Density forecasts of crude-oil prices using option-implied and ARCH-type models

The predictive accuracy of competing crude-oil price forecast densities is investigated for the 1994–2006 period. Moving beyond standard ARCH type models that rely exclusively on past returns, we examine the benefits of utilizing the forward-looking information that is embedded in the prices of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well as for regions and intervals that are of special interest for the economic agent. We find that non-parametric adjustments of risk-neutral density forecasts perform significantly better than their parametric counterparts. Goodness-of-fit tests and out-of-sample likelihood comparisons favor forecast densities obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:727–754, 2011

Nonprofit leaders and for-profit entrepreneurs:similar people with different motivation

Today's market conditions require nonprofit leaders to act in an increasingly business-like fashion. This study asks whether NPO leaders have a similar disposition to act entrepreneurially as for-profit entrepreneurs, but hold different underlying motives. For this purpose, the study contrasts a sample of 72 leaders of nonprofit organizations with 117 entrepreneurs on their personality traits and explicit motives using standard personality tests and interviews. Both groups exhibit similar general and entrepreneurship-specific personality traits but differ significantly regarding their motivation. While nonprofit leaders' motivation stems primarily from the meaningfulness of their work; entrepreneurs are mainly motivated by the independence as well as by the income and profit provided by their work. This paper helps us understand who leaders of nonprofit organizations are.

Optimising market share and profit margin:SMDP-based tariff pricing under the smart grid paradigm

Smart grid technologies have given rise to a liberalised and decentralised electricity market, enabling energy providers and retailers to have a better understanding of the demand side and its response to pricing signals. This paper puts forward a reinforcement-learning-powered tool aiding an electricity retailer to define the tariff prices it offers, in a bid to optimise its retail strategy. In a competitive market, an energy retailer aims to simultaneously increase the number of contracted customers and its profit margin. We have abstracted the problem of deciding on a tariff price as faced by a retailer, as a semi-Markov decision problem (SMDP). A hierarchical reinforcement learning approach, MaxQ value function decomposition, is applied to solve the SMDP through interactions with the market. To evaluate our trading strategy, we developed a retailer agent (termed AstonTAC) that uses the proposed SMDP framework to act in an open multi-agent simulation environment, the Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC). An evaluation and analysis of the 2013 Power TAC finals show that AstonTAC successfully selects sell prices that attract as many customers as necessary to maximise the profit margin. Moreover, during the competition, AstonTAC was the only retailer agent performing well across all retail market settings.

Wind power forecasts using Gaussian processes and numerical weather prediction

Since wind at the earth's surface has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safe and economic use of wind energy. In this paper, we investigated a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: a Gaussian process (GP) combined with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model was applied to wind-power forecasting up to one day ahead. First, the wind-speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP, then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due to the turbine controlling strategy, wind power forecasts were realized by modeling the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output using a censored GP. To validate the proposed approach, three real-world datasets were used for model training and testing. The empirical results were compared with several classical wind forecast models, and based on the mean absolute error (MAE), the proposed model provides around 9% to 14% improvement in forecasting accuracy compared to an artificial neural network (ANN) model, and nearly 17% improvement on a third dataset which is from a newly-built wind farm for which there is a limited amount of training data. © 2013 IEEE.

Profit, productivity and price performance changes in the water and sewerage industry:an empirical application for England and Wales

This paper aims to analyse the impact of regulation in the financial performance of the Water and Sewerage companies (WaSCs) in England and Wales over the period 1991–2008. In doing so, a panel index approach is applied across WaSCs over time to decompose unit-specific index number-based profitability growth as a function of the profitability, productivity and price performance growth achieved by benchmark firms, and the catch up to the benchmark firm achieved by less productive firms. The results indicated that after 2000 there is a steady decline in average price performance, while productivity improves resulting in a relatively stable economic profitability. It is suggested that the English and Welsh water regulator is now more focused on passing productivity benefits to consumers, and maintaining stable profitability than it was in earlier regulatory periods. This technique is of great interest for regulators to evaluate the effectiveness of regulation and companies to identify the determinants of profit change and improve future performance, even if sample sizes are limited.

