with traditional methods.

Measuring time-varying economic fears with consumption-based stochastic discount factors

This paper analyzes empirically the volatility of consumption-based stochastic discount factors as a measure of implicit economic fears by studying its relationship with future economic and stock market cycles. Time-varying economic fears seem to be well captured by the volatility of stochastic discount factors. In particular, the volatility of recursive utility-based stochastic discount factor with contemporaneous growth explains between 9 and 34 percent of future changes in industrial production at short and long horizons respectively. They also explain ex-ante uncertainty and risk aversion. However, future stock market cycles are better explained by a similar stochastic discount factor with long-run consumption growth. This specification of the stochastic discount factor presents higher volatility and lower pricing errors than the specification with contemporaneous consumption growth.

Splitting rivers at their seams: bifurcations and avulsion

River bifurcations are critical but poorly understood elements of many geomorphological systems. They are integral elements of alluvial fans, braided rivers, fluvial lowland plains, and deltas and control the partitioning of water and sediment through these systems. Bifurcations are commonly unstable but their lifespan varies greatly. In braided rivers bars and channels migrate, split and merge at annual or shorter timescales, thereby creating and abandoning bifurcations. This behaviour has been studied mainly by geomorphologists and fluid dynamicists. Bifurcations also exist during avulsion, the process of a river changing course on a floodplain or in a delta, which may take 102103 years and has been studied mainly by sedimentologists. This review synthesizes our current understanding of bifurcations and brings together insights from different research communities and different environmental settings. We consider the causes and initiation of bifurcations and avulsion, the physical mechanisms controlling bifurcation and avulsion evolution, mathematical and numerical modelling of these processes, and the possibility of stable bifurcations. We end the review with some open questions. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Competition, innovation and growth with limited commitment

We study how barriers to business start-up affect the investment in knowledge capital when contracts are not enforceable. Barriers to business start-up lower the competition for knowledge capital and, in absence of commitment, reduce the incentive to accumulate knowledge. As a result, countries with large barriers experience lower income and growth. Our results are consistent with cross-country evidence showing that the cost of business start-up is negatively correlated with the level and growth of income.

Driver scheduling problem modelling

The Drivers Scheduling Problem (DSP) consists of selecting a set of duties for vehicle drivers, for example buses, trains, plane or boat drivers or pilots, for the transportation of passengers or goods. This is a complex problem because it involves several constraints related to labour and company rules and can also present different evaluation criteria and objectives. Being able to develop an adequate model for this problem that can represent the real problem as close as possible is an important research area.The main objective of this research work is to present new mathematical models to the DSP problem that represent all the complexity of the drivers scheduling problem, and also demonstrate that the solutions of these models can be easily implemented in real situations. This issue has been recognized by several authors and as important problem in Public Transportation. The most well-known and general formulation for the DSP is a Set Partition/Set Covering Model (SPP/SCP). However, to a large extend these models simplify some of the specific business aspects and issues of real problems. This makes it difficult to use these models as automatic planning systems because the schedules obtained must be modified manually to be implemented in real situations. Based on extensive passenger transportation experience in bus companies in Portugal, we propose new alternative models to formulate the DSP problem. These models are also based on Set Partitioning/Covering Models; however, they take into account the bus operator issues and the perspective opinions and environment of the user.We follow the steps of the Operations Research Methodology which consist of: Identify the Problem; Understand the System; Formulate a Mathematical Model; Verify the Model; Select the Best Alternative; Present the Results of theAnalysis and Implement and Evaluate. All the processes are done with close participation and involvement of the final users from different transportation companies. The planner s opinion and main criticisms are used to improve the proposed model in a continuous enrichment process. The final objective is to have a model that can be incorporated into an information system to be used as an automatic tool to produce driver schedules. Therefore, the criteria for evaluating the models is the capacity to generate real and useful schedules that can be implemented without many manual adjustments or modifications. We have considered the following as measures of the quality of the model: simplicity, solution quality and applicability. We tested the alternative models with a set of real data obtained from several different transportation companies and analyzed the optimal schedules obtained with respect to the applicability of the solution to the real situation. To do this, the schedules were analyzed by the planners to determine their quality and applicability. The main result of this work is the proposition of new mathematical models for the DSP that better represent the realities of the passenger transportation operators and lead to better schedules that can be implemented directly in real situations.