Profit, fenntarthatóság és etika

A nagy német filozófus, Martin Heidegger szerint a modern technológia sodorja végveszélybe az emberi és természeti létezést. A modern technológia ökológiai és etikai veszélyessége kétségtelen, azonban csak a modern vállalati működés segítségével fejti ki a hatásait. A profit-hajszoló modern vállalatok azok, amelyek veszélyeztetik a természeti ökoszisztémák integritását és biológiai sokféleségét, a helyi közösségek autonómiáját és kultúráját, valamint a jövő generációk életesélyeit. A tanulmányban a profit-maximalizálás kritikáját vázoljuk fel, és a gazdasági racionalitás egy átfogó, ökológiai és etikai értelmezését adjuk. Nem a profit eltörléséről van szó, hanem a kíméletlen profit-hajszolás megregulázásáról. A profit a gazdasági cselekvés jogos és természetes gyümölcse, ha az azt létrehozó tevékenység fenntartható és etikus módon megy végbe.

Nagyobb változatosság, több profit. A termékvariánsok számának növelése mint a profitmaximalizálás eszköze

A tanulmány azt a kérdést vizsgálja egy duopólium modellben, hogy egy termelőnek érdemes-e lényegében ugyanazt a terméket több formában, differenciáltan piacra dobnia. A modell ebben a csupasz formájában csak igen korlátozott mértékben épít a játékosok közti interakciókra, egy egyszer˝u szimultán döntési folyamatot ábrázol, azt is statikus környezetben. Az elemzés azt mutatja, hogy a keresleti paraméterek bizonyos értékei mellett még akkor is érdemes új, az eddigiektől eltérő tulajdonságú, differenciált termék piacra vitele, ha annak ára nem tér el a már korábban bevezetett terméktől, és így annál önmagában nem tekinthet˝o nagyobb nyereséget biztosítónak. Az a tény, hogy egy vállalat több differenciált termékvariánst árusít, arra vezet, hogy a korábbi egyensúlyi helyzethez képest kedvezőbb pozícióba kerül, mint a versenytársa.

Profit és/vagy közösségi szerepvállalás? Vállalati társadalmi felelősségvállalás vezetői szemmel

A vállalati társadalmi felelősségvállalás (CSR – corporate social responsibility) fogalma és menedzsmenteszköztára nem ismeretlen a hazai gazdasági életben, díjak, konferenciák, felmérések kapcsolódnak hozzá évről évre. A szerző dolgozatában először röviden elemzi a vállalati társadalmi felelősségvállalás elméleti megközelítéseiben a menedzserek szerepét kiemelő irányokat, majd a felelősségvállalás tartalmára vonatkozóan címszavakban bemutat néhány meghatározó elképzelést, amelyek a vizsgálati kérdések alapjait is adják. Ezt követi a kutatási eredmények bemutatása, majd a további kutatási lehetőségeket is tartalmazó konklúzió.

Factors that differentiate persistence beyond the first session at a for-profit university

An increasing number of students are selecting for-profit universities to pursue their education (Snyder, Tan & Hoffman, 2006). Despite this trend, little empirical research attention has focused on these institutions, and the literature that exists has been classified as rudimentary in nature (Tierney & Hentschke, 2007). The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors that differentiated students who persisted beyond the first session at a for-profit university. A mixed methods research design consisting of three strands was utilized. Utilizing the College Student Inventory, student’s self-reported perceptions of what their college experience would be like was collected during strand 1. The second strand of the study utilized a survey design focusing on the beliefs that guided participants’ decisions to attend college. Discriminant analysis was utilized to determine what factors differentiated students who persisted from those who did not. A purposeful sample and semi-structured interview guide was used during the third strand. Data from this strand were analyzed thematically. Students’ self-reported dropout proneness, predicted academic difficulty, attitudes toward educators, sense of financial security, verbal confidence, gender and number of hours worked while enrolled in school differentiated students who persisted in their studies from those who dropped out. Several themes emerged from the interview data collected. Participants noted that financial concerns, how they would balance the demands of college with the demands of their lives, and a lack of knowledge about how colleges operate were barriers to persistence faced by students. College staff and faculty support were reported to be the most significant supports reported by those interviewed. Implications for future research studies and practice are included in this study.

Three essays on corporate governance and meeting-beating or missing analyst forecasts

The beginning of the 21st century was plagued with unprecedented instances of corporate fraud. In an attempt to address apparent non-existent or “broken” corporate governance policies, sweeping measures of financial reporting reform ensued, having specific requirements relating to the composition of audit committees, the interaction between audit committees and external auditors, and procedures concerning auditors’ assessment of client risk. The purpose of my dissertation is to advance knowledge about “good” corporate governance by examining the association between meeting-or-beating analyst forecasts and audit fees, audit committee compensation, and audit committee tenure and “busyness”. Using regression analysis, I found the following: (1) the frequency of meeting-or-just beating (just missing) analyst forecasts is negatively (positively) associated with audit fees, (2) the extent by which a firm exceeds analysts’ forecasts is positively (negatively) associated with audit committee compensation that is predominately equity-based (cash-based), and (3) the likelihood of repeatedly meeting-or-just beating analyst forecasts is positively associated with audit committee tenure and “busyness”. These results suggest that auditors consider clients who frequently meet-or-just beat forecasts as being less “risky”, and clients that frequently just miss as being more “risky”. The results also imply that cash-based director compensation is more successful in preserving the effectiveness of the audit committee’s financial reporting oversight role, that equity-based compensation motivates independent audit committee directors to focus on short-term performance thereby aligning their interests with management, and that audit committee director tenure and the degree of director “busyness” can affect an audit committee member’s effectiveness in providing financial reporting oversight. Collectively, my dissertation provides additional insights regarding corporate governance practices and informs policy-makers for future relevant decisions.^

Characterizing Poor Performance in For-Profit and Not-for-Profit Food Service Operations

In this article the authors explore the performance-related employee behaviors that are the most troublesome in food service. Four subsegments of food service were surveyed and differences in profit and not-for-profit operations analyzed. Significant differences were found between the two groups, with for-profit operations indicating more severe problems in all but one behavior category.

Placement for Profit: Menu Item Arrangement on Customer-Activated Computer Screens

Can profitable menu items be placed on a computer screen where they will be selected more readily than other items? The author examines whether printed menu theories and techniques can be applied, with the same results, to a computer menu screen

Monitoring the Accuracy of Multiple Occupancy Forecasts

Corporate executives closely monitor the accuracy of their hotels' occupancy fore- casts since important decisions are based upon these predictions. This study lists the criteria for selecting an appropriate error measure. It discusses several evaluation methods focusing on statistical significance tests and demonstrates the use of two adequate evaluation methods: Mincer- Zamowitz's efficiency test and Wilcoxon's Non-Parametric Matched-Pairs Signed- Ranks test.

Essays in book -tax income differences and analyst forecasts /recommendations

Prior research suggests that book-tax income differences (BTD) relate to both firms' earnings quality and operating performance. In this dissertation, I explore whether and how financial analysts signal the implications of BTD efficiently. This dissertation is comprised of three essays on BTD. The three essays seek to develop a better understanding of how financial analysts utilize information reflected in BTD (derived from the ratio of taxable income to book income). The first essay is a review and discussion of prior research regarding BTD. The second essay of this dissertation investigates the role of BTD in indicating the consensus and dispersion of analyst recommendations. I find that sell recommendations are positively related to BTD. I also document that analyst coverage has a positive effect on the standard deviation of consensus recommendations with respect to BTD. The third essay is an empirical analysis of analysts' forecast optimism, analyst coverage, and BTD. I find a negative association between forecast optimism and BTD. My results are consistent with a larger BTD being associated with less forecast bias. Overall, I interpret the sum of the evidence as being consistent with BTD reflecting information about earnings quality, and consistent with analysts examining and using this information in making decisions regarding both forecasts and recommendations.