Optimal taxation without state-contingent debt

To recover a version of Barro's (1979) `random walk'tax smoothing outcome, we modify Lucas and Stokey's (1983) economyto permit only risk--free debt. This imparts near unit root like behaviorto government debt, independently of the government expenditureprocess, a realistic outcome in the spirit of Barro's. We showhow the risk--free--debt--only economy confronts the Ramsey plannerwith additional constraints on equilibrium allocations thattake the form of a sequence of measurability conditions.We solve the Ramsey problem by formulating it in terms of a Lagrangian,and applying a Parameterized Expectations Algorithm tothe associated first--order conditions. The first--order conditions andnumerical impulse response functions partially affirmBarro's random walk outcome. Though the behaviors oftax rates, government surpluses, and government debts differ, allocationsare very close for computed Ramsey policies across incomplete and completemarkets economies.

Pollinator guild organization and its consequences for reproduction in three synchronopatric species of Tibouchina (Melastomataceae)

Pollinator guild organization and its consequences for reproduction in three synchronopatric species of Tibouchina (Melastomataceae). In co-flowering plant species, pollinator sharing can result in interspecific pollen transfer and fecundity reduction. Competition will be relaxed whenever there is a large amount of initial pollen supply or if each plant species occupies different habitat patches. Reproduction in Tibouchina cerastifolia (Naudin) Cogn., T. clinopodifolia (DC.) Cogn. and T. gracilis (Bonpl.) Cogn. was studied in an area of Atlantic rainforest to examine whether synchronopatry induces time partitioning among pollinator species. Eleven bee species comprised the pollinator guild. Among pollinators, there were overlaps in bee species composition and in flower visitation time. Direct competition for pollen in Tibouchina Aubl. at the study site seems to lead to different activity periods among the bee species, in which Bombus pauloensis Friese,1913 was most active earlier, while the other species were active later in the day. Bombus pauloensis, the largest bee species recorded on Tibouchina flowers, was the most important and efficient pollinator. This species harvested pollen before the other species and had the shortest handling time. The plants reproduced sexually by selfing or outcrossing, and hybridization was not avoided by incompatibility reactions at the style. The avoidance of direct competition for pollen and no pollinator partitioning among the synchronopatric species of Tibouchina may reflect a facilitative interaction among these pioneer plants.

Nominal debt as a burden on monetary policy

We study the effects of nominal debt on the optimal sequential choice of monetary policy. When the stock of debt is nominal, the incentive to generate unanticipated inflation increases the cost of the outstanding debt even if no unanticipated inflation episodes occur in equilibrium. Without full commitment, the optimal sequential policy is to deplete the outstanding stock of debt progressively until these extra costs disappear. Nominal debt is therefore a burden on monetary policy, not only because it must be serviced, but also because it creates a time inconsistency problem that distorts interest rates. The introduction of alternative forms of taxation may lessen this burden, if there is enough commtiment to fiscal policy. If there is full commitment to an optimal fiscal policy, then the resulting monetary policy is the Friedman rule of zero nominal interest rates.

Geographical and temporal body size variation in a reptile: roles of sex, ecology, phylogeny and ecology structured in phylogeny.

Geographical body size variation has long interested evolutionary biologists, and a range of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the observed patterns. It is considered to be more puzzling in ectotherms than in endotherms, and integrative approaches are necessary for testing non-exclusive alternative mechanisms. Using lacertid lizards as a model, we adopted an integrative approach, testing different hypotheses for both sexes while incorporating temporal, spatial, and phylogenetic autocorrelation at the individual level. We used data on the Spanish Sand Racer species group from a field survey to disentangle different sources of body size variation through environmental and individual genetic data, while accounting for temporal and spatial autocorrelation. A variation partitioning method was applied to separate independent and shared components of ecology and phylogeny, and estimated their significance. Then, we fed-back our models by controlling for relevant independent components. The pattern was consistent with the geographical Bergmann's cline and the experimental temperature-size rule: adults were larger at lower temperatures (and/or higher elevations). This result was confirmed with additional multi-year independent data-set derived from the literature. Variation partitioning showed no sex differences in phylogenetic inertia but showed sex differences in the independent component of ecology; primarily due to growth differences. Interestingly, only after controlling for independent components did primary productivity also emerge as an important predictor explaining size variation in both sexes. This study highlights the importance of integrating individual-based genetic information, relevant ecological parameters, and temporal and spatial autocorrelation in sex-specific models to detect potentially important hidden effects. Our individual-based approach devoted to extract and control for independent components was useful to reveal hidden effects linked with alternative non-exclusive hypothesis, such as those of primary productivity. Also, including measurement date allowed disentangling and controlling for short-term temporal autocorrelation reflecting sex-specific growth plasticity